Gold Trading Strategy for 18th December 2025## 🟡 GOLD INTRADAY TRADING PLAN (15‑MIN CHART)
## 📈 TREND TRADING SETUP (15‑MIN CONFIRMATION)
### 🟢 BUY SETUP (Upside Breakout)
* 🔹 **Condition:** Buy **above the HIGH** of the **15‑minute candle** that **closes above 4358**
* 🔹 **Entry Logic:** Strong bullish close above resistance confirms upside momentum
🎯 **Targets:**
* 🎯 **Target 1:** 4370
* 🎯 **Target 2:** 4382
* 🎯 **Target 3:** 4399
🛑 **Stop‑Loss:**
* Below the low of the breakout 15‑minute candle or as per your risk management
---
### 🔴 SELL SETUP (Downside Breakdown)
* 🔹 **Condition:** Sell **below the LOW** of the **15‑minute candle** that **closes below 4310**
* 🔹 **Entry Logic:** Bearish close below support confirms downside continuation
🎯 **Targets:**
* 🎯 **Target 1:** 4298
* 🎯 **Target 2:** 4287
* 🎯 **Target 3:** 4275
🛑 **Stop‑Loss:**
* Above the high of the breakdown 15‑minute candle or as per your risk management
---
## ⚡ SCALPING SETUP (Quick Trades)
### 🔻 SELL SCALP – REJECTION ZONE
* 📍 **Zone:** 4351
* 📌 **Condition:** If price **rejects from 4351 zone** (wick rejection / bearish candle)
* 📉 **Action:** SELL
🎯 **Target:**
* ✅ **5 to 10 points**
* 🔁 Or **trail stop‑loss** with price movement
🛑 **Stop‑Loss:**
* Just above the rejection high
---
### 🔺 BUY SCALP – REJECTION ZONE
* 📍 **Zone:** 4318
* 📌 **Condition:** If price **rejects from 4318 zone** (wick rejection / bullish candle)
* 📈 **Action:** BUY
🎯 **Target:**
* ✅ **5 to 10 points**
* 🔁 Or **trail stop‑loss** with price movement
🛑 **Stop‑Loss:**
* Just below the rejection low
---
## 📌 IMPORTANT TRADING NOTES
* ⏰ Trade only after **15‑minute candle close confirmation**
* 📊 Follow **proper risk management** on every trade
* ❌ Avoid over‑trading
* 🔄 Trail stop‑loss once trade moves in your favor
---
## ⚠️ DISCLAIMER
🚨 **This analysis is for educational purposes only.**
🚨 **Not a buy or sell recommendation.**
🚨 Trading in commodities involves **high risk** and may not be suitable for all investors.
🚨 Please consult your **financial advisor** before taking any trades.
🚨 The author is **not responsible** for any profit or loss arising from the use of this information.
---
✨ *Trade with discipline. Protect capital first, profits will follow.*
Chart Patterns
HEROMOTOCO - Rejection From Strong Resistance, Momentum Cooling💹 Hero MotoCorp Ltd (NSE: HEROMOTOCO)
Sector: Automobiles | CMP: 5817
View: Bearish — Rejection From Strong Resistance, Momentum Cooling
HEROMOTOCO has recently faced a sharp rejection from its upper resistance zone near the 6100–6200 region after a strong prior rally, indicating supply emergence at higher levels rather than healthy consolidation. The subsequent decline has been decisive, with price slipping back below key short-term levels, suggesting that the recent upswing may have been a momentum-driven leg rather than the start of a sustained trend. Current price behaviour reflects a cooling phase following distribution near the highs.
From a structural perspective, the stock remains within a broader developing framework, but near-term momentum has weakened. RSI around 42.6 sits in a neutral-to-healthy zone, indicating that the stock is neither oversold nor displaying reversal exhaustion. Stochastic has cooled from elevated levels, while MACD signals point to loss of bullish momentum rather than aggressive bearish acceleration. ADX suggests the trend is still developing, though recent behaviour highlights a transition from expansion to consolidation or pullback.
Volume participation remains moderate (Vol-X ~0.83), confirming that the recent decline is orderly and controlled, not panic-driven. This reduces the probability of sharp capitulation but keeps downside risk open as long as price fails to reclaim overhead supply. The current structure favours patience, with markets reassessing value after a strong prior move.
Key price references show strong overhead resistance clustered near 5931–6045 and further up around 6120, while immediate structural supports are placed near 5742, followed by 5668 and 5553, defining the current risk-reward envelope. Sustained acceptance above the resistance band would be required to restore bullish confidence, while continued trade below this zone keeps the bias tilted to the downside or range-bound with elevated volatility.
On the derivatives side, near-ATM CALLs and PUTs are referenced strictly for analytical insight into positioning behaviour. CALL-side data shows rising open interest with moderate volume expansion, indicating short build-up rather than directional strength, while PUT-side activity reflects short-covering-led participation, suggesting defensive repositioning rather than fresh aggressive bearish bets. Implied volatility remains in a relatively low-to-moderate band, pointing to measured risk pricing rather than fear-driven expansion. Overall, derivatives behaviour aligns with a cooling, non-trending phase, where conviction remains mixed and momentum-dependent.
Structure quality metrics reflect this balance. The STWP Edge Score in the moderate range highlights tradability but not high-conviction trend alignment. Liquidity remains concentrated near ATM strikes, supporting participation, but directional option structures remain sensitive to time decay and price stalling, reinforcing the importance of confirmation through price acceptance or rejection at key levels.
Overall, HEROMOTOCO is currently in a post-rally digestion phase, with bearish pressure emerging near resistance and momentum moderating. While deeper downside is possible if supports fail, the absence of capitulation volume suggests that the stock may oscillate within a defined range unless fresh directional conviction develops.
Final Outlook (Educational Snapshot):
Momentum: Neutral| Trend: Developing / Cooling | Risk: Low | Volume: Normal
⚠️ STWP Legal Disclaimer
This document is strictly for educational and informational purposes. All examples, charts, levels, and option structures discussed are illustrative and are not intended as buy, sell, or hold recommendations. STWP does not provide investment advice, trading tips, signals, or personalized financial guidance of any kind, nor is it a SEBI-registered intermediary or research analyst. The analyses, illustrations, and risk–reward structures included here are generic in nature and based on publicly available data and observed market behaviour, which may change without notice. Financial markets involve significant risk; derivatives in particular carry the potential for substantial losses. Option premiums, implied volatility, open interest, delta, and other market variables can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably.
Readers are solely responsible for their trading decisions, capital management, and risk assessment. Before making any investment or trading decision, please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor. STWP, its representatives, and affiliates shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this material. Historical patterns or past market behaviour do not guarantee future outcomes, nor should any part of this document be interpreted as a promise of performance, accuracy, or returns.
Position Status: No active position in this instrument at the time of analysis.
Data Source: TradingView & NSE India.
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Palantir Short: Head and Shoulders.Palantir looking like its forming a textbook example of an Head and Shoulders pattern!
I anticipate as (if?) NDQ and SPX keeps declining and for this head and shoulders patterns to execute flawlessly.
There are also contributing signs like seen by the resistance in 180-190 area marked on my chart.
But the key metric for me is VOLUME , volume was very low during our last thrust up which signals to me a trend change for the coming weeks might unfold soon.
POLYCAB - Breakdown From Distribution Range💹 Polycab India Ltd (NSE: POLYCAB)
Sector: Electricals / Cables | CMP: 7079.5
View: Bearish — Breakdown From Distribution Range
POLYCAB has decisively slipped below its short-term consolidation zone, following a failed attempt to sustain above the 7600–7800 supply region. The rejection from this upper band was sharp and volume-backed, confirming distribution at higher levels rather than healthy consolidation. Recent candles show downside continuation with expanding volatility, keeping the immediate bias tilted to the downside.
Structurally, the stock has transitioned from an uptrend into a lower-high formation, with price now trading below key short-term averages. RSI around 38 reflects weak but not oversold momentum, indicating that downside pressure still has room to play out. MACD remains in bearish territory, while ADX suggests the trend is developing rather than exhausted. This combination favours continuation moves over mean-reversion bounces.
Volume behaviour is a key tell. The recent sell-off has come with very high participation (Vol-X ~9+), signalling active institutional repositioning rather than retail-driven noise. Importantly, selling has not yet shown capitulation characteristics, implying that weakness may persist until a stronger demand pocket is tested.
Key Support & Resistance Zones (Chart-Based)
Resistance Zones:
• 7270 (near-term supply / pullback cap)
• 7460.5 (intermediate resistance)
• 7580 (major overhead resistance, prior distribution zone)
• 7800–7900 (weak but broad HTF supply band)
Support Zones:
• 6960 (Support 1 – immediate reaction level)
• 6840.5 (Support 2 – intermediate demand)
• 6650 (Support 3 – major structural demand zone)
The 6960 level may offer a temporary pause or short-lived bounce, but it is not a trend-defining support. A sustained break below this zone increases downside probability toward 6840.5 and 6650, where stronger demand is likely to emerge. Any pullback toward 7270–7460 is expected to face supply unless accompanied by clear volume contraction and structural improvement.
From a broader risk perspective, POLYCAB is now in a sell-on-rise environment, with trend strength favouring bears and volatility elevated. Long exposure remains high-risk until price reclaims and sustains above the lower resistance band with improving momentum metrics.
Options activity shows increasing alignment with the mark-down structure. Near-ATM PUTs are referenced purely for positioning insight, with balanced-to-negative delta indicating sensitivity to further downside. Rising open interest alongside strong volume points to fresh bearish participation rather than short-covering, while implied volatility remains in a controlled mid-range, suggesting measured risk pricing.
Derivatives participation broadly confirms the cash-market breakdown, with liquidity concentrated near ATM levels and behaviour consistent with informed repositioning. Directional structures remain sensitive to time decay and consolidation, making continued downside acceptance and momentum follow-through essential for validation.
Final Outlook (Educational Snapshot):
Momentum: Weak | Trend: Developing| Risk: High | Volume: Very High
⚠️ STWP Legal Disclaimer
This document is strictly for educational and informational purposes. All examples, charts, levels, and option structures discussed are illustrative and are not intended as buy, sell, or hold recommendations. STWP does not provide investment advice, trading tips, signals, or personalized financial guidance of any kind, nor is it a SEBI-registered intermediary or research analyst. The analyses, illustrations, and risk–reward structures included here are generic in nature and based on publicly available data and observed market behaviour, which may change without notice. Financial markets involve significant risk; derivatives in particular carry the potential for substantial losses. Option premiums, implied volatility, open interest, delta, and other market variables can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably.
Readers are solely responsible for their trading decisions, capital management, and risk assessment. Before making any investment or trading decision, please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor. STWP, its representatives, and affiliates shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this material. Historical patterns or past market behaviour do not guarantee future outcomes, nor should any part of this document be interpreted as a promise of performance, accuracy, or returns.
Position Status: No active position in this instrument at the time of analysis.
Data Source: TradingView & NSE India.
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Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | December 17 – 18✅ 4-Hour Chart (H4) Trend Analysis
1️⃣ Overall Structure: High-Level Consolidation, Bullish Bias Intact
After completing a strong impulsive move within the 4270 → 4350 range, gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase.
Although price has not made new highs, higher lows are continuously forming, which confirms that the structure remains a bullish consolidation, not a reversal.
➡️ This is a post-rally digestion phase, not a trend reversal.
