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Bitcoin 4H Swing Setup - Bitcoin is now down 15% from its recent swing high - I have drawn 2 Price Paths for Bitcoin - The first price path describes how Bitcoin can soon run up clear the Fair Value Gap and then pierce 60k and bounce from 56-58,000$ - The second price path describes how Bitcoin can soon run down grab liquidity from 56-58k and then move up towards 64k - Bitcoin is currently sitting in a no-trade zone even if you are looking for longs or shorts make sure your leveraged positions are carrying a calculated risk
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VKtradesimbalance
Bitcoin in Lots of Problems - Stay ALERT!Non- Market factors affecting the BTC price US Govt has a holding of around 200,000 BTC worth $12 Billion. Yesterday (20-07-2024), they moved 29K btcs worth $2.02 Billion to another wallet and this was the major reason for this dip along with the highest resistance at around $70,000. There are speculations that the US govt. might sell these transfered BTCs just like Germany. This is a huge fear factor. On the other hand MT gox is also repaying its creditors, this is another bearish thing, because people will sell what they will receive. Chart Analysis On the chart you can see 4 circled areas, these are all bearish movements, near range MAs crossing down long range MAs - we have discussed these multiple times in the past, these are death crosses. At present, btc price is holding and consolidating at the support level 2. Under this we have small support zones - 1-> $65,990 - Fibonacci level 0.786- Helped us in the past. 2-> $65,520 - A past support zone 3-> $64,900- $65,000 -> A liquidity support zone. 4-> A major support zone between $63,200 - $64,000 (also backed by fib level 0.618 at $63,140) This level has supported the last fall that can when Mt gox made first payment and Germany sold their btc. This is the biggest support we have at the nearest point. Since last night, bears were in high power and it is easy to create bearish fall than creating a rise, we have discussed this many times as well. As of now, the support level 2 is holding the price, all the MAs are anti rise this time and will act as resistance. There are major chances we will go down and see the major support level at $64,000. Always keep in mind the Market Maker (MM) game. When traders go bullish, they shift the market to bearish mode to liquidate them and when traders are bearish, you would see a sudden rise. Traders are always fighting against the Market. So when you feel the market is going into blood, get ready to see a sudden spike. This might bring price up bypassing the MAs but will get rejected by the support level 1. Plan accordingly.
by imvijaygir
Bitcoin Needs More Bull Power to Cross $69,800I am sorry I could not publish charts for 2 days, however in my last update I had shared the zones to come. If you have read my last chart idea, you would knew what was going to happen. When I published my last chart we were at mark X, and I told you that there are chances BTC would move up and try to break the upper resistance and on failure it will retest the support at 1, that is exactly what happened. A tip : Always keep in mind, when you are trading, you are against the market of pros - The Market Makers. They are not normal traders, they have deep knowledge of the mindset of a normal trader. So when market gains too much green, in market language it is called Trader greed, and when market is too much red, its Trader fear. So when there is too much green they will drop the asset price and will earn from it, and when the traders are in red (shorting an asset), they will pump the price to liquidate people. You would have seen multiple times. Since I started writing charts, I am always awaring you of zones where this can happen. Let's talk about the current situation. At this moment MA20 is holding the price, however this is not the strongest of all MAs. There is a chance that we fall from this zone, and btc try to retest the lastest zone (the light orange zone with red border). The last time this zone was tested it failed, meaning this is not a solid support and hence the responsibility to hold btc price fall goes to MA50. There are very light chances this particular zone has become a good zone, but data does not show enough power here. As we know, the area of $69,800 is an old ATH of btc, and hence it has a high resistance. It will take atleast 5 attempts in normal cases or multiple hits with a good volume to cross it. Or if super charged bulls enter the market, this can be crossed within a day. I have told you before multiple times, it is easy to go red and very very difficult to go green. You can understand it like gravity, its easy to drop a thing than to make it fly. The MACD as of now shows that Bulls have reduced power and Bears are slowly gaining the control. There are huge chances we might retest the support level 1 with MA 100 hovering over it. When even market is green, MMs will dump it and when market is red and every one starts to short, MMs will do a sudden pump. Stay ALert!
