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GBPUSD: Sellers approach multi-month-old support before US dataGBPUSD is slipping from last week’s bounce off a six-month support line. Traders are watching for Tuesday's US Consumer Confidence report, while the strong US Dollar and cautious mood ahead of the US Q3 GDP figures, inflation data, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are putting pressure on the Pound Sterling. Bears lose momentum While GBPUSD buyers aren’t gaining traction, sellers will struggle to take control. There are multiple support levels, and indicators like the RSI (14) and a weakening bearish MACD signal may hinder the bear’s progress. Key technical levels to watch Watch for the upward support line from late April around 1.2935, followed by the 200-SMA near 1.2800, as near-term key levels to watch for the GBPUSD sellers. If the bears push below 1.2800, look for support at the August and June lows around 1.2665 and 1.2610. GBPUSD needs to break the ascending trend line from early March near 1.3080 for a recovery. Additional resistance levels include the psychological barrier at 1.3000 and the 50-SMA at 1.3140. Lastly, a horizontal resistance zone near 1.3240 serves as a crucial barrier for buyers. Further downside appears less convincing With the bearish trend losing momentum, expectations for fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve could change if upcoming data doesn't support US Dollar strength. This uncertainty calls for caution among GBPUSD sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Testing key support as Cable traders await major UK dataGBPUSD pokes a three-month support region as pressure builds ahead of the UK employment and inflation data, as well as the US Retail Sales, set to release this week. Pound Sterling bears flex muscles Despite several technical levels testing the GBPUSD sellers, a potential bear cross between the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps the bears optimistic. The weakening bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI support the downside outlook. Additionally, a sustained break below an ascending support line from early August, now acting as resistance, favors the bears. Key technical levels to watch The GBPUSD pair is currently held up by a three-month support zone around 1.3040-30, just above the psychological level of 1.3000. If it drops below 1.3000, a quick decline to the late July swing high around 1.2940 and then to early August peaks near 1.2870-60 could follow. In a case where the Pound Sterling remains bearish past 1.2860, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward August’s bottom of near 1.2665. On the flip side, GBPUSD recovery remains elusive below the 100 and 200 EMAs, currently near 1.3145 and 1.3150. A seven-week horizontal resistance zone near 1.3230-40 and a previous support line around 1.3330 also pose challenges for Cable buyers. If bulls can push past 1.3330, a rally toward the last monthly high near 1.3435 is possible. Sellers stay in control While robust technical support is challenging GBP/USD sellers, a dovish outlook for the Bank of England and anticipated weak UK data, alongside rising hawkish sentiment from the Fed, may keep bears in control. Upcoming data could create some volatility, but the bearish sentiment remains strong.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Focus on 50-SMA, key horizontal support and Fed MinutesGBPUSD struggles to hold onto early gains after bouncing off a three-month support level. As bearish momentum builds, traders closely watch for insights from the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Multiple catalysts favoring Cable sellers The Pound Sterling is finding it hard to sustain a rebound from the 12-week-old support zone. Bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14) add to the negative sentiment. Additionally, last week's confirmation of a bearish rising wedge pattern enhances the resolve of GBPUSD sellers, pointing to continued downward pressure. Key technical levels to watch While sellers currently dominate the GBPUSD market, the 50-day SMA around 1.3085 poses an immediate challenge to further declines, with crucial support around 1.3060-1.3040 just below. If these levels break, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.2935 and 1.2780 could test sellers before directing them to the bearish pattern’s theoretical target of 1.2450. A corrective bounce for GBPUSD seems unlikely to gain credence unless it breaks above the wedge's lower line near 1.3280. That said, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.3100 and 1.3200. If the price holds above 1.3280, bulls may aim for a yearly high of approximately 1.3435 and the wedge's upper line around 1.3510. Bears to dominate Considering the bearish technical signals and the potential for the US Dollar to consolidate its previous monthly losses—supported by positive economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve bias—the GBPUSD pair is likely to decline further. This outlook holds unless today’s Fed Minutes and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data underperform, which could dampen the US Dollar's strength.
by MTradingGlobal
2
GBPUSD: “Rising Wedge” signals selling pressure on PoundGBPUSD experienced its biggest decline in a week the previous day as the US Dollar strengthened ahead of the September jobs data. The Pound Sterling tested a bearish rising wedge pattern but managed to bounce back from the lower line of this formation. Despite this slight recovery, traders are cautious and watching closely as they await the US ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, followed by the important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Sellers flex muscles… Besides the US Dollar’s rebound before the key US data, bearish MACD signals also keep the GBPUSD sellers hopeful. However, the nearly oversold conditions of RSI (14), the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 200-SMA, and downbeat expectations from the US statistics suggest a long and bumpy road for the bears. Technical levels to watch… If GBP/USD falls below 1.3240, it will confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, making this level critical for traders. Another important support level is the 200-SMA at 1.3180. Should the pair break below this, it may target the horizontal support zone around 1.3030, with 1.3000 serving as a psychological level. Further declines could lead to August's low near 1.2665 and possibly down to the wedge's target of 1.2370. On the upside, the GBPUSD pair faces resistance at 1.3310 and 1.3360, with the latest peak around 1.3435. If the pair breaks above 1.3435, it will encounter the top line of the rising wedge near 1.3465. Successfully moving past 1.3465 could set the stage for a rally toward the February 2022 high of about 1.3645. Expect a price pullback, but not a significant drop Overall, the GBPUSD buyers appear to be losing momentum, with sellers positioned near the bottom of the wedge and the 200-SMA. However, potential weakness in US data and several support levels make it challenging for sellers to gain full control.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Overbought RSI, key resistance test buyersGBPUSD bulls are pausing at their highest level since February 2020, marking six days of gains despite a slow market atmosphere. That said, the Pound Sterling is facing a liquidity squeeze as we approach key data and events this week, which could impact its upward momentum at these multi-month highs. Pullback appears imminent but bulls can keep the reins Apart from the market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s key catalysts, the overbought RSI (14) line and a 10-week-old ascending resistance line, close to 1.3430 at the latest, suggest consolidation in the GBPUSD prices. Important technical levels A pullback in GBPUSD seems likely, with key short-term support levels at the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci extensions of the quote’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.3375 and 1.3300. However, the previous monthly high near 1.3265 and the 21-SMA at 1.3190 are important, as they align with the bottom of a bearish wedge pattern near 1.3140, which could act as a final defense for buyers. On the flip side, for buyers to regain control, they need to break through the 1.3440 resistance. If they succeed, GBPUSD could target the February 2022 peak of around 1.3645 and the 2022 high of 1.3748. A sustained move above 1.3750 could even lead to a challenge of the psychological level at 1.4000. All eyes on US data/events Technical indicators for GBPUSD suggest a pullback may be on the horizon, even as recent U.S. factors favor ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2024. Therefore, key insights from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index— the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—on Friday will be vital for determining the market's direction.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Post-FOMC optimism stays intact despite pre-BoE retreatGBPUSD consolidates Fed-induced gains as traders await monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, the Cable pair reached a fresh 30-month high after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.50% rate cut that drowned the US Dollar across the board. Buyers stay optimist Although the Pound Sterling struggles to hold at a 2.5-month high, not to forget its failure to provide sustained breakout of a month-old horizontal resistance, the quote defends the mid-month breakout of a descending resistance line from late August, now support. Also keeping buyers hopeful is the pair’s recent rebound from the 100-SMA and steady RSI conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bearish MACD signals and a likely status-quo of the BoE could join the key upside hurdle to challenge the bulls. Technical levels to watch For GBPUSD buyers, the immediate resistance to watch is a month-old range between 1.3230 and 1.3240 if the BoE sounds hawkish. After that, the focus will shift to the 1.3300 level. If the Cable price stays above 1.3300, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels around 1.3305 and 1.3375 could attract buyers. On the flip side, GBPUSD sellers need a clear break below the 1.3150-45 support zone, which includes the 100-SMA and a month-old previous resistance line, to weaken buyer’s confidence. If they succeed, the next tests will be the 1.3100 level and the 200-SMA at 1.3025, as well as the key psychological level of 1.3000. Upward bias seems favorable Whether due to an expected hawkish pause from the BoE or the market's response to the Fed's dovish surprise, along with GBPUSD trading above the 1.3150-45 resistance-turned-support, the pair is likely to stay bullish unless the UK central bank surprises traders.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Sellers need confirmation from 1.3050 and UK/US dataGBP/USD remains flat at its lowest level in three weeks, ending a two-day losing streak. As traders await crucial economic data from the UK and the US, the Pound Sterling is testing a resistance level from late December 2023, which is now providing immediate support. GBPUSD bears flex muscles… Despite a long-standing resistance-turned-support line and upcoming data challenges, recent technical signals suggest further declines. Monday’s close below the 20-day moving average (SMA) and bearish MACD signals indicate potential further downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not yet oversold, keeping sellers hopeful. Technical levels to watch… Firstly, the resistance-turned-support line surrounding 1.3050 restricts the GBPUSD pair’s immediate downside. Following that, the quote’s quick decline to the 1.3000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. However, March’s peak of around 1.2890 and the 1.2800 round figure will precede the 200-SMA level of 1.2720 to challenge the Cable bears afterward. For buyers, a positive shift in UK data and a daily close above the 20-SMA at 1.3090 are needed to consider entering. Even so, a slew of resistances near 1.3150 and 1.3180 could test the pair’s following advances ahead of directing the bulls toward the recent peak surrounding 1.3265 and then to the 1.3300 threshold. Consolidation expected… Overall, the GBP/USD may see further declines if the economic data from the UK remains weak and US inflation data improves, unless the upcoming reports provide an unexpected boost.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Falling wedge teases buyers ahead of UK/US dataThe GBPUSD currency pair is currently at its lowest point in over a week as traders wait for important data releases on Wednesday. This data includes the UK’s S&P Global/CIPS PMIs for August and the US Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings for July. The Pound Sterling has recently broken below a key support level comprising a one-month-old ascending trend line, which has now become resistant. Bullish technical formation, bumpy road to south challenge GBPUSD bears Despite the recent decline, the GBPUSD pair is holding up well due to a bullish pattern known as a falling wedge and several support levels. The MACD indicator also shows a decreasing bearish trend, which could help GBP/USD buyers. Additionally, the RSI indicator suggests there isn’t strong market support for the current downtrend. Technical levels to watch While the short-term falling wedge restricts the GBPUSD pair’s immediate moves between 1.3080 and 1.3120, the support-turned-resistance line from early August and a seven-week-long horizontal region act as additional trading filters around 1.3150 and 1.3050-35 respectively. Apart from that, the 50-SMA and 200-SMA could challenge the momentum traders around 1.3170 and 1.2935 in that order. In a case where the GBPUSD pair remains firmer past 1.3170, it will refresh the yearly high while aiming for the falling wedge confirmation’s theoretical target surrounding 1.3300. Alternatively, a downside break of the 200-SMA support of 1.2935 will make the Cable pair vulnerable to slump toward mid-August swing low near 1.2800. Looking forward… In the short term, GBPUSD might continue to trend lower, but the bears are losing momentum. Any disappointment in US data could quickly bring buyers back into the market, especially given the bullish technical indicators.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPJPY bulls need validation from 192.00 and Japan dataThe GBPJPY currency pair is making gains as it moves within a two-week upward trend, showing renewed optimism early on Tuesday. This rise supports the bullish trend that started in early August and counters the previous indecision seen last week. Currently, GBPJPY is trading above the 100-day moving average and has broken through a six-week-old downward resistance line, which now acts as support. The steady RSI also adds to the positive outlook. For the bullish trend to continue, GBPJPY needs to break above the upper boundary of the ongoing triangle pattern, near 192.00. If this happens, the next significant hurdle will be the 200-day moving average at 194.55. A break above this could push prices toward the late July high of around 199.50 and possibly even the 200.00 mark. On the downside, key support levels are around 189.80, 188.65 (100-day moving average), and 186.50 (previous resistance line). If GBPJPY falls below 186.50, it could drop to the monthly low of 180.10. Besides technical factors, GBPJPY buyers should also watch for upcoming data releases on Tokyo inflation, Japan's industrial production, unemployment rate, and retail trade this Thursday.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD buyers can ignore pullback from one-month highGBPUSD snaps a three-day winning streak by easing from its highest level in a month as the US Dollar licks its wounds at the multi-month low. Despite this retreat, the Cable pair is still trading within a long-term upward trend channel and above important support levels. The positive signals from the RSI and MACD suggest that the Pound Sterling could still rise. The immediate support is a 10-day-old rising support line surrounding 1.2880, with further support at 1.2800 from the 50-SMA. If the price drops further, the next supports are at 1.2675 (200-SMA) and 1.2450 (trend channel bottom). On the upside, the GBPUSD pair’s ability to break through the yearly high and the upper trend channel near 1.3045-50 will be tested to keep buyers on the table. The 1.3000 level is also a key resistance point, with the potential to push towards 1.3100 and the mid-2023 peak of around 1.3145 later on. Overall, GBPUSD remains an appealing option for buyers, even if short-term gains slow down.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bounces off 100-SMA but bears stay hopefulThe GBPUSD saw its first daily gain in three days on Wednesday, bouncing back from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This move shows the 100-SMA support level at 1.2682 is holding strong, and the descending RSI (14) indicates the downtrend is weak. However, the Pound Sterling’s continued dip below the 50-SMA and previous support level near 1.2785-2800, along with bearish MACD signals, keep sellers hopeful. If the price stays above 1.2800, the March peak around 1.2900 and the top of a 10-month-old upward trend channel near 1.3030 will be challenging for buyers. On the other hand, the 100-SMA and 200-SMA are limiting the GBPUSD's short-term decline, with support around 1.2680 and 1.2650. After that, the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels from the pair's July-October 2023 drop, near 1.2590 and 1.2455, will be key for sellers. Overall, Pound Sterling buyers can stay in control as long as the 10-month-long upward trend channel, which ranges from 1.3030 to 1.2440, remains intact. In summary, GBPUSD is expected to test the sellers, but for the bullish trend to continue, it needs to stay above 1.2800.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPJPY rebound appears elusive below 200-SMAGBPJPY portrays a corrective bounce off the lowest level in seven months while recovering from a 10-month-old ascending support line. The rebound also takes clues from the oversold RSI (14) line and the market’s consolidation mode after a heavy slump. While the aforementioned clues suggest a continuation of the quote’s further recovery, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s successful trading below the 200-SMA support of 191.80 keep the sellers hopeful. Even if the buyers manage to cross the 200-SMA hurdle, a previous support line from March 2023, near 194.50 by the press time, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, rising trend lines from July and October of 2023, close to 182.50 and 180.00 in that order, restrict the short-term downside of the GBPJPY pair. Following that, the December 2023 low of 178.30 and the July 2023 low near 176.30 will entertain the pair sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained weakness past 176.30 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the 170.00 psychological magnet. Overall, GBPJPY consolidates the previous heavy fall but the resumption of a bullish trend is far from the table.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD drops to resistance-turned-support with eyes on Fed, BoEGBPUSD remains pressured after refreshing a three-week low the previous day. In doing so, the Cable pair extends the mid-week retreat from a year-long horizontal resistance while posting the first daily closing beneath the 21-SMA since July 02, 2024. Apart from that, the bearish MACD signals and the RSI line’s hovering around the 50.00 region also suggest the Pound Sterling’s further weakness. However, a previous resistance line stretched from late July 2023, close to 1.2835 at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the quote. Following that, 50-SMA and a three-month-old ascending trend line, respectively near 1.2780 and 1.2760, will act as the final defenses of buyers before giving control to the sellers. Meanwhile, GBPUSD buyers will need validation from the 21-SMA hurdle of 1.2872 and monetary policy announcements of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE). Even so, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 downturn and the aforementioned horizontal resistance region, close to 1.2910 and 1.3000 in that order, will be tough nuts to crack for the Pound Sterling bulls. If the Cable pair stays firmer past 1.3000, the previous yearly peak surrounding 1.3145 will be in the spotlight. To sum up, the GBPUSD pair is likely to decline further but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.3000, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in a year ahead of the UK’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line as buyers struggle around a one-year-old horizontal resistance zone, close to 1.2995-3000. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, now support around 1.2840, keeps the bulls hopeful. Even if the pair drops beneath the 1.2840 resistance-turned-support, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2627 will be the last defense of the bulls. It should be observed that the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the quote’s July-October 2023 downturn, respectively near 1.2910 and 1.2720, are additional downside filters to watch during the bear run. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need validation from the upbeat UK inflation clues and the 1.2995-3000 upside hurdle to keep the reins. Following that, the Pound Sterling could rise toward the previous yearly high of 1.3142. However, the 1.3100 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3142, the late 2021 swing low of around 1.3150-55 and the 1.3200 round figure can test the bulls before directing them toward the January 2022 low of near 1.3355. Overall, GBPUSD appears overdue for a pullback but the bullish trend could remain intact.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD pokes key upside hurdles as UK/US PMI, Fed Minutes loomGBPUSD struggles to defend the five-day uptrend early Wednesday as traders await key activity numbers from the UK and the US, as well as Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. It’s worth noting that the US Dollar’s weakness past Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech propelled the quote’s previous rebound from a two-month-old horizontal support, enabling buyers to poke the 100-bar SMA. Also underpinning the upside bias are the firmer RSI conditions and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA’s bearish cross of the 200-SMA, known as the death cross, challenges the Cable buyers unless crossing the broader moving average, namely the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2715. Following that, the mid-June swing high of around 1.2740 and 1.2800 become imminent targets for the Pound Sterling buyers before aiming for the previous monthly high of around 1.2860. Meanwhile, GBPUSD sellers need firmer US data and hawkish Fed Minutes, as well as a successful break of the aforementioned two-month-old horizontal support surrounding 1.2610-15. Following that, the Cable bears will aim for the 1.2550 and the 1.2500 thresholds ahead of challenging May’s bottom surrounding 1.2445. It should be observed that the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness past 1.2445 will make it vulnerable to challenge the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.2300. To sum up, the GBPUSD bulls are at a crossroads and need a fundamental push to keep the reins.
by MTradingGlobal
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GBPUSD stays on bear’s radar ahead of UK inflation, BoEGBPUSD stays defensive after recovering from a one-month low in the last two days. That said, the Cable pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the trader’s cautious mood ahead of the UK’s top-tier data/events, namely Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements. However, the quote’s sustained trading beneath a nine-week-old ascending trend channel and a convergence of the 50 and 100-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keep the Pound Sterling sellers hopeful. Even if the pair manage to cross the aforementioned EMA confluence of around 1.2725-30 and also trade successfully beyond the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.2765 at the latest, a three-week-old ascending resistance line surrounding 1.2885 will challenge the upside momentum. On the flip side, a fortnight-long horizontal support region surrounding 1.2640 and the 1.2600 threshold restricts short-term declines of the GBPUSD pair. Following that, the previous monthly low of nearly 1.2445 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.2300 may entertain the Pound Sterling sellers. In a case where the Cable pair remains bearish past 1.2300, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward the late 2023 low of near 1.2035 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet. To sum up, the GBPUSD pair’s latest rebound appears elusive as it keeps the previous week’s downside break of technical supports, now resistances. Also favoring the pair sellers is an absence of oversold RSI and likely downbeat UK catalysts.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD defends week-start recovery as UK employment data loomsGBPUSD stays defensive above 1.2700 as traders await the UK’s monthly employment data early Tuesday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling keeps the previous day’s recovery from a seven-week-old rising support line and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Monday’s rebound also justifies an uptick in the RSI (14) line but fails to gather momentum amid bearish MACD signals. As a result, the Cable pair is likely to mark another attempt to cross a descending resistance line from July 2023, close to the 1.2800 threshold at the latest. However, any further upside appears lacking acceptance, which if takes place could challenge the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895 and the 1.2900 round figure. Should the buyers keep the reins past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and late 2023 peak of 1.3142 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, the 21-day EMA level of 1.2710 and the aforementioned rising support line, close to the 1.2700 mark, restrict the short-term downside of the GBPUSD pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness beneath 1.2700 will direct sellers toward the early May swing high of nearly 1.2635 and then to the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s July-October 2023 fall, near 1.2590. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of around 1.2455 and an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023, near 1.2400, will act as the final defense of the bulls. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery ahead of the UK employment data but the upside room appears limited, which in turn suggests the need for strongly positive statistics to defend the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD crosses key resistance to refresh 11-week highGBPUSD rises to the highest level since mid-March by crossing an 11-month-old descending resistance line, now immediate support near 1.2800. The bullish MACD signals and the Pound Sterling’s ability to trade successfully beyond the 100-SMA also underpin the upside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI (14) line challenges the quote’s further advances, highlighting the yearly peak marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, as the key upside hurdles. In a case where the Cable remains firmer past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be the last defense of the bears before directing buyers toward the late 2023 peak of surrounding 1.3145. Conversely, a daily closing beneath 1.2800 will defy the GBPUSD pair’s latest resistance break. The same could direct the sellers toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October 2023 downturn, near 1.2720. Even so, the Pound Sterling bears need to wait for a clear downside break of the six-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2655, as well as the 100-SMA level of 1.2635, to retake control. Should the Cable drop beneath 1.2635, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward February’s low marked around 1.2520. Overall, GBPUSD gains the buyer’s attention as it clears the key upside hurdle. However, the room toward the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Overbought RSI, 1.2810 hurdle will test GBPUSD bullsGBPUSD rises for the third consecutive day while refreshing the two-month high. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers a pullback in the US Dollar, as well as the recent hawkish commentary from the Bank of England (BoE) officials. However, the overbought RSI (14) conditions will join a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, close to 1.2810 by the press time, to test the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2810, the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, will precede the 1.3000 psychological magnet to attract the bids. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the GBPUSD pair’s July-October downside, near 1.2720, acts as immediate support to watch during a fresh pullback. Following that, April’s high near 1.2710 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2630 should lure the Pound Sterling bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the Cable pair’s bearish trend remains elusive unless witnessing a daily closing beneath a convergence of the 50-SMA and a five-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2580 as we write. Overall, the GBPUSD pair marches toward the key upside hurdle as most traders return to their desks after a long weekend in the US and the UK.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls jostle with key upside hurdles within rising wedgeGBPUSD struggles to extend the biggest weekly gains since early March while confronting a five-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2700-2710 early Monday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes clues from the overbought RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals while hovering near the upper end of the one-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside clearance of 1.2710 won’t be an open invitation to the Cable buyers as the stated wedge’s top-line surrounding 1.2720 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the quote’s advances toward the late March high of near 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of around 1.2895 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the oscillators suggest a pullback in the GBPUSD price and hence a horizontal resistance area comprising the tops marked since early May, close to 1.2635-45, gains the market’s attention. In a case where the Cable prices drop beneath the 1.2635, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-April fall, surrounding the 1.2600 threshold, will lure the sellers. Above all, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, close to 1.2565-60, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall targeting the area surrounding mid-1.2100s. In summary, the GBPUSD pair will likely witness a pullback in the prices but the bears need validation from the 1.2565-60 and the UK inflation/PMI data.
by MTradingGlobal
2
100-SMA prods GBPUSD bears on BoE Super ThursdayGBPUSD stays defensive at the lowest level in a week, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements, as well as the quarterly monetary policy report that makes the day a “Super Thursday”. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA puts a short-term trading floor under the prices near 1.2480, especially amid the downbeat RSI suggesting a pause in the previous fall. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained downside break of a two-week-old support line, now immediate resistance surrounding 1.2515, and clear trading beneath a downward-sloping trend line resistance stretched since mid-March, at 1.2585 at the latest, keeps the sellers hopeful. Even if the Pound Sterling gains support from the BoE and rises past 1.2585, the monthly high of 1.2634 will be the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 100-SMA support of 1.2480, as well as the BoE’s inability to convince the GBPUSD bulls, will resume a south run targeting the 1.2400 threshold. In a case where the Cable bears keep the reins past 1.2400, the yearly bottom marked in April surrounding 1.2300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s March-May moves, near 1.2265, will be in the spotlight ahead of the late 2023 bottom of near 1.2067. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains in a bearish trend on the BoE Super Thursday despite the latest consolidation. Hence, even a surprise rebound should not be considered a bullish sign.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bull’s journey to retake control appears long and bumpyGBPUSD grinds higher past 50% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to March 2024 upside as traders await more clues about Friday’s US employment report for April. In doing so, the Pound Sterling extends the late April rebound from a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2365, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. That said, the bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line also underpin the Cable pair’s recovery moves targeting the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2550. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2550, a five-month-old support-turned-resistance line around 1.2570 will test the buyers before directing them to a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from March, close to 1.2600. Following that, the 100-SMA hurdle of 1.2650 will act as the final defense of the sellers ahead of giving up control. Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s pullback could aim for the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios, respectively around 1.2465 and 1.2365. However, Pound Sterling’s fall past 1.2365 will make it vulnerable to drop toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.2300. It should be noted that the pair’s weakness past 1.2300 won’t hesitate to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2220 and the late 2023 low of around 1.2035. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery but there are multiple resistances to challenge the bull’s confidence.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebounds from Golden Fibonacci ratio, “Falling Wedge” eyeGBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run. On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037. Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal