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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Bitcoin Fresh Technical Analysis and Price Prediction AnalysisBTC/USDT – Technical Analysis Update 📊 Current Price: ~$93,000 📈 Recent Move: Strong bounce from $79,000, surging $17,000 in just a few hours. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure 🔸 Resistance Zone: $95,000 – This level acts as a critical supply zone. A strong rejection here may trigger short-term corrections. 🔸 Breakout Confirmation (BOS - Break of Structure): A decisive close above $99,600 with volume could confirm bullish continuation towards new highs. 🔸 Support & Downside Risk: If BTC fails to hold above $95,000, a pullback towards $75,000-$70,000 remains a possibility. EMAs & Trendline Support: Watch for dynamic support from 50 EMA & ascending trendline in case of retracement. Market Outlook: - BTC remains in a bullish structure, but volatility is high. - RSI & Volume Analysis: Overbought conditions on lower timeframes suggest possible consolidation before the next leg up. ⚠️ Risk Management: Always trade with stop-loss and avoid overleveraging in this volatile market. 📡 Stay tuned for real-time insights! Note: NFA & DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoPatel
BTC#19: “Cryptocurrency Reserves” and trading plants💎 💎 💎 After Trump posted about his plan to put BTC into the national cryptocurrency reserve, BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSD had a meteoric rise back to 93~95x. Let's plan to trade BTC: 💎 💎 💎 1️⃣ **Fundamental Analysis:** 📊 The current market is dominated by “US crypto assets”. 🚀 Trump: Will put BTC into the national reserve, this will help the crypto sector break out. However, it is also important to note that the US lacks budget support and crypto reserves are just empty words at present. 📌 The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 93%. It can be seen that the current cash flow injected into the market is not really significant because interest rates have not yet decreased and the US tariff policy is still waiting to cause an economic war. Current news plays a role in restraining the downward momentum and fear in the recent past. 2️⃣ **Technical analysis:** 🔹 **Frame D**: it can be seen that the price is looking for an important resistance area. Note that the current price structure is decreasing, so the price can still turn around at any time when it touches the diagonal resistance zone. 🔹 **Frame H4**: It is clear that yesterday's increase has not yet had any technical recovery to be able to break through the current resistance zone. 🔹 **Frame H1**: Temporarily, the price is still in an upward trend influenced by yesterday's positive news. The previously broken trendline will act as an important support for the price to break out in the near future 3️⃣ **Trading plan:* ⛔ The current area is no longer ideal for establishing a trading position, if the price still has no recovery, we can consider looking for a SELL position when the price reaches the diagonal resistance area when a price structure appears on a smaller time frame. BUY should only be made if the price recovers and accumulates in the old resistance area and an increasing price structure appears on a smaller time frame. ✅ On the D and H4 time frames, the price structure is still bearish, besides, H1 has increased strongly without any technical recovery due to the influence of positive news. So we can completely wait for a trading opportunity when the price finds an important resistance and support zone. 💪 **Wishing you success in achieving profits!**
by TonyL0ng
Bitcoin - Targets 116K 126K 148KIn chart i have shown why price is holding at 83K and may not fall further now. Price height from Point of Control to ATH is all most equal to the price range from POC to low of 83 K . IT could have been taken support at 87 or above 83 but due to fear it has seen 83. True some selling came from various sources and little frauds too. But still price is acting technically now. And in wave theory its completion of 4th wave and once support seems to be taking at 83K and move in 5th wave then targets are coming as 116, 126 and 148 K. Serious. These are 5th wave levels as per wave theory. BTC is sure Bullish and soon +ve news are expected and price will follow the Bullish trend. Time duration is not sure up price will march up and up only
by venkatfx
Bitcoin : Easy to follow hype, Hard to hodl through dropsThe recent price action shows a sharp spike followed by a pullback, with a notable gap between approximately 81XXX and 84XXX. This gap suggests a rapid move that wasn’t fully filled, which could act as support in current correction phase. The overall trajectory from 2023 to early 2025 shows that Bitcoin is in a strong bull market, potentially driven by macroeconomic factors (e.g., inflation concerns, institutional adoption, Trump Government) or halving cycles (the last one was in 2024). The break above 100K validate this sentiment. Potential Scenarios: Continuation: If the pullback holds above the 81XXX–85XXX (Daily or weekly TF) gap or around 73XXX-74XXX support(A test to last breakout zone ,considering worst case scenario), Bitcoin could retest 110,000 and push toward 120,000–150,000 in the mid-to-long term (2025–2026), assuming bullish momentum persists. I lean toward a optimistic view/Bullish View when everyone is fear right now, expecting a low very soon within current to next week (Early March) which can provide buying opportunities (As marked on chart) and considering my target around 120K to 150K for long term.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TheGoldenCircle
