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ADANI PORTS - JOURNEY OF THE SINKING PORTGuys today we are going to discuss about Adani port initially I would would discuss how it was in a uptrend, there after I will show that how we could have identified that it will turn into a down Trend. (Please open this post in a Separate Tab. And using mouse click on the chart and move cursor to the left to see the remaining part of the chart) Adani port was in a uptrend starting from 2017 initially creating series of higher highs and Higher Lows. In this chart, the first two are the base low and base high. The Lows and High thereafter created are used to draw trend lines / channel which is being followed. The points of reversal have been highlighted along with corresponding pattern they are forming. The share followed a fixed channel for 11 Straight months. The details of Highs and Lows during these 11 months are as below: (refer chart as well) Higher Low 1 – No Specific Pattern here. Normal reversal was here. Since we now have 2 Lows (Base Low and Higher Low) these are used to create a trend line . Higher High 1 – The share was near its its historic resistance and created Hangman pattern (Reversal Pattern) and thereby reversed from here. Higher Low 2 – The Share was near its Lower Channel and created an Inside Bar Pattern which indicated reversal. The share moving up thereafter. Higher High 2 – The share was near Its upper channel and created a Doji (Confusion after a series of uptrend) near the resistance, which indicated Confusion after a series of uptrend. Traders were unsure whether the share will continue its upward trend or not and there share started reversing from here. Higher Low 3 – The shared touched the lower channel and the immediately next candle made a Doji / Hammer but it was formed below the Lower Channel. Doji / Hammer indicates weakness in the ongoing trend. So, though share was trading below lower channel, same could not be considered as a breakdown. Also, the share reversed post this. Higher High 3 – The share showed certain consolidation and confusion in the market. So no specific pattern formed here. Higher Low 4 – In the process to make next Low. The share breached Channel and the next 2-3 candles including one big red candle) was formed below the channel thereby confirming breakdown. The share thereafter created Hammer Pattern and reversed from here. Now although On First December it created a higher Low (which indicates uptrend) it gave a channel breakdown. Thereby giving hints of further breakdown. But Since we always follow multiple confirmations, we would not trade a simple breakdown and would require more surety to ensure the same. The share further moved on make a Higher High 4 and reversed with Bearish Engulfing Pattern. The share then continuously moved down and created a Lower Low. As mentioned in the first part, the first indication was the Channel Breakout and Lower Low gave the second confirmation of downfall coming up. Here we should rely on the confirmation and find a good level to short the share. Since the share is near its crucial support, it would be correct to short this share if : 1. It breaks support with Volume 2. If reverses from Support, we should short near next resistance. The share as expected took support of the major support at 350 and reversed from here creating a Bullish Belt Hold Pattern. Since then the share has formed a channel between support and resistance and moving in between. Shorting near resistance and Going long near Support would have been a good strategy. On 22nd the share broke the support with Volume , there confirming the further breakdown.. Historic Support and Resistance have great significance and such levels are always respected by the shares. Further double confirmation should be used while taking position. Every person has different way of analyzing shares. Some follow Candlestick Patterns, Some follow trend-lines, some follow Elliot Wave and there is nothing wrong with any of these methods. Each of these methods is successful in their own and you need to believe in the strategy you believe and religiously follow it. Just to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results. Thanks, i hope this is Helpful. Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :) PS : All views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together. #JOURNEYOFATRADE
NSE:ADANIPORTSEducation
by prathamaggarwal
7
BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! WHERE ARE WE HEADING? (PART 2)THIS IS THE SECOND PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW. Exactly as per our prior observation, On 11 October Nifty and Bank Nifty crashed 300/800 Points at opening and thereafter showed a little recovery. However it ll be incorrect to assume any relief as of now. Now In continuation to the first part, As on 11 October 18, FII has closed their longs amounting to 10K and have further added 6.3K Shorts. Now the earlier shorting has increased to 97K (approx, mind you, on 17 September it was 44K, and Nifty/Bank Nifty fell 400/1100 points to clear that.) I presume with Dollar Increasing, IT Sector is a direct beneficiary. And whatever long positions FII had in Index were in IT Sector. However over the past 2 days, even IT sector has started falling. Reasons for falling IT Sector despite rise in Dollar? Some general correction, and bad results. Tata Elexi despite being a direct beneficiary of Dollar failed to post good results. Also, Even TCS posted just in line results. Mind you These 2 companies were exceeding the estimates in all the prior results. As a result Tata Elxsi fell upto 15% on Result day and TCS fell upto 7-8% before posting result (probably due to bad expectations of result). So, those 10K longs might be pertaining to IT sector which are now being closed. So IT sector might stay in pressure in coming days. Nifty 50 has around 12% allocated to IT Sector. Any drastic fall in IT can drag Nifty big way. The market probably recovered today, so FII could exit their 10K Long positions. Further, as already informed, shorts have been increased to 97K. (6.3K Added today on 11 October) If we talk about call Options. FII Have net 44K Calls in comparison to mind blogging 210K Puts. Put Call Ratio is 5:1. So when do you take 5 Puts and just 1 Call? You already know the answer. Just one advice : Save your money right now. You will get ample of opportunities in the coming month. Trust me ample of. Feel free to ask queries and share concerns. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps. Thanks.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
26
Nifty – Topped out ?After making a high around 11080 levels on Thursday, Nifty NSE:NIFTY witnessed heavy selling pressure and could not hold on to 11000 levels. I can see an Evening Star like formation here with a large Bearish candle. Sold 11100 calls in the morning as soon as it broke 11000. There are multiple supports around 10900 and 10700 levels. However, I think call writers are safe so long as Nifty stays below 11000 levels. (Can think of exit if it bounces back and sustains above 11000) Good opportunity to go short here with a small stop loss. Disclaimer: Views expressed here are my own, and should not be interpreted as an Investment Advice. Please consult your Financial Advisor for investments.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by nano6yogesh
Nifty: July Could Be DecisiveI believe that this month could decide a clear direction for us. This week it had a breakdown below 10700 support level and an important trendline (of course signs of bearishness). But the Friday's pullback was as strong as the breakdown. To my surprise there was no sustained reaction from 10700 and it managed to close above support. What Next? Scenario 1 : We may be retesting the breakdown area. In that case, we should see some signs of reversal in the 10700-10765 zone. If we resume the downtrend from there we will be heading towards 10520 and 10430 next week. Scenario 2: Breakdown that we had last week fails. The short covering above 10850-10900 zone will give enough energy to break the long term resistance trendline on sustained basis. Sustaining above 10765 would be the first sign for bears to get cautious. So let's see what happens. All the best for next week. Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
5
Nifty – Heading Southwards ? Today Nifty NSE:NIFTY broke the crucial support at 10488 levels with a large Bearish candle. It is possible that new shorts may have been initiated by big players on the break of this support (As the stop loss is very small giving a good Risk Reward ratio). This level can now act as a potential resistance if any short covering rally occurs. Staying below 10488 can take Nifty back to 10120-10140 levels. Disclaimer: Views expressed here are my own, and should not be interpreted as an Investment Advice. Please consult your Financial Advisor for investments.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by nano6yogesh
Banknifty – Looking weakToday Banknifty NSE:BANKNIFTY broke the crucial support around 26000 levels with a Bearish candle whose close was almost at the low of the candle. With PSU banks’ results (SBI NSE:SBIN , Bank of Baroda NSE:BANKBARODA ) lined up in the coming week, looks like the selloff in banknifty will continue. If Banknifty continues to stay below 26000 levels, we might witness another 1000 points fall to around 25000 levels in the coming weeks. If it manages to pull up above 26000 levels, we may see a range bound action with lower end at 26000. Disclaimer: Views expressed here are my own, and should not be interpreted as an Investment Advice. Please consult your Financial Advisor for investments.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by nano6yogesh