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Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis1. Introduction Financial markets are influenced by a vast network of economic, psychological, and structural forces. To understand price movements, one must either study the intrinsic value of an asset or analyze its price behavior. This is where fundamental and technical analysis come into play. Fundamental analysis evaluates securities by examining economic, financial, and qualitative factors. Its purpose is to estimate the true value (fair value) of a stock, commodity, or currency. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses solely on market data—primarily price and volume—to forecast future price movements. It assumes that all known fundamentals are already reflected in price. 2. What Is Fundamental Analysis? Fundamental analysis studies the underlying factors influencing a company or economy. It aims to determine whether an asset is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. Key Components of Fundamental Analysis a) Financial Statements Investors examine: Balance sheet (assets, liabilities, equity) Income statement (revenue, net profit) Cash flow statement (cash inflow/outflow) These help measure profitability, leverage, growth, liquidity, and operational efficiency. b) Economic Indicators Macro factors influence overall market conditions: GDP growth Inflation Interest rates Employment data Fiscal and monetary policy For example, rising interest rates often reduce stock market returns. c) Industry Analysis Analyzing: Industry growth rate Competition Market share Regulatory environment A strong company in a weak industry may still underperform. d) Qualitative Aspects These include: Management quality Corporate governance Brand value Innovation and product pipeline Customer loyalty Such factors often drive long-term performance. e) Valuation Models Popular methods include: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio EV/EBITDA Dividend Discount Model (DDM) These help estimate fair value compared to the market price. 3. What Is Technical Analysis? Technical analysis predicts future price movements based on historical market data such as price, volume, and market sentiment. It is commonly used by traders rather than long-term investors. Key Components of Technical Analysis a) Price Charts Different chart types help visualize market patterns: Candlestick charts Line charts Bar charts Heikin-Ashi Candlestick patterns like Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing reveal market psychology. b) Indicators and Oscillators Traders use mathematical tools to identify trends, strength, and reversals: Moving Averages (MA) RSI (Relative Strength Index) MACD Bollinger Bands Stochastic Oscillator Volume indicators Each provides signals on market entry and exit. c) Chart Patterns Patterns help anticipate future price movements: Head and Shoulders Double Top/Double Bottom Triangles Flags and Pennants Cup and handle These patterns often repeat due to consistent human behavior. d) Trend Analysis One of the most important principles: Uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) Downtrend (lower highs, lower lows) Sideways trend (range-bound market) Traders follow the trend to reduce risks. e) Support and Resistance Key price zones where buying/selling pressure increases: Support: where price tends to bounce up Resistance: where price tends to fall back Breakouts and breakdowns are major trading signals. 4. Philosophy Behind Both Analyses Fundamental Analysis Philosophy Market price does not always reflect true value. Over time, price will converge toward intrinsic value. Best for long-term investors who want to buy undervalued assets. Technical Analysis Philosophy Price discounts everything (news, emotions, fundamentals). Price moves in trends. Market psychology causes patterns that repeat over time. Best for traders focusing on short to medium time frames. 5. Time Horizon Differences Fundamental Analysis Long-term approach (months to years) Used by investors, mutual funds, and institutional players Suitable for wealth creation Technical Analysis Short-term to medium-term (minutes to weeks) Used by day traders, swing traders, scalpers Suitable for frequent trading 6. Advantages and Limitations A) Fundamental Analysis – Pros Helps identify long-term investment opportunities Provides deep understanding of a company Works well for building wealth Useful for identifying high-quality businesses Fundamental Analysis – Cons Time-consuming and complex Markets can remain irrational longer than expected Not effective for short-term trading Sudden news/events can invalidate analysis B) Technical Analysis – Pros Helps with precise entry and exit timing Works in all markets (stocks, forex, crypto, commodities) Quick and efficient Useful even without deep company knowledge Technical Analysis – Cons False signals are common Over-reliance can lead to overtrading Requires discipline and psychological control Patterns may fail during high volatility 7. Which One Should You Use? For Long-term Investors Fundamental analysis is superior because it focuses on: business strength financial health long-term growth potential It helps identify companies that compound wealth over time. For Short-term Traders Technical analysis works better due to: market-timing capabilities entry/exit precision chart-based signals Short-term price movement is mostly driven by psychology, liquidity, and volatility—technical tools capture this better. 8. Combining Both Approaches (Best Practice) Many professionals use a hybrid approach, known as Techno-Fundamental Analysis. Example Strategy: Use fundamental analysis to identify strong companies. Use technical analysis to find the right entry point. This method gives investors both quality and proper timing. 9. Conclusion Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are powerful tools, each serving different purposes in trading and investing. Fundamental analysis focuses on understanding value, financial health, and long-term prospects of assets. Technical analysis emphasizes price behavior, market psychology, and timing of trades. An ideal market participant should understand both; investors rely more on fundamentals, while traders depend heavily on technical tools. Combining both approaches enhances decision-making and offers the best balance of knowledge and timing—crucial for consistent success in financial markets.
