Beyond Technical Analysis
Reliance below 200dma Stay cautiousElon musk launched many satellites , if star link gets successful can be desruptive to telecom and internet services ,indian government may support indian companies because they do not want other players to come in however they support indian big players but still we can see amazon in indian market despite challenges faced, MI phones in indian markets ,
we know what happened to fmnl when amazon was into retail , and we another side who opposed amazon
but amazon is also a gaint
so clash of gaints guys
but government cannot ban outside companies because we are not china we have fair ground little bit advantage to big players
we can see what happened to micro max , when mi came
manufacturing in india is not always there on their own because we lack innovation most of the time
we can see almost every big company tie ups with another foregin company to set up plants etc
so if starlink we get connection directly from satellites can it be stopped from reaching people?
just like what happened to idea?
and we know how much politicians oppose they all eventually get sold
even one State in india they enter with free wifi and calling etc
Is this the reason for fall in reliance?
Lic kept 1 lakh Crore to Buy if fiis sell till now fiis sold for 75,000 cr and retailers sip they say it is 24,000 cr last month
and most of retailer sip comes from atal pension ,
life insurances etc
so if telecom gets disruptive Idea itself is posting minus -30,000 cr per year
till now more than -180,000 cr
so is inflation going to rise or more taxes in india to cover this?
or govt removed band width purchase because idea no longer can afford it?
Disclaimer - not an investment idea or call just my view and opinion trade at your own risk
The Great Debate: Which PD Array is the Best?There’s been an ongoing debate across social media platforms about which PD array is the best in the PD Arrays matrix. Influencers have taken sides, with some giving more attention to certain arrays, claiming they’ve mastered it better than others. You’ve probably seen posts like "OB > FVG" or "FVG > everything" floating around.
But let’s be real here, the names behind these claims aren’t worth mentioning, because it only adds more attention to those chasing the hype. The real credit belongs to ICT, the mind behind these concepts. So let’s redirect our focus to where it belongs.
Which PD Array Is Actually the Best?
Take a good look at the PD Array matrix again.
Now, if you truly understand the PD array matrix, you wouldn’t be asking, “Which is the best?” The answer is literally in front of you.
Here’s a little tip: The arrays are listed in a specific order, and that order is crucial. They’re designed to form in the sequence you see in the matrix.
Food for Thought
Instead of me flat-out telling you which PD array is the top dog, let’s do a little mental exercise that will help you figure it out yourself. Ready?
Imagine you're a market maker. You’re getting ready to enter a short position, and naturally, you're greedy. You want maximum returns as quickly as possible. The question is: Which premium array would you pick for placing your orders in the most efficient way, ensuring you make the most money in the shortest time?
Think about it. The answer should be obvious now.
Got it? Perfect. Now you know which PD array might have the edge over others. It’s not about someone else telling you - it’s about understanding the logic behind how they work and how they fit into the bigger picture.
Final Thoughts
Thank you for taking the time to dive into this topic with me. I hope this post got your mind working in the right direction. And remember, understanding the PD Array matrix is more important than chasing whatever’s trending online. The more you think critically about these concepts, the better your trading decisions will be.
See you again soon with another post filled with more valuable insights!
All we need is just one concept... AUDUSD bearish...Greetings fellow traders!
I was originally bullish on AUDUSD, until I hit consistent stops on my longs which pushed me to check higher timeframes for clarity and bias . I really love the Purge and Revert concept as it's easy to spot and trade. The 2022 model combined with P&R...
Trading is simple, but not easy . The more we complicate it, the tougher it gets.
Have an insightful trading week ahead!
Disclaimer- All content is for educational purposes only and not trading advice.
EUR/AUD ENTER after confirmation only do not rush the trade use proper stoploss
You
TRENDLINE BREAKOUT
Watching for trendline breakouts can be a thrilling part of trading. When the price breaks through a trendline, it can signal the start of a new trend or a significant move.
Here's what to look out for:
Volume Spike: A high volume can confirm the breakout.
Retest: Sometimes, the price comes back to test the broken trendline before continuing in the breakout direction. This retest can be a good entry point.
Other Indicators: Combine with other technical indicators like RSI or MACD for additional confirmation.
51800 CE Entry around 100, SL - Low, Target 300+For a bullish scenario to play out Calls must respect their call buying zones created on 14-Oct-24 ( Yesterday ) Reference chart 51800 CE Entry around 100, SL - Lows, Target 300+
Ready To Break Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern- BullishThe stock has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is a strong bullish reversal signal. The price has consistently respected the neckline around 1600, and a breakout above this level will confirm a potential rally toward higher targets. The stock is on the verge of breaking out from a multi-month downtrend resistance line. This is a key level to watch, as a breakout above the 1600 zone would likely lead to a sharp upward move. The breakout would confirm that sellers have been exhausted, and buyers are now taking control.
The key level to watch is 1600 as this is the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. A close above this level, accompanied by strong volume, could push the stock toward the next target of 1650 followed by 1800. The completion of this pattern would likely attract traders, as inverted head and shoulders formations are widely recognized in technical analysis. A breakout would signal a major trend reversal, leading to a potential strong rally.
16 Oct 2024 - Nifty Predictions (Next Trading Day)1. Index Chart and Time Frames
Index: Nifty 50
Date: October 15, 2024
Time Frames:
Weekly (1W)
Monthly (1M)
Daily (1D)
5-Minute (5)
2. Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels:
Daily: Approximately 25,000
Weekly: Approximately 24,800
Resistance Levels:
Daily: Approximately 25,200
Weekly: Approximately 26,200
3. Market Scenario for Next Trading Day
Expected Gap Likely to open flat or with a slight gap down based on recent price action.
Market Trend Range-bound to slightly bearish.
Timing Initial volatility in the morning, potentially stabilizing in the afternoon.
4. Options Strategies for Next Trading Day
Specific Strategies:
Bull Put Spread: If the market shows signs of holding above support.
Bear Call Spread: If resistance levels are tested and rejected.
Strikes:
For Bull Put Spread: Sell 25,000 and buy 24,800.
For Bear Call Spread: Sell 25,200 and buy 25,400.
5a. Calendar Spread Strategy
Strikes for Calendar Spread:
Daily: 25,000
Weekly: 25,200
Monthly: 25,500
5b. Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Trends
Daily Slightly Bearish Support: 25,000, Resistance: 25,200
Weekly Bullish (but testing resistance) Support: 24,800, Resistance: 26,200
Monthly Bullish Support: 24,500, Resistance: 26,500
6. Trading Recommendations for ATM, ITM, OTM
ATM Trade Morning session
ITM Don't Trade All day
OTM Trade (with caution) Afternoon session
Conclusion
The analysis suggests a cautious approach for the next trading day, focusing on support and resistance levels. Adjust your strategies based on real-time market movements and news.
Disclaimer : Do Manage your Risk and Money management, Do not Forget to PUT STOP LOSS.
BANKNIFTY 1HRINTRADAY TRADE
TRADE FOR OPTION BUYERS..
- EARN WITH ME DAILY 10K-20K –
BANKNIFTY Looking good for upside..
When it break level 51897 and sustain.. it will go upside...
BUY@ 51897
Target
1st 52264
2nd 52546
FNO
BANKNIFTY OCT FUT – LOT 9 (Qty-135)
BANKNIFTY OCT 51800 CE – LOT 1 (Qty-15) – PRICE (757.10)
Enjoy trading traders.. Keep add this STOCK in your watch list..
Big Investor are welcome..
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Technical Analysis DOESN'T WORK anymore?"Does this really predict the market, or are we reading too much into it?"
Technical Analysis is useless – Here's Why You Shouldn't Buy Into the Hype
I've been in the trading world long enough to know one thing: technical analysis isn’t the holy grail that many claim it to be.
Sure, charts, patterns, and indicators look fancy, and they give the illusion of certainty. But here’s the harsh reality: Markets don’t care about your patterns.
If technical analysis worked the way it’s advertised, wouldn’t everyone be making easy money? The truth is, the market moves based on emotions, macroeconomic factors, and real-world events—not lines drawn on a chart.
