Bearmarket
Bitcoin Uptrend Retest & Rejections#Bitcoin is under very critical zone now a days and mostly moving around $26.5k to $27.5k, while many times it rejects for uptrends and retest for #BearishZone of FWB:25K -24k but majority of chances, between 20 may to 20 June 2023, BITCOIN will be under #BearishZone of $24k to $22k and then FWB:21K - $19k too....
DISCLAIMER-
It's not any #FA, its just proposal as on chart analysis and previous market trends with public sentiments. for better results always #DYOR.
Nifty 50 Visualizer is BEARISH!⚠️Attached: Nifty 50 Daily Chart as of 19th April 2023
In the above Nifty 50 Visualizer Chart, I want you to pay attention to 3 things:
1) Trend Lines
2) Fibonacci Retracement
3) RSI
This is quite a Self Explanatory Chart but for those who don't get it, here are a few points for explanation:
- Notice how Price has reacted around the Trend Lines and the Marked Arrows indicating the same
- Price has stalled at 0.5 Fib Retracement of the Decline that started in December 2022
- Daily RSI has failed to surpass the 65 level, within the territory of a Bear Market Rally
Based on the above weight of evidence,
Price can potentially see a Decline back down to the Next Trend Line Support which also coincides with the Unfilled Gap Area
Nifty May be a Nasha, but Sensex is the Sober Reality!Attached: BSE Sensex Daily Chart as of 25th April 2023
Yes you read the Title of this Post correct, to put it simply:
Nifty is Deceptive but the Sensex is Truthful
In the above BSE Sensex 30 Chart,
we see that Price is facing Resistance at the Channel Trend Line drawn from the December 2022 High. There are presently 3 touch points already for the Channel and today marks the 4th touch point. So the Trend Down is still maintained going by this and NO Valid Breakout has taken place.
While if I look at NSE Nifty 50 Chart,
I cannot spot any such Channel that connects the Highs to give such a clean picture like the Sensex is currently giving us.
So the Question is:
Nifty or Sensex: Which Stock Index Should You Trust?
My Answer:
Trust the Truthful Sensex
Nasdaq 100- Rising Wedge BREAKDOWN!Attached: Nasdaq 100 CFD Daily Live Chart as of 25th April 2023
Was waiting for a quite a while for this to play out and it finally has today in the Nasdaq
Price formed a Distribution Pattern and today we are finally getting the Breakdown
MACD also in Sell Mode
13k Level is Lost and below 12800 it is a Confirmed Breakdown. This has BEARISH Implications, a Top in Place to say!
Market Internals still Under Pressure!CNX500 Relative Strength
Attached: Nifty 500/ Nifty 50 Daily Chart as of 21st April 2023
This Ratio Chart is NOT supportive of a Bull/ Risk On phase for the Broad Market. The 500 stocks are likely to Underperform while the 50 stocks are likely to Outperform.
What does this mean you ask?
In simple Layman terms,
it means Index Nifty 50 will be MANAGED (propped up) by Heavyweights that make up approx. 50-60% of Nifty 50's Weightage
while Under the Hood Selling in Rest of the Market will continue as the ones which are in Down Trends are unlikely to see a Trend Reversal
Nifty 50 will Deceive you into thinking it is a Bull Market while the Market Internals suggest otherwise!
(Note: This is an update to an Old Related Idea titled: 'Market Internals suggest WEAKNESS' but for some reason Trading View platform is not allowing me to update that Idea with this updated Chart I have prepared. Hence, I have created this as a Separate Post)
HCLTECH- Bears in Control!Attached: HCLTECH Daily Price Chart Live Market as of 20th April 2023
Pay attention to the following:
1) Formation of a Double Top/ Distribution Pattern
2) A Leading Diagonal Structure marked as ABCDE , so a 3rd Wave Down can play out
3) The Elliot Wave marking signaling end of (B) Wave and (C) Wave Down pending
IT Sector is the Weakest already and there are clear Headwinds from a Fundamental standpoint for IT Stocks
HCL Technologies has Earnings today so you can expect some Big Move on the Short Side
TITAN- Relative Strength says SELL!Attached: Titan/ Nifty 50 Daily Chart Live Market Hours as of 18th April 2023
The Ratio Chart signals that TITAN has completed Wave A/ 1 and done a retracement in Wave 2/ B and now the 3rd Wave/ C Wave Down is to Start
This implies that on a Relative Basis, TITAN is likely to MASSIVELY Underperform Nifty 50 Index
Today Titan is also One of the Top Losers from the Nifty 50 Index Top 20 Heavyweights
So as they Sell Weakness and Buy Strength
Hence, Look for Short Opportunities in Titan
Nifty IT= THE SECTOR TO AVOID FOR INVESTORS!⚠️FIRST THE TECHNICAL VIEW
Attached: Nifty IT Index Weekly Chart as of 13th April 2023
In the Chart above, I have mapped out the Potential Elliot Wave Count to play out over the coming Months:
- Price has fallen in 3 Waves which is our Larger A Wave
- Then Price did a Corrective bounce in an ABCDE structure making up our Larger B Wave
- And now the Larger C Wave Down in the form of an Impulse is about to start/ has already started!
