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Bitcoin following 2013-2017 ATH Fractal UPDATE Welcome to the latest update I have been posting this idea for a long time now and it is still playing out and I am so pleased to see some respected Crypto people now saying the same. To recap Bitcoin Fractal anchored at the 2021 Nov ATH - some people do not like to use that ATH as a real one as there are many reason why they consider it a False one...But I use it as most BTC ATH are in End of year months and it was very simply THE ATH of that cycle. It was the highest point. And as you can see, Current PA has followed it (all be it with a certain tolerance of error) The 2022 period was hard for BTC as we know and so the PA was driven lower but Still survived. We can also see how it took some time for confidence to return fully but.. Here we are now, since Q3 2023, following it again Spot on. And if we are going to continue to do this, we need that -30% Pull back as seen on the Fractel. And we do need it. Weekly MACD is currently turning Bearish and if we want to get to a new ATH in 2025, that MACD needs to be coming off Neutral at best. Should PA Avoid that pullback, and Range for 6 months again, it will begin to fall under the fractel. I am not sure if that is OK or not but given that we have been Above it since Jan 2023, It is not something that would give me confidence. So, for me, I am cautious, waiting / hoping for a Drop that would be swiftly bought back up BUY THE DIP But then, there will come a day where we no longer follow that Fractel because, as Fantastic as it would be to follow to the top and Get a $1.3 Million BTC, I do not think it is something we should expect just yet But then, This IS Bitcoin Anything can happen Be safe
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
3
Bitcoin near Cycle Top ? Or is it really different this time ?I am a man that likes to look at Both sides of a Story, even more so when it involves trading with with large or small amounts of money And I am even more carious with Bitcoin this Cycle. The Adoption of Corporations that can Buy and amass large amounts of Bitcoin is Highly likely to change how Bitcoin works. So many "Experts" deny this. And the proof that this is or not happening, is simply by looking at the Price Action, past and present. That is what I do almost everyday since 2015 and charting it here on TV for the last 6 years. And I have found THIS last night. And I have to show you and explain this. ** The Figures in the Logarithmic chart below are approximate and yet near enough to accurately reflect the idea I am about to present. This chart is Bitcoin PA since The LOW of November 2009 From that Low to cycle ATH is A and the same principle is applied to the following Cycle Low to ATH. The Data shown is the % difference between a cycle Low to Cycle High as compared to the previous cycle. For example. Cycle B was 95.8% smaller than Cycle A As we can easily see, as BTC increases in price, it becomes harder to make PA move higher. More money is required and so that "ATH point" Arc becomes Flatter each cycle. As a result, the Negative % difference is reduced each time. And we are near that ball park now in 2025 at - 73.2% The average of the previous 3 cycles is - 84.7 % - the first was an exceptional year and so if we remove that, we have an average of - 79,1 % But I am looking at the simple fact that we went from - 80.1 % to - 78.2 % in 2 cycles, that are in a channel that PA has been in ever since 2014 ATH. ( I have explained this channel in other posts ) That is a - 2.1 % change and so if we apply that to the previous -78.2 %, we may expect a final figure of - 76.1 % This still Gives PA some room to move before a final ATH - POSSIBLY Some are Expecting a 200K figure for this cycle ATH. If that happens, it would destroy this pattern and be a -40% difference to the previous cycle. What is VERY important to understand here is that, if we do make it over 120K, it does begin to make things Different. And the higher we go, the Bigger that difference to the Pattern we all now accept as the default 4 year cycle. So, in conclusion, there is a very real possibility that we have reached cycle Top, or very near, in 3 years. We did this in 2021 with a March ATH but we all now know, we went to November 2021 before the final ATH was reached, sticking to the 4 cycle and Keeping that % Different model explained above. If that happens again, we will not see another ATH till later in 2025 and even then, it will not be a lot greater than the last, repeating what happened in 2021. BUT - we do not know the impact of Corporate usage yet. Should this drive us over and beyond the 120K Mark,Things Will be different and then, referring to the past could be prone to error. THAT would be True Price discovery. This is all numerical FACT as can be seen on the chart My personnel opinion is that we do have more to come this cycle but maybe not till later in the year. It depends on market sentiment and that is likely to be Cool if the USA FED refuses to lower interest rates further this year, The First FED meeting of the year is 28 29 Jan We may be near a "Classic" cycle Top, and we may well be on the edge of creating a New Cycle pattern We may not. Only Time will tell and YOU need to make plans for Either reality Trade Safe, be cautious and LOVE LIFE
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
One reason why I am Still VERY bullish on Bitcoin This chart is very simple and it explains itself very well The upper trend line is formed by going through January candles only ( I have used a Line Chart here for Visibility but rtust me, that line goes through January Candles ) And, as you can see, when PA is above this trend line, it is en-route to ATH It also helps us see where we are in realtion to previous Januaries. And, If I am honest, we are Lower than we should be,. If we look in the channel, the Jan before PA crossed the trend line,going to the 2017 ATH, PA was 114% above the lower Trendline. The January before crossing the trendline en-route to 2021 ATH, PA was 214% above the Lower trendline - It has to be said, this cycle was blown out of proportion by excessive Leverage etc and, for me, this led to a premature ATH in March. The Real ATH are Late in the year, Nov or December. This January, 2025, PA is only 87% above that Lower trendline. But despite the Low level, we do seem to be entering a Much more friendly Crypto Finacial world now and I do expect PA to pick up. If we were to remain under the rising line of resistance, coming off the initial Wave higher in 2023, we hit the upper trendline around 2nd Half of summer. 2025 and at a price around 256K usdt The ATH will be above this line and we will have to wait to see how much higher it goes. This is the GREEN YEAR in Bitcoin Cycles. Lets go Please Note, I do expect the first quarter to be possibly not so friendly. We have to wait an see but by this time next year, I am hoping we will have had the ATH Time will tell
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin PA still in channel but is it ready to break out ?We can see that PA is still in channel and seemingly getting rejected off resistance mid channel. Is this Terrible News ? I do not think so. If we go back and look at the 2013 - 2017 run, we can also see PA was tame in the 2 years of mid cycle. held down by a rising trend line and, for me, I can see that this cycle also but on a bigger scale. We wait for PA to break over that line and then the upper trendline, to reach for New ATH This may happen Late spring or Early Autumn. I can wait
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Colour Close and patterns since 2011First of All HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL And I think we will see an excellent year for Bitcoin. But, for now, we walk into slightly uncharted territory Previous JANUARY candle colours are 7 GREEN and 6 RED. The previous DECEMBER was the same score but now, As December closed RED, it is now 7 all. Of the previous 7 Red Decembers, only 3 were followed by a Green January. the 1 st was the month after the 2013 ATH but the other 2 were in 2020 and 2023, both of which were en-route to ATH, so the odds are that we Could be in a good place. But do understand that in 2020, Feb and March were Bloody and Frb 2023 was a close call but just managed to remain Green.Given how overbought the weekly MACD is , this may happen again. We have had a RED January after a RED december on 3 occasions also and PA levelled out after that with a GREEN February on each occasion. 2 of those eventually led to rises over all and one, in 2022, we went into the bear market after an attempt in Spring to climb higher. For me, I think we are still following that 2013 - 2017 ATH Fractel and this is , to some extent, backed up by the inverted Red Hammer Candle ( only just ) This is technically a ~BEARISH sign and if we follow the Fractel, we are expecting a Drop in Janaury down to around 88K - 72K If this happens and I repeat, IF this happens, it is an excellent buying opportunity and possibly the last one below 100 K ever. It has to be said that Nothing is set in stone and "patterns" can be broken and we are certainly in times were things can change and quickly, so, Have an idea of what you will do in any situation and stick to that idea. If we are continuing to follow previous cycles, 2025 is the year we attain a new End of Cycle ATH and there are a wide variety of ideas of that will be. But in the back of my head, I am wondering if we have accelerated the PA. We reached a New ATH in the 3rd year of 4 year cycle. Only Time will tell whats nexrt but lets be ready for it Stay Safe and healthy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
Have you ever seen a Bitcoin YEAR chart ?Have you ever looked a t a Bitcoin YEAR chart ? No > Here it is, from the start So easy to see why people have finally realised it is worth holding on to. For one year in every Four, it is in Loss. The ONLY time that Loss retraced back Below the year before was in 2021 / 22 while the american TradFi and institutions despicably tried to destroy Bitcoin, and FAILED Looking at the 2 ATH trendlines, if we continue this, we can expect a possible 400K next year We will just have to wait and see But I will settle for 400K ;-) How about you ? I certainly Will NOT Sell all my BTC
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Where next and When for this Bitcoin Cycle- is it Over ? It is Far from over. In fact, in many way, Bitcoin has Just begun its new life. It was born in 2008, it has just gone through its childhood and now, as it becomes accepyted across Finacial Markets worldwide, it is maturing into adulthood. And so, by concequence, everything I am about to say may be completely wring as we have no real idea of how high Bitcoin will go. As the chart shows, It has been in a Rising channel since Nov 2022 and really took off in January 2023. There are many founded expectations for a High in Spring and in Late summer to winter 2025 If we follow the Upper trend line of this channel, I would expect PA to "top out" on the Fib extensions marked with a circle at 134K in April / May and anoither ATH, THE ATH of the cycle towards the end of the year. It is this one, the Last ATH oi the Cycle that is the hardest to pin point. On this chart, we see an area of around 170K. There are projections that see high of nearer 800K though this is optimistic..Not impossible..But optimistic. In the shorter term, we can see how Pa has ranged along the upper trend line Rejection from here is highly likely though on lower Timeframes, there is abil;ity to continue. If wer get rejected, a Srop to 87K is likely to be th eMax Drop in my viewl the the 2.618 fib line, You can see it was tested as support as we crossed over it. So, inconclusion, I think we will see a pull back, most likely in January but then, Pa wil recover well to reach a New ATH in spring. From there, liekly for a cool summer and an end of year grand finale to New ATH NONE of this is FACT. It is My opinion and could be wrong.. But I am working on these assumptions Lets see if they come out or not. Happy New Year everyone
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
DXY $ since 1972, FED Pivots and What now for ALTS coins ?DXY $ since 1972 and Rate Cuts When the FED cuts rates, the $ Drops in value most of the time as can be seen here on the chart below ( I have not "Boxed" the current FED Rate cuts to make it easier to see the PA ) This time it has continued to Rise for a number of reasons. In Fact, ever since that Banking "Accident" in 2008, the DXY has gained in value, on average, but thats another story. FED has said that Cuts may not occur in 2025. This Could once again make the $ a more attractive buy if other markets are falling. Then the $ could Stop being propped up ! Normally, as $ rises, Crypto struggles - again, we have seen BTC rise at the same time as the $ since July this year. It is ALTS that have struggled and this may very well continue. Normally, we wait for BTC/D to drop and then the Money flows into ALTS.. but if the money remains in Bitcoin, the ALT market requires an alternative source of income. Could we see the DXY $ loose that money ? But the pause in Rate Cuts may stop that That War in Finance continues. TradFi Lost round 1 and now Bitcoin is accepted, used, alllowed and is King. This is why the $ Will remain in Bitcoin, ETF's etc. We may see outflows every now and then but certainly Not the amount that drives the ALT market normally. Will we even see a bear market again ? ALTS however, they are the Minions that may yet suffer The War continues and DeFi, for example, needs to step up and REALLY make it self a Lot more user friendly, attractive and bigger gains in use, stake cases. 2025 is going to be very interesting and Volatile Don't Get Burnt. Be Cautious, the gains could be huge....as could the losses
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
UPDATE to "Did BTC Crash or Bullish Move"On the longer Term timelines, Bitcoin is still strong and recovering from its push higher but sadly for us, It lost that support line mentioned in the previous post witht he title above The Chart Below shows this clearly This is the 4 hour chart We can see how PA kept testing and retesting that line of support but eventualy fell through but what is still Bullish is how PA broke through that descending line of resistance. That takes away one problem but we have at least 2 strong lines of resistance above now AND RSI is overbought and so, I think we can expect further Dips and at the very least, a Longer Term range, as we did from March to September this year. The Weekly MACD is in a very simialr position as it was back then, OVERBOUGHT but lower timeframes are neutral or below and so some strength is found. We are , on average, still in ACCUMULATION with small pockets of Distribution as we have seen over the last couple of days. But Accumulation is certainly the trend that continues I am beginning to doubt a New December ATH and I am expecting January to be RED and so, now I am looking to that MARCH ATH as more realistic possibility But, this is BITCOIN.........Anything can happen
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Analysis: Testing Support LevelsAfter breaking down the critical support level at 95k, Bitcoin is showing strong downward momentum, heading toward the 89k zone. There’s significant buy volume building around the 89k level, indicating potential interest for a reversal or at least a temporary bounce. Key areas to watch: • If 89k holds, we could see a reversal or consolidation before another move. • A break below 89k with sustained sell volume might open the door to lower levels. I’ll monitor price action and volume closely to confirm any reversal signals or further downside continuation. Trade cautiously and always stick to your risk management strategy. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by gigaalgo
$BTC READY TO BOINCEBitcoin is currently bouncing off the $95,000 support level. It has entered the oversold zone and formed a bullish divergence. Based on this, there are three possible scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin could retest the $100,000 resistance level. If it successfully breaks this level, there's a strong possibility of further movement toward the $104,000 resistance. 2. Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin may retrace to test the major support at $94,000 or potentially form a double bottom at this level.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by crypto_vulture_signals
Did BTC really Crash or just a Bullish move ? IT IS BULLISH MOVESo many people, including some "Experts" have called this Dip by BTC as a Crash, caused by inflation and / or the Fed But it is NOT that at all, it is a perfect retest of resistance and here is why I have posted this chart a number of times here and it still stands, when PA crosses over that lower Bold line. PA is en-route to ATH. PA has been bouncing along this line for a number fo weeks, failing to break over and stay above This chart, daily, was taken just a little while ago And here we can clearly see that PA broke over that line of resistance and is now returning and tested it as support. So far, we are holding above it Should PA just range along this, we can see that Red 50 SMA coming in as support but this line we just crossed, if we can hold above...well.....It could be a Very nice christmas presant.. 25 Dec....... You heard it here ;-) Have a good one. IF we loose support, there is plenty of support below...but have aplan incase.....always have a plan
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
UPDATE - Rates Rises and Cuts since 2021 and effect on BTC PAThere it is, the entire effect of FED Rate Cuts, Effects on influential companies and banks and the unstoppable RISE of Bitcoin to Corporate recognition and Adoption and the arrival of ETF's And now, with a more Global acceptance of Crypto, whats next ? what is certain is how BTC is gaining on GOLD's previous title as the Safe haven and Stor of Value The BTCXAUT ( Gold) chart shows this rise as it has begun, ready to take over > Currently, ONE BTC = 39 ounces of Gold, down slightly from the 42 Over 100 is expected by 2030 at the very latest It is simply Bad financial advice to suggest people SELL Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTCUSD - Channel BO - WKLYThe chart displays Bitcoin's price action (BTC/USD) over a weekly timeframe, suggesting a large channel BO. Key insights: 1. **Resistance Zone**: Around ~$65,000, which acted as a historical peak during earlier bull runs. 2. **Breakout Target**: - The measured move of ~$54,840.25 (approximately a 72.17% rise post-breakout) suggests a price target near **$131,176.66**. 3. **Volume**: Noticeable increase in volume during the breakout, signaling strong buying momentum. 4. **Current Price**: Bitcoin is trading near ~$107,367.64, consolidating above the breakout resistance. The chart anticipates a bullish continuation toward the projected target (~$131,000) if the breakout holds, in line with historical price structure.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Vem_TA_Charts