2️⃣ Moving Average Structure: Bullish Alignment Maintained
MA5 / MA10 / MA20 remain in a bullish alignment
Current pullbacks are mainly holding around MA10 – MA20 (4315–4325)
MA20 is still clearly sloping upward, indicating that the medium-term trend remains bullish
➡️ As long as price does not close decisively below MA20, the H4 bullish structure remains valid.
✅ 1-Hour Chart (H1) Trend Analysis
1️⃣ Short-Term Structure: Consolidation Within an Ascending Channel
Gold continues to consolidate above 4320, with limited pullbacks and no sustained high-volume selling.
Multiple tests of MA20 / MA30 have been quickly bought back, confirming strong demand below.
2️⃣ Moving Average Condition: Short-Term Reset in Progress
MA5 & MA10 crossing repeatedly → clear consolidation behavior
MA20 & MA60 remain upward sloping → overall trend still bullish
Current price is slightly above MA10, indicating the final stage of consolidation
3️⃣ Pattern Interpretation: Not a Top, More Like “Platform Accumulation”
Although strong selling pressure appeared around 4348–4350
Price failed to break below previous lows → no topping structure formed
Structure is more consistent with a high-level base / bullish flag formation
🔴 Resistance Levels
4340–4348 / 4355–4360 / 4380
🟢 Support Levels
4315–4320 / 4275–4270 / 4260
📌 Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Buy on Pullbacks (Primary Strategy)
📍 4315–4325 zone — scale in with light positions
🎯 Targets: 4345 / 4355
⛔ Stop-loss: Below 4305
⚠️ Logic: H4 bullish structure intact + H1 pullback supported by moving averages
🔰 Short at High Levels (Short-Term Only)
📍 4348–4355 area — light short positions upon rejection
🎯 Targets: 4325 / 4315
⛔ Stop-loss: Above 4370
⚠️ This is range trading only, not a trend-following short.
✅ Trend Summary
The 4-hour chart remains in a bullish consolidation phase, while the 1-hour chart is building momentum through sideways accumulation.
As long as price holds above 4310–4305, the preferred strategy remains:
👉 Buy on pullbacks, not chase breakouts.
Maruti (D): Cautiously Bullish - Low-Volume BreakoutTimeframe: Daily | Scale: Linear
The stock has confirmed a technical breakout from a 3-month rectangular consolidation. While the price action is positive, the low volume suggests a lack of aggressive institutional buying yet. The move is likely driven by year-end seasonality rather than raw momentum.
📈 1. The Chart Structure (Box Breakout)
> The "Box": Rectangle Pattern (or Box Consolidation).
> Resistance (Ceiling): 16,375 . This level capped upside in Oct and early Dec.
> Support (Floor): 15,249.
> The Breakout: Today's close above 16,375 is technically a breakout. It signals that buyers have finally absorbed the supply at this level.
> The ATH Hurdle: It is important to note that the All-Time High (ATH) of 16,600 is just ~1.4% away. A true "Blue Sky" run only starts above 16,600.
⚠️ 2. The Volume Warning (The Risk)
> The Divergence: "volume has been drying up," and today's volume ( 257K ) is relatively minor for a breakout candle.
- Rule of Thumb: A genuine breakout usually requires volume to be 1.5x to 2x the average.
- Risk: Low-volume breakouts often retrace (pull back) to test the breakout level. Do not be surprised if it dips back to 16,375 tomorrow.
🚀 3. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The price is likely drifting up due to Seasonality :
> January Price Hikes: Automakers, including Maruti, typically announce price hikes in late December (effective Jan 1st). The market often "front-runs" this news.
> Year-End Discounts: Aggressive Dec sales pushes often boost Q3 numbers, keeping sentiment positive despite low holiday volume.
📊 4. Technical Indicators
> RSI: Rising in all timeframes confirms the trend is healthy.
> EMA: The Positive Crossover on EMAs aligns with the breakout, validating the trend direction even if volume is lagging.
🎯 5. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The low volume dictates a "buy on confirmation" strategy.
> 🐂 Bullish Target:
- Confirmation Trigger: A daily close above 16,600 (ATH) would confirm volume is returning.
- Target: 17,505 .
> 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"):
- Immediate Support: 16,375 . The breakout level must hold on a closing basis.
- Stop Loss: A close below 16,193 (recent consolidation high) would confirm a "fakeout" and likely send the stock back to 15,250.
Conclusion
Technically, the box breakout is valid , but the volume is weak . The safest play is to wait for a close above 16,600 to confirm strength.
BDL - Breakdown With Reactive Oversold Conditions💹 Bharat Dynamics Ltd (NSE: BDL)
Sector: Defence | CMP: 1324.3
View: Bearish — Breakdown With Reactive Oversold Conditions
BDL has decisively broken below its recent consolidation structure near the 1350–1380 zone, confirming a bearish continuation phase rather than a routine pullback. The breakdown candle is wide-ranged and supported by above-average volume, signalling active supply dominance and institutional distribution. This move has pushed price into lower demand territory, invalidating earlier stabilization attempts and keeping the broader structure tilted to the downside.
From a structural standpoint, the stock remains firmly in a lower-high, lower-low sequence, with price trading well below its short- and medium-term moving averages. RSI has slipped to around 29.8, placing the stock in an oversold zone, but this should be read as exhaustion within a downtrend, not as a reversal signal. Stochastic is deeply oversold, while MACD remains negative with expanding bearish momentum, indicating sellers continue to control price discovery. ADX suggests the trend phase is still active, though volatility is beginning to rise as price approaches nearby demand.
Volume behaviour adds important context. While participation is above average (Vol-X ~1.06), it is not climactic, implying that selling pressure is orderly and controlled, not panic-driven. This keeps the door open for short-term reactive bounces, but does not yet support a structural trend change.
Key Support & Resistance Zones (Chart-Aligned)
Resistance Zones:
• 1348–1373 (broken base, now supply)
• 1387 (upper supply / rejection zone)
Support Zones:
• Support 1: 1309.93 (minor demand, reaction-level support)
• Support 2: 1295.57 (intermediate demand)
• Support 3: 1271.03 (next structural support)
Support 1 at 1309.93 is expected to act as a pause or bounce zone, not a reversal base. A sustained breakdown below this level increases downside probability toward 1295.57 and 1271.03, while any bounce into the 1348–1373 region is likely to face renewed supply unless accompanied by clear structural improvement.
On the derivatives side, the 1320 PUT is referenced purely for analytical insight. The option shows an LTP near 25 with a delta of about -0.45, offering balanced directional sensitivity. A sharp OI contraction of over 30 percent alongside a strong volume expansion highlights short-covering-led activity, not aggressive fresh bearish positioning. IV remains in a mid-range band, consistent with reactive price behaviour rather than sustained trend acceleration.
Overall, BDL remains in a bearish structural phase with weak momentum and elevated risk. Short-term oversold bounces are possible near Support 1, but the larger framework continues to favour sell-on-rise behaviour unless price reclaims resistance with strong follow-through and volume confirmation.
Final Outlook (Educational Snapshot):
Momentum: Weak | Trend: Down | Risk: Low| Volume: Normal
⚠️ STWP Legal Disclaimer
This document is strictly for educational and informational purposes. All examples, charts, levels, and option structures discussed are illustrative and are not intended as buy, sell, or hold recommendations. STWP does not provide investment advice, trading tips, signals, or personalized financial guidance of any kind, nor is it a SEBI-registered intermediary or research analyst. The analyses, illustrations, and risk–reward structures included here are generic in nature and based on publicly available data and observed market behaviour, which may change without notice. Financial markets involve significant risk; derivatives in particular carry the potential for substantial losses. Option premiums, implied volatility, open interest, delta, and other market variables can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably.
