GBPUSD stays on bear’s radar unless crossing 1.1280GBPUSD holds onto the rebound from an all-time low, marked the previous day, amid oversold RSI conditions. The recovery also crossed the previous record bottom printed in 1985. However, the 1.1000 round figure and a downside sloping support-turned-resistance line from May, around 1.1280 by the press time, restricts the Cable pair’s immediate rebound. Also acting as an upside filter is the year 2020 bottom surrounding 1.1420.
Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s fresh weakness needs acceptance from Monday’s opening levels of around 1.0800, as well as the year 1985 bottom close to 1.0520. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0520, the 1.0500 threshold and the latest trough surrounding 1.0340 could lure the sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s weakness past 1.0340 could make it vulnerable to testing the 1.0000 psychological magnet.
Overall, GBPUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the buyers are far from retaking control.
Cable
GBPUSD breaks 1.1290 support ahead of BOE announcementsGBPUSD renews 37-year low, breaking four-month-old support line and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the GBPUSD pair’s moves between August 17 and September 13, close to 1.1290, as traders await the Bank of England’s (BOE) monetary policy updates. Though the cable pair broke the nearby key support, now resistance around 1.1290, oversold RSI conditions and a likely positive surprise from the “Old Lady”, as the BOE is popularly known, tease the Cable pair buyers. In that case, the 5-DMA and a six-week-old resistance line, respectively around 1.1410 and 1.1560, could challenge the bulls. Following that, a one-month-long horizontal resistance area will precede the 50-DMA to restrict the quote’s further upside around 1.1740 and 1.1845 in that order.
Alternatively, the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level near 1.1160 lures the GBPUSD bears unless it stays below 1.1290. In a case where the Cable pair drops below 1.1160, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the 1.1000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.
Overall, GBPUSD seemed to have a little downside room ahead of the anticipated hawkish BOE.
GBPUSD recalls bears targeting 1.1400, UK CPI in the spotlightGBPUSD seesaws below 50-SMA after breaking the weekly support line, not to forget to mention the reversal from a three-week-old horizontal hurdle. The pullback also takes clues from the downside RSI and MACD to suggest further downside towards the yearly low marked the last week around 1.1400. It should, however, be noted that a 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August 17 to September 13 moves, near 1.1280, could challenge the pair sellers afterward. If not then, the downward sloping support line from August 22, close to 1.1230 by the press time, will gain the market’s attention.
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD rebound remains elusive unless crossing the one-month-old horizontal resistance area near 1.1745-50. That said, the one-week-long support-turned-resistance around 1.1630 guards the immediate recovery. If at all the cable pair rises past 1.1750, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.1890 could act as the last defense for bears, a break of which could give control to the buyers.
Overall, GBPUSD is back into the bear’s court and is likely to renew the yearly low ahead of the key UK inflation numbers.
GBPUSD eyes 1.1730 on bullish RSI divergence, channel breakoutGBPUSD crosses the monthly bearish channel, also the 50-SMA hurdle, after briefly declining to the lowest levels since 1985. The corrective bounce takes support from the bullish RSI divergence where the lower low on the prices contrasts with the higher low of the RSI (14), which in turn suggests brighter chances of the pair’s recovery. As a result, the buyers are on the way to the three-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.1730-40. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.1740, the 1.1900 and the 1.2000 thresholds could please the bulls afterward.
Meanwhile, the stated channel’s upper line acts as the immediate support for the pair, around 1.1500. Following that, the weekly descending trend line surrounding 1.1400 seems to restrict short-term GBPUSD downside ahead of the lower line of the aforementioned bearish channel, close to 1.1340 at the latest. It’s worth noting, that the pair’s south-run past 1.1340 could keep grinding the quote slowly towards the 1.1000 psychological magnet. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.1000, the low marked in the year 1985 near 1.0520 will regain the market’s attention.
To sum up, GBPUSD seems to have seen enough of the downside and the bull’s turn is just around the corner. However, the fundamentals are the key and should be read carefully for clear directions.
