Chambal Fertilizers – High RR Trade Setup FormingChambal Fertilizers price has dropped sharply and is now reacting from a strong demand zone between ₹570–₹579, which earlier acted as a base for a major rally. This area has been respected in the past and shows signs of absorption.
Today’s candle shows a pause in selling, hinting at a possible reversal.
Entry is taken near ₹594 with tight risk below ₹570 (marked invalidation zone).
If demand steps in upside targets are minor resistance around 630,
TGT 1: ₹633 – major supply zone
TGT 2: ₹706 – full mean reversion if strength sustains
This setup offers a high risk-to-reward ratio with a clearly defined stop-loss and structure.
Keeping it simple zone is valid, price is reacting, R/R is strong. All eyes on follow-through.
Chambal Fertilizers – Strong Business, Low Risk
Chambal is one of the biggest private fertilizer companies in India. It supplies urea and other Agri Products to farmers across the country.
Here’s why it stands strong:
Stable revenue: ₹28,000 Cr+ in FY24
Good profit: Net profit of ₹1,300 Cr+
Low debt: Debt-to-equity around 0.6, very manageable
Healthy cash flow: Business generates steady cash, even in tough markets
Govt support: Gets regular subsidies from the Indian government
Essential sector: Demand stays strong because farmers always need fertilizers
Chambal may not be a flashy stock, but it's reliable. Good fundamentals + technical setup = smart long-term opportunity.
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a buy/sell recommendation.
Candlestick Analysis
Cycle Conflict in BTC — Long Bias Despite Bearish Price Action📊 Cycle Structure:
⬆️ HWC (Higher Wave Cycle): Bullish
⬆️ MWC (Middle Wave Cycle): Bullish
🔁 LWC (Lower Wave Cycle): Ranging (Neutral, no clear direction)
📌 Always keep cycles in mind — they are key tools to understand both long-term and short-term trends and help us manage risk better.
📉 Price Action Inside the Channel:
Price is moving inside a defined channel.
We’ve seen about 6 touches to the channel bottom, but the 5th and 6th touches were weak and didn’t even reach the mid-channel line. This shows buyer weakness at the support zone.
Candles and volume also indicate bearish pressure.
🔄 Conflicting Signals:
Cycles suggest avoiding shorts and keeping a long bias.
But the channel and bearish pressure indicate a possible breakdown.
⚠️ Risk Management:
This is where risk management saves the day!
Enter long with low risk.
Place a tight stop loss so if price moves against us, we exit fast.
If the market moves in favor of longs, we can quickly take the position.
Also, quick profit-taking is advised since this move contradicts the cycle signals.
📍 Key Level:
105,250 — This level can trigger strong reactions but it’s not a confirmation for long entries. It’s mainly a good zone for taking profits and managing positions.
📌 If you want me to analyze a specific coin or pair, just drop a comment.
⚠️ Without proper risk management, you’re just a ticking time bomb.
— PXA
LINK 4H Analysis — Sixth Test Incoming: Can the Resistance Final⏱ Timeframe: 4H
Key Resistance: $16.50 (1H-based level)
Number of Touches: 5 prior touches, 6th approaching
🔍 Market Context
The $16.50 resistance zone has been tested five times, and we’re now approaching the sixth test.
➤ According to price action principles, the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes — increasing the probability of a breakout.
The last reaction (5th touch) was weak, indicating that sellers may be running out of strength.
Bullish momentum is strong — a cluster of strong bullish candles adds pressure toward the upside.
If you're looking for short setups, this analysis might not suit your bias — the market structure and flow are tilted upward.
💡 Entry Scenarios
Aggressive (Riskier) Entry: Place a buy stop order slightly above $16.50 — anticipate a breakout.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a 1H candle to close clearly above $16.50 to confirm the breakout, then enter.
🛡 In both cases, proper risk management and a clear stop-loss plan are essential.
🔄 Macro Influence
BTC Dominance (BTC.D): Currently pulling back, indicating strength in altcoins.
LINK/BTC Pair: Recently broke a descending trendline and confirmed it with a pullback — adding confluence for further upside.
💡 Watching how BTC.D and LINKBTC behave in parallel with LINKUSDT can give you powerful multi-angle confirmation.
💬 Want another coin analyzed? Drop it in the comments — I’ll pick from there.
⚠️ Without proper risk management, you're just a ticking time bomb.
— PXA 📊
$BTC Facing Strong Rejection – Correction Ahead?CRYPTOCAP:BTC is showing clear rejection signs from the trendline near the key resistance zone around $107,000, replicating the December 2024 - January 2025 structure.
Hanging Man candle near resistance
Bearish RSI divergence
MACD bearish crossover
Weak buying pressure vs growing selling volume
Stochastic RSI fading out
one retest around 97000$
If $90K support breaks, watch out for a deeper drop toward $60K.
Market structure suggests a smart correction is brewing. Don’t ignore the signs.
HDFC Bank confirm target 1970 in 2025 HDFC Bank confirm target 1970 in 2025
HDFC Bank's stock presents a potential upside ranging from approximately 9% to 23% over the next year. The bank's strong financial performance and positive analyst sentiments support this optimistic outlook.
Analyst Price Targets for 2025
1. Motilal Oswal: Recommends a 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹2,050, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 21% from the current price .
2. Prabhudas Lilladher: Maintains a 'Buy' recommendation with a target of ₹2,025 .
3.Trendlyne Consensus: Reports an average target of ₹1,972.27 based on inputs from 12 analysts .
4.TradingView Forecast: Provides a median price target of ₹2,034.19, with estimates ranging between ₹1,627 and ₹2,660 .
All-Time High
The stock made an all-time high slightly above ₹1,900, which acts as a psychological and technical resistance
Overall Market Condition and HDFC bank Trend are Bullish , So It Will Easily Achive Target of 1970 .
2 Candlestick Patterns That Actually Work — when used right !Intro:
Most traders learn candlestick patterns from cheat sheets —
Engulfing, doji, hammer, shooting star…
But not all patterns are created equal.
The key isn’t memorizing names — it’s understanding which ones hold real weight when used with structure.
Here are 2 powerful candlestick patterns that can shift the game — if you know when to trust them.
⸻
1. The Rejection Wick with Body Close Inside Structure (a.k.a. Rejection Candle)
What It Looks Like:
• A long wick that pierces above/below a key zone
• Candle body closes back inside the range
• Usually forms at OB, FVG, or liquidity sweep zones
Why It Works:
• It shows trapped traders and smart money rejection
• Confirms a false breakout and reclaim of intent
• Often leads to strong reversals or clean follow-throughs
When To Use It:
• After liquidity sweep
• Near HTF zone (OB / supply-demand)
• When followed by structure shift or BOS
Pro Tip: Combine with session awareness (NY / London open) for killer confluence.
⸻
2. The Inside Bar (Breakout Continuation Bar)
What It Looks Like:
• A small candle completely inside the range of the previous candle
• Price consolidates within one bar’s high-low range
• Often signals coiled pressure
Why It Works:
• It shows price resting before continuation
• When it forms near structure (OB or demand), the breakout that follows is often explosive
• Stop-loss is easy to place (above/below the mother bar)
When To Use It:
• After a BOS or clean impulse
• As a continuation signal on HTF
• Inside compression → expansion zones
Pro Tip: Trade the breakout of the inside bar with bias confirmation — not in both directions.
⸻
Final Word:
Candlestick patterns don’t work on their own.
They work when:
• Context is clear
• Liquidity has been handled
• Market structure aligns
If you trade candles without logic, you’re reacting to emotion.
But when you pair them with narrative and zones?
They become weapons.
DYCL RSI Breakout - D timeframeDYCL Dynamic cables daily chart. After exiting parallel channel, DYCL made double top formation and fell 41% breaking down neckline during Jan-Mar '25 correction despite good Q3 result YoY.
Now Daily chart displaying double bottom formation in price chart and RSI.
Mar 18 shows bullish harami and Mar 19 shows inverted hammer. Bullish patterns in daily chart. So far volume isn't satisfactory. May 17 (this week) Weekly chart shows hammer pattern, but RSI is taking nose dive. Let's see if daily chart makes the weekly chart better in upcoming days.
Considering demand in cables, DYCL is a good bet. I don't think recent entry of big player (Ultratech cement) to cable industry would affect much atleast for next year.
Escorts Kubota Ltd (NSE: ESCORTS) **Trade Idea – Escorts Kubota Ltd (NSE: ESCORTS)**
**Chart Setup:** Weekly timeframe
**Current Price:** ₹3,523 (as of May 13, 2025)
**Technical Structure:**
* The stock has bounced sharply (+12.5%) from a **long-term trendline support**.
* The trendline is aligned with a strong **horizontal demand zone** (\~₹2,800–3,100), which has held since early 2024.
* Structure indicates accumulation near support with bullish momentum resuming.
EURCHF LONGHey everyone
Im looking for a Buy after we break the Daily/4H resistance and retest from it but also we have mulitple confirmation:
1) Daily bullish, 4h bullish
2) after we break above our daily support we went down to retest our 61.80% Fib level
3) break our counter trend line and retest it
4) we need to break above our Daily/4H resistance level and wait for an engulfing bullish 1h/30 and then will get in
Good luck!!
Not all lines are Trends: Post about proper Trendlines
Introduction-:
Trendlines are often the first tool traders learn and ironically, one of the most misused. Drawing a line between two swing points may look convincing, but that doesn’t make it meaningful. A right trendline is not just about connecting dots it’s about capturing the heartbeat of the market.
In this post we will learn how to draw high quality trendlines that align with price structure, reflect momentum, and provide reliable trade signals. Whether we are scalper, swing trader, or positional analyst, mastering this skill will bring more clarity and confidence to your chart reading.
1-:What Is a Trendline Really ?
A trendline isn't just a visual reference it’s a dynamic tool that reflects the direction and strength of a trend. Think of it as the price path of least resistance.
a) Identify areas of value for entry
b) Highlight potential reversal or breakout zones
c) Keep your analysis structured and disciplined
2-: Anatomy of a Right Trendline
a) Three Touches Minimum
A trendline with just two points is a projection. Once it gets a third touch or more, it becomes validated a level that other traders are likely watching too.
b) Wicks or Bodies Choose One, Use wicks when volatility is high or you're analyzing intraday charts and use bodies for cleaner structure in swing setups
Mixing both can distort your view so choose one and stick to it per chart.
c) Don’t Cut Through Candles, a forced line that slices through multiple candles is a biased line. Let the trendline hug swing points naturally without imposing your view on the market.
d) Respect the Slope, steep trendlines often mark emotional moves that don’t last. Shallow trendlines suggest controlled trends better for swing trades. Avoid extremes a flat or vertical line is usually unreliable.
3-: Timeframe Relevance
Always start with higher timeframes Daily or 4H to draw the main trendline. These longer-term lines attract more volume and institutional attention. Then shift to lower timeframes to refine your entries, keeping the higher-level structure in view.
4. Use Trendlines with Context for Better Accuracy, Trendlines become far more powerful when aligned with other tools, Some examples below.
Horizontal support and resistance can confirm trendline levels
Volume spikes can validate breakout or pullback setups
Divergence in RSI or MACD can signal weakening trend strength
Chart patterns like flags, triangles, or head-and-shoulders often form around key trendlines
The more layers of confirmation, the better your odds.
5-: Using Trendlines for Trading Decisions
a) Pullback Entry
Wait for price to touch the trendline and show a strong reaction (engulfing, pin bar, etc.). These setups offer high R:R with clear invalidation.
b) Break and Retest
A clean break below or above the trendline, followed by a retest, often marks trend continuation or reversal. Wait for confirmation before entering.
c) Logical Stop Placement
Place your stop-loss just outside the trendline’s opposite side. This approach is more rational than random pip buffers or fixed risk.
6-: Trendlines That Trap Traders
Not all breakouts are real. Sometimes price will breach a trendline just enough to trigger stops and then snap back so how to avoid the trap.
Don’t trust every breakout
Confirm with volume or candle structure
Watch for failure-to-follow-through patterns
Patience often reveals whether a move is genuine or manipulation.
Conclusion
The right trendline is not just a drawing it’s a tool that reflects the psychology of the market.
It helps you trade what the market is showing, not what you hope to see. Don’t draw lines to fit your bias. Let price action speak, and draw lines that the market itself respects.
Thanks for reading. If this added value, a like would be encouraging.
Regards- Amit.
Nestle India: Multiple times resistance and Breakout and retestNSE:NESTLEIND
Resistance becomes Support !
This has shown multiple times resistance levels see the red arrows on chart, on 9th Apr 2025 script has shown the breakout with increased volumes, on 09th May script has shown the Bullish candle at the previous resistance level which will work has support.
Buy above the high of Bullish candle at 2351
SL at 2269
Target at 2473.
NIFTY : Very bearish due to forming Bearish Divergence pattern
BEARISH DIVERGENCE -
Market has formed a higher high on the chart whereas rsi has formed a lower high which indicates a bearish divergence pattern. This indicates upcoming market fall
Bearish Divergence forms when market forms higher high & rsi forms lower high
BEARISH MACD -
The macd line recently crossed below the signal line inside the macd indicator forming bearish macd crossover. Market is likely to fall in the upcoming days due to this bearish signal
MACD indicator is the combination of 2 lines - macd line is the difference between 26-period & 12-peroid EMA & signal line is the 9-period EMA of macd line
INVERTED HAMMER CANDLESTICK -
On daily timeframe NSE:NIFTY has formed a bearish candlestick pattern called "Inverted Hammer". it indicates reversal of the ongoing trend and beginning of the opposite trend ie bearish trend here.
Inverted Hammer candlestick is formed when a candlestick has long upper shadow & smaller body at the bottom
PROFIT TARGET -
target is 23194.25
STOP LOSS -
24908.05
ETH Short Triggered — Here’s Why It Still Makes Sense
BINANCE:ETHUSDT Trade Breakdown – 🧠
🔹 Timeframe: 1H / 15min Trendline Focus
🔹 Position: Short
🎯 Cycle Overview:
• HWC (High Wave Cycle): Bullish 🔼 (but not strongly)
• MWC (Medium Wave Cycle): Ranging 🔁
• LWC (Low Wave Cycle): Weakly Bearish 🔽
Since this position is against the HWC (High Wave Cycle), I’ve reduced my risk. However, because the HWC is not strongly bullish and the MWC (Medium Wave Cycle) is ranging, taking a short position is still a valid option — as long as risk is properly managed. ⚠️
📈 Trendline Setup:
There are two key trendlines:
• Lower trendline on the 1H timeframe
• Upper trendline on the 15min timeframe
Both have 4 touches, which increases the probability of a breakout. I focus on breakouts in my strategy, so the number of touches matters.
The price was currently reacting to the lower trendline. Since it matched my breakout trigger, I entered short — but reduced my risk because it’s against the primary trend (HWC).
⚡ Also remember:
Trendlines that align with the main cycle direction tend to give stronger moves. So don’t just look at timeframe — the breakout direction matters too.
🔍 Volume & Price Action:
We've been ranging for 14 days, which builds potential energy for a sharp move.
The last touch on the trendline had a weak reaction, and volume is declining — which often signals an upcoming breakout.
🎯 Trade Details:
• Entry: 1798
• Stop Loss: 1802
• Target: 1750
🧠 Summary:
This setup matches my strategy criteria: clean touches, breakout trigger, weak reaction at the trendline, and volume confirmation. Despite being counter to HWC, risk was minimized accordingly.
Without proper risk management, you're just a ticking time bomb⚠️
— PXA 📊
ADANIENT - Bulls getting ready to bump up ?????!!!Y essss!!! !
Chart patterns inculcating me the above titled opinion.
1. Monthly timeframe shows the symmetrical triangle pattern from 2020 till now, now the stock at support line(chart image shown below)
2. Weekly time frame shows us the INSIDE BAR candlestick pattern(mother baby pattern) with good volumes....with the low umtested till now.(made the low of 2025 on 22 nov 2024)
3. Daily time frame shows the Breakout attempt out of the 11 month old trendline.
4. Now, with the results on may 1, we can expect a volatile move.... .with the inverted h&s pattern around the corner.
Voluminous Entry can be made after the BREAKOUT WITH GOOD VOLUMES...
will update once the breakout happens.
Just add it to your watchlist and keep an eye on it.
THIS IS JUST MY OPINION..NOT A TIP NOR ADVICE.
Thank you .
NIFTY - 50 Not easy to break at Weakly ResistanceThe Nifty 50, a benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India, has shown a bullish trend recently, but its performance for the upcoming week (starting May 5, 2025) will likely be influenced by a mix of technical levels, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment. Below is an overview based on recent analyses and market data:
Technical Analysis
Current Levels and Trend: The Nifty 50 closed at 24,313 on May 2, 2025, reflecting a bullish trend with a 0.24% weekly gain, a 4.98% monthly increase, and a 7.88% yearly rise. The index is trading above key daily moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 DMA), signalling sustained bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at 24,000–24,124, a strong demand zone on intraday and higher timeframes. A break and close of 4 hour candle below 24,000 could lead to a correction toward 23,500 or lower.
Resistance: The index faces resistance at 24,433–24,550. A decisive close above 24,600 could trigger a rally toward 25,300–25,700 or even 26,000
Volatility: Volatility is expected to persist due to global uncertainties and high VIX levels (above 18). Consolidation is likely unless the index decisively breaks 24,500.