NSE:KOTAKBANKEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Option Chain Analysis1. Understanding the Structure of an Option Chain An option chain typically has two halves: Left side → Call Options (CE) Right side → Put Options (PE) Each row corresponds to a strike price, and each strike shows several key data points: Common Columns in CE & PE: OI (Open Interest) – Total active contracts that are not yet closed. Change in OI – Shows whether new positions are being built (addition) or squared off (reduction). Volume – Number of contracts traded during the day. LTP (Last Traded Price) – Price of the option premium. Bid/Ask Prices – Best current buy and sell prices. Implied Volatility (IV) – Market expectation of volatility. The strike price sits in the center of the table, dividing Call and Put data. 2. Why Option Chain Matters Option chain analysis allows a trader to: ✓ Identify trend direction Increasing call writing may suggest bearish sentiment, while heavy put writing may suggest bullish sentiment. ✓ Spot support and resistance High Put OI indicates strong support. High Call OI indicates strong resistance. ✓ Understand market liquidity Higher OI and volume mean more active participation and better entry/exit execution. ✓ Track institutional activity Big spikes in OI usually represent large participants (FII, proprietary desks). ✓ Predict short-term price movements Based on the balance between CE and PE data. 3. Key Components of Option Chain Analysis A. Open Interest (OI) (Open Interest is the heart of option chain analysis.) Rising OI + rising price → Long Build-Up Rising OI + falling price → Short Build-Up Falling OI + rising price → Short Covering Falling OI + falling price → Long Unwinding These combinations provide clues about ongoing market activity. B. Change in Open Interest This tells you what is happening today. Example: If Put OI is rising fast, traders expect the market to stay above that strike → support. If Call OI is rising sharply, traders expect resistance at that strike. C. Option Premium and LTP Movement Premiums often rise due to: Trend strength Increased volatility (IV) Time remaining to expiry Premiums collapse due to: Trend reversal Drop in IV Time decay (theta) D. Implied Volatility (IV) IV reflects expected movement. High IV → high uncertainty → expensive options Low IV → low uncertainty → cheaper options IV also jumps ahead of major events such as RBI policy, budget, US Fed meetings, elections, etc. 4. Identifying Support & Resistance from Option Chain This is one of the most practical uses of option chain. A. Finding Support Levels Support is identified by: Highest Put OI Sharp increase in Put OI Put writers actively defending a strike Put writers (sellers) are usually strong hands, so they provide floor/ support. For example: If 22,000 PE has the highest OI, then 22,000 becomes strong support. B. Finding Resistance Levels Resistance is identified by: Highest Call OI Big Call OI additions CE writers defending a strike If 22,300 CE has the highest OI, then 22,300 becomes strong resistance. 5. PCR (Put-Call Ratio) Analysis PCR is a sentiment indicator extracted from the option chain: PCR = Total Put OI / Total Call OI Interpretation: PCR > 1 → bullish sentiment (more puts written) PCR < 1 → bearish sentiment (more calls written) PCR around 0.8–1.2 → neutral market PCR extremes: Around 1.5–1.8 → overbought (possibility of downtrend soon) Around 0.5 or lower → oversold (possibility of uptrend) 6. OI and Price Action Combination Combining price action with OI gives the highest accuracy. Bullish Signs Increasing Put OI at lower strikes Decreasing Call OI Price closing above major CE writing zones PCR rising Bearish Signs Increasing Call OI at higher strikes Heavy CE writing above spot Price closing below major PE supports PCR declining Sideways Signals Both CE and PE addition at surrounding strikes Narrow PCR near 1.0 Option premiums decaying fast 7. Option Chain Traps and Short Squeezes Option chain also reveals squeeze situations: Short Squeeze (Bullish Explosion) Heavy Call OI begins to unwind Price breaks above resistance CE writers forced to exit → premiums rise sharply Long Liquidation (Bearish Slide) Heavy Put OI unwinds Price breaks below support PE premiums shoot up These moves are usually fast and violent. 8. How to Use Option Chain for Intraday Trading Intraday traders use: A. Change in OI (minute-by-minute) This reveals immediate momentum. B. Straddle & Strangle Levels High combined premium = expected movement range. C. ATM (At-the-Money) Behavior If ATM call OI rises → bearish If ATM put OI rises → bullish D. Premium Breakout Zones Sharp change in CE or PE premium suggests a trending move starting. 9. Expiry Day Option Chain Analysis Expiry days are different because: Time decay is extreme OI changes rapidly Range-bound behavior is common On expiry: Highest CE + PE OI combination often predicts the max pain level (where sellers profit the most) Prices tend to gravitate around this level 10. Max Pain Theory Max Pain = Strike price where option buyers lose maximum money. It is calculated from the option chain. On expiry day, price often moves toward max pain. 11. Option Chain for Swing and Positional Trading Positional traders use: Total OI across all strikes IV trends Monthly expiry data Support/resistance based on long-term OI If Put OI is high for next month → bullish for swing trades. If Call OI dominates → bearish. 12. Mistakes Traders Make in Option Chain Reading Only checking OI without price action Ignoring IV changes Misinterpreting unwinding phases Trading without considering broader market events Following high OI blindly without confirming by price behavior Option chain should be combined with technical analysis for best results. 13. Practical Example Summary (How a Trader Should Use the Chain) Identify highest PE OI → support Identify highest CE OI → resistance Analyze Change in OI → fresh positions being created Check PCR → market sentiment Observe IV → volatility expectations Track premium movement → strength of buyers or sellers Combine with price action to confirm trend Final Thoughts Option Chain Analysis is a vital skill for traders in index and stock derivatives. It reveals the psychology of option writers, helps identify crucial levels, indicates short-term momentum, and offers insights into market direction. When used properly along with charting tools, it significantly enhances accuracy in intraday, swing, and expiry trading.
