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USDJPY fades month-old bullish trend on BoJ’s cautious pauseUSDJPY snapped a three-day winning streak even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held benchmark interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, after its two-day monetary policy meeting early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair also challenged a five-week-old bullish trend channel. Bulls lack acceptance but bears have a bumpy road ahead… Apart from the BoJ’s hawkish halt, sluggish MACD and RSI conditions, along with the USDJPY pair’s inability to cross a month-old rising resistance line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-September downside, suggest a weakening of bullish bias. A slew of key supports, however, might challenge the sellers before taking control. Key technical levels to watch The aforementioned upward-sloping trend channel’s bottom line, close to 152.80, gains the immediate attention of the sellers ahead of the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 152.20 at the latest. Following that, the USDJPY sellers can aim for the 150.00 threshold and the 200-EMA support of 149.00. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 149.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio and September’s peak, respectively near 148.10 and 147.20, will act as the final defense of the buyers. On the contrary, USDJPY needs a clear upside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 153.45, also known as the golden ratio, to convince buyers. Even so, a month-long ascending trend line and a horizontal hurdle established since mid-July, close to 154.80 and 155.30-40, will challenge the Yen pair’s further advances. If the prices remain firmer past 155.40, the odds of witnessing a rally toward the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line surrounding 157.70 can’t be ruled out. Focus on US data As the BoJ’s cautious stance weighs on USDJPY buyers, traders will watch upcoming US inflation and employment data for further direction.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY crosses 200-SMA to refresh 12-week high, focus on 152.00USDJPY has reached its highest point since July 31, rising for the third straight day after breaking the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) early Wednesday. However, a seven-month-old resistance zone around 151.85-152.00 limits further gains of the Yen pair. Bulls need a strong push The US Dollar’s strength and bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful. Yet, overbought RSI conditions and tough resistance mean a significant boost is necessary for further upward movement. Without this, the pair could quickly drop below the 200-SMA, leading to short-term selling. Key technical levels to watch In addition to the 200-SMA support at 151.35 and the resistance zone around 151.85-152.00, several important technical levels are crucial for USDJPY traders. The 50% Fibonacci level near 150.80 will attract sellers if the price drops below the 200-SMA, along with the key threshold at 150.00. A drop to around 149.40 is possible if sellers gain control, and if the price falls past this level, September’s high of 147.20 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 144.85 will come into focus. On the upside, a close above 152.00 could encourage buyers to target the 61.8% Fibonacci level, or Golden Ratio, near 153.40. If momentum continues, potential targets may include June’s low of 154.55 and the 78.6% level at 157.20. Decisive move ahead… While buyers seem in control, the struggle to surpass key resistance amid overbought conditions and upcoming PMI data could lead to a necessary pullback. Traders should proceed with caution as the next moves in USDJPY will be crucial.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Bulls run out of steam, focus on US Retail Sales, 150.00USDJPY is stuck in a tight weekly trading range near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), hovering between 149.30 and 150.00, as traders are on the lookout for the US Retail Sales report coming Thursday. Buyers need a strong boost to keep the reins In addition to the nervousness ahead of the data release and the 200-day EMA, the fading bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI near overbought levels show that USDJPY is struggling to attract buyers. However, trading above key EMAs makes it tough for sellers to gain control. While bulls are likely to stay in charge, a pullback seems expected unless the upcoming data gives the US Dollar a lift. Key technical levels to watch If the US Dollar falls after the data, watch for the 149.30 level comprising the lower band of the immediate trading range and the 200-day EMA as key support. Following that, a quick drop to the 147.30-20 zone, including the 50-day EMA, is possible. However, the quote’s sustained weakness past 147.20 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its July-September downside, close to 144.85. On the upside, buyers need to break above 150.00 to maintain control. If they do, a rise towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at approximately 150.80 and 153.50 is likely. Buyers are still optimistic, but it all hinges on the US data Despite challenges for USDJPY buyers, solid support levels and potentially positive US data hint at further gains. This is especially true with the Bank of Japan's easing hawkish stance and expectations for fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY: Sellers pay attention to 146.40, Fed Minutes and US CPIEarly Tuesday, USDJPY remains weak after retreating from a seven-week high. The pair defends the previous day’s pullback from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as traders await key events this week, including the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Bulls remain in the driver’s seat Despite the pre-data consolidation and retreat from the 100-EMA, USDJPY's stronghold above the 50-EMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) suggest an overall upside bias. Important technical levels to watch USDJPY faces immediate downside support in the 147.35-20 range, but the key level to watch is the 50-EMA near 146.40. A break below this could lead to a quick drop to 145.00 and the late September low around 141.65. The 140.45-20 area and the psychological level at 140.00 may pose strong resistance for sellers. On the upside, a break above the 100-EMA around 148.75 won’t be enough for buyers to regain control, as resistance from the 200-EMA and mid-August high near 149.40 will be crucial. If USDJPY stays above 149.40, the 150.00 mark and early 2024 high near 150.90 will be key targets for bulls. Data/events are the key USDJPY's technical outlook is bullish, supported by a hawkish Fed stance following recent comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and the US employment report. However, growing concerns about the Bank of Japan, potential softness in US inflation data, and Powell's challenges in maintaining a hawkish tone could attract sellers to the Yen pair.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Recovery remains elusive below 146.30On Tuesday morning, USDJPY gained momentum, continuing its recovery from a support level that had been holding for two months. It’s getting closer to the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while still within a bearish trend that started in early August. This rise reflects the US Dollar's bounce after Fed Chair Jerome Powell eased expectations for two more 0.50% rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, traders look forward to upcoming US employment data and Japanese reports to see how the market will move. Bulls flex muscles for a long road ahead… In addition to bouncing off the two-month support zone, an upward trend in the RSI (14) and a potential bullish crossover on the MACD are boosting the USDJPY's rise toward the key EMA. However, the ongoing bearish trend channel and differing monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could create challenges for the bulls. Key technical levels to watch… In the short term, the 200-EMA around 144.75 and the upper line of the bearish channel near 146.30 are significant hurdles for USDJPY buyers. If they push past these levels, the pair could rise toward the mid-August high around 149.40 and possibly hit the 150.00 mark. It's important to note that the 152.00 level seems to be the last stronghold for Yen sellers. On the flip side, the horizontal support area between 141.75 and 141.65 offers some stability for USDJPY in the short term, protecting it from a drop toward the monthly low and the bottom of the bearish channel near 139.55 and 138.75. If the pair breaks below 138.75, the mid-2023 low of around 137.20 may serve as the final defense for buyers. The road toward the north appears long and bumpy While technical indicators hint at a potential recovery for USDJPY, the underlying fundamentals pose challenges for a sustained bullish move. Buyers should be cautious before making large investments.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Bears have strong reasons to regain controlAs Yen traders return from a long weekend, the USDJPY is testing its recent dip from a five-week-old downward resistance line, influenced by a rebound in the US Dollar. It’s worth noting that the quote’s recovery in the last week benefited from positive signals from the RSI and MACD indicators, bouncing back from a nine-month horizontal support zone. Sellers keep the reins While USDJPY buyers are making their presence felt, a bearish RSI divergence and a moving average crossover, combined with the resistance line, keep sellers optimistic about potential downward moves. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the 200-EMA, signaling a bearish trend. Additionally, the higher high on the indicator contrasts with the lower high in prices, reinforcing the bearish RSI divergence. Key technical levels to watch Sellers will gain confidence if USDJPY breaks below a seven-week horizontal support area around 141.70-80. However, the lows from December 2023 and September 2024 pose a challenge for bears at 140.20-139.60. If the pair drops below 139.60, it could test the mid-2023 low near 137.30. On the flip side, buyers will initially target the falling resistance line around 144.25. If successful, they may then aim for the monthly high and late August peak near 147.20 and 149.40, respectively. Additionally, the 150.00 level acts as an important barrier for any upward movement. Bulls face more challenges than bears Whether through technical signals or the differing monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), USDJPY sellers face a relatively smoother journey compared to buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Sellers remain in driver’s seat despite BoJ’s status quoEarly Friday, USDJPY reverses the previous day’s run-up to the highest level in a fortnight as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) leaves monetary policy unchanged, as expected. Oscillators, technical hurdles push back buyers within falling wedge USDJPY recently reversed from a six-week resistance level, and the RSI is pulling back while the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover, which keeps sellers optimistic. Additionally, the price remains below the 200-Exponential Moving Average, making it harder for Yen buyers. However, a bullish falling wedge pattern that has formed since early August could encourage buyers. Technical levels to watch The USDJPY pair's drop from a key resistance level, along with weak indicators, suggests sellers will target below 142.00. Key levels to watch are the psychological mark at 140.00 and the monthly low around 139.55. If buyers can’t hold above the falling wedge's bottom near 139.30, the price could drop to the mid-2023 low around 137.20. On the flip side, the 1.5-month-old horizontal resistance area near 143.70-144.00 appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bulls. Following that, the quote’s quick jump toward the stated bullish wedge’s top line around 145.00 can’t be ruled out. If the price stays above 145.00, it could aim for 156.00, but breaking the 200-EMA at 145.30 is essential for that rally. What next? Given the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the quote’s sustained trading below the key resistances, the USDJPY sellers are likely to have some more days to cheer.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: "Death Cross" makes sellers optimisticUSDJPY ends a four-day decline and rebounds from its lowest point in a month as traders start the US inflation week with mixed feelings, especially after a disappointing employment report on Friday. Sellers are in control Despite the brief pause to recover from an ascending support line from late December 2023, the "Death Cross" on the moving averages and a possible bearish cross on the MACD suggest that sellers remain dominant. Technical levels to watch Given that the RSI is nearly oversold and the market is adjusting its previous movements, USDJPY might continue its recent recovery towards a resistance zone from a month ago, around 143.45-60. After that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early August, near 146.60, will challenge buyers before they can take full control. If they succeed, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from July 2023 to 2024, around 149.60, and the 200-SMA level at 151.05 could attract more buying interest. On the other hand, sellers might look for a daily close below a long-term rising support line, around 141.90. They should also watch for the late 2023 low around 140.25 and the 140.00 level, which could provide additional support before aiming for the mid-2023 low of 137.25. What next? The USDJPY pair might see a rebound as the market consolidates before the important US inflation data is released on Thursday. However, the bearish trend will continue unless the price stays below the 200-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Bears flex muscles within five-week-old triangleThe USDJPY currency pair has fallen for the first time in five days after hitting a resistance level on a one-month-old chart pattern. This drop reflects a shift to safer investments as traders await important economic data and deal with the return of full trading activity after a long weekend in the US and Canada. Buyers losing ground Along with the change in market sentiment, a few technical indicators suggest the USDJPY might keep falling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving out of the overbought zone, and the MACD is showing less bullish momentum. However, sellers need to see the price drop below 144.20 to gain control. Technical levels to watch The important support level is 144.20. If the price falls below this, it might continue to drop. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.10 is another key level that limits immediate losses. Additional support levels are 144.00 and the August low of around 143.40. If the price drops further, it could target the seven-month low of 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00. On the contrary, an upside break of the stated triangle’s top line, currently around 147.30, isn’t an open invitation to the USDJPY buyers as the 200-SMA hurdle of 148.80 acts as an extra upside filter. Also challenging the Yen pair buyers is mid-August swing high near 149.40 and the 150.00 round figure. What next? The USDJPY is likely to continue falling and might hit new lows for the year. However, the sellers need confirmation from upcoming US economic data and a break below the key support level of 144.20.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Off 13-month-old support during short-term downtrendUSDJPY has bounced back from a key support level that’s been in place for 13 months but remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair faces resistance from this old support line, now turned resistance, and the 21-day moving average (SMA). USDJPY recovery appears unreal… Although USDJPY is recovering from significant trendline support of around 143.70, indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a strong bullish trend may not be likely. Additionally, market uncertainty before upcoming Japanese economic data and the US Core PCE Price Index (a key inflation measure) adds to the uncertainty. Key technical levels to watch… USDJPY pair’s recovery appears less convincing unless it crosses the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.20. That said, the 21-SMA and the multi-month-old previous support line, respectively near 146.40 and 149.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the buyers before giving them control. On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 143.70 trend line support will direct the USDJPY bears toward the late 2023 bottom surrounding 140.45 and the 140.00 psychological magnet. In a case where the prices remain bearish past 140.00, an area comprising levels marked since March 2023, close to 137.90-70, will be the last defense of the buyers. What next? USDJPY is at a critical support level. A short-term bounce is possible, but the chance of further declines is higher unless the pair breaks through the 151.20 resistance.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPJPY bulls need validation from 192.00 and Japan dataThe GBPJPY currency pair is making gains as it moves within a two-week upward trend, showing renewed optimism early on Tuesday. This rise supports the bullish trend that started in early August and counters the previous indecision seen last week. Currently, GBPJPY is trading above the 100-day moving average and has broken through a six-week-old downward resistance line, which now acts as support. The steady RSI also adds to the positive outlook. For the bullish trend to continue, GBPJPY needs to break above the upper boundary of the ongoing triangle pattern, near 192.00. If this happens, the next significant hurdle will be the 200-day moving average at 194.55. A break above this could push prices toward the late July high of around 199.50 and possibly even the 200.00 mark. On the downside, key support levels are around 189.80, 188.65 (100-day moving average), and 186.50 (previous resistance line). If GBPJPY falls below 186.50, it could drop to the monthly low of 180.10. Besides technical factors, GBPJPY buyers should also watch for upcoming data releases on Tokyo inflation, Japan's industrial production, unemployment rate, and retail trade this Thursday.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY sellers keep eyes on 144.00 and FOMC MinutesThe USDJPY pair is currently recovering from its lowest point in two weeks and breaking a three-day losing streak. The US Dollar is bouncing back from a yearly low as traders await the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Despite this bounce, the Yen pair is still trading below important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and shows bearish signs from the MACD indicator, keeping sellers optimistic. If the USDJPY continues to drop, it might soon test the 144.00 support level, which has held for about 12 days. A fall below 144.00 could push the pair towards the July low of around 141.70. However, the Yen pair will need to move past the 50% Fibonacci Extension near 141.30 before targeting 140.00 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension around 139.40-35. On the upside, the 50 and 100 EMAs are likely to cap the USDJPY’s immediate gains, with resistance levels around 147.10 and 148.50. Beyond that, the pair might face resistance at the previous weekly high near 149.40 and the 150.00 level. If it breaks above 150.00, the final resistance points are at the 200-EMA level around 151.15 and the late July swing low near 151.95. In summary, while the USDJPY is currently recovering, the bears remain in control as traders await key news.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eyes another bear run, focus on Japan GDP, US inflationEarly Monday, the USDJPY has risen slightly above 147.00 after its first weekly gain in six weeks. This increase follows a rebound from a seven-month low. The rise is supported by a recovery in the RSI and positive signals from the MACD. However, the pair’s failure to defend a week-long bullish trend channel and its continued trading below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still keeps bears hopeful. Additionally, a downward trend line from early July suggests that sellers still control the market. The USDJPY is likely to stay under pressure unless it can rise above a resistance line near 150.80. Currently, the 50-EMA and the lower end of the rising channel, around 147.85-90, are key levels to watch. The 150.00 level may offer additional resistance, and if the pair can surpass 150.80, it might target around 155.50. On the downside, immediate support levels to watch are 145.50 and 143.30. If the price falls further, the monthly low near 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00 could come into play. If the USDJPY drops below 140.00, it might test the mid-2023 low around 137.25. While technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for USDJPY, traders should be cautious due to upcoming economic data releases, including Japan’s Q2 GDP and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
by MTradingGlobal
GBPJPY rebound appears elusive below 200-SMAGBPJPY portrays a corrective bounce off the lowest level in seven months while recovering from a 10-month-old ascending support line. The rebound also takes clues from the oversold RSI (14) line and the market’s consolidation mode after a heavy slump. While the aforementioned clues suggest a continuation of the quote’s further recovery, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s successful trading below the 200-SMA support of 191.80 keep the sellers hopeful. Even if the buyers manage to cross the 200-SMA hurdle, a previous support line from March 2023, near 194.50 by the press time, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, rising trend lines from July and October of 2023, close to 182.50 and 180.00 in that order, restrict the short-term downside of the GBPJPY pair. Following that, the December 2023 low of 178.30 and the July 2023 low near 176.30 will entertain the pair sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained weakness past 176.30 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the 170.00 psychological magnet. Overall, GBPJPY consolidates the previous heavy fall but the resumption of a bullish trend is far from the table.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY slumps to seven-month low amid risk aversion, BoJ biasUSDJPY begins the week on a back foot while declining for the fifth consecutive day to the lowest since early January. The Yen pair’s latest fall could be linked to the market’s risk-off mood and concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) further rate hikes versus the fresh bias about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) requirement for more rate cuts. Also keeping the bears hopeful is the quote’s clear downside break of an upward-sloping support line from January 2023. With this, USDJPY bears are completely in control and can move further toward the late 2023 bottom of around 140.25, quickly followed by the 140.00 threshold. However, the oversold RSI (14) line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s January 2023 to July 2024 upside, near 140.40, can challenge the quote’s further declines. If the pair drops past 140.00, the odds of witnessing a slump toward July 2023 low of near 137.20 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from a 50% Fibonacci ratio of 144.55. Following that, the lows marked during February and March of the current year, respectively near 145.90 and 146.50, will precede the multi-month-old support-turned-resistance of surrounding 148.60 to challenge the Yen pair buyers. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the rejection of the latest bearish trend signals will only be possible if the quote stays successfully above the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.60. Overall, the USDJPY pair sneaked into the bearish trend but the road toward the south is long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY drops and pops from 200-SMA on BoJ rate hike, Fed eyedUSDJPY defends the previous day’s retreat from a three-week-old falling resistance line even after the pair’s volatile move post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcements. It’s worth noting that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its benchmark rate to 0.25%, from 0.10%, on Wednesday and drowned the Yen pair toward the 200-SMA during the first few minutes. However, the Japanese central bank’s decision to taper bond purchases and cautious tone of economic assessment triggered the quote’s rebound afterward. The US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting also allowed the pair to drop to a multi-day low before bouncing off the key moving average of 151.60. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly oversold RSI (14) line signals limited downside room for the pair past the 200-SMA support of 151.60. The same highlights the aforementioned short-term resistance line surrounding 153.60 as an immediate hurdle to watch for the buyer’s entry. Following that, the pair’s gradual run-up toward the 100-SMA and previous support line stretched from December 2023, around 155.65 and 158.80 respectively. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 151.60 will need validation from 5.5-month-old horizontal support near 151.00-150.90 to keep the sellers on board. Following that, the quote’s weakness toward the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of late 2023 to July 2024 upside, surrounding 148.50, and then to March’s low of near 146.45 can’t be ruled out. It should be observed that the 150.00 psychological magnet will act as an extra filter toward the south. Overall, USDJPY fails to cheer the BoJ’s rate hike and bounces off the key SMA amid oversold RSI conditions. The same suggests the quote’s further recovery if buyers manage to cross the immediate resistance line and gain support from the hawkish FOMC announcements.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY extends recovery from key supports, US Retail Sales eyedUSDJPY rises the most among the G10 currency pairs early Tuesday while stretching the previous day’s recovery from an upward-sloping support line from late December 2023 and the 50-SMA. Adding strength to the Yen pair’s rebound is the improvement in the RSI (14) line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the 21-SMA hurdle, currently around 160.00, challenge the bulls ahead of the US Retail Sales for June. Apart from the short-term Simple Moving Average (SMA), an 11-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 160.30 will also tame the pair’s further upside. It’s worth mentioning that multiple tops marked since the start of July and ascending trend line from late April, respectively near 161.80 and 162.35, act as the final defense of the pair sellers. Meanwhile, 50-SMA and the aforementioned ascending trend line from late December 2023, close to 157.90 and 157.60 in that order, put a floor under the USDJPY pair for a short term. In a case where the Yen pair closes beneath 157.60, it becomes vulnerable to test the previous monthly low of around 154.50. However, May’s low of 151.85 and early 2024 peak surrounding 150.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the sellers afterward. To sum up, USDJPY remains in a bullish trend ahead of the key US data but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebounds from 157.80-75 support confluence, US data eyedUSDJPY pares the biggest daily loss in 10 weeks early Friday as traders await more clues for easing price pressure in the US, namely preliminary readings of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and Consumer Inflation Expectations for July. It should be noted that a one-year low of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) drowned the Yen pair the previous day while mixed Japan statistics and the market’s consolidation favored the quote’s latest recovery. That said, a convergence of the 50-SMA and bottom line of a 2.5-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, around 157.80-75, recently triggered the pair’s rebound as RSI took a U-turn from the below-50 zone. However, bearish MACD signals could join the 160.20-30 region comprising highs and lows marked since April to challenge the bulls before directing them to the fresh high since 1986, which in turn highlights the aforementioned wedge’s top line surrounding 162.25. On the flip side, the USDJPY pair’s inability to defend the latest rebound will shift focus back to the 157.80-75 key support. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line support from late December 2023, close to 157.30 at the latest, will be the last defense of the buyers. In a case where the Yen pair remains bearish past 157.30, its subsequent fall to the previous monthly low near 154.50 and then to May’s bottom surrounding 151.85 can’t be ruled out. That said, the 150.00 psychological magnet will be the final post for the sellers to conquer ahead of gaining the throne. To sum up, USDJPY remains in a bullish trajectory despite the previous day’s heavy fall. The downside move needs validation from 157.30 and the US/Japan fundamentals.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY grinds within a fortnight-old bullish channelUSDJPY stays mildly bid around 161.00 early Monday as traders await the key US data/events scheduled for release during the week. In doing so, the Yen pair defends the previous three-week uptrend while approaching the highest level since 1986, marked the last week, by being within a fortnight-long bullish trend channel. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI conditions and the sluggish MACD signals could join the market’s cautious mood and recently firmer Japan data to challenge the buyers around the multi-year high. The latest peak of nearly 161.30 appears an immediate upside hurdle to watch during further advances. Following that, the aforementioned rising trend channel’s top line surrounding 161.60 may test the bulls targeting the late 1986 high of 164.50. Conversely, a convergence of the bullish channel’s bottom line and the year 1990’s high, close to 160.40, appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. Even if the Yen pair sellers manage to conquer the 160.40 hurdle, April’s peak of 160.20 and the 160.00 psychological magnet will challenge the sellers before giving them control. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 160.00, the 1.5-month-old resistance-turned-support and the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 159.60 and 158.75, will be the last defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains within a bullish trajectory but the buyers are likely to have a long and bumpy road ahead.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eases within the bullish channel, sellers await 159 breakUSDJPY defends the previous day’s retreat from a two-month high as traders await Tuesday’s US Confederation Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence figures for June. In doing so, the Yen pair remains mildly offered between the upper line of a seven-week-old rising trend channel and an upward-sloping previous resistance line stretched from early May. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI’s pullback from the overbought territory joins a receding bullish power of the MACD signals to suggest further declines of the quote. The same highlights the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line surrounding 159.00 as a break of which will welcome sellers targeting a two-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 157.90-70. However, the bears should remain cautious unless witnessing a daily closing beneath the 156.30 support confluence comprising the 50-SMA and bottom line of the previously stated bullish trend channel. Following that, the quote’s weakness toward the monthly low of 154.52 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, USDJPY bulls should wait for a clear rejection of the bullish trend channel by providing a daily closing beyond 160.00. Even so, the yearly high of 160.20 and the 1990 peak surrounding 160.40 will join the overbought RSI conditions to challenge the buyers before directing them to the 161.00 round figure. If the Yen pair remains firmer past 161.00, the late 1986 peak of around 163.95 and 164.00 will be on the buyer’s radar. Overall, USDJPY remains in the bullish trajectory despite the likelihood of a short-term pullback in the prices.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY pokes key resistance amid mixed market, light calendarUSDJPY struggles to defend a two-day winning streak and the weekly gains while jostling with a seven-week-old symmetrical triangle’s resistance line early Monday. In doing so, the Yen pair also prints an inability to cross a broad resistance zone comprising tops marked since late April, around 158.00-158.50. However, the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 200-bat Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the upbeat RSI (14) line keep buyers hopeful beyond witnessing a clear downside break of 156.00. Even so, the aforementioned triangle’s bottom line and an upward-sloping trend line support from late March, respectively near 155.60 and 153.40, will act as the final defense of the bulls before giving control to the bears. Meanwhile, fresh buying in the USDJPY pair will gain momentum beyond 158.50, which in turn could direct buyers toward the 160.00 psychological magnet. However, the latest multi-year peak of 160.20 and the year 1990’s high of near 160.40 could poke the Yen pair buyers afterward. If the quote remains firmer past 160.40, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward the late 1986 peak of 164.50 and then to the 1978 low of 177.00 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY remains in a bullish trajectory despite recent inaction.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY approaches key upside hurdle as Fed, BoJ week beginsUSDJPY extends Friday’s recovery from the 50-SMA while rising toward a six-week-old descending resistance ahead as the week comprising monetary policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) begins with mixed sentiment. It’s worth noting that the Yen pair’s sustained trading above the 50-SMA joins the upbeat RSI (14) and an impending bull cross on the MACD to underpin upside bias. However, a clear break of the aforementioned resistance line close to 157.55 by the press time, becomes necessary to convince buyers. Following that, 158.00, 158.40 and the 160.00 round figure will test the buyers. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 160.00, the year 1990’s peak of 160.40 will be the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of the USDJPY pair’s December 2023 to April 2024 upside, near 155.50, will precede the 50-SMA support of 155.10 and the 155.00 round figure to limit the short-term downside. Should the quote remain bearish past 155.50, an upward-sloping support line from late March, around 153.25 at the latest, will be the key support to watch. It should be observed that a daily close beneath 153.25, as well as a sustained trading beneath the 153.00 threshold, will make the Yen pair vulnerable enough to slump toward the multiple tops marked during late March and early April, near the sub-152.00 region. Overall, the USDJPY remains in the bullish mode as the key week begins.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US. It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
by MTradingGlobal