Long
by imvijaygir
BTC looks Ready to get a raise towards $68,000With all the obstacles crossed, it looks like BTC is now ready to move towards $68,000 resistance. We have seen btc moving up taking the necessary correction with every step. For this final step under zone 1, btc has almost done taking the correction and soon will start to penetrate this level to move up now. It has already tried doing that multiple times in the last few hours and failed. It will not be called a fail because these hits help in losening the resistance. Now it should be able to cross the zone 1 and reclaim the support above it. take some time off there before started the next journey which we will cover in the our morning session. In case, btc moves up we should keep in mind that there is a heavy resistance at $68,700 zone, a past ath zone. So this can and should work as a heavy resistance, pushing the price back to retest the upper level of Zone 1. or if btc kept moving with the same pattern of making steps, it should create such a mini support between the zone 1 and the resistance $68,700. There seems no chances of BTC retracting back under zone 1 as the market sentiment looks bullish and most of the liquidity is around zone 1 for as of now. So even if BTC fails to rise up, it should not fall from current level. One very important thing, that I almost forgot to cover, the MAs. We have seen multiple golden crossovers, I have covered in my past chart. One cross over that we are waiting is 100 MA crossing over 200 MA, and this will bring all the MAs in the perfect order they should be. The order from top to down should be 20,50,100,200. This shows the price is in perfect health and good to move up.
Long
by imvijaygir
WILL BUY THE DIP SUPPORT BULLS & CAN BTC RECOVER TO 71K ?Earlier I discussed about double top pattern in making & captured the great free fall of more than 7,000 points. Now, Bitcoin can be seen taking support at important levels. Bitcoin is experiencing times of high fear, high volatility and negative sentiment among the traders. From a psychological point of view, this could end in a bullish momentum as I have seen in the past that such high volatility usually lead to trend reversal. For now, big buyers are actively holding back a possible fall amid transfers of the previously hacked crypto exchange to its debtors and BTC sell-offs by German authorities. In April, the average cost of BTC mining among the largest public miners was $53,000, technically, the level of average cost of BTC mining plays the role of an intermediate bottom. Judging by the growth of volumes and price entry into the area of the lower boundary of the "Flag or Megaphone" pattern, buyers appear on the market and at the moment stop the price fall, forming a sideways range of 53500-58500. Accordingly, a breakdown of one of the boundaries may trigger an impulse to one side or the other, based on the technical nuances there is a probability that there will be an attempt to break the resistance. Fundamentally, the environment is difficult due to news flow, but investors are waiting for the approval of ETH-ETF, which may bring back the bullish mood to the market (indirect impact on BTC). Technically, the emphasis is on the range. A break of 58500 will give bullish momentum, a break of 53500 may allow the price to decline to the 50500-51000 risk zone We can only analyze and make a trading decision but only the time will tell whether is it headed to 71K or below 50K.
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by akshit_official
3
MACD giving signal for trend reversal, waiting for Golden Cross-The market has been playing the same since the last chart. MA 200 has been a major support, did not let BTC price to cross it. Also sent pushed it up however as discussed in the previous charts " once a support is broken it becomes a resistance ", hence our level 2 which was previously a strond support has now become a strong resistance. MACD shows a loss in Bulls potential, as the market has been in a bear sentiment for the past few days. {Always keep in mind, before taking a long jump, the price has to take a correction. This way, new buyers get the chance to get into the market and paper hands are removed.} Coming back to the chart, because MA 100, and 50 were present below the zone 2, it was hard zone due to multiple resistances and all the bull power exsausted there and because of that, the price was not able to break the upper wall of zone 2 and faced rejection (this is where we are right now). What to Expenct now? The 200 MA is continuosly providing support however, everything in this world has a breaking point. With multiple hits, even the strongest MA like 200 can be broken and psychologically setting a bearish trend is far easier than creating a bullish sentiment in the market. Most of the traders are fearful and the red in chart makes them panic and they sell causing more panic. This is dominos effect. There is a chance of a Golden cross over at the mark X , this will give a bullish push to the price. This will happen when MA 20 will cross over the MA100. This should happen near about the base of zone 2, so that the bullish power helps in breaking the resistance of zone 2 and other MAs. For the support at this point, we have 0.786 Fib level and MA 200, but they can't handle more pressure as well. The doji green candles & heavy red candles shows that bulls are finding it hard to keep up with the bears. Still the cross over in MACD is a good signal (marked). When ever the blue line in MACD crosses the orange line (signal line) from botton to up, it is a bullish signal. It should not come under orange, if that happens, we should get ready to see the $65,000 zone.