BTC#18: BTC plunges, destination and trading opportunities at th🔥 So BTC has corrected. However, how much it has decreased, we will analyze it right away: 🔥 1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:** 📊 Widespread Pessimism, Cryptocurrency Market Plunges Sharply ———— ⚫Bitcoin and altcoins plunge: Bitcoin drops nearly 5% to $90,000, Ethereum loses more than 10% in two days, Solana drops 15%, Dogecoin drops 13%. ⚫The market is still affected by the $1.4 billion hack last week. Bybit announces compensation but Ethereum is still under pressure. ⚫Weak market sentiment: Many meme coins collapse, limited capital flows cause altcoins to lose value sharply. Solana under selling pressure as it prepares to unlock $1.72 billion in tokens on March 1. ⚫Crypto-related stocks also plunge: Coinbase down for six consecutive sessions, MicroStrategy down 5.7%, BTC mining stocks fall sharply. 🚀 MicroStrategy continues to buy BTC: The company bought another 20,356 BTC worth $1.99 billion, bringing its total BTC holdings to 499,096 VND (~$33.1 billion). 🛫Forecast: The downtrend may continue if market sentiment does not improve and cash flow does not return to altcoins. 2️⃣ **Technical analysis:** 🔹 **Frame D**: the bullish structure has been broken and turned bearish. Pessimistic sentiment covers the entire market so it will be difficult to see an immediate recovery 🔹 **H4 frame**: the bearish price structure is more clearly shown. The nearest resistance zone is 93x 🔹 **H1 frame**: the price line is still quite far from the horizontal or diagonal resistance zone, the current price has recovered a bit but the market sentiment is still hesitant about the Fibo 23.6 area as you can see on the chart 3️⃣ **Trading plan:* ⛔The current time is not suitable to catch the bottom of BTC, not only the market sentiment is pessimistic but the basic information has not seen any positive news for BTC. We will need to patiently wait for confirmation from the price line ✅ Priority at the moment. Currently is looking for a SELL position following the main trend. The sharp price drop will have a recovery adjustment but pay attention to stick to the price structure and do not be greedy. 💪 **Good luck trading!**
by TonyL0ng
BTC#17: How Does Bybit Affect BTC? Traders Need to Know This!💎 💎 💎After a long time, BINANCE:BTCUSDT has not escaped the SW zone. So what is the market reflecting? Let's analyze the price reaction of BINANCE:BTCUSD in this area: 💎 💎 💎 1️⃣ **Notable news:** 📊 Coinbase co-founder: A settlement has been reached with the US SEC, the related lawsuit is expected to be officially approved and withdrawn next week. The dismissal of the lawsuit is said to bring many positive signals to the cryptocurrency market in general. 🚀 The security incident on Bybit caused a recent decline, recording the outflow of money from Bybit including hackers' money of 2,235 billion USD. However, liquidity during this time was still maintained stable. 📌 This incident shows the solidarity of the crypto industry community, not the fragmentation of previous attacks. It can be seen that the future potential of the industry will develop even better. 2️⃣ **Technical analysis:** 🔹 **Frame D**: The price structure is still bullish, but yesterday's closing candle completely destroyed BTC's previous attempt to increase in price. A bearish engulfing candle shows that it will take more time to accumulate to break out of this SW area or the price will have to find a better support zone to break out. 🔹 **Frame H4**: The price line is still in the SW area, however, the recent increase gives us a signal about the possibility of BTC increasing in price. Let's look at H1 to see this signal more clearly 🔹 **Frame H1**: The temporary price structure is an upward price structure. Although it cannot be immediately, this is an ideal area to wait for a position whether it is BUY or SELL 3️⃣ **Trading plan:* ⛔ The current price area tests the patience of traders. Trading in the SW price zone always erodes trading psychology due to greed and expectation. FOMO every time the price signals a break through the SW zone will erode the account and trading psychology. Wait for a clearer signal from the price reaction. ✅ As you can see the plan in the H1 frame. Waiting for a clearer price structure to establish a position is the top priority. We do not predict where the price will go but look at reality to decide what to wait for. "Trade what you see, not you think" 💪 **Wish you successful trading!**
