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Real Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in TradingReal Success Rates of the Rising Wedge in Trading Introduction The rising wedge, also known as the "rising wedge" in English, is a chart pattern that has a remarkable success rate in trading. This analysis details its performance, reliability and complementary indicators to optimize its use. Success Rate and Performance -Key Statistics Overall success rate: 81% in bull markets Average potential profit: 38% in an existing uptrend -Breakout Direction Bearish: 60% of cases Bullish: 40% of cases Contextual Reliability Bull market: 81% success, average gain of 38% After a downtrend: 51% success, average decline of 9% Important Considerations The rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Reliability increases with the duration of the pattern formation. Confirmation of the breakout by other indicators, especially volume, is crucial. Complementary Indicators -Volume Gradual decrease during formation Significant increase during breakout -Oscillators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought/oversold conditions Stochastics: Detects price/indicator divergences -Moving Averages Crossovers: Signal trend changes -Dynamic Support/Resistance: Confirm the validity of the wedge -Momentum Indicators MACD: Identifies price/indicator divergences Momentum: Assesses the exhaustion of the trend -Other Elements Fibonacci Levels: Identify potential support/resistance Japanese Candlestick Analysis: Provides indications of reversals Conclusion The rising wedge is a powerful tool for traders, offering a high success rate and significant profit potential. The combined use of complementary indicators increases the reliability of the signal and improves the accuracy of trading decisions. It is essential to look for a convergence of signals from multiple sources to minimize false signals and optimize trading performance. _______________________________________________ Here are the best times to enter a trade after a rising wedge, in a professional manner: -The confirmed breakout Wait for the candle to close below the support line of the wedge. Look for a significant increase in volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. -The retest Look for a pullback on the broken support line, which has become resistance. Enter when the price rebounds downward on this new resistance, confirming the downtrend. -The post-breakout consolidation Identify the formation of a flag or pennant after the initial breakout. Enter when this mini-formation breaks in the direction of the main downtrend. -The confirmed divergences Spot bearish divergences on oscillators such as the RSI or the MACD. Enter when price confirms divergence by breaking a nearby support. -Timing with Japanese Candlesticks Identify bearish formations such as the Evening Star, Bearish Harami, or Dark Cloud. Enter as soon as the next candle confirms the bearish pattern. -Important Considerations Always place a stop-loss to manage risk effectively. Be patient and wait for the setup to be confirmed before entering the trade Check the trend on higher timeframes to ensure the consistency of the trade. Integrate the analysis of the rising wedge with other technical indicators to improve the quality of decisions. By following these recommendations, traders can optimize their entries on rising wedges while minimizing the risk of false signals.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout. The symmetrical triangle is an important chart pattern in technical analysis, deserving special attention from professional traders. This formation is characterized by a convergence of prices between two trendlines, one descending and the other ascending, creating a consolidation zone where indecision between buyers and sellers is palpable. Statistical Analysis Empirical data reveals that the success rate of the symmetrical triangle for a trend continuation is approximately 54%. This percentage, although higher than 50%, underlines the importance of a cautious approach and rigorous risk management in using this pattern. Breakout Point The breakout of the symmetrical triangle usually occurs when the price has traveled approximately 75% of the distance to the apex. This point is crucial for traders, as it often represents the moment when volatility increases and a new trend can be established. Risks and False Exits It is essential to note that the symmetrical triangle has a relatively high rate of false exits. Statistics indicate that approximately 13% of cases in a bear market can result in a false exit to the bottom. This phenomenon underlines the need for additional confirmation before entering a position. Strategy of use To effectively exploit the symmetrical triangle, professional traders must: -Identify the formation accurately. -Wait for the breakout near the point of convergence of the trendlines. -Confirm the breakout with other technical indicators or an increase in volume. -Put in place strict risk management to protect against false exits. In conclusion, the symmetrical triangle, although being a valuable tool in the trader's arsenal, requires a methodical approach and a thorough understanding of its characteristics to be used effectively in a trading strategy.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading. When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections. Meaning of the 45 degree line: The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market. Main characteristics -Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart. -Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time. -Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction. Use in Technical Analysis Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways: -Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong. -Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend. -Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line. -Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis. Integration with other tools The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy. In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates. Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!! Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading: - The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal. - According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with approximately 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit. - More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken. - A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases. - However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%. -The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the break of the neckline, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary. -It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly. In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses. __________________________________________________________________ Head and Shoulders: Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading: -The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways: - Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading. - In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern. - It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal. - The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary. - Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly. In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses. _____________________________________________________________________________ NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
The “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in tradingThe “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in trading, using trendlines to predict price movements. Highlights 📈 Powerful Technique: The Fan Principle is formidable in technical analysis. 📉 Identifying Points: Drawing trendlines from three key points. 🔴 Trading Signals: Buy or sell signals can be identified depending on the pattern. 📊 Practical Examples: Analyzing price movements on charts to illustrate the technique. 💰 Profit Opportunities: Strategies can result in significant gains, up to 22%. 🛑 Risk Management: Importance of placing stop-losses to protect investments. 🔍 Additional Resources: Detailed information and charts will be shared to deepen understanding. Key Insights 📈 Technique Effectiveness: The Fan Principle helps identify clear trends using reference points, making the strategy both simple and effective. 📉 Importance of Confirmation: Validating trendlines with a third point builds confidence in trading signals, increasing the chances of success. 🔴 Warning Signals: Sell or buy signals, as shown in the video, can lead to strategic decisions based on historical analysis. 📊 Visual Analysis: Visualizing data on charts helps understand market movements, which is essential for technical analysis. 💰 Profit Potential: Trades based on the Fan Principle can provide significant profit opportunities, highlighting its effectiveness. 🛑 Protection Strategies: Placing stop-losses above resistance points is crucial to limit losses in the event of adverse market movements. 🔍 Access to resources: The information shared in the description and on other platforms offers ways to deepen the understanding of the technique and improve trading skills. __________________________________________________________________ The fan principle in trading is a strategy that consists of opening several positions on the same asset at different price levels. Here are the main aspects of this approach: How it works The idea is to open several positions (or "lots") on the same financial asset at different price levels, thus forming a "fan" of positions. These positions are opened at points considered as potential market reversals. The objective is to let these positions unfold like a fan or to close them gradually according to the evolution of the market. Advantages Risk diversification: By entering the market at different levels, the trader reduces the impact of a single bad entry. Movement capture: This approach allows to take advantage of different phases of a price movement. Flexibility: The trader can adjust his strategy by closing some positions while keeping others open. Complementary Tools The fan principle can be combined with other technical analysis tools to improve its effectiveness: Fibonacci Fan: This tool automatically draws trendlines at key levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) that can serve as entry points for fan positions. Gann Angles: These lines, drawn at different angles (82.5°, 75°, 71.25°, etc.), can also help identify potential levels to open positions. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Some traders combine the fan principle with the RSI to confirm entry points. Important Considerations This strategy requires good risk management, as it involves opening multiple positions. It is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit levels for each position in the range. Using this approach requires a thorough understanding of the market and significant trading experience.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
3
NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning!NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning! Hello everyone The Wolf of Zurich has detected a possible "head and shoulder" on Nvidia, which would bring the price down to around $42. I have also drawn a trend line that you absolutely must watch! The level to watch is around $98-98 Here, watch your Fibonacci levels as well as your exponential mobile means Have a nice day everyone Some information to know about Nvidia: Nvidia, the world leader in graphics chips and AI, is enjoying a flourishing situation despite a recent drop in its stock price. Here is a summary of its current situation: -Dominant position in the AI ​​market Nvidia occupies a quasi-monopolistic position in the field of chips for artificial intelligence. Its GPUs, especially the H100 series, are essential for the development of cutting-edge AI systems and are selling at high prices around the world. -Stock market performance Despite a recent 9.53% drop in its share price, Nvidia has posted an impressive 120% increase since the beginning of the year and nearly 400% over 3 years. This one-off drop does not seem to worry analysts, who still see significant growth potential. -Technological innovations Nvidia recently presented its new Blackwell GPU architecture, with the B200 and GB200 processors. These chips promise performance multiplied by 5 compared to the previous generation in the field of AI. The company also reassured investors by announcing that it had resolved the production problems initially encountered. -Future Outlook With its dominance in AI training chips and its comprehensive software ecosystem, Nvidia appears well positioned for continued growth. The company continues to innovate and strengthen its position in the AI ​​market, which suggests a positive outlook for the future.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected. The price could go down to the PRZ zone indicated on the right chart: 512 to start, then 388 if the Double top plays its role. This will therefore be a very interesting entry point for investors. Below: Some information about LVMH. LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) is today the world leader in luxury and one of the largest French companies. Here’s a look at where LVMH stands today: Recent Financial Performance LVMH recently announced its third-quarter 2023 results, which missed analysts’ expectations This announcement caused a significant drop in the stock price, which is down more than 20% from its record highs Market Position Despite these mixed results, LVMH remains the world’s largest luxury company, with a portfolio of iconic brands including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Givenchy, Kenzo, Moët & Chandon and many others Structure and Values LVMH is a family-owned group founded in 1987. Its primary mission is to ensure the long-term development of each of its houses, while preserving their identity and autonomy. The group emphasizes creativity, innovation and excellence in all its products and services. Corporate Strategy LVMH's strategy is based on the vertical integration of its value chain, from raw material sourcing to selective distribution. This approach aims to ensure the excellence and sustainability of its products. Social and Environmental Responsibility LVMH is increasingly committed to ethical, social and environmental initiatives. The group places emphasis on adopting and promoting honest behavior in all its actions and relationships. Future Outlook Despite recent challenges, LVMH remains a solid company with long-term growth potential. , like any company in the luxury sector, it is sensitive to global economic fluctuations and changes in consumer habits.
EURONEXT:MC
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
WALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow JonesWALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow Jones Be careful with Walmart as you can see cocoa and st microelectronic also rose to very very high historical levels and look at the correction that we had immediately after at least 40% drop This action can have a significant impact on the Dow Jones A strong correction could lower the DJIA index I alert you on this I alert you especially on the notion of "stock market cycle" and "seasonality" Walmart is overbought you just have to look at your technical indicators RSI, ROC, Stochastic, exponential moving average, Ichimoku, Fibonacci retracement. We could go much much lower so be careful this action is overbought Monitor your above-mentioned indicators.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
SP500 : Bearish : Cycles pattern : Watch out!Look carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?! In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months; In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level: 1-Jackson Hole Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs. 2-NVIDIA long awaited: Result: The action disappointed and went down Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%. Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others... Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up. Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price! I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
SP:SPXShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
TONCOIN: Possible "Head-Shoulders" under construction?!TONCOIN: Possible "Head-Shoulders" under construction?! Detection of a possible chart pattern "Head-Shoulder" = "SUMMER" in Daily" Monitor the " Nech line", and the Fibonacci and ICHIMOKU levels, as well as the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages on higher time units if necessary. The downside targets are indicated on the chart. We could return to the levels before the "Bull run"!! Following the arrest of Pavel Durov, CEO of the company "Telegram Messenger", this news could accelerate the downward movement sharply! Be careful!!
Short
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
BITCOIN: Double top possible + NAVARRO 200 : Watch out!! BITCOIN: Double top possible: Watch out for 48,000 + NAVARRO 2000 bullish = 2 opposing patterns. The Wolf of Zurich detected a possible double top on bitcoin As expected, the 56,400 was reached perfectly thanks to my analysis. The next levels are: On the decline : 56,425 (again) 48,000 40,770 On the rise: NAVAROO 200 bullish detected, and the price could reach $72,000 then $80,000 In addition, Be careful because there is a bullish divergence with the ROC!! To watch the EMA 50 and 200, and the ICHIMOKU and Fibonacci levels
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich