NMDC Steel Ltd1. Stage Analysis
The stock has completed a Stage 4 decline (prolonged downtrend).
It then built a Stage 1 base (consolidation in ₹33–₹42 zone for months).
Now, it has clearly broken out into Stage 2 (advancing phase) with a surge in volume.
This is the point where institutional money usually starts accumulating.
2. Price & Volume
Breakout confirmation: Price has broken above ₹43 (previous resistance).
Volume surge: Volume at breakout is significantly higher than average, confirming accumulation.
Pivot level: The ideal pivot was around ₹43–44, and it is now trading above ₹46.9.
Accumulation signs: Tight price ranges in the base before breakout = smart money entry.
3. Relative Strength
RS vs Nifty has turned positive after months of underperformance.
The sector (metals) is also in momentum, adding conviction.
RS line is making new highs before price = strong leadership sign.
4. Risk–Reward & Stop Placement
Stop-loss: Below ₹42 (previous resistance, now support).
Target zone (first leg): ₹52–55 (approx. 15–18% from breakout).
If momentum sustains, long-term potential is ₹65–70 (next major resistance).
📌 Conclusion
Trend: Fresh Stage 2 uptrend (bullish).
Setup: Strong breakout with volume + sector tailwind.
Action: Can be accumulated on dips near ₹45–47 with stop-loss below ₹42. Aggressive traders can buy at the current level with a SL below 45.
Risk/Reward: Favorable (reward 2.5x risk in first leg).
Ideal Holding Period: Short-to-medium term (3–12 weeks) depending on follow-through.