GBPUSD portrays falling wedge at multi-month lowGBPUSD prints a falling wedge bullish chart pattern amid all the pessimism surrounding the UK economy and the hawkish Fed, not to forget the US dollar’s run-up. The recovery moves, however, need validation from the 1.1810 hurdle, as well as the 50-SMA resistance surrounding 1.1840. Following that, a three-week-long horizontal resistance near 1.2010 could test the bulls before directing them to the monthly high, currently around 1.2295.
Meanwhile, pullback moves could retest the lower line of the stated falling wedge, close to 1.1640, while refreshing the multi-month low. Following that, the 1.1600 and the 1.1500 round figure may entertain the GBPUSD bears before highlighting the year 2020 bottom close to 1.1410. That said, the cable pair’s south-run past 1.1410 will make it vulnerable to drop towards the 1.1000 psychological magnet.
Overall, GBPUSD bears seem running out of fuel but the recovery needs a strong push to convince buyers.
GBPUSD bears stay on the way to 1.1890GBPUSD extended pullback from 100-SMA to refresh monthly low, before the recent corrective pullback near 1.1900. In doing so, the Cable pair also broke below the support area of a fortnight-old descending triangle. The downside break also takes clues from the bearish MACD signals, suggesting more to run towards the south. However, the late July swing low around 1.1890 will be in focus as the RSI quickly approaches the oversold territory and teases a bounce. Should the price remain weak past 1.1890, the yearly low marked in the last month, close to 1.1760 should lure the sellers.
Alternatively, recovery moves could initially aim for the triangle’s upper line, at 1.2080 by the press time, a break of which could escalate the direct buyers towards the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2130. It’s worth noting that multiple hurdles around 1.2200 could challenge the GBPUSD buyers afterward. Should the quote remain firmer past 1.2200, the odds of its refreshing the monthly top, close to 1.2190 at the latest can’t be ruled out.
Overall, GBPUSD bears keep the reins but oversold RSI suggests limited room to the south.
GBPUSD bulls step back from key resistance ahead of UK GDPGBPUSD retreats from the 11-week-old descending trend line as the traders await the first readings of the Q2 2022 UK GDP. In addition to the trend line hurdle, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July downside, near 1.2345, guards the pair’s immediate upside. Following that, the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.2435 will be in focus. In a case where the quote remains strong past 1.2435, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards May’s peak of 1.2665 can’t be ruled out.
On the contrary, GBPUSD sellers can aim for the 21-DMA support near 1.2075 during further weakness. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s downside beneath 1.2075 will have the two-month-old resistance-turned-support line, around 1.1955, as the last defense for buyers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.1955, the odds of its south-run towards the yearly low near 1.1860 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, GBPUSD bulls are in the driver’s seat ahead of the key UK GDP data. It should be observed that the British economy is likely to witness recession and hence positive surprise will be welcomed with zeal considering the pre-data bullish bias.
Technical Analysis: GBPUSD bulls need validation from 1.2110GBPUSD refreshed a three-week high on Tuesday while extending the breakout of 100-SMA. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a downward sloping trend line from June 16, around 1.2110 appears a tough nut to crack for the Cable pair buyers. Given the RSI’s nearness to the overbought territory, the upside momentum is less likely to overcome the key hurdle. However, a successful break of the 1.2110 could quickly propel the quote towards the June 30 peak near 1.2190. It’s worth noting that multiple resistances around 1.2230 and 1.2325-30 could challenge the pair buyers beyond 1.2190, before directing them to the previous monthly peak of 1.2405.
Meanwhile, pullback moves may dribble around 1.2050-45 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.1960. Following that, an ascending support line from mid-July, close to 1.1940, will be crucial to watch for further downside. In a case where the GBPUSD prices remain weak past 1.1940, the 1.1800 round figure may act as an intermediate halt before directing the bears toward the monthly low, also the yearly bottom, surrounding 1.1760.
Overall, GBPUSD bulls approach the key resistance, a break of which can reverse the downtrend, at least for the short term.
GBPUSD buyers jostle with key resistance around 1.2030GBPUSD's rebound dribbles around a one-week high while extending Friday’s upside break of a descending resistance line from June 27, now support. The Cable pair’s recovery also takes clues from the firmer RSI and the bullish MACD signals to keep buyers hopeful. However, sustained trading beyond convergence of the 100-SMA and a downward sloping trend line from June 07, around 1.2030, becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. Should the quote manage to stay firmer past 1.2030, a run-up towards the monthly high near 1.2175 can’t be ruled out. Though, multiple hurdles stay firer to challenge the quote’s upside past 1.2175, a break of which could propel the prices towards the mid-June high near 1.2400.
Meanwhile, a weekly support line, close to 1.1990, could challenge the GBPUSD sellers. Following that, the resistance-turned-support from late June and the recently flashed multi-month low, respectively around 1.1820 and 1.1775, will be in focus. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained downtrend below 1.1775 could make it vulnerable to slump towards March 2020 bottom close to 1.1400.
Overall, GBPUSD recovery pokes the key resistance confluence as traders brace for important UK data, starting with today’s UK employment report.
GBPUSD bears have a bumpy road to the south at multi-month lowBe it recession fears or the UK’s political crisis, GBPUSD has to bear it all as it dropped to the lowest level since March 2020. However, the cable pair appears to have a limited downside room before hitting the key supports. That said, a nearly oversold RSI and a falling wedge bullish chart pattern near the multi-month low also tease buyers to take the risk. It should be noted, however, that a downside break of the 1.1770 mark, comprising the wedge’s support line and 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, will defy the bullish hopes. Following that, the 100% FE level surrounding 1.1520 may offer an intermediate halt before dragging the quote to the year 2020 bottom close to 1.1410.
Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially struggle around the 61.8% FE level near 1.1950 before regaining the 1.2000 mark. Though, bulls will be interested in seeing a successful break of the 1.2100 mark as it confirms the falling wedge bullish formation. In that case, theory suggests a run-up towards the 1.2800 round figure but the 50-DMA and May’s top could challenge the buyers respectively around 1.2360 and 1.2565.
Overall, GBPUSD sellers appear to have run out of steam but the bulls need validation.
GBPUSD stays ready to refresh yearly low ahead of UK/US PMIsGBPUSD fades bounce off yearly low as the cable traders await the UK and the US preliminary PMIs for June. Bearish MACD signals and steady RSI also backs the downside bias. That being said, May’s low of 1.2155 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet can act as immediate supports ahead of the latest trough surrounding 1.1933. In a case where the pair sellers dominate past 1.1933, the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, near 1.1760, as well as a downward sloping trend line from mid-March around 1.1590, will be in focus.
On the contrary, a convergence of the 20-DMA and a two-month-old horizontal area surrounding 1.2410-20 appears a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bulls during the recovery. Adding to the upside filters is a 10-week-long resistance line and 50-DMA, respectively around 1.2460 and 1.2510. It’s worth noting that a clear upside break of the 1.2510 enables the pair buyers to aim for May’s top of 1.2666.
To sum up, GBPUSD is likely to remain bearish unless the quote rises past 1.2510. Considering that, today’s PMIs are less likely to offer any incentive to buyers unless being extremely strong, which is less expected.
GBPUSD rebound appears necessary as cable traders await BOEGBPUSD fades the corrective pullback from a two-year low, as well as the 61.8% FE level of late March-May moves. Also supporting the bounce was the oversold RSI condition. However, the Bank of England’s (BOE) looming rate hike keeps buyers on their toes due to the “Old Lady’s” previous failures to impress. That said, the recovery moves currently need a clear upside break of the previous monthly low of 1.2155 to convince buyers. Should the BOE manage to favor the bulls, a run-up beyond the 1.2155 could aim for a seven-week-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 1.2410-20. It’s worth noting that the cable pair’s run-up past 1.2420 remains doubtful as a descending resistance line from February precedes the 50-DMA, respectively around 1.2500 and 1.2610, to challenge the optimists.
On the contrary, the 1.2000 threshold acts as the immediate support ahead of the 61.8% FE level of 1.1960. During the GBPUSD pair’s weakness past 1.1960, the 78.6% FE and a downward slopping support line from March, around 1.1760 and 1.1700 in that order, will be crucial to watch as the RSI might have offered another corrective bounce by then. If not then the quote becomes vulnerable to testing the 100% FE level of 1.1510.
Overall, GBPUSD is likely to extend the latest recovery as traders position themselves for the BOE. However, the upside momentum remains elusive.
GBPUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on Fed, BOEA clear downside break of the six-week-old horizontal support keeps GBPUSD bears hopeful of further south-run ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meetings. That said, 1.2255-50 appears immediate support for the cable ahead of the yearly low surrounding 1.2150. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained downturn past 1.2160 could make it vulnerable to further declines toward the 1.2000 psychological magnet. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March to May moves, near 1.1950, might lure the bears.
Alternatively, recovery remains elusive until the quote remains below the recently broke support-turned-resistance, around 1.2400-2410. Even if the GBPUSD prices rise beyond 1.2410, a downward sloping trend line from February and the 50-DMA, respectively near 1.2570 and 1.2640, will be in focus. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s successful run-up beyond the 50-DMA needs validation from May’s high near 1.2665 to convince the buyers.
Overall, GBPUSD is ready to extend the latest downward trajectory but the oscillators may test the bears and so do the central bankers. Hence, traders’ discretion appears more required.
GBPUSD rebound remains doubtful unless crossing 1.2780GBPUSD refreshed it's monthly high the previous day but the bulls don’t have smooth sailing due to the weekly closing below the 1.2630-40 horizontal hurdle. That said, RSI and MACD have been supportive of the recovery moves and hint at the further upside. However, a convergence of the descending trend line from February and the 50-DMA, around 1.2775-80, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers. It’s worth noting, though, that a clear run-up beyond 1.2780 could propel the prices towards a 50% Fibonacci retracement of February-May downside, near 1.2950.
Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially dribble around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2530 before the GBPUSD bears approach a one-month-old horizontal support area surrounding 1.2400. Should the quote fail to bounce off 1.2400, the 1.2260-55 region can act as the last defense for the sellers. During the cable’s weakness past 1.2250, the recent multi-month low around mid-1.2100s and the May 2020 bottom of 1.2075 will gain the market’s attention.
Overall, GBPUSD approaches the short-term key hurdles which hold the keys to a trend change.
GBPUSD signals further losses, UK data, BOE’s Bailey eyedGBPUSD extends pullback from 1.3090 ahead of the key UK data, as well as a speech from the BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, during early Friday. The downside bias also gains support from the sluggish RSI and MACD, which in turn suggests the pair’s further weakness towards the support line of a six-week-old triangle, near 1.2990 at the latest. Following that, the monthly low and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the March-April moves, respectively around 1.2970 and 1.2945, will lure the pair sellers.
Alternatively, recovery moves will aim for the stated triangle’s upper line, surrounding 1.3090. Also acting as the short-term key resistance is the 200-SMA level close to the 1.3100 threshold. Should the quote rises past 1.3100, the mid-month high of 1.3146 and the monthly peak of 1.3166 may test the GBPUSD buyers. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to 1.3170 will act as an additional challenge for the bulls before retaking the controls.
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GBPUSD bulls eye 200-SMA ahead of UK CPIGBPUSD’s sustained break of the one-month-old horizontal resistance, near 1.3265-70, keeps buyers hopeful ahead of the UK CPI data for February. That said, a run-up towards the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.3370 becomes imminent due to the breakout and firmer MACD signals even as RSI tests the bulls. Following that, the monthly peak of 1.3436 will challenge the cable’s advances afterward.
Alternatively, pullback moves can aim for the 100-SMA retest, around 1.3185 by the press time, a break of which will direct GBPUSD sellers toward an ascending support line from March 15, close to 1.3130 at the latest. Should the quote drop below 1.3130, the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.3100 will question the bears before directing them to the monthly low near the 1.3000 psychological magnet.
It’s worth noting that the RSI approaches overbought territory but the UK inflation data is more likely to reinforce the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate-hike concerns, which in turn keep buyers hopeful in absence of any negative surprises.
GBPUSD stays inside monthly triangle ahead of BOE MPR HearingsGBPUSD bears flex muscles inside the one-month-old symmetrical triangle, recently easing from the resistance. Although downbeat RSI and MACD signals keep sellers hopeful of breaking the stated triangle’s support line, around 1.3550 at the latest, a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 50-DMA highlights the 1.3500 threshold as strong support. Even if the cable pair drop below the 1.3500 mark, the following south-run needs validation from an upward sloping support line from late December, near 1.3780 by the press time, a break of which will give controls to bears.
On the contrary, hawkish BOE Monetary Policy Report (MPR) Hearings will again challenge the triangle’s resistance line, close to 1.3635. Following that, the 200-DMA and a descending resistance line from October 2021, respectively around 1.3680 and 1.3700, could test the bulls. During the quote’s run-up past-1.3700, January’s peak of 1.3748 may act as the last defense for the pair sellers ahead of unleashing the bulls.
Overall, GBPUSD grinds inside the monthly triangle ahead of a likely hawkish event.
GBPUSD must stay above 1.3555 to keep bulls on the tableGBPUSD keeps the 50-DMA breakout to battle the 100-DMA as traders await final readings of UK Services PMI for December, as well as the US ISM Services PMI for the said month. Although the key DMA breakout and bullish MACD hints at the cable pair’s further upside, a clear run-up beyond the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.3555 becomes necessary for the bulls to rise further towards the five-month-old resistance line and the 200-DMA, respectively around 1.3690 and 1.3740. Also challenging the pair buyers are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of July-December downside, close to 1.3570 and 1.3670 in that order.
It’s worth noting that a failure to stay past 1.3555 could drag the quote back to November’s high near 1.3515 ahead of highlighting the 50-DMA level of 1.3400 for the GBPUSD sellers. Should the pair extend the south-run below 1.3400, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3350 may offer an intermediate halt during the fall targeting the year 2021 bottom of 1.3160. To sum up, GBPUSD bulls are at a test and the sellers may take the risk in case of pullback.
GBPUSD bulls are at test on the final day of 2021GBPUSD bulls cheer clear upside break of 50-DMA to poke six-week top, amid bullish MACD signals. However, a short-term horizontal hurdle close to 1.3515 joins nearly overbought RSI conditions to probe further upside. Even if the quote manages to stay past 1.3515, the 100-DMA and a descending trend line from June, respectively around 1.3570 and 1.3640, will challenge the cable buyers. It should, however, be noted that a successful rise above 1.3640 enables the pair to challenge October’s high of 1.3833.
On the contrary, a failure to cross the 1.3515 immediate hurdle could trigger the much-needed pullback towards the 50-DMA level of 1.3420. Following that, the monthly horizontal line, previous resistance near 1.3370, will be crucial to watch. Given the GBPUSD pair’s drop below 1.3370, bears might not hesitate to challenge the yearly low of 1.3160. Overall, GBPUSD buyers hold the controls but multiple resistances question further advances as the market approaches 2022.
GBPUSD bulls eye another confrontation with 1.3618/24 hurdle Despite recently easing from 1.3575, GBPUSD stays above a one-week-old ascending trend line amid bullish MACD. On the fundamental side, the passage of the Brexit deal and US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus also favor the Cable buyers. Though, a downward sloping trend line from December 17, currently around 1.3620, becomes necessary for the GBPUSD bulls to keep the reins. Following that, September 2017 peak close to 1.3660 and March 2018 low near 1.3710 will be in the spotlight.
If consolidation moves break the immediate support line, at 1.3555, 200-SMA near 1.3350 and the monthly bottom close to 1.3190/85 could lure the GBPUSD sellers. However, the December 21 top around 1.3500 and last Tuesday’s low of 1.3303 can offer intermediate halts during the downside. To sum it all, GBPUSD may witness pullback in the short-term but the overall outlook remains bullish.