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Beyond Technical Analysis

How to define the Daily Bias for the Day? Determining the likely direction of the market for a particular day can be both challenging and cumbersome. Many traders find themselves overwhelmed by the multitude of data points and differing indicators. However, using a structured methodology, one can systematically analyze the chart and create a daily bias for the day. If you are an intraday trader, you can use a combination of the Daily chart for the bias and the 15-minute chart for the entry, or alternatively, you can use a 75-minute chart for the bias and a 5-minute chart for the entry. Steps to Identify the Daily Bias 1. Identify the Most Recent Swing High and Swing Low The first step in defining the daily bias involves identifying the most recent swing high and swing low. This can be done manually, or you can use ready-made indicators available on trading platforms such as TradingView to plot these points on the chart. Understanding swing highs and lows are fundamental concepts in technical analysis, representing the highest and lowest points within a specific time period. These points can indicate potential reversal areas where the market may change direction. 2. Divide the Region into Two Equal Parts Once the swing high and swing low are identified, the next step is to divide this region into two equal parts. This can be achieved using the rectangle tool in TradingView. Make sure to enable the middle line feature within the rectangle tool to visually divide the two sections. The middle line acts as a crucial reference point, providing a clear visual boundary between areas of perceived higher and lower value. 3. Define Retail and Wholesale Areas After dividing the region into two parts, the upper section is termed the “Retail Area,” where prices are considered expensive. Conversely, the lower section is called the “Wholesale Area,” where prices are deemed cheap. This concept stems from the basic economic principle of supply and demand, where higher prices in the Retail Area suggest selling opportunities, and lower prices in the Wholesale Area indicate buying opportunities. 4. Focus on Buying and Selling Opportunities With the areas defined, the next step is to focus on the appropriate trading opportunities. When prices are in the Retail Area, the focus should be on “Selling” opportunities. When prices are in the Wholesale Area, the focus should be on “Buying” opportunities. This methodology, known as “Curve Analysis” or determining your Bias for the day, simplifies the decision-making process by providing a clear framework for evaluating market conditions. Example: BankNifty 75-Minute Chart Let’s look at an example to understand this better. Here we have the BankNifty 75-minute chart. We have identified the most recent swing high and swing low on the chart and divided the section into two parts. The current market price is in the Wholesale Area, which means that on your execution time frame, which is 5 minutes, you will be focusing on buying or “Long” opportunities. Now, proceed to the lower time frame and identify your key levels of interest using support, resistance, demand, supply, or any other technical analysis tools. Observe how the supply zone on the chart played out beautifully and how prices fell from the Retail Area. This example illustrates the practical application of the methodology, demonstrating how historical price movements can inform future trading decisions. While the above steps provide a solid foundation for defining the daily bias, incorporating the following advanced tips can enhance your trading efficiency: 1. Use Multiple Time Frames Integrate multiple time frames to gain a comprehensive view of the market. For example, use the Daily chart to determine the overall bias and the 15-minute or 5-minute chart for precise entries and exits. This multi-time frame analysis allows traders to align shorter-term trades with the broader market trend, increasing the likelihood of successful outcomes. 2. Incorporate Technical Indicators Employ technical indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, and MACD to corroborate your bias. Confirming signals from multiple sources can provide greater confidence in your trades. These indicators serve as additional tools to validate the defined bias, offering insights into market momentum, overbought or oversold conditions, and potential trend reversals. 3. Monitor Economic News Stay updated with economic news and events that could influence market movements. Important news releases can cause significant price fluctuations, impacting your defined bias. Economic indicators, such as GDP reports, employment data, and central bank announcements, can have profound effects on market sentiment and price action. 4. Practice Risk Management Always practice sound risk management strategies. Define your risk tolerance levels and use stop-loss orders to protect your capital. Never risk more than you can afford to lose on any single trade. Effective risk management involves setting appropriate position sizes, diversifying trades, and adhering to pre-defined risk parameters to safeguard against unforeseen market movements. 5. Keep a Trading Journal Maintain a trading journal to record your trades, strategies, and outcomes. Analyzing past trades can help you refine your methodology and improve future performance. A detailed journal provides valuable insights into trading patterns, strengths, and areas for improvement, fostering continuous learning and development. Conclusion Defining the daily bias for the day is crucial for successful intraday trading. By following the structured steps of identifying swing highs and lows, dividing the price region into Retail and Wholesale areas, and focusing on appropriate buying and selling opportunities, traders can streamline their market analysis. Remember to use multiple time frames, incorporate technical indicators, stay informed about economic news, practice risk management, and maintain a trading journal. With these strategies in place, you can effectively navigate the markets and enhance your trading performance. I hope you all find this article useful. Do give your valuable feedback in the comments section.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by VishalSubandh
4
HDFC - DIRT CHEAP BLUECHIP HDFC is down for unknown reasons. HDFC reported terrific quarterly numbers and is poised to hold no 1 position in the banking sector in India. Why i will heavily invest in HDFC at this price point: the expected dividend income will beat the interest rates of FD done in the bank :) The bank's EPS should grow appreciably in the large cap bucket as it will continue to generate more cash flows over time Think this is a great time to buy for the long term. Have initiated bulk buys at this zone Buy and forget!!
