2025 first semster - btc crypto revieww Finally, we made some progress in the past few hours.
I understand that BTC is getting lazy, or it's getting old, points of view, but it's evident that it takes a move and pursues it for a month.
June was pretty sidewards
May was upwards
April goes up too
March was consolidating
February goes down
January bubbled
The first semester of 2025 was highly significant for the cryptocurrencies in general. The positive and declared interest of big institutions and governments consolidated the basis of the market. At the same time, explosion is always a double weapon, for instance, the big bubble in January and the February drawdown were linked with the US past election and fee wars.
This was sustained by the decline in markets such as SP500, US30, EURONEXT, and NEKKEI, after the US and Chinese declaration about the import-export fees that had increased the popular interest in crypto. Mostly due to a high level of volatility in the traditional markets, which had a strengthened role of crypto as an alternative.
Here is a quick update about the last analysis of BTC, to be considered with the TOTAL crypto market cap :
TOTAL recovered an inefficiency of 3 - 2.8T --> left behind since May, normalizing the volume and price.
BTC reached 108K --> fulfilling the demand and last orders, as shown on the liquidation heatmap. Double top, strong body, Fibonacci levels perfectly respected till the price entered again in the range zone.
Sidewarding for a week. A lateral phase may indicate a consolidating phase for the price and a balanced power between sellers and buyers.
The pattern is similar to what it was at the end of May. The last 108k liquidated several orders. The retail/institutional ratio increased, returning to the April levels.
The last weekend was the most significant for the coin. The fast decrease confirms the last spikes as liquidity and volume recovers. The price dropped and reached a last level of inefficiency.
The range brokerage at 101800, kept since May, and strong overpassing of the psycho level of 100K, confirmed the drawdown.
98600 --> Inefficiency recover from begin of the May spike. Strong reaction at the level, double confirmed the drawdown theory.
The volume, liquidation maps, and institution vs retail ratio, show a decline in the price linked with an increase in shorts, mostly from retails. Simultaneously, the rise in nr of accounts holding more than 1K bitcoin, the Fear & Greed index, and the ETF increase, shows a next positive scenario for bitcoin.
This drawdown was essential to allow a growth over 108-111K. The last zone I will keep an eye on is 92-93K.
92K --> strong support and POI. It will end the cup shape and restore the price before the May leg up, but retracing on a monthly time frame since it would coincide with 0.5 monthly.
This would happen after a recovery to the range, 102-105K.
Thanks,
M