by TonyL0ng
Adverse excursion: a key concept for risk managementAs a professional trader, I can tell you about the adverse excursion and its crucial importance in the world of trading. Adverse excursion: a key concept for risk management Adverse excursion refers to the unfavorable movement of the price of an asset after a position is opened. More precisely, it is the difference between the entry price and the worst point the price reaches before the position becomes profitable again or is closed. Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) The concept of Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE), developed by John Sweeney, is particularly useful. It measures the maximum floating loss suffered by a position before it turns in your favor or is closed. The MAE is a powerful statistical tool for analyzing drawdowns in an open position. Trading Efficiency Using MAE has several benefits for traders: Optimizing Stop-Loss: By analyzing MAE over a series of trades, the optimal level for placing stop-loss orders can be statistically determined. Evaluating Trading Systems: MAE helps evaluate the performance of trading systems and identify areas for improvement. Refining Risk Management Strategies: By understanding the maximum adverse moves, traders can refine their strategies to better preserve their capital. Improving Trading Efficiency: MAE analysis can help improve decision-making and execute trades with greater accuracy and confidence. Practical Application To effectively use the concept of adverse excursion, it is crucial to collect data on a large number of trades. For example, if you observe a series of MAEs like this: 15, 23, 18, 16, 0, 11, 31, 17, 8, 0, 19, 26, 0, 38, 22, you can deduce valuable information about the behavior of your trades and adjust your stop-loss levels accordingly. In conclusion, the adverse excursion and especially the MAE are powerful tools for any serious trader. They allow to optimize risk management, improve the performance of strategies and make more informed decisions. As they say in the trade, "who controls his risks, controls his profits". _______ Using the Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) has several significant advantages over traditional stop-loss placement methods: Data-driven optimization The MAE allows for a more precise and data-driven approach to stop-loss placement: Statistical analysis: By examining the distribution of the MAE over a large number of trades, the optimal level for placing stop-loss orders can be statistically determined. Performance visualization: The graphical representation of the MAE provides a clear overview of trade performance, allowing the most effective stop-loss levels to be visually identified. Balancing protection and performance The MAE helps to find an optimal balance between capital protection and trading performance: Retention of winning trades: The stop-loss can be placed to retain 75-85% of winning trades, thus avoiding prematurely cutting potentially profitable positions. Elimination of large losses: At the same time, this approach eliminates trades that suffer large losses, thus protecting capital. Adaptation to the specific strategy The MAE adapts to the unique characteristics of each trading strategy: Customization: Unlike generic methods, the MAE takes into account the specific behavior of the trades of a given strategy. Flexibility: This approach can be applied to a variety of strategies, whether short-term trading, swing trading, or long-term positions3. Improved risk management Using the MAE contributes to better overall risk management: Deep understanding: The MAE provides a more nuanced understanding of how trades evolve, allowing for better risk assessment. Reduced stress: By having a solid basis for placing stop-losses, traders can reduce the stress associated with real-time decision-making. Complementarity with other tools The MAE can be used in conjunction with other techniques: Combination with the MFE: The analysis of the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) in parallel can help to optimize not only the stop-losses, but also the profit-taking. Cross-validation: The results obtained by the MAE analysis can be compared with those of traditional parameter optimization methods for greater confidence in the strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Bitcoin - Bullish and strong Buy - Target 104KMultiple times in my previous charts i have said price below 97K is seeing buying by big players. Which is very very clear in chart with multi month and week support visible in chart. Any price below 97K is being bought by big players in US and these days outside US as well. Multiple people clearly pointed out the money flow into Bitcoin which is visible in other indicators. only because of long weekend price is sideways to bearish in short term which is cleverly accumulated by big players. I am expecting price above 100K in coming days to test the previous strong resistance above 104K for now.
