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USDJPY prints bear flag as Bank of Japan gains attentionUSDJPY is likely to end 2022 on a negative note, despite bracing for the biggest yearly run-up since 2013. However, the Yen pair portrays a bearish chart pattern, a bear flag on the four-hour play as traders keep their eyes on the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Given the downbeat oscillators and hawkish expectations from the BOJ, the bearish chart formation amplifies the downside expectations. As a result, bears could wait for a clear downside break of 134.90, to refresh the monthly low of 133.60. In that case, the August 2020 low near 130.40 and the 130.00 psychological magnet will gain major attention during the south run aiming for the theoretical target surrounding 120.00. Meanwhile, the top line of the stated bear channel, close to 138.50, restricts short-term USDJPY recovery moves. A clear upside break of the same will defy the bearish chart pattern and could poke the 200-SMA surrounding 140.80. In a case where the Yen pair buyers manage to cross the last hurdle, namely the 200-SMA, late November swing high near 142.25 and the 145.20 resistance could flash on their radars. Overall, USDJPY is on the bear’s radar after two years of a bullish move.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY has more room towards the south as it breaks 200-DMAUSDJPY is under immense pressure as it breaks the 200-DMA support, as well as marks the 3.5-month low. Even though the oversold RSI suggests a mild corrective bounce, the trend appears bearish after it broke an upward-sloping support line from late May. That said, the bears currently aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October upside, around 132.00. If the quote fails to rebound from the key Fibonacci retracement level, the August month’s low near 130.40 and the 130.00 round figure may act as the last defense of the buyers. Alternatively, recovery moves need to provide a daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of 134.60 to tease intraday buyers. Even so, a corrective bounce needs to cross the 137.40 resistance confluence comprising the previous support line from May and a monthly descending trend line. Should the quote rises past 137.40, another trend line from October 21, close to 140.25, will be crucial before giving control to buyers. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness further downside towards 132.00 but further downside appears bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bears brace for 136.00A clear downside break of the 100-DMA, as well as a daily closing below July’s peak, keeps USDJPY sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-October upside and an upward-sloping support line from May 24, around 136.00, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, a slump toward the 200-DMA support of 132.70 can’t be ruled out. However, an area comprising multiple levels marked since late April, around 131.25-50, could challenge the pair’s further downside. Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 100-DMA support level surrounding 140.75-80 to trigger short-term corrective buying. Even so, 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements, close to 142.20 and 145.90 in that order, could challenge the USDJPY buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past the 146.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a run-up targeting the fresh 24-year high, currently around 152.00, can’t be ruled out. Overall, USDJPY sellers hold control but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls need to cross 147.70 to stay on the tableUSDJPY poked the year 1998 high on Thursday while piercing a weekly resistance line, staying near the immediate resistance line of late. That said, the RSI is overbought as the pair struggles with the 24-year high near 147.70, which in turn suggests hardships for the further upside move. If the quote crosses the 147.70 hurdle, its run-up towards an upward-sloping trend line from late April, near 149.00, and the 150.00 psychological magnet will become imminent. It’s worth noting, however, that the buyer’s dominance past 150.00 won’t hesitate to challenge the late 1990 peak surrounding 151.65. Meanwhile, sellers could take entries if the USDJPY pair breaks a 2.5-month-old support line, currently around 144.60. Following that, a south-run to late September low near 140.35 and then to the 140.00 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, July’s top near 139.40 could challenge the sellers afterward, failing to do so can draw a gradual south-run towards August month’s bottom close to 130.40. Overall, USDJPY is near the key resistances as the overbought RSI suggests that the bulls are running out of steam. Hence, a pullback is well-expected but the change of trend is off the table unless the quote breaks 144.60.
by MTradingGlobal
The BoJ could intervene again at ANYTIMELast Thursday was an incredibly volatile trading session for the USD/JPY . This volatility was largely caused by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) intervention in the currency markets to defend its depreciating currency, the Japanese Yen. Last week’s move was the first time since 1998 that the BoJ had intervened. There are some parallels between 1998’s intervention and 2022’s. For one, the price level in 1998 was cracking 146.00 when the BoJ stepped in. Before last week’s intervention, the pair was trying to sustain a break above the 145.00 key resistance, almost reaching the 146.00 price level. Where the most recent intervention might diverge is the sustainability of the pair’s downside potential. While last week’s intervention did cause a huge fall in the USD/JPY from 145.90 to 140.35 in one session, it has since found its way back to ~144.00 over the ensuing days. This is because the BoJ’s temporary currency intervention is no match for its unwavering commitment to ultra-low interest rates. Bear in mind that the BoJ may jump back into the currency market at any time to help the yen, and as we have seen, 145.00 is a critical level for the BoJ. Currently, the price for the USDJPY is back on track towards the upside. However, the price is currently contenting with 145.00, a monthly key psychological resistance and an RSI in the 60s. On the other hand, the daily timeframe has a minor candle closure above the 144.50 daily resistance. This closure might indicate a possible continuation of the upside. The current daily candle, however, should have a strong bullish candle close to support this idea. The current candle closing below 144.50 might indicate a consolidation between 144.50 and 142.00 and needs to make an empathic break before we see price make a sustained move in either direction.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY bulls are bracing for 147.00USDJPY has been navigating inside the 300-pip trading range at a 24-year high in the last three weeks. Despite the yen pair’s latest inaction, the lower low on prices joins the lower bottom on the RSI (14), which in turn joins firmer MACD to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside break of 144.75, comprising the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s late March to early August moves, becomes necessary to poke a five-month-old ascending trend line resistance near 147.00. During the rise, the latest swing top around 146.00 could probe the buyers while a successful rise beyond the 147.00 hurdle might flash the 150.00 threshold on the chart. Alternatively, the 21-DMA support around 142.60 may act as an immediate halt during the USDJPY pair’s pullback before highlighting the stated range’s bottom, including the 61.8% FE level near 141.60. In a case where the pair drops below 141.60, the 140.00 round figure and July’s high near 139.40 could lure the bears. It should be noted that the sustained downtrend past 139.40 could drag prices towards the 100-DMA support of 135.70. Overall, USDJPY remains on the buyer’s radar but needs a trigger to activate the next leg to the north.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY stays on the way to 150.00Despite the latest pullback from a 24-year high, the USDJPY remains inside a five-month-old megaphone formation suggesting a further widening of the uptrend. Even so, the overbought RSI (14) suggests a pullback of the yen pair, which in turn highlights a two-month-old horizontal support area surrounding 134.00-134.40. Following that, the 50-DMA and 100-DMA could test the pair sellers around 136.80 and 134.00 respectively. It’s worth noting that the stated megaphone’s lower line, near 132.40, appears the last defense for the pair buyers. Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s late March to early August moves, near 144.75, before challenging the megaphone’s top, close to 145.75. In a case where USDJPY bulls keep reins, the tops marked during the June and August months of 1998, close to 146.80 and 147.70 in that order, could probe the upside momentum towards the 150.00 psychological magnet. Overall, a shift in the market sentiment isn’t a trend change and hence the bulls can keep control.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebound has limited upside roomUSDJPY bounced off 131.25-50 horizontal support area despite multiple failures to cross the 50-DMA, not to forget the monthly resistance line. The recovery moves, however, appear to lack support from the oscillators, which in turn suggests another play of inability to cross the aforementioned key hurdles. Even if the quote manages to cross the one-month-old resistance line and the 50-DMA, respectively near 134.60 and 135.30, the monthly high around 135.60 and June’s peak of 137.00 will be tough challenges for the pair buyers to keep the reins. Meanwhile, a four-month-old horizontal support area close to 131.25-50, comprising the 100-DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-July upside, becomes a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. In a case where the pair drop below 131.25, the monthly bottom of 130.40 and the 130.00 psychological magnet will be important supports for the sellers to watch. Overall, USDJPY consolidates the previous monthly fall but the road to the total recovery is a bumpy one.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY is ready to refresh multi-year highUSDJPY sustains upside break of a weekly resistance line, now support around 134.85, as bulls brace for the fresh multi-year high, currently around 136.70. In doing so, the yen pair could aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 24 to June 16 moves, near 137.20. However, a convergence of the 78.6% FE and the upper line of the monthly bullish channel, near 138.80 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 138.80, the odds of witnessing the 140.00 threshold on the chart can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, pullback moves may retest the resistance-turned-support near 134.90, a break of which could direct USDJPY prices towards the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 133.90. Should the pair drop below 133.90, the sellers could target the 133.00 round figure before challenging the broad support zone around 131.30-40 comprising 200-SMA and multiple levels marked since late April. It’s worth noting that the bear’s dominance past 131.30 won’t hesitate to conquer the 130.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness further upside and can renew the multi-year top marked during the last week. However, RSI conditions could join the 138.80 key hurdle to challenge the advances.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY has limited downside room, BOJ, Fed’s Powell in focusA clear downside break of the fortnight-old support line, favored USDJPY bears in the last few days. However, a convergence of the 100-EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May 24 to June 14 upside, around 132.00, seemed to have triggered the latest rebound. Also acting as short-term key support is a horizontal area comprising tops marked during late April and early May, surrounding 131.25-35. As the RSI (14) bounces off oversold territory, the aforementioned supports could form the pair’s bottom as traders await Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting results and a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Should the quote drop below 131.25, the 61.8% Fibo. level near 129.80 might return to the charts. Meanwhile, a confluence of the 50-EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 133.40, guards the immediate upside. Following that, the support-turned-resistance from early June and the latest peak could challenge the USDJPY buyers around 135.60. If at all the quote rises past 135.60, the late 1998swing highs near 137.30 and 138.30 could probe the bulls before directing them to the 140.00 psychological magnet. On the fundamental side, the BOJ isn’t expected to announce any major changes to its monetary policies, which in turn makes the event less important than Powell’s speech. Though, the current environment of central banks providing hawkish surprises might push the traditional dove, which in turn can entertain USDJPY traders.
by MTradingGlobal