I have 2 Downside Targets🎯 based on the Elliot Wave Count:
T1= 23400 to 22700 (which is C = 0.618 of A)
T2= 18350 to 17750 (which is C = A)
This implies an approx. 19% decline📉 for Target 1 and a 36% decline📉 for Target 2, from Current Market Price😨
NOW, THE FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Regarding IT Stocks from an Investor's Stand Point, it is going to be the DIRTY FISH💩🐟 of the Pond and can potentially Spoil the Whole Pond as well
Irrespective of whether it is a Bull Market or a Bear Market for Broad Market Stocks.
IT Index is set for New Lows and Infosys is Leading it on the Downside
As an Analogy for the Indian Market:
Remember how Auto Sector was in 2018? TOP out
how Pharma was in 2015? TOP out
IT is the same now in a Bear Market🐻🩸. Fundamental Reasons:
- US Recession
- Wage Inflation (IT Co. main cost is Employees), Lay Offs, Etc.
- De Dollarization (aka USD Crash hurts Dollar Revenue of these IT Companies)
I suggest if you have any Investments in IT Stocks Sell Them Off✅
You will get better Value in Other Sectors✅
This is a SECTOR SPECIFIC View for INVESTORS!⚠️
Sell call at 4000, naukri - infoedgeinfoedge or naukri can be sold by selling call (CE) at 4000.
Rationale: Weak tech and weak nasdaq, unjustified recent rally in Infoedge. Current P/E ratio is 60, ideal P/E for naukri is 30.
Target for infoedge / naukri (immediate): 3000
None of my previous targets on tradingview have missed, including report on Adani.
Purely fundamental analysis. Price action makes no sense in such scrips.
INFOSYS ALMOST GOING BEARISH Infosys almost going bearish in sometimes as it may be said that infosys may start to breakout any time soon. Best way is to keep an eye on it. Those who are planning to buy should wait more time as this stock is still in fallout mode. For long term investors, hold till december or march.
Disclaimer*- Everyone has different entitled opinions, better study the stock trend.
Market Internals suggest WEAKNESSCNX500 Relative Strength
Attached: Nifty 500/ Nifty 50 Daily Chart as of 21st March 2023
- I am watching this Ratio Chart to turn down after Retesting a Confluence Zone
- Its looking Bearish currently post a Rising Wedge breakdown and Three Black Crows candlestick pattern
- It signals Weakness in the Broad Market relative to the Index.
- This Chart had Topped out in Sept 2022 and since then there has been Under the Hood Selling in the Market.
This is a Leading Indicator of the Broad Market Strength/ Weakness
And comes under the Study of Intermarket Analysis
SGX NIFTY- Anchored VWAP Detailed Analysis!Attached: SGXNIFTY Daily Live Market Chart as of 24th March 2023 (post 12:00 AM)
I am sharing this to bring to your attention the following points:
1. Price is currently consolidating below a Cluster of Anchored VWAPs (labelled on the chart). These same AVWAPs have acted as support in the past, see from where Price had rallied off in Oct 2022 for example
2. Price is also consolidating in the Lower Half of the Falling Trend Channel drawn from the Dec 2022 Highs
3. 16800 is the Make or Break Level using the Law of Polarity (labelled on the chart)
So when Price breaks⚠️ down these 3 Confluences, expect the 🐻Bear Market/ Bear Trend📉 to ACCELERATE 🩸!
And that will then Open the AVWAP Downside Targets🎯 as follows:
T1= 16400
T2= 15800
T3= 15300
Also these are the Very Same Downside Targets that I have been calling for when Nifty was trading at 18000 in the first week of Jan 2023.
In addition to all of this you would also notice my Elliot Wave marking for the B Wave false breakout to New Highs. We are in Wave C of a Bear Market presently.