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by aditya_biswas
Why You Miss Winners and Hold Losers?One of the most common frustrations traders face is missing out on stocks that rally while being stuck with stocks that barely move. Why does this happen? It often boils down to impulsive decision-making. Here’s the scenario: You enter a trade based on your analysis. The stock doesn’t move as expected, while the market or other stocks start rallying. The fear of missing out (FOMO) kicks in. Impulsively, you jump to another stock that’s already moving. Ironically, the stock you just left often starts to move right after you exit. The issue isn’t the stock; it’s the lack of patience and trust in your initial analysis. You forget why you took the trade in the first place and chase momentum without a clear plan. Why Does This Happen? 1. Emotional Trading: Watching others make money triggers emotional decisions, not rational ones. 2. Lack of Conviction: If your trade idea isn’t well-thought-out, it’s easy to second-guess yourself. 3. Overtrading: Constantly shifting between stocks leads to missed opportunities and losses. How to Fix It: 1. Set Clear Trade Plans: Define your entry, exit, and stop-loss levels before taking a trade. Stick to them unless market conditions genuinely change. 2. Build Patience: Good trades take time to play out. Trust your analysis. (MOST IMPORTANT POINT) 3. Track Decisions: Maintain a trading journal to evaluate why you entered or exited trades. The key is to stop reacting to the noise of the market and focus on your process. Patience, discipline, and a clear strategy separate successful traders from the rest. Follow me for more such trading content!!!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by keshevdugar
DIXON - SHORTShort Dixon up to 16,000 Targets: 14,325, 13,720 Stop Loss: 16,500 Note: This is a slightly risky trade on short futures or buying Puts, as the majority of the price movement has already occurred today. The stock may consolidate for a while before making any further significant moves. Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:DIXONShort
by parthsharma_999
Newgen in Blue Sky.NSE:NEWGEN showed a strong upmove today Crossed Key Levels and Hit an all-time high, with RSI bouncing back Sharply again. Trade Setup: It can be a Good 1:1 RISK-REWARD Trade for Aggressive Swing Trader. For Postional Trade let it cool down a bit and then try to enter at swing low. Target(Take Profit): 1977 will be Levels for Swing/Positional Trader. Stop-Loss: Around 1534.15 For Swing Trade and Positional Trader. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FLLOW for more 👍BOOST if useful ✍️COMMENT Below your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas below until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:NEWGENLong
by Karanshah137
4
Buying Opportunity in Axis Bank??Quartey Result Outlook In Q3FY25, Axis bank reported a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in Net Interest Income (NII), reaching INR 136,059 million. The Bank reported a Pre-Provisioning Operating Profit of INR 105,339 Mn for the quarter, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.2%, although there was a slight decline of 1.7% quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by improvements in operating efficiencies. In Q3FY25, net profit experienced a year-over-year increase of 3.8%, reaching INR 63,038 million. The slight increase can be attributed mainly to elevated provisions amounting to INR 21,556 Mn for the quarter. The operating performance aligned with our expectations; however, increased provisions led to an earnings shortfall relative to our estimates. The increase in slippages for Q3FY25 can be attributed mainly to the retail segment, where there is noticeable stress in unsecured loans, particularly personal loans and credit cards. Axis bank is systematically addressing slippage risk by implementing improved portfolio monitoring, establishing early warning triggers, and adjusting risk policies accordingly. The estimates for book value in FY26E and FY27E have been reduced by 2.3% and 4.0%, respectively, due to the potential for increased provisions and limited business growth. Source: Moneycontrol Technicals The price of Axis bank has fallen sharply in the recent weeks. The stock price has fallen below all the key EMA levels (20, 50, 100, 200). It has strong support around 986 levels Resistance levels: 1093, 1186, 1273, 1339 Verdict: Most of the analysts have given positive rating with at least 20% upside in the stock price.
NSE:AXISBANKLong
by shanmurali
Bank Nifty: Dynamic Trendline Resistance and Support BreakdownChart Description: Dynamic Resistance: Highlight the descending trendline acting as a strong resistance. Mark recent rejection points from this line. Dynamic Support: Add the upward-sloping support line showing recent price bounces. Key Levels: 47600: Potential target if support breaks, indicating a bearish continuation. 47600: Swing low zone, which could act as a short-term target in the bear trend. Bearish Breakdown: Indicate potential price action if the dynamic support is breached, targeting levels below 47500. Risk Management: Add possible stop-loss placement near the trendline resistance for short positions. Idea Summary: Watch for price rejection at the dynamic trendline resistance. A breakdown of the dynamic support line will signal a bearish move. Target levels: 47600 (swing low) and below 47500 in case of extended bearish momentum. Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Perform your due diligence or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by JoanJagan