Successful traders don't rely on perfect predictions, they rely on managing their risk, adapting to market conditions, and learning from their losses.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s great for understanding market sentiment to some extent, but if you’re betting your portfolio on head-and-shoulders patterns or the RSI alone, you’re in for a rude awakening.
In the end, trading is about experience, discipline, and understanding human psychology. That’s where the real edge is.
#stockmarket
Chalet hotels BASE of 10 months (Whats Brewing ) Hope you’re doing well!
The VCP trader is back with a new idea. The attached chart is of Chalet Hotels, and as we can see, there’s a solid base formation on the daily timeframe—this base has been developing for 10 months.
As VCP traders, our task after identifying the base is to spot the three legs of the pattern. The three legs of the VCP are marked on the chart, and we are currently on the third leg. Additionally, we’ve spent some time consolidating near the top, which is a positive sign. I expect Chalet Hotels to break out from this base within a month, potentially hitting new all-time highs as indicated on the chart. These targets are calculated based on the height of the base.
Another encouraging sign is the volume contraction visible from the left side of the chart to the right. This indicates that the stock has been resting and is now preparing for a momentum phase.
Keep an eye on the point of control (marked by the blue line); if the stock falls below this level, the idea will be invalidated. The anticipated targets are the round number of 1000, followed by 1050, and finally 1100.
That’s all for now. Until next time!
That VCP Trader
Crude Oil Chart Pattern for 15 Oct 2024Crude faces heavy selling after breaking support as predicted in my last idea and same for the cuurent scenario again it comes to crucial level of support may be we can see minor pullback to zone of 72.300 to 600 and then selling of more than 2.5 to 3% ,let's see how its going to move today.
TRADING IS A SCAM?“Trading is worse than gambling, isn’t it?” You’ve probably heard this thrown around by skeptics, or maybe even thought it yourself. Combine that with the SEBI data that says 99% of traders lose money and it seems like a closed case, right? Wrong.
This statistic has been thrown around like a blanket warning: “Don’t trade. It’s not worth it!”
But have you ever wondered why 99% lose? The truth is, very few of these critics know why. The problem isn't that trading is rigged or impossible—it’s that people don’t treat it the way they should.
Trading is both a Sport and a Business
Let me explain.
First, trading is a sport—one that requires immense skill, discipline, and practice. Just like an athlete trains for years to perfect their craft, successful traders spend time mastering the game. They analyze patterns, study the markets, and hone their strategies. Unfortunately, many people jump into trading without realizing this. They expect instant results, treating the market like a slot machine rather than a skill-based competition. And when they lose, they blame the system instead of their lack of preparation.
Now, trading is also a business. Every trade is a decision backed by data, analysis, and risk management—just like every business decision. No successful entrepreneur opens a business without a plan, a market understanding, and a strategy for scaling. Yet, most people approach trading with no blueprint. They don’t track their performance, learn from mistakes, or adjust their strategy when necessary. The market punishes them, just like it punishes any business that lacks a clear plan.
The Missing Ingredients: Preparation and Discipline
Imagine a football player who never trains or a business owner who never reviews their books—failure is inevitable. Similarly, most traders lose because they don’t have a proper process. They ignore risk management, avoid learning from their mistakes, and treat the market like a get-rich-quick scheme.
The ones who succeed? They embrace the sport, the discipline, and the business side of trading. They take small losses like athletes take defeats—learning experiences that sharpen their edge. They treat each trade like a calculated business risk, knowing that long-term consistency is what leads to success.
Conclusion: Change Your Mindset
The next time you hear someone say, “99% of traders lose money,” remember this: the real reason people lose is because they don’t approach trading the way it should be—like a sport to be mastered and a business to be managed. Trading is not gambling. It’s a test of discipline, skill, and strategy. The 1% who succeed know this—and that’s why they win.
#stockmarkets
Primefocus HUGE BASE OF 18 years is about to break.Hi there,
VCP Trader here again!
Hope you're having a great day. Have you ever witnessed a stock double or even triple in value? I’m sure you have! But have you ever wondered what drives such massive returns?
While fundamentals and earnings certainly play a role, I’m here to shed light on the technical side of things.
Take a look at the monthly chart of Prime Focus. The base started forming in 2006, and after 18 long years, it’s now sitting right at the top of this base in 2024. This long-term base formation is just one key factor, but how it's formed is equally important.
As illustrated in the chart, you can spot three distinct legs of the stock, with the price contracting from left to right. It's almost as if the stock has run out of room within the base. What excites me the most is the consolidation right before a potential breakout—right at the top of the base.
I believe this stock is poised for a 100% gain, and I expect it to begin its upward movement from the current zones. My target for the stock is 275.
Note: This idea will be invalidated only if we see a monthly candle closing below the third leg of the Volatility Contraction Pattern.
— That VCP Trader
Sarthak Metals LTD: A Comprehensive Technical AnalysisToday, Sarthak Metals LTD exhibited significant price movement, experiencing a bullish increase of 15%. The trading volume reached approximately 875,000 shares, which is more than ten times the stock's average daily trading volume. This unusual activity is a strong indicator of heightened investor interest and market engagement. This pattern can be observed on the previous chart, during which the stock reached its all-time high.
The stock managed to close above its key EMAs, specifically the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs. This convergence of price closure above these critical indicators suggests a potential trend reversal or a continuation of an upward trend. The ability to surpass these EMAs may provide a layer of support for future price movements.
The RSI and the MACD indicators are both displaying bullish signals. The RSI, which currently indicates the stock is in a favourable buying zone, reflects strong upward momentum. Concurrently, the MACD line crossing above the signal line further reinforces the bullish sentiment in the market for Sarthak Metal.
Should a breakout occur above the current trendline resistance, I could anticipate further positive momentum and upward movement, with the next target resistance identified at 299 . Conversely, the current support level is noted at 162 , providing a reference point for potential downside risk.
Disclaimer: The insights provided in this technical analysis report are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. This information should not be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. It is paramount to consult with a qualified financial advisor and conduct your own thorough research prior to making any investment decisions.
15 Oct 2024 - Nifty Predictions (Next Trading Day)1. Index Chart Details
Index: Nifty 50 Index
Date: October 14, 2024
Time Frames:
Monthly (1M)
Weekly (1W)
Daily (1D)
5-Minute (5)
2. Support and Resistance Levels for Next Trading Day
Support Levels:
First Support: 25,000
Second Support: 24,800
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 25,200
Second Resistance: 25,400
3. Market Scenario for Next Trading Day
Expected Opening Slight Gap Up
Market Trend Bullish initially, then range-bound
Timing Initial bullish momentum in the first hour, followed by consolidation
4. Options Strategies for Next Trading Day
Recommended Strategies:
Bull Call Spread: Buy 25,100 Call, Sell 25,200 Call
Long Call: Buy 25,200 Call for bullish sentiment
Short Put: Sell 25,000 Put to capitalize on potential support
5a. Calendar Spread Strategy
Recommended Strikes:
Daily: Buy 25,100 Call, Sell 25,200 Call
Weekly: Buy 25,200 Call, Sell 25,300 Call
Monthly: Buy 25,300 Call, Sell 25,400 Call
5b. Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Trends
Daily Bullish 25,000 (Support), 25,200 (Resistance)
Weekly Bullish 24,800 (Support), 25,400 (Resistance)
Monthly Bullish 24,500 (Support), 26,000 (Resistance)
6. Trading Recommendations for ATM, ITM, OTM
ATM Trade Best during initial hour
ITM Trade Good for bullish scenarios
OTM Don't Trade Avoid unless strong bullish signal
Summary
The market is expected to open slightly bullish, with initial momentum followed by a range-bound phase. The recommended strategies focus on bullish positions, particularly around the 25,100 and 25,200 strikes. The calendar spread can be effectively utilized across daily, weekly, and monthly options.
Disclaimer: Do Manage your Risk and Money management, Do not Forget to PUT STOP LOSS.