Education
by TechnicalExpress
BTC USD SHORT ✅ BTCUSD – Sell Setup (based on your chart) Sell Entry 👉 90,750 – 90,850 zone This is where your chart shows a retest + rejection of the trendline & EMA zone. 🎯 Take-Profit Levels (TP) TP1 (Safe Target) 89,800 • First liquidity pocket • Near S1 line • Easy to hit in a small dump TP2 (Main Target) 88,700 – 88,400 • Clear demand zone • Your yellow line hits this area • Previous support & Monday high region TP3 (Extended Target) 87,900 – 87,800 • Final drop level in your projection • Last strong support before reversal zone 🛡️ Stop-Loss (SL) SL Above Rejection Zone 91,150 – 91,250 Why? • Break above this means structure flips bullish • Break above descending trendline • Above your M2 level + EMA cluster This SL gives the trade room to breathe without invalidating the bearish setup. 📌 Final Trade Summary Component Level Sell Entry 90,750–90,850 SL 91,150–91,250 TP1 89,800 TP2 88,700–88,400 TP3 87,900–87,800
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Skalpfi
Gold 4H – Can XAUUSD reject 4245 before diving into 4140?📈 Market Context Gold rallied as the U.S. dollar closed softer on repriced Fed rate-cut expectations, with market headline flow confirming USD finishes lower and gold rallies on renewed cuts timing debates — a setup that encourages external liquidity raiding before weekly direction is revealed. Forex Factory 4H conditions are classic for liquidity engineering: price trades near balanced mid-range flows, institutions exploit USD weakness into weekly open, and both buyer/seller pools are vulnerable to strategic sweeping before expansion. Expect volatility spikes around U.S. session opens and PMI headline catalysts. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) 🟢 Buy Zone: 4140–4138 SL: 4130 TP targets: 4175 → 4200 → 4220 → 4250 → 4280+ Rationale: • Discount zone beneath 4H liquidity shelf • Demand mitigation + accumulation narrative after sweep 🔴 Sell Zone: 4245–4247 SL: 4255 TP targets: 4220 → 4200 → 4175 → 4150 → 4140 Rationale: • Premium supply above equal-high liquidity • 4H imbalance magnet below waiting to be filled ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS confirmation before entries — avoid blind positioning. • Expect wider spreads and wick manipulation on USD headline releases. • Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact USD news (PMI, Fed speakers). • Scale partials at each TP level, let runners work only after confirmation is printed. Summary Gold remains in 4H rangebound engineering territory where Smart Money is likely to sweep premium above 4245, deliver a correction to 4140, then seek a validated bullish reaction from discount demand on confirmed USD volatility. Patience and confirmation first. Liquidity always wins. 🚀 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
NELCAST 1 Month Time Frame 📌 Recent snapshot As of 28 Nov 2025, Nelcast closed around ₹116. Over the past 1 month, the stock has seen a ~ –9 % return. The 52-week trading range: low ~ ₹78, high ~ ₹180. ✅ My View (with caution) Nelcast seems fairly valued — perhaps a bit stretched relative to estimated intrinsic value. In short term (1 month), a range between ₹112–₹125 seems the most probable, unless there’s a sharp catalyst (good or bad). If I were you — and purely for trading or short-term view — I’d watch for a dip toward ₹110–₹112 (as a possible “buy zone / entry”) and a rebound toward ₹124–₹125.
NSE:NELCASTLong
by Knowledgehub
MARKSANS 1 Day time Frame 📌 Current Price & Broad Context Latest share price: ≈ ₹187.95. 52-week range: Low ~ ₹162.00, High ~ ₹358.70. Recent trend: The stock is significantly below its 52-week high; price has fallen roughly 25–45% over the past 6–12 months. 🧮 What to Watch / Combine with Other Views Daily technicals show neutral-to-bearish bias, with some structural support around long-term moving average. But longer-term fundamentals (company financials, order book, approvals, sector sentiment) could disrupt this — technicals are just one lens. Because the stock is well below its 52-week high, there’s scope for rebound — but also risk: price could continue downward if sentiment remains weak. For better clarity: it’s often helpful to check 1-week or 1-month charts along with volume, open interest (if derivatives), and any corporate/news events.
NSE:MARKSANSLong
by Knowledgehub
TEJASNET 1 Day Time Frame 📌 Current Price & Context Recent data shows TEJASNET trading around ₹494–₹496. 52-week range: Low ~ ₹474.45, High ~ ₹1,402.70. On 1-day/short-term technicals: the consensus remains “Sell / Strong Sell”. So — the stock is near its lower end of the 52-week range, but short-term momentum is weak. ✅ What This Means for Traders (1-Day / Intraday) As of now, bias on 1-day timeframe remains bearish / neutral. Unless there is a strong positive catalyst, further downside or consolidation is more likely than a sustained bounce. The zone around ₹484–₹486 (and possibly down to ₹471–₹475) is critical support — a breakdown below could open a bigger downside swing. On the upside, watch ₹511–₹512 and then ₹520–₹525 for any meaningful resistance breaks — only a close above these may suggest short-term relief. Because moving averages are well above current price, any upside rally may remain limited unless volume and market-wide sentiment improve.
NSE:TEJASNETLong
by Knowledgehub
BATAINDIA 1 Month Time Frame 📌 Recent Price & Context The stock has recently traded around ₹1,000–₹1,010 levels. The 52-week high is ~₹1,479; 52-week low is ~₹996–₹1,005 (depending on the source) — so recent levels are close to the lower end of the 52-week range. The stock has been under pressure lately, partly due to weak Q2 FY26 results which dragged sentiment. ⚠️ Key Risks & What’s Dragging the Stock Weak recent financial performance — recent quarter’s poor results have weighed on sentiment. Technical picture remains weak: price below all major moving averages, multiple sell signals on daily charts. High volatility and lack of clarity on demand — any bounce may be shallow unless firm positive triggers come (e.g. good sales data, broader market up-move, sector tailwinds).
NSE:BATAINDIALong
by Knowledgehub
Part 6 Learn Institutional TradingWhy Trade Options? Options offer several strategic advantages: a. Hedging Investors use options to protect their portfolio. For example, buying a put option can insure against a fall in stock prices, similar to buying insurance. b. Speculation Traders can bet on price movements—up, down, or even sideways—using options. c. Income Generation Many traders sell options (covered calls, cash-secured puts) to earn regular premiums. d. Leverage Options allow control of large positions with a relatively small amount of capital.
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by SkyTradingZone
Part 4 Learn Institutional TradingParties Involved in an Options Contract There are two sides to every options contract: Option Buyer Pays the premium. Has limited risk (only the premium paid). Has unlimited profit potential in call options and significant potential in puts. Option Seller (Writer) Receives the premium. Has limited profit (only the premium collected). Faces potentially unlimited risk in calls and large risk in puts. Option sellers generally need higher margin because they take the greater risk.
Education
by SkyTradingZone
Part 3 Learn Institutional Trading What Are Options? An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price—known as the strike price—before or on a specific date called the expiry. There are two types of options: Call Option – Gives the right to buy an asset. Put Option – Gives the right to sell an asset. The buyer of an option pays a fee called the premium, which is the price of the contract. In India, stock options follow an American-style exercise, allowing early exercise, while index options are European-style, meaning they can only be exercised on expiry day.
Education
by SkyTradingZone
XAUUSD – H4 Fibonacci Supports the Bullish Trend, Prefer ...XAUUSD – H4 Fibonacci Supports the Bullish Trend, Prefer Buying at the POC for the Coming Week Gold closed Friday near 4,215, following a strong rally after the CME system glitch. On the H4 timeframe, the bullish structure is now clearly forming and remains relatively stable. Price has just broken out of a multi-day consolidation zone and is moving into the Fibonacci extension levels. With the current context, I continue to prioritise medium-term buy setups on pullbacks to the POC, rather than chasing price at new highs. 🎯 Primary Trading Plan – BUY THE DIP Using Fibonacci & POC Buy Entry: around 4,187 Stop Loss: 4,175 Target Levels: 4,225 – 4,240 – 4,290 – 4,300 These profit-taking zones are derived from the H4 Fibonacci extensions, with the 1.618–2.618 levels being areas where strong profit-taking often appears in the market. For every position, I maintain risk at only 1–2% of the account — staying in the game matters more than trying to catch every top or bottom of a wave. Key Level: 4,160 is the major support and the “life line” of the H4 uptrend. If price breaks below and closes under 4,160 on H4, the current bullish structure is invalidated. In that case, I will pause the BUY scenario and rebuild a new plan — possibly considering a deeper SELL setup in the next analysis. 1. Fundamental Context Gold’s strong recovery momentum recently slowed down after failing to stay above the 4,160 region. However, the previous rally took place while the USD was weakening again, despite US bond yields attempting to recover across the curve. On the higher timeframes, gold is on track for its fourth consecutive bullish month, following the major breakout in October that once again drew attention to the 4,400 region. Prolonged geopolitical tensions combined with expectations of further Fed rate cuts give buyers enough reason to maintain mid-term positions, even if short-term volatility increases. Overall, the fundamentals remain supportive of the uptrend — unless there is a major shift in interest-rate expectations or systemic risk. 2. H4 Technical Analysis – Fibonacci Perspective The previous consolidation zone around 4,160–4,185 was broken to the upside with a series of strong bullish candles, confirming a higher-high, higher-low structure on H4. The POC (Point of Control) has shifted upward to 4,187, signalling heavy trading activity before the breakout — a suitable area for waiting on a retest to buy again. Fibonacci extensions from the latest bullish swing highlight important resistance clusters ahead: 1.618: the 4.24x zone — first profit-taking target, likely to see volatility. 2.618: the 4.35x–4.36x region — an extended target if the bullish trend continues strongly. With this structure, any pullback to 4,187 while holding above 4,160 is, for me, a medium-term BUY opportunity, not a reversal signal. 3. Market Sentiment & Action Plan After a strong rally, the market is experiencing FOMO buying at elevated levels. This phase often brings sudden pullbacks to shake out late buyers. I avoid chasing the price during this stage. Instead, I wait for price to revisit the POC at 4,187, where volume previously accumulated, to secure a better risk-to-reward and a tighter SL. If buyers truly dominate, they will protect the 4,160–4,187 region. If not, stepping aside after structure breaks is safer than forcing a bias. Plan for Next Week Priority: Buy around 4,187 SL: 4,175 TP: 4,225 – 4,240 – 4,290 – 4,300 If price breaks strongly below 4,160 and closes under it on H4 → Cancel all BUY plans and wait for a new structure before considering any deep correction SELL setup. Do not chase buys near high Fibonacci extension levels unless there is a clear intraday setup with a well-defined SL. If you find this perspective useful for your gold trading plan next week, follow the TradingView account and share which levels you are watching for entries. I always read the feedback to improve future analyses.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Crompton 1 Month Time Frame 📉 Recent context & background The stock recently hit a fresh 52-week low — around ₹267.5–₹271.25. Latest quarter (Q2 Sep-2025) saw a sharp profit drop: net profit fell ~43% YoY, with EBITDA margin under pressure due to commodity cost inflation and restructuring costs. On the flip side, the company’s broader business mix (like pumps / small domestic appliances / solar-rooftop orders) and some analyst estimates still see potential for recovery. 🧭 What could move the price in next 1 month Positive triggers: Any signs of margin recovery, easing of commodity inflation, good order wins (e.g. solar-segment orders or domestic appliance demand), supportive news or institutional interest. Negative triggers: Continuation of margin pressure, weak demand in core categories, negative macro / interest-rate or inflation environment, or broader investor risk-off sentiment. 🎯 My Base-Case 1-Month Scenarios Bearish to neutral scenario: Price may hover or drift around ₹260–₹285, possibly bouncing between support (₹265–₹270) and resistance (₹280–₹290). Bullish/recovery scenario: If sentiment improves, stock could aim for ₹300–₹330 over the next 3–4 weeks — especially if company provides encouraging updates or sector environment improves. Upside breakout scenario (less likely in short 1-month): A push toward ₹340 is possible only if there’s a strong catalyst (e.g., margin rebound, big orders, broadly bullish market) — but that feels optimistic for just 1 month.
NSE:CROMPTONLong
by Knowledgehub
Gold 4H – Liquidity Plays Ahead of Fed Minutes & PMI Data🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold continues to trade inside a controlled 4H consolidation as markets brace for a highly event-driven week: U.S. PMI releases, updated Fed guidance, and renewed debates over the timing of future rate cuts. Recent data has shown mixed momentum — softer employment trends but steady business activity — keeping the dollar volatile and gold reactive near mid-range liquidity. Institutional flows remain cautious, reducing aggressive positioning ahead of major macro catalysts. This environment typically leads to engineered sweeps on both sides of the range as Smart Money hunts liquidity before revealing direction. Expect short-term volatility spikes, especially around U.S. session opens and PMI releases. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) • Price is navigating a minor bearish structure, forming lower highs while protecting deeper liquidity beneath 4020. • The recent 4H BOS + corrective pullback suggests the market may generate a liquidity grab toward the discount zone before any strong bullish leg develops. • A Premium Sell Zone at 4225–4227 sits above resting liquidity, making it an ideal region for stop hunts and short-term distribution. • The Discount Buy Zone at 4010–4008 aligns with structural reaction points, unmitigated demand, and a liquidity shelf — ideal for accumulation. • Mid-range liquidity around 4060–4080 may be swept before the market chooses a larger weekly direction. 🟢 Buy Zone: 4010–4008 SL: 4000 TP targets: 4085 → 4120 → 4175 → 4220 Rationale: • Deep discount zone beneath 4H liquidity • Confluence of demand + structural mitigation • High probability of engineered sweep before bullish expansion 🔴 Sell Zone: 4225–4227 SL: 4235 TP targets: 4175 → 4120 → 4060 → 4015 Rationale: • Premium supply above equal-high liquidity • Favors stop hunt + distribution before correction • Aligns with previous 4H rejection and imbalance fill ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS inside each zone before entering — avoid blind entries. • Expect spreads and liquidity manipulation around news: US PMI, Fed speeches, and data surprises. • Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact events. • Scale partial profits at each structural target to secure gains and let runners develop. ✅ Summary Gold remains trapped in a structured 4H range where Smart Money is likely to sweep one side before delivering a decisive expansion. Discounted buys at 4010–4008 and premium sells at 4225–4227 remain the highest-probability weekly setups. Stay patient, respect liquidity, and follow confirmation. 🔔 FOLLOW @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
XAUUSD – Weekly outlookXAUUSD – Weekly outlook: structure points towards 4,580 as long as bulls hold the line Brian – Favouring buy-the-dip setups while price holds above 3,996 1. Market overview – triangle break and trend confirmation On the daily chart, gold has finally broken out of the long consolidation triangle, with Friday’s candle closing cleanly above the descending trendline that has capped price for weeks. For me, this breakout is the first proper confirmation that the primary bullish trend is resuming. The next major resistance on the chart sits around 4,246 – a key level I’m watching as a trend-confirmation line. If price can break and hold above 4,246, the path towards the higher zone around 4,580 opens up, in line with the Fibonacci extension drawn on the chart. In short: the structure into next week is bullish, with pullbacks seen as opportunities to position for a potential move towards new highs. 2. Technical structure – from breakout to extension targets The breakout from the triangle comes after a sequence of higher lows bouncing off the rising trendline, indicating accumulation rather than distribution. Below price, we have demand zones clustered around the 4,110 trendline area and deeper supports near 4,040 and 3,920. Above price, the roadmap is fairly clear: First, a test of 4,246 (local resistance & former supply). Then the ATH / prior high region around 4,360–4,380. Finally, the Fibonacci 1.618 extension projects into the 4,560–4,580 zone, which is my medium-term upside objective if bulls can maintain control. As long as daily structure keeps printing higher highs and higher lows and price stays above the key invalidation at 3,996, I will continue to treat gold as buy-on-dip rather than looking for major tops. 3. Key zones & trading ideas for next week I’m not treating this as a signal service, but here’s how I’m mapping the chart for my own trading: Primary idea – Buy the dip into trendline / support Watch zone: around the rising trendline near 4,110. If price pulls back into this area early in the week and shows a clear rejection on H4/D1 (wick rejections, bullish engulfing etc.), I’ll be interested in building long positions. Upside path: First objective: 4,246 – trend-confirmation resistance. If broken and retested from above, the next leg could extend towards 4,360–4,380. Extension target: 4,560–4,580 in line with the 1.618 Fibonacci projection. Secondary idea – Using Fibonacci zones on break above 4,246 If gold breaks and holds above 4,246, the Fibonacci zones between roughly 4,360 and 4,580 become interesting for scaling in / managing positions: Partial profits or tight trailing stops can be considered as we approach 4,360–4,380. Any healthy corrective pullback from that region that respects the rising structure could still offer add-on entries with the 4,580 zone as a medium-term target. Invalidation: A daily close below 3,996 would seriously damage this bullish structure and force me to reassess. Below that, I would step aside and wait for a new pattern rather than trying to force the long idea. 4. Fundamental backdrop – why gold still has a bid From a macro point of view, gold is navigating a mix of: Tariff and trade tensions, which keep hedging demand alive as investors look for protection against policy shocks. Ongoing geopolitical risks and conflict, supporting gold’s role as a classic safe-haven asset. A late-cycle interest-rate environment, where markets are increasingly focused on when and how aggressively central banks will adjust policy after a period of elevated rates and liquidity distortions. This combination tends to limit the downside for gold: even when we see corrections, dip-buyers are never too far away, especially when the technical structure is aligned with the macro story. 5. Strategy & risk management Into next week, my bias is clear: structure is bullish above 3,996, so I prefer buying pullbacks rather than trying to short into strength. The trendline around 4,110 is my first area of interest for fresh longs; anything closer to 4,040–4,000 (if we see a deeper flush) would be considered an even better price, provided the daily structure doesn’t break. As always, position sizing and stop placement are key – one good weekly move is far more valuable than several emotional entries trying to catch every candle. What do you reckon – does this breakout have enough fuel to take us towards 4,580, or do you see a deeper correction setting up first? Feel free to share your view in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS MID-TERM WAVE 5 TOWARDS THE ATH ZONE AT ...XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS MID-TERM WAVE 5 TOWARDS THE ATH ZONE AT 4360 1. Fundamental Analysis On the geopolitical front, President Putin has once again reiterated the conditions for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While the possibility of a peace agreement remains uncertain, his firm stance suggests the conflict is unlikely to end soon. This keeps gold supported as a mid-term safe-haven asset. On the US side, Donald Trump continues to emphasise that the stock market will keep making new all-time highs, and even mentioned the potential removal of most income taxes, replacing them with tariff-based revenue. These comments fuel “risk-on” sentiment for equities and the USD, creating short-term fluctuations for gold. Overall, Lana expects gold to maintain a mid-term bullish bias over the next 1–2 weeks, though short-term volatility is likely as the market constantly re-prices geopolitical risks and US policy expectations. 2. Technical Analysis On the D1 timeframe, gold is forming a mid-term Elliott Wave 5 structure. Wave (4) has completed at a key support region, accompanied by a bullish market structure shift (MSS), signalling the start of Wave (5). Using the Fibonacci extension tool, the theoretical target for Wave (5) lies around the 2.618 extension at 4360 — a strong psychological level and close to the potential ATH zone, where significant profit-taking from buyers may appear. On the way up, the 4246 level is a major resistance zone: If price breaks this level decisively and closes above it on D1, the bullish trend strengthens, confirming buyers are willing to push price to new highs. The descending trendline has already been broken. After the breakout, price retested the line and bounced, showing buyers have regained control. A pullback towards the trendline zone at 4133–4139 would give Lana a clean opportunity to join Wave 5 with a better risk-to-reward ratio. 3. Key Price Levels to Watch Major Resistance / Mid-term Take-Profit Zones: 4240 – 4246: Intermediate resistance; needs a clear breakout to reinforce the bullish trend. 4360: Fibonacci 2.618 extension & potential ATH target for Wave 5. Support / Potential Buy Zones: 4133 – 4139: Near the trendline; Lana’s preferred buy zone if price pulls back. 4124: Technical stop-loss level; a break below may weaken the short-term bullish wave structure. 4. Trade Setup BUY: 4133 – 4139 SL: 4124 TP: 4240 – 4280 – 4350 👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the earliest gold analysis updates. 💛
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD – LANA WAITING TO BUY THE CONTINUATION WITHIN THE ...XAUUSD – LANA WAITING TO BUY THE CONTINUATION WITHIN THE UPTREND CHANNEL 1. Fundamental Analysis Gold is maintaining its upward momentum as investors closely monitor the Russia–Ukraine tension and the mixed signals around potential peace efforts. President Putin’s recent statements suggest peace proposals could form the basis of a future agreement, yet Russia is still prepared to continue fighting if conditions are not favourable. This creates a mixed risk environment — reducing short-term safe-haven demand but still keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated, which may pressure the USD in the medium term. In this context, Lana prefers the scenario where gold continues to follow the broader uptrend, looking for opportunities to buy on technical pullbacks into major liquidity zones rather than FOMO entries at higher prices. 2. Technical Analysis On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD is moving inside a clear ascending channel, currently trading near the midline of the channel. The dominant structure remains bullish, with no sign of a break of market structure. After a strong bullish candle, the market left a Strong Liquidity area below and created a small Gap under the channel — this is where Lana expects price to retrace and retest before resuming the upward movement. The Buy zone aligns with a major liquidity region near 4,166–4,167, close to the lower boundary of the channel — an ideal level for continuation buys during a controlled pullback. Using Fibonacci extensions, the key levels include: 1.618: near the current price — a region where price often pauses or consolidates 2.618: around 4,210 — Lana marks this as a potential short-term Sell scalping zone 3.618: around 4,235–4,237 — a stronger Sell zone where heavy profit-taking may appear The 4,155 level is a key structural boundary: If price breaks below and holds under this zone, Lana will stop prioritising long-term buy setups, as the bullish channel may be invalidated. 3. Key Levels to Watch Support / Buy zone & strong liquidity: 4,166 – 4,167 (near the midline descending toward the lower channel boundary) 4,155 — mid-term trend boundary Resistance / Fibo extension & Sell zones: 4,210 – 4,213: Sell scalping zone (Fibo 2.618) 4,235 – 4,237: Strong Sell zone (Fibo 3.618), near the channel top 4. Trade Setups BUY Setup: Buy: 4166 – 4167 SL: 4160 TP: 4182 – 4195 – 4210 – 4250 SELL Setup 1: Sell: 4210 – 4213 SL: 4218 TP: 4200 – 4185 – 4160 – 4145 SELL Setup 2: Sell: 4235 – 4237 SL: 4243 TP: 4212 – 4200 – 4185 – 4160 👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to read all updates early. 💛
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
CADJPY could keep rising furtherOANDA:CADJPY The market has been on a clear upward trajectory for some time, with each swing reaching higher peaks and forming higher lows. The rising trendline has been the driving force behind this momentum. Following the recent surge, the price has pulled back slightly, forming a textbook bullish flag pattern. This is the kind of price action you want to see in a strong uptrend—a controlled retracement with a minor dip, without any aggressive selling pressure. The bears have failed to break the low, and the bullish momentum remains intact. As a result, the overall trend continues to hold steady. Right now, the price is breaking out of the flag pattern, and it looks like this trend is poised to continue. As long as the price stays above the trendline and doesn’t breach the flag's low, my outlook remains bullish. My target is set at 113.150.
