Gold Trading Strategy | September 25-26✅ 4-Hour Chart: Gold prices pulled back after reaching 3791, with the lowest dip to 3717. It has since rebounded to oscillate around 3755–3760. The overall movement shows high-level consolidation, with frequent fluctuations between bulls and bears. No clear one-sided trend has formed yet, and we need to wait for a breakout direction.
The moving averages MA5 and MA10 are entangled at the highs, with price swinging above and below them, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. MA20 (around 3755) serves as a critical support/resistance, currently at a pivotal state.
✅ 1-Hour Chart: Price rebounded from the 3717 low but faced resistance again around 3760–3765. It is currently fluctuating in the 3740–3760 range, showing a typical consolidation pattern.
The moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 are intertwined, with price oscillating around them. If the price fails to hold above 3760 in the short term, the rebound momentum will remain limited.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3760 / 3785 / 3791
🟢 Support Levels: 3730 / 3717 / 3709
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
Focus on range trading with selling at highs and buying at lows.
🔰 If gold rebounds to around 3760 and faces resistance, consider light short positions with a target of 3730–3720.
🔰 If price pulls back and stabilizes within the 3730–3717 range, consider short-term long positions with a target of 3760.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
Chart Patterns
NEWGEN – Demand/Supply Zones and VCP Pennant Formation This chart analyzes NEWGEN’s price action around significant demand and supply zones, with a focus on the ongoing pennant/VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) base near support. Key moving averages provide context for recent trend shifts, while the technical summary and quarterly performance box support deeper analysis. Watch for breakout moves above the pennant resistance or further demand zone reactions as these will determine the next directional bias.
L&T Finance – Story of Two Channels and the Heart of Wave 3The chart of L&T Finance tells a neat Elliott Wave story through channels and Fibonacci.
First, notice the two channels. The old descending channel captured the corrective W-X-Y down to ₹42.69. From there, price shifted into an ascending channel .
Look how cleanly price respected this structure:
Green Wave 1 kissed the upper line of the ascending channel.
Green Wave 2 bottomed at ₹58.50 — right at the intersection of both channels.
Green Wave 3 again touched the channel’s upper line, marking its high with precision.
Green Wave 4 rested at the lower line of the channel.
Within Wave 3, the strongest push came at ₹140.20 — the famous heart of Wave 3 (what traders call the 3-of-3-of-3). RSI also peaked there, confirming it as the most powerful thrust of the sequence.
Now, price has surged into Green Wave 5 , reaching ₹252.20 , which is already above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. It could extend higher, but RSI is diverging — momentum is not confirming the new highs.
That makes me cautious. While my view is leaning bearish, I don’t want to chase the upside here. Confirmation will come only if price falls back inside the ascending channel . Once that happens, I’ll update bearish targets based on fresh price action.
For now, the chart has delivered a textbook lesson: two channels, a Fibonacci story, and the heart of Wave 3 flashing exactly where it should.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
BTCUSDT Daily structure: liquidity run below 107k?Pair: BYBIT:BTCUSDT
Timeframes: 1D context, 4H execution
Type: Educational market study
Thesis
After printing a rising-wedge into ATH and breaking down, price is in a corrective leg within a higher-timeframe uptrend. I’m watching for a controlled pullback toward 107–106k A deeper flush could reach the D1 imbalance/demand around 101–104k, with a max-draw scenario toward 98K, If today’s daily close reclaims 111K, the near-term bounce path opens toward 115k, aligning with the 0.5–0.618 retracement cluster.
Market structure & SMC read
* Trend: HTF uptrend intact on D1/W1; local distribution after ATH.
* Pattern: Rising wedge into ATH, then breakdown and retest of the lower boundary.
* BOS/CHOCH: Most recent BOS occurred on the run to ATH; current move is corrective.
Supply/Demand:
Shallow demand: 106–107k.
Primary D1 demand/FVG: 101–104k.
* Liquidity: Resting liquidity sits below recent equal lows at 106–107k and deeper toward 98–100k. Overhead liquidity and confluence cluster around 113.9k / 115.8k / 117.9k / 119.4k / 120.8k (Fib 0.382→0.786).
Key levels
* Supports: 107.0k, 106.0k, 101–104k FVG, 98.0k.
* Reclaim gate:111k(daily close).
* Fib/targets: 0.382 -113.9k, 0.5 -115.8k, 0.618- 117.9k, 0.705-119.4k, 0.786 -120.8.
Scenarios
A) Base case: Dip then bounce
1. Sweep into 107–106k to clear local lows.
2. LTF **CHOCH/BOS** back above 107.5k with absorption tails.
3. Path: 111k reclaim → 113.9k** → 115.8k; stretch 117.9k.
B) Deeper flush: FVG mitigation
1. Failure to hold 106k on a D1 close opens 101–104k demand/FVG fill.
2. LTF confirmation from that block targets 109–111k first, then the Fib cluster.
3. 98k is the outer guardrail; a daily close below weakens the broader bullish case.
C) Immediate reclaim: Momentum continuation
* A daily close above 111k without tagging 106k first suggests strong demand. Look for follow-through toward **115.8k**, monitor reactions at 117.9k–120.8k.
Trigger criteria (educational, not signals)
* Price action: Liquidity sweep of 106–107k followed by LTF CHOCH/BOS back into structure.
* Volume:** Effort vs. result divergence on the dip or visible absorption at demand.
* Indicators (optional): RSI failure swing on LTF, session VWAPreclaim, MA(20/50) compression then expansion on the reversal impulse.
Risk framing (hypothetical)
* Define risk below the swept swing if engaging 106–107k; wider risk below 101k if waiting for the FVG fill.
* Initial R:R around 1:2 into 111k; scale at 113.9k, leave runner toward 115.8k.
Seasonal context
September often delivers corrective flows; Q4 has historically skewed bullish. This view aligns with a September pullback resolving into Q4 continuation, provided 98–101k remains protected on daily closes.
Chart notes
* Rising wedge into ATH, breakdown and retest
* D1 demand/FVG 101–104k and shallow demand 106–107k
* Fibonacci confluence 113.9k → 120.8k
Disclaimer : This is an educational market study, not financial advice. Do your own research and risk management.
Bullish Reversal Ahead: Market Prepares for Sharp RecoveryThe market has been under consistent selling pressure, with a clear sequence of bearish breaks in structure confirming downside control. Price has now entered a zone where momentum shows signs of slowing, suggesting potential exhaustion in the recent decline. The sharp extension lower indicates that sellers may be reaching a short-term limit, creating conditions for a corrective rebound.
Market flow highlights that liquidity has shifted significantly downward, yet oversold conditions are building. This sets the stage for a possible recovery phase, where buyers may step in to reclaim lost ground. If this rebound develops, it could trigger a larger corrective leg to the upside, with momentum targeting higher levels.
In the near term, volatility is expected to increase as the market tests the strength of the current bottoming area. Sustained demand could shift sentiment back toward bullish recovery.
Nifty getting ready to bounce backDate: 25-Sept-25 EOD analysis
From the recent high of 25440 levels Nifty has corrected 500 points and closed at 24890 today.
Most of the sellers will now start booking profits and Nifty is likely to bounce back as new buyers will also try an entry in the 24800-24750 range.
For tmrow 26-Sep, it is likely to open gap down but may soon start 200 to 250 points upward journey. My target would be to look for buying Nifty at lower levels in 24860 to 24760 range and book profit when it reaches 24940 to 24960.
The Dollar’s Journey💵 The Dollar’s Journey – From Blastoff to Pause, and Maybe… Another Run?
Back in May 2021 , the Dollar Index (DXY) quietly started climbing. At first, nobody gave it much thought. But then 🚀 it took off—running from 89 to 114 in just over a year. That’s what traders call a parabolic move —fast, powerful, and impossible to ignore.
Then came September 2022 . The rally cooled off. The dollar stopped sprinting and instead moved sideways. For the next three years , it was all about patience. The index slipped as low as 95.5 , testing everyone’s nerves. Was the bull run dead, or just taking a breather? ⏸️
Here’s the twist: that low wasn’t random. It actually landed right on a major long-term trendline —a line that connects the tops of 2001, 2016, and 2020 . In other words, the dollar was pulling back to recharge at home base . 📉➡️📈
Now the picture gets exciting again. The correction looks done. The index is knocking on the door of 100 —and this number isn’t just psychological, it’s technical too. If DXY sustains above 100 ✅ , it could light the fuse for the next bull run 🐂💵 .
And remember, when the dollar moves, the world feels it:
* 📉 Global equities, especially emerging markets, often struggle.
* 🛢️ Commodities like gold and oil usually come under pressure.
* 💱 Other currencies—the euro, yen, pound—tend to weaken.
So here we are, three years after the peak. The dollar looks ready to decide its next chapter. Will it stay stuck in consolidation… or break out into a brand-new bull cycle? Traders, investors, and even governments are watching closely. 👀
The story of the dollar isn’t over—it might just be about to get interesting again. 📊✨
NETWEB Price actionNetweb Technologies (NETWEB) is trading at ₹1,947.40 as of July 11, 2025. The stock has shown a strong short-term recovery, up about 7.4% in the last session and nearly 6.8% over the past week, but it remains down by over 25% in the past six months. The 52-week high is ₹3,060 and the low is ₹1,251.55.
Valuation-wise, NETWEB is trading at a high price-to-earnings ratio (around 90–96) and a price-to-book ratio near 20, indicating a premium valuation. The company’s market capitalization is approximately ₹11,000 crore. Promoter holding has slightly decreased in the recent quarter.
For the near term, technical targets suggest resistance around ₹2,000–2,040 and support in the ₹1,750–1,850 range. Analyst forecasts for the next year place price targets between ₹1,824 and ₹2,805.
Fundamentally, the company is considered overvalued at current levels, despite strong recent profit growth. The stock’s premium valuation and recent volatility suggest caution for new investors, with further upside dependent on continued earnings momentum and broader market sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Sell Scenario from Red Supply Zones💰💰Price is approaching the red supply zones around 3770–3760 and 3780–3775. If a bearish confirmation candle forms within these zones, I expect a drop towards the gray support area near 3720–3710.
If this support breaks, the next target will be around the lower red trendline of the descending channel (3690–3685).
The sell scenario remains valid as long as price does not break and close above 3780.
Be sure to enter the position with capital management.
I hope you make good use of the signals and analyses I share.
Liquidity Shift Suggests Extended Bearish CycleThe market is showing a progressive decline after losing upward strength. Recent swings indicate a decisive bearish control, with successive shifts in structure confirming the downward pressure. Attempts to recover higher levels have been shallow, reflecting exhaustion on the buy side and stronger liquidity flow toward sellers.
Market behavior suggests that rallies are being used as opportunities to exit or reposition short rather than initiate sustained bullish momentum. This is consistent with the overall weakening tone across the chart, where volatility spikes have favored downward extensions.
Looking ahead, if the current pace of distribution continues, the market is likely to maintain a bearish trajectory with potential for deeper declines as liquidity seeks out lower price ranges.
BULLISH TREND - TCS - CASH OR OCT FUTURETCS is being respected at the extreme demand zone and now upside movement will start. TCS can be bought with the stoploss of 3000 and extreme target of 3500. INTERMEDIATE target of 3150-3300 are also there.
TOTAL BULLISH ON TCS TILL NOVEMBER 2025
📉 THIS CHANNEL IS ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES.
Disclaimer: I am Not a SEBI registered analyst. I just share my positions to do paper trading and no where its a recommendation! Please do your own analysis before taking any trade.
ASIANPAINT - BULLISH TRENDASIANPAINT is looking bullish with an uptrend towards 3000 mark in upcoming 4-5 months. ASIANPAINT has broken the Strong Lower High for a Market Shift of the Structure to bullish and moving towards 3000 mark very soon.
ASIANPAINT has many unmitigated order blocks and unmitigated supply zones at higher levels to be touched and processed.
Bought ASIANPAINT IN CASH at 2500 with a Stop Loss of 2440 for the first target of 2770 by next month and 2900 - 3000 in another 4 - 5 months.
📉 THIS CHANNEL IS ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES.
Disclaimer: I am Not a SEBI registered analyst. I just share my positions to do paper trading and no where its a recommendation! Please do your own analysis before taking any trade.
KIOCL (D) - Consolidates in Bullish Pattern After Massive RallyFollowing a powerful uptrend that has seen the stock gain over 125% since its bullish reversal in April 2025, KIOCL is now consolidating in a bullish Flag & Pole pattern . This chart formation is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting that the prior uptrend is likely to resume after this brief pause.
The stock is currently trading within the "flag" portion of the pattern. A breakout from this consolidation is the key trigger for the next potential move.
Broad-Based Bullish Indicators 👍
The underlying trend remains strong, supported by a host of positive technical signals:
- Multi-Timeframe Strength: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are in a bullish state across the monthly, weekly, and daily charts .
- Confirmed Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also confirms a bullish state on the monthly and weekly timeframes. While the daily RSI has not yet completed a bullish crossover, it is positioned to do so.
- Volume Buildup: A noticeable increase in trading volume during recent sessions suggests accumulation is taking place within the pattern.
Hurdles and Key Levels
For the uptrend to continue, the stock must first break out above the upper trendline of the flag pattern . Immediately following a potential breakout, it will face another significant hurdle in the form of a long-term horizontal resistance trendline .
- Bullish Case 📈: If the stock successfully breaks out of the flag pattern and sustains its momentum, the next potential price target is the resistance zone near ₹620 .
- Bearish Case 📉: If the pattern fails and momentum is not sustained, the stock could pull back to find support near the ₹420 level. The price action in the coming days will be critical.
RBL BANKStock is maintaining the move above all key EMAs, last Swing Low (242.35) took support at 50 exponential moving average, which is a good sign.
Previous resistance is becoming a support, price is consistently taking support above 20ema.
A move from here may give a good upside move.
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VIP Industries – Rising Channel Breakdown, Support Zone in FocusChart Structure
The stock completed a wave 3 advance up to 492.30. What followed is a corrective W–X–Y structure, which probably might test the previous breakout zone around 408–400. This aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and previous Wave 1 high, providing strong support.
Key Observations
The corrective leg has unfolded on weak volume, typical of a Wave 4 structure.
Recent breakdown from the rising channel suggests a final (c) leg of Wave Y into the blue support zone.
A possible wave (b) retest of the broken channel cannot be ruled out before the final dip.
As per Elliott Wave rules, Wave 4 must not overlap Wave 2 (391.85) – keeping structural integrity intact.
Trade Plan
Entry Zone: Strictly in the 408–400 support band.
Stop-Loss: 391.85 (under prior Wave 1 high, violation would invalidate the count).
Target: A new high above Wave 3, i.e., ≥492.30, as Wave 5 should extend beyond Wave 3.
Volume Insight
Correction is unfolding on weak volume – confirmation of Wave 5 will require a green volume expansion from the support zone.
Conclusion
As long as 391.85 holds, the Wave 4 correction is near its end. A rally into Wave 5 with targets above 492 remains the primary scenario. However, patience is key – entry only in the marked support band.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Technofunda Analysis – #CityUnionBank Technofunda Analysis – #CityUnionBank
1️⃣ Technicals
#CUB chart's give trendline breakout today after 4 rejections its strong signal of reversal.
Stock consolidating above 20/50 EMA after recent 20/50 EMA retesting successful
Chrt is outperforming NIFTY500 index, stronger than market.
Trendline breakout supported with healthy volume which confirms institutional interest.
Approx 1:2 Risk Reward
Entry ~215, SL ~203,
Target ~233 → 1:2
2️⃣ Fundamentals
Market Cap 15779 Cr | P/E: 13.5
Growth
Sales YoY ↑ 16% (1605 Cr v/s 1389 Cr)
EBIDT YoY ↑ 13%
Net Profit YoY ↑ 16% (306 Cr v/s 264 Cr)
EPS YoY ↑ 16% (4.13 v/s 3.57)
PEG Ratio ~0.84 (P/E 13.5 ÷ Growth 16%)
undervalued relative to growth.
Good double digit growth undervalued PEG, improving profitability looks attractive.
Disclaimer: This #technofunda analysis is only for educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell/hold recommendation. Do Your Own Research (#DYOR).
SCHWSCHW has recently delivered a Triangle Pattern breakout within the context of a long-term parallel channel that has been forming over several years. This convergence of patterns suggests a potential shift in momentum and a likely resumption of the broader trend.
The breakout from the triangle indicates emerging bullish sentiment, but a decisive breakout above the 2-year high is still pending. This level is a critical resistance, and once breached, it could confirm the breakout’s strength and initiate a more sustainable upward move.
Following such a breakout, a retest of the breakout zone would be a healthy technical development and could provide an ideal entry point for long-term investors.
Looking ahead, if the breakout holds and the stock maintains its trajectory, SCHW may attempt to reach the upper boundary of the outer parallel channel over the next 2–3 years, offering a favorable risk-reward setup for position traders and long-term investors.
Summary:
Pattern Identified: Triangle breakout within a long-term parallel channel
Key Resistance: 2-year high (yet to be broken)
Potential Entry: On breakout and subsequent retest
Medium/Long-Term Target: Upper edge of the outer parallel channel
Outlook: Bullish with long-term growth potential over 2–3 years
Bajaj Health care falling wedge pattern.Price Action: A "weapon candle breakout" is evident, with the price testing 497.60 INR, supported by a "huge volume" spike, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Pattern: A falling wedge pattern is noted, typically bullish, with the breakout suggesting a potential upward trend.
Targets and Support:
As per chart any dip up to 458 is buying opportunity for Price targets are set at 646 INR (TG1) and 784 INR (TG2).
Indicators:
RSI (14, close) at 67.72 nears overbought levels.
MACD shows a bullish crossover.
ADX is in momentum (above 25) with +DI above -DI, confirming trend strength.
Like and support.
HEGDrying volume during the pullback, tight contraction in the stock, EMAs are aligned.
There is probability of an upside move.
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📌 For learning and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.