Readers are solely responsible for their trading decisions, capital management, and risk assessment. Before making any investment or trading decision, please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor. STWP, its representatives, and affiliates shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this material. Historical patterns or past market behaviour do not guarantee future outcomes, nor should any part of this document be interpreted as a promise of performance, accuracy, or returns.
Position Status: No active position in this instrument at the time of analysis.
Data Source: TradingView & NSE India.
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✍️ Share your thoughts or questions in the comments
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NVIDIA: Double Bottom Flat at Support — Bounce Setup in PlayNVIDIA is currently testing a well-defined support zone near the prior lows, where price action is starting to compress rather than accelerate lower. The structure forming at this level resembles a double-bottom flat , suggesting that selling pressure is gradually losing momentum.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the ongoing decline fits well as the final leg of a corrective phase. As long as this support zone holds, the odds favor the development of a Wave C move higher , which would mark a relief rally within the broader structure. The repeated defense of this level strengthens the case for a near-term bounce rather than an immediate breakdown.
That said, this is a decision zone . A clean hold keeps the upside scenario alive, while a decisive break below support would invalidate the flat structure and open the door for deeper downside. Until then, patience is key — let price confirm before committing.
Key Level to Watch: ~170
Above it: bounce potential
Below it: structure fails
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Wheat Analysis – Opportunity DevelopingHi Everyone,
Today, an interesting setup is forming on the wheat market.
On the daily timeframe, price is making a third pullback on the bearish trendline, following two previous retests clearly visible on the chart.
Historically, a third pullback on this type of structure significantly increases the probability of a bearish reversal.
📉 Primary scenario: bearish movement expected in the coming days
🎯 Target price: 500
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in INDIACEM
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Resistance Breakout in HINDZINC
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Cup & Handle Breakout in INFOBEAN
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Sensex - Expiry day analysis Dec 17The price faced resistance from the 84900 zone and fall towards the support at the 84500 zone. It broke 84500, and the bulls came to push the price up. This movement has formed a falling wedge pattern. The pattern is bullish, but the opening strength will decide the trend direction.
The daily chart clearly shows how the price is facing resistance from the channel and is still bearish.
If the price opens flat, buy above 84540 with the stop loss of 84400 for the targets 84660, 84780, 84960, 85080 and 85200.
84900, 85000 can act as resistance. If the price opens gap up at resistance levels and shows bearish strength, the falling wedge pattern won't work.
If the price opens below 84500 and shows bearish strength, sell below 84240 with the stop loss of 84400 for the targets 84100, 83960, 83800 and 83660.
Always analyse the market before taking any trade.
Nifty 50 Price Structure Analysis [18/12/2025: Thursday]Top-Down Nifty 50 Price Structure Analysis for 18th of December 2025. The day is Thursday.
(1) Monthly Time Frame:
Red marubozu plus piercing candle feature is observed. No bullish trade till the price starts to trade above 26000. Major support 25700. The view is indecision as trend (bullish or bearish) clarity is missing.
(2) Weekly Time Frame:
The trend for the past 3 weeks is down. But there is no clear trend. The market structure is broken. It is a confusing market. A major resistance zone is created by 3 levels: 26000, 25950, and 25900. Any up move should be doubted. Minor support is 25800. Major support is 25700. The view is indecision to bearish.
(3) Daily Time Frame:
Very confusing market. Market structure is formed in a lower lows and lower highs structure. There is bearish sentiment in the market. But very tough to build and trade on a directional view. Take no bullish trade unless the price starts to trade above the level 26000. Major support is 25700. The view is indecision to bearish.
(4) 30-Minute Time Frame:
The pennant pattern is still intact. It is the sign of major range-bound consolidation. Price staying inside the pennant means it's a no-trading scenario. We have to wait for either side to break down or break out. Since, head and shoulder (H&S) hypothesis is still intact, there is a higher probability of breakdown from the penant. However, there is an unfilled gap at level 26000. Price might go up to fill the gap and trap bulls. Any up move should be doubted. If level 25750 is decisively broken, then bearishness will deepen. The view is bearish.