by venkatfx
3
BTC#16: Price reaction has changed positively.BTC break out SW?💎 💎 💎 In recent days, although important data information has been released, BTC is still in the Sideway zone and there are some positive signs. We continue to plan the next 💎 💎 💎 1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:** 📊 Financial report, Fed Logan said that if the labor market remains strong, better inflation data does not necessarily mean the Fed can cut interest rates. Inflation data in the next few months will be very important; also pay attention to changes in geopolitics and policies; the impact of these factors on the economy is being closely monitored. 🚀 GameStop is considering investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Three sources said GameStop is exploring investing in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. GameStop shares rose nearly 20% in after-hours trading following the news. 2️⃣ **Technical analysis:** 🔹 **D Frame**: We can see that although the price has not yet escaped the Sideway zone, the continuous appearance of higher lows is a positive signal to pay attention to. 🔹 **H4 Frame**: After the price reaction at 94x, although the 97x zone has not been penetrated, the price reaction in this area is giving positive signals 🔹 **H1 Frame**: The price structure has a change from bearish to bullish. If the trendline area continues to hold, there is a high possibility that the bulls will continue to dominate next week. 3️⃣ **Trading plan:* ⛔ The economic data released last week brought many fluctuations to the US dollar, but the price of BTC still did not have any significant changes. However, with the current price reaction, we should not apply the trading strategy in the SW price zone anymore. The 2 price zones have been tested quite a lot. This is a sign of an upcoming strong fluctuation ✅ The short-term price structure is in favor of the bulls. We can consider looking for a position if the price structure shows signs. 💪 **Good luck trading!**
by TonyL0ng
BTC#15: BTC Bottomed Out or Still Falling? Detailed Plan💎 💎 💎 So BINANCE:BTCUSD continues to return to the 96K support zone. However, the price reaction this time is different. We continue to plan for BINANCE:BTCUSDT 💎 💎 💎 1️⃣ Macro Perspective 🔹Oklahoma Bitcoin Reserve Bill: If passed, this could be a big step towards legitimizing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, especially in the context of the US's still hesitant attitude towards crypto. 🔹Former Treasury Secretary Summers warns of inflation: This means the Fed could keep interest rates high longer or even increase them again. High interest rate environments are generally not favorable for risky assets like crypto. 🔹Hong Kong confirms BTC & ETH as investment-proof assets: This is a bullish signal as it promotes legitimate investment flows into crypto. 2️⃣ BTC Technical Analysis 🔹 **D Frame** (Daily) The bears control the SW (supply zone) area, which confirms the short-term downtrend. Yesterday's candle closed strongly bearish, showing that selling pressure is still strong. 🔹 **H4 Frame**: The price is retesting the support zone but the buying force is weakening, confirming that the market sentiment is no longer in favor of continuing to pump up. It is likely that if BTC has a recovery, it will only be a recovery wave to create momentum to break the support zone below. 🔹 **H1 Frame**: - The price returns to the downtrend channel → the SELL strategy has an advantage in the short term. - The 94~96K zone may be broken soon, so it is necessary to monitor the price reaction when the price approaches this zone. 3️⃣ Trading strategy ✅ Priority plan: Look for SELL opportunities Potential entry zone: 94K - 96K (there may be a slight rebound to clear stop loss before breaking down). Target: 89K - 90K (next strong support). Stop-loss: Above 97K (if the price breaks up strongly, the bearish scenario will be negated). ⛔ Do not prioritize BUY at this time The market structure does not support the bulls. If you want to BUY, you need to wait for a clearer reversal confirmation signal at the 89K support zone 💪 **Wishing you successful trading!**💪