Best,
Siddharth Bhansali
Nasdaq 100- Double TOP!Attached: Nasdaq 100 Daily Live Price Chart as of 28th March 2023
Pretty Straightforward Chart:
- Price rejects for the 2nd time at 0.382 Fib, this is a Double TOP Sell Signal
- Elliot Wave Count shows Corrective Bounce complete in form of WXYXZ with C wave of Z being an Ending Expanding Diagonal
- Price puts in a Higher High but RSI puts in a Lower High, aka Divergence
Holding below the round figure level of 13000,
the Nasdaq (NDQ) is a SHORT
for a Downside Target= 11700 & below...
TITAN- Hidden Bearish Divergence SELL!Attached: TITAN Daily Price Chart as of 22nd March 2023
Price has triggered a SELL Signal today on account of the following reasons:
1) Hidden Bearish RSI Divergence as RSI puts in a Higher High but Price puts in a Lower High
2) Price has come back to Retest a Prior Support Zone which now can act as Resistance
3) Dow Theory Structure of Lower Highs and Lower Lows still intact so it is a Down Trend and NO Trend Reversal yet
4) Elliot Wave Count suggest Price is ready to start Wave Z down of its complex correction
Our Plan of Action is:
Short at Current Market Price= 2508
Stop Loss > 2550
for Downside Target Open to 2270
Bank Nifty- Bearish HARMONIC Trouble!Attached: BankNifty Weekly Chart as of 17th March 2023
A Bearish Anti Gartley Pattern had got activated in Bank Nifty
on the 23rd Jan Weekly Candle Sell Off (Big Red Candle that caused a 5%+ decline)
Since then there has been a follow up as Price continues to make Lower Highs and Lower Lows as evident in the Weekly Candles that have followed
This Week's Candle has also closed below the round figure mark of 40,000
Conclusion:
BankNifty is in a Bear Market just like Nifty 50 (see my other ideas for the same)
HOLDING BELOW 43,000
A DOWNSIDE TARGET of ~ 34,000 in the Bank Nifty is Open
Nifty 50 False Breakout CONFIRMED!Attached: Nifty 50 Weekly Chart as of 17th March 2023
This Week's Candle has Closed below the Trend Line drawn from the October 2021 Highs, after having broken out above that same Trend Line back in October 2022
So Price went from giving a Breakout to New Highs of 18,887 in Nov 2022 to slipping back below 18,000 and now it is back below the Very Important Trendline of Oct 2021
This is a Signature of a Classic False Breakout or what you may call a BULL Trap !
The Chart is as simple as it can be for you to understand with the Trend Lines and the Arrows
There is a saying in Technical Analysis:
"From False Moves come Fast Moves in the Opposite Direction"
So Expect the Bear Market in Nifty 50 to Unfold from here
Downside Targets are Now Open for:
1) September 2022 Lows to Breaks
2) June 2022 Lows to be Challenged Next
Mana coin-Downside flag breakoutMana coin is making a flag pattern in 4h timeframe.The flag once broke out earlier,now it is retesting from the trendline and can fall downside to the next support.If high volume bear candles form on the chart,then a short trade can be initiated downside.Supports are marked there on the chart.
NIFTY: Wait and Grab the Perfect opportunityThe rise from the Mar'20 bottom was an impulsive move which should be considered as the Primary Degree Wave-1 concluded near the zone of 18600 in Oct'21. From that top Nifty50 fell down in a corrective way and made a low of 15183 in Jun'22. This fall was not even reached to Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level positioned at 14400 zone where the previous fourth of 1 lesser degree is also placed and we have seen a rise in the Nifty to test the all time high and made a new high of 18887 in Nov'22. The rise from the bottom of 15183 is more or like a corrective rise and can be treated as part of FLAT CORRECTION (expanded Flat) or a part of COMPLEX WXY correction. As per this view Nifty is likely to hold below 19000 and fall towards 16750 /14400 and 13000 level in the coming months. The nature of the fall will decide whether we are in a C-Wave of a FLAT or we are in a Y-Wave of a COMPLEX WXY correction.
As soon we reach in the zone of 14400-13000 which is the Fibonacci 38.2%-50% retracement zone we can consider that area as the long term investment zone as our Primary Wave-2 is going to conclude in that area and we should be ready for a massive THIRD WAVE RALLY in the Indian Equity market. Remember Third Waves are the "WONDER TO BEHOLD".