Bullish Scenario Set-Up:
(i) Price sustains above the opening price.
(ii) Price breaks out of the pennant.
(iii) Price breaks all the resistances - 25900, 25950, 26000, and fills the pending gap.
(iv) Price develops a higher highs and lower lows structure above level 26000 for at least 1 day.
(v) There is a lower probability of a bullish scenario.
Bearish Scenario Set-Up:
(i) Price sustains below the opening price.
(ii) Price breaks down the pennant.
(iii) Price sustains below the level 25750 with a promise of breaking through the level 25700.
(iv) There is a higher probability of a bearish scenario.
No Trading Zone (NTZ): (26000 - 25750)
Events: SENSEX weekly expiry. No other high-impact event.
Summary of the Trading Plan (Hypothesis and Insights):
(i) Market sentiment is bearish until the price starts to trade above the level 26000. Every up move should be doubted. For a bullish trade, the price must form a strong bullish candle for at least 1 day above the level 26000.
(ii) Price staying with the pennant is a sign of major range-bound consolidation. Wait for either a breakout or a breakdown.
(iii) For a bearish trade, the price must break down the pennant. Next price must decisively trade below level 25750 with a promise of breaking down level 25700.
(iv) Bearish conviction is high as the head and shoulder (H&S) hypothesis is still active. Also, a downward move is the path of least resistance.
(v) No Trading Zone (NTZ): (26000 - 25750).
(vi) Trade only if either a bullish or bearish set-up is activated. If not, then don't trade. Remember, not trading is an extension of trading activity. Protect your resource.
NOTE:
"Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is God. Anything can happen in the markets. Therefore, trade what you see, not what you believe."
Happy Trading!
Hindalco looking bewildered. Plan to trade either side.Hindalco is forming a double top formation on the weekly charts, showing some weakness in the stock as the market is more time in recoverying the fall of one week.
The stock has been in a good up trend and has reached 850 levels forming a base around 560-600 level zone i.e. Approx 30-35% return in 9 months.
Since June 2022, Hindalco has not taken out the previous low and recent gave the break out of the previous ATH and retested it.
Major trend for the stock is still bullish and there is a probability of continuing the same if the recent is taken out with good volumes, support the bullishness of the stock.
Bullish Scenario (A good HLHH formation is there in the stock).
Enter above 870 levels
Stop loss :- 825 (5%)
Target :- 1012 (16%)
R:R = 1:3
Buying a stock above 870 gives a bullish signal and can captured with proper SL and target.
Bearish Scenario (A double top pattern, bearish RSI divergence and Weekly 20 EMA break down).
Entry below 830 levels
Stop Loss :- 866 (4%)
Target :- 770 (7%)
R:R = 1:1.75
The targets can be trailed upto the levels of 740 levels while trailing the SL logically.
Wait for the stock to form some setup for the either side momentum and trade in the direction of the market.
KIRLOSENG Price ActionKirloskar Oil Engines Limited has recently shown a strong short-term uptrend, supported by positive quarterly earnings announced in September 2025. The stock price moved up significantly, hitting an 11-month high on November 12, 2025, driven by a notable jump in quarterly profits. Despite some past corrections and mixed signals over recent months, the near-term momentum is upward, backed by solid revenue and profit growth.
Volatility remains moderate, and the stock is trading comfortably above key moving averages, indicating strength. However, while there are several positive technical and fundamental signals, some caution is warranted due to occasional volume spikes on price declines and resistance levels near recent highs.
Overall, Kirloskar Oil Engines can be viewed as holding an accumulation or hold status at present, with the potential for further upside if the positive earnings momentum continues and key support levels hold firm. It's advisable to monitor the stock closely over the next few weeks for confirmation of sustained strength before considering new buying positions.
This balanced outlook reflects a positive but cautious stance, awaiting clearer signals to shift decisively to a buy recommendation.






