by TonyL0ng
BTC#14: Bitcoin Is Resurgent? Bulls Are Back or Just a Scam?💎 💎 💎 As analyzed in the previous article, BTC tested the trendline and then turned down. However, the price did not fall too much and we saw a recovery. Let's plan BINANCE:BTCUSDT the next trade 💎 💎 💎 1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:** 📊 The US dollar index DXY is up more than 0.50% on the day and is currently at 108.40; US regulators are piloting tokenization, using stablecoins as collateral. 🔹The Texas Bitcoin Reserve Act has been submitted to the Senate Finance Committee for consideration; 🔹US Senator from Florida proposes Bitcoin investment bill. 🔹 New bill in Montana, USA allows investment of up to $50 million in Bitcoin; 🚀 Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin expected to break record high as US Treasury market environment is favorable for digital assets. 📌 Overall policy implications for Bitcoin have restored optimism to the market. 2️⃣ **Technical analysis:** 🔹 **D Frame**: A green pinbar appeared at the end of the week, bringing positive signals to the market. The current price line is also supportive as the price breaks above the candle wick top. 🔹 **H4 frame**: Although the downtrend has not been broken, the 96K area is still acting as an important support zone. 2 pinbars are a clear sign that we will see a recovery for BINANCE:BTCUSD 🔹 **H1 frame**: The temporary downtrend price structure has been broken. However, the resistance zone of 98k - 100k is also very close. 3️⃣ **Trading plan:* ⛔ The current SW zone has been maintained for quite a long time. We will need to wait for clarity on the price line because the downtrend price structure in the H4 frame has not been broken yet ✅ Currently, looking at the positive price reaction for this area, the market is leaning more towards the bulls. However, establishing a BUY position at this time is riskier. We can wait for the price structure as on the H1 chart to choose a position. 💪 **Good luck trading!**
by TonyL0ng
BTC#13: Market Shaking! Where is BTCUSDT Price? 💎 💎 💎 As predicted in the previous article, the price touched the H1 trendline zone and then had a correction back to the 96K support zone. Now we will continue to plan for BTC 💎 💎 💎 1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:** 📊Maryland, the United States plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund 🔹US non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000 in January, lower than expected; 🔹Trump plans to announce retaliatory tariffs as early as Friday 🚀 Interest rate futures traders expect the Fed to make another rate cut in May 📌 Overall, the current fundamentals are still supporting BTC's upside potential. However, market liquidity is still being affected by Trump's tariff policies and potential future trade wars from these policies 2️⃣ **Technical analysis:** 🔹 **D frame**: A long-tailed pinbar appeared when the price reached the 99K resistance zone. However, the 96K support zone is still doing its job well. For a clearer view, we will evaluate the smaller time frames 🔹 **H4 frame**: The bearish price structure is still intact with no signs of change. 🔹 **H1 frame**: Although the bearish price structure was broken, it immediately turned down. The price reaction at the current support area is weak. 3️⃣ **Trading plan:** ⛔ Looking at the multi-frame price structure, it can be seen that this is not a suitable time to establish a BUY position. Basic information from the market is also showing concern about the upcoming tariff policy. If there is a change in the price structure from H1, then this possibility should be considered. ✅ Trading with the trend is still the top priority, 2 pinbars in time frame D also show that the market sentiment is leaning towards the bears. 💪 **Good luck trading!**
by TonyL0ng