Long
by Luiss_Miguel
ADANIENT - Range Support Retest near 2280💹 Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT) Sector: Conglomerate | CMP: 2280.00 | View: Range Support Retest near 2280 ADANIENT spent the day moving weakly, and the price behaviour was fairly simple to understand. The stock opened soft, tried to move up for a short while, but sellers stepped in around 2320–2340 and pushed it back down. After that, the price slowly fell and ended close to 2280 again. This shows that sellers were stronger throughout the day. The volumes also increased on the down-moves, which means the selling was genuine, not panic. On bigger charts, the stock has been moving inside a wide range between 2240 at the bottom and 2600 at the top. Every time it tries to go up near 2320–2360 or even higher toward 2540–2600, it gets rejected. Since it is now close to the lower part of this range again, the stock is still sideways — not in a strong uptrend. For a beginner, the simple takeaway is: sellers are active above 2320, buyers support the stock near 2240–2280, and until one side breaks these levels, the stock will continue to move inside this range. Today’s option activity shows that traders were expecting ADANIENT to stay within a range rather than make a big breakout. Call options (especially the 2300 CE) saw buying earlier in the day, which usually signals that some traders were hoping for an upward move if the stock stayed above support. However, not all call strikes were useful — some were too deep in the money or too far out of the money, making them less effective for quick intraday moves. On the put side, a lot of traders were selling puts at 2280 and 2300. When traders sell puts, it usually means they believe the stock will stay above those levels. This also keeps put premiums lower, because sellers expect stability rather than a big fall. Since the price stayed near support, the put sellers had the advantage — they earned from slow premium decay. Volatility (IV) remained moderate, meaning the market wasn’t expecting a huge jump or crash. The overall setup shows a tug-of-war: call buyers are holding on for a bounce, while put sellers are confident that 2280–2300 will act as a support zone. In simple terms: • If ADANIENT stays above 2280, call options may gain. • If ADANIENT breaks below 2280, the fall may continue — but usually only after a retest confirms the breakdown. This structure fits a typical range-bound market where both sides are active but support levels still matter. For next session, the most important level on the chart is 2280. If the stock stays above this area, it can bounce toward 2320–2340. If it slips below 2280 and fails to get back above it, the next support lies around 2240–2250. For a bounce setup, the cleaner option is the 2300 CE — only take it if the stock holds 2280 and then climbs back above 2292–2295 on a 5 or 15-minute chart. Exit if the option premium drops around 20–25% or if the stock closes below 2275. For a breakdown setup, the safer choice is the 2260 PE, but only after the stock breaks 2280, retests it from below, and stays under 2275. Exit if the premium falls about 25–30% or if the spot goes back above 2285. Avoid trading in the tight 2280–2298 band — price gets choppy there and option premiums decay quickly. Keep your position sizes reasonable and use strict stop-losses based on option premium, not just spot price. Watch how open interest and volumes behave — sudden changes often reveal the next move early. Overall, 2280–2300 is the fight zone. Holding it means a possible bounce; losing it opens the door to a deeper dip. Monday may be volatile in the first hour, so follow levels, watch volume, and react only after confirmation. ⚠️ STWP Legal Disclaimer This document is strictly for educational and informational purposes. All examples, charts, levels, and option structures discussed are illustrative and are not intended as buy, sell, or hold recommendations. STWP does not provide investment advice, trading tips, signals, or personalized financial guidance of any kind, nor is it a SEBI-registered intermediary or research analyst. The analyses, illustrations, and risk–reward structures included here are generic in nature and based on publicly available data and observed market behaviour, which may change without notice. Financial markets involve significant risk; derivatives in particular carry the potential for substantial losses. Option premiums, implied volatility, open interest, delta, and other market variables can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably. Readers are solely responsible for their trading decisions, capital management, and risk assessment. Before making any investment or trading decision, please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor. STWP, its representatives, and affiliates shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this material. Historical patterns or past market behaviour do not guarantee future outcomes, nor should any part of this document be interpreted as a promise of performance, accuracy, or returns. Position Status: No active position in this instrument at the time of analysis. Data Source: TradingView & NSE India. 💬 Found this useful? 🔼 Boost this post to support structured learning ✍️ Share your thoughts or questions in the comments 🔁 Forward this to traders who value clean technical studies 👉 Follow for disciplined, structured, STWP-style analysis 🚀 Stay Calm. Stay Clean. Trade With Patience. Trade Smart | Learn Zones | Be Self-Reliant 📊
NSE:ADANIENT
by simpletradewithpatience
$PEPE Weekly Support Broken Or the Perfect Trap Before a Pump?CRYPTOCAP:PEPE Weekly Support Broken Or the Perfect Trap Before a Pump? CRYPTOCAP:PEPE lost its weekly support and is now trading below it, which looks more like a full liquidity sweep than a real trend shift. I’m expecting a 50–100% relief rally before the next major move. If key S/R flips and holds, we could see another memecoin cycle, with 1,000–1,500% upside back on the table. Support / Accumulation: $0.00000280 / $0.00000136 Resistance / Targets: $0.00000914 → $0.00001380 → $0.00002443 → $0.00004494 Watch my levels closely before entering any trades. NFA & DYOR
Long
by CryptoPatel