by imvijaygir
2
200 MA being the last supportSo the market has liquidated both sides players and still going downwards even when it took support from the lower zone of point 2. The intersaction of MA 20 and 50 became its enemy and send it back to the 0.786 level of Fib just like we discussed in the last chart. The fib sent it back, and this time the level 1 acted as a resistance and btc failed to hold the position. At the current movement, btc is getting a support from MA 200 and is buring under MA 100, 50 and 20. now the level 2 is also the enemy. So btc is in such a position that it has only one friend nearby i.e. MA 200 and if it wants to go up, if has to face multiple enemies which means it require lots of positive volume. When you swim against the stream you need too much power. It would be easy for btc to fall further down and reach the $65,000 which is a light support zone, but if it goes further down, it will get the major support suzone of $63,000. The price will get some time to gather enough energy to pass all the resistances at once and reach the $69,000 once again. But this should not happen. The MA 200 should provide enough support to let the price go back and try to break the level 2 resistance once again. one major thing to keep an eye. If the cyan line (MA20) crossed the red line (MA 100) and went down, we definetly going to $63,000 zone. Too much short pressure on the market, and hence the MAAs might take advantage of it and push the price up to liquidate the short traders. Let's see in teh morning, what happens.
by imvijaygir
4
Looks like BTC is clear to MOVE UPThe chart is showing a lot of positive strength today. -On a 4 hours chart we can see the price has retested the support multiple time and has accepted it well. -100 MA is going to cross 200MA to upside which is also a positive sign. Small MA crossing a bigger MA and going up is always a good sign of momentum. - MACD showing decreasing bear power and should create a divert, meaning the MACD line (Blue) should cross over the Signal line (orange). - 20 MA is sitting at the bottom of current 4 hour candle -> That is a support. - 50 Ma is lying between $63,000 & $61,000 creating another zone for support in case the price goes south for any reason. Over sentiment is positive. The price should test and try to break the resistance at $66,000. And when it happens, another barrier at $68,000 is waiting. If the market receives some good momentum there are chances, the price directly goes to $69,000 before another cooloff. Just a precaution which we should always have in our minds before taking any decision, watch out for any news with a negative sentiment, which can cause to retest the latest support.
Long
by imvijaygir
Bitcoin might have to COOL-OFFBitcoin has again fallen below the recent up trend line and the relation between price movement and the RSI in hourly chart of is falling apart. But it does not mean bulls are loosing their power. Everytime the price takes a rise, it has to either take a correction or consolidate in a particular zone to cool off or balance the RSI. Though it stands on the 100 MA, there are chances it might need the help of 200 MA to settle the score. There are chances the price of BTC might take a correction of about 2% and comes down to $63,230. Fear not, in the absence of any big on or off market activity affecting the price for negativity, the price of Bitcoin will surely bounce of the 0.618 level of Fib as this should provide 2 supports here : 200 MA and Price zone support. At this moment, 100 MA is holding it fine and if it stays even in this zone for a few hours, it will cool off and can start its upward journey.
by imvijaygir
2
BITCOIN Poised for Huge RallyOn Weekly Basis: BTC/USD completed its correction from 65500 to 16300 in its 3 Wave Down Correction. Previous top was made at 19000 in December, 2017 also a support level. Fibonacci 78.6% retracement from bottom 5300 to top 65500 ends at 16300, a support level. It took a support at 16300. It consolidated at 16300 till December, 2022 then started a fresh new Bull trend. Current rally has its base at 16300 with breaking a strong resistance at 46900. There is a golden cross over at 200 DMA, since then its on up trend. RSI entered in overbought zone, typically always high for Cryptos. It formed a strong base at 26000 level which is also a B Wave. Uptrend started from A Wave (January, 2023) and peaking at 30600 before it started new rally from 26000 (Completion of B Wave). Currently it has completed A and B wave. After it has broken the downward trendline and continuously going up, may give a chance for long position with handsome gains. The current C wave could prove to be very strong which may prove to breach an all time high of 65500 on weekly basis. Warning and Disclaimer: Above prediction should not be taken as financial advise, it is a personal opinion. Consult your financial advisor. Investment is subject to market risks. Past performance is not the guarantee for future performance. It is for educational purpose only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AnkurSharda3
Why BTC is going down ? Follow up Today, BTCUSDT has reached one critical point. In the past analysis linked here, we were waiting for two left-behind point, one between 56k and 53k and another below 51k, around 45k. The price recovered the inefficiency, kept the lateral movement on the 60k resistance, consolidated by returning to the 63k level. I was looking for a probable BARR but, as said in the past analysis, the pair had few liquidity and interest point to reach before increase and start the post-halving bull run. The decreasing trend line fake out on the begin of the month can be mistaken for a break out, but the price did not draw a strong BOS and satisfying the fibonacci TP and level on the monthly inefficiency level (purple line). This new bearish movement of the last few days included all crypto pairs. Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, Dogecoin... everyone's price decreased. From a technical point of view, the price have reached our POI, point of interest zones. For Bitcoin we were waiting a recover around 56-53k, which were a inefficiency zone left behind from February 2024. It's impressive the reactivity of the price around our levels, snipers ! There are still areas to cover. On higher tf, the price is creating a M-pattern, indicator for an imminent bearish run. It would be in line with our analysis. The price would cover those missing areas, consolidating and the start a bull run. I am confident on a return around 42k before the long run. I have just a note, a little thing that does not make sense so far : the price in below the Halving-level and this happened just another time before. Anyways, from an historical and fundamental point of view, the price has always increased after the halving (that's the aim). Are there any fundamentals points which have to be essentially consider for a fair analysis ? Are institutions and big whales a turning player for this halving as never before ? Let's see..
Long
by itsmcasalinii
Why BTC is going down ? Follow up Today, BTCUSDT has reached one critical point. In the past analysis linked here, we were waiting for two left-behind point, one between 56k and 53k and another below 51k, around 45k. The price recovered the inefficiency, kept the lateral movement on the 60k resistance, consolidated by returning to the 63k level. I was looking for a probable BARR but, as said in the past analysis, the pair had few liquidity and interest point to reach before increase and start the post-halving bull run. The decreasing trend line fake out on the begin of the month can be mistaken for a break out, but the price did not draw a strong BOS and satisfying the fibonacci TP and level on the monthly inefficiency level (purple line). This new bearish movement of the last few days included all crypto pairs. Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, Dogecoin... everyone's price decreased. From a technical point of view, the price have reached our POI, point of interest zones. For Bitcoin we were waiting a recover around 56-53k, which were a inefficiency zone left behind from February 2024. It's impressive the reactivity of the price around our levels, snipers ! There are still areas to cover. On higher tf, the price is creating a M-pattern, indicator for an imminent bearish run. It would be in line with our analysis. The price would cover those missing areas, consolidating and the start a bull run. I am confident on a return around 42k before the long run. I have just a note, a little thing that does not make sense so far : the price in below the Halving-level and this happened just another time before. Anyways, from an historical and fundamental point of view, the price has always increased after the halving (that's the aim). Are there any fundamentals points which have to be essentially consider for a fair analysis ? Are institutions and big whales a turning player for this halving as never before ? Let's see..
Long
by itsmcasalinii
Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is currently trading with a very choppy price action. - Investor's sentiment washout has been done for 2 months where altcoins got nuked and beaten down badly - What's cooking next, IMO if you are planning to buy every dip that you see then its better that you do not, crypto in terms of Bitcoin and Ethereum has stayed strong but altcoins are making new lows every day so I prefer adding Bitcoin Solana Ethereum instead of alts - I am going to keep my eyes on 55,000-56,000$ for Bitcoin it might revisit that - Don't forget aggressive short sellers are going to open more aggressive shorts that might lead to another round of shorts liquidation up to 68,000$
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VKtradesimbalance
BTC Breaks Free from Downtrend: Next Stop $72KBitcoin Shows Bullish Signs: Breaks Downtrend, RSI Rebounds, Targeting $85K and $90K Bitcoin has recently displayed strong bullish signals in the market. It formed a bullish divergence and successfully broke its downtrend. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has bounced back from oversold levels, indicating increasing bullish momentum. To sustain this upward trend, Bitcoin now needs to surpass key resistance levels at $64,500 and $72,000. If these levels are breached, new targets of $85,000 and $90,000 come into focus, potentially marking significant milestones for BTC's price trajectory. This combination of technical indicators suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by crypto_vulture_signals
3