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Hang Seng Index (HSI) 's Price Action vis-à-vis Major PivotsHSI seems to have broken out of last year's high (Oct 2024) and Jan 2023 high, and retested it too. The index is about 67% from Jan 2024 low. The next major pivot is Feb 2021 High, after that Oct 2007 High and then Jan 2018 High (all are marked on chart). The price seems to be gaining momentum and moving parabolically, as marked on chart. It seems price will move higher over months, of course there would be retracements. As always it won't be as predictable as I have hypothesized above. Nevertheless at this juncture price action is positive and depending upon price action further into the months the hypothesis will succeed or fail. Trade Safe
TVC:HSILong
by HeLLBoY_DEagle
AUDUSD stays on the way to 0.6850 hurdle despite downbeat ChinaAUDUSD prints mild losses while snapping a four-day winning streak and paring the previous gains from a five-week uptrend after China reported downbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales early Monday. Even so, the Aussie pair defends last week’s upside break of a four-month-old ascending resistance line, now immediate support at 0.6750. The RSI (14) line’s retreat from overbought territory suggests the quote’s additional weakness, but the bullish MACD signals can join the trend line breakout to keep buyers hopeful past 0.6750. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s daily closing beneath 0.6750 will direct bears toward May’s peak of 0.6714. Following that, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-October downside, near 0.6660, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6605 to act as the final defense of the buyers. On the contrary, the AUDUSD buyers keep the reins beyond 0.6750 and can aim for the 0.6800 threshold for the short term. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from June 2023, close to 0.6850, quickly followed by the late 2023 high of 0.6870, appears tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6870, the odds of witnessing a run-up beyond the mid-2023 peak of 0.6900 will be certain, which in turn highlights the 0.7000 psychological magnet for the bulls. Overall, AUDUSD buyers can ignore the latest retreat unless the quote stays beyond 0.6750.
by MTradingGlobal
RBNZ’s dovish halt, downbeat China CPI weigh on NZDUSD Early Wednesday, NZDUSD prints the biggest daily fall in a fortnight on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish halt, as well as a softer print of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. That said, the RBNZ matched market expectations for holding the benchmark rate unchanged but showed readiness to welcome easy monetary policy if inflation slows further. On the other hand, China's CPI dropped to -0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY in June versus -0.1% and 0.4% market expectations, from -0.1% and 0.3% in that order. With this, NZDUSD drops more than 0.50% on a day as sellers attack the 200-SMA support of 0.6076. Adjacent to that is strong technical support comprising the 100-SMA and an 11-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6065 by the press time. In a case where the Kiwi pair prints a daily closing beneath 0.6065, a slew of peaks and troughs surrounding 0.6040-35 will test the sellers before directing them to the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an impending bull cross on the MACD and downbeat RSI joins the key supports to signal the NZDUSD pair’s corrective bounce, which in turn highlights a three-week-long horizontal resistance area near 0.6150-55. Should the Kiwi pair manage to cross the immediate upside hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the quote’s fall from December 2023 to April 2024, near 0.6175, will precede a six-month-old horizontal resistance zone around 0.6215-22 to act as the final defenses of the bears. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the recovery remains doubtful below 0.6222.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD probes month-long bearish channel on China’s returnMarket sentiment improved early Monday as China returned to trading after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. With this, AUDUSD justifies its role as a risk barometer and cheers optimism at the biggest customer, namely China, by challenging a one-month-old bearish trend. However, the road towards the north appears long and bumpy before convincing the Aussie bulls. That said, the stated falling channel’s top line, close to 0.6555, guards the immediate run-up of the pair ahead of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, between 0.6620 and 0.6640, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before taking control. On the contrary, the AUDUSD pairs’ retreat will aim for the 0.6500 round figure before convincing the bears to target the monthly low of near 0.6440. It’s worth noting, however, that the bottom line of a one-month-long descending trend channel, close to 0.6430 at the latest, will restrict further downside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.6430, a slew of support levels around 0.6400, 0.6340 and 0.6320 will try pushing back the bearish moves. However, the pair’s downside past 0.6320 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the previous yearly low surrounding 0.627. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to extend the latest rebound as upbeat sentiment joins firmer MACD and RSI signals. However, the room towards the north appears limited and the upside is also dependent on the RBA and FOMC Minutes.
by MTradingGlobal
Brent Oil buyers need validation from $92.50Brent oil buyers take a breather after posting the biggest daily jump in six months as the overbought RSI (14) line prods the energy bulls below a three-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding $92.50. However, a clear upside break of the 200-SMA and bullish MACD signals suggest further upside of the black gold price. Hence, the quote is likely to cross the immediate hurdle surrounding $92.50, which in turn will allow bulls to challenge the monthly high of around $94.30. In that case, September’s peak of near $96.50 and the $100.00 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, Brent Oil’s pullback remains elusive beyond the 200-SMA support of $90.80, quickly followed by the $90.00 threshold. Following that, a broad horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early September, close to $89.00-50, will challenge the energy sellers. Should the Oil bears manage to conquer the $89.00 support, its fall to the previous weekly low of $85.76 becomes imminent. However, the monthly low of $84.17 and the previous monthly trough surrounding $82.00 will test the south-run afterward. Overall, Brent Oil price stays on the way to refreshing the monthly high unless it breaks the $89.00 support.
VELOCITY:BRENT
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls challenge five-week-old descending triangleStrong China data and a clear upside break of the 10-day SMA allow AUDUSD buyers to prod the resistance line of a five-week-old descending triangle on early Friday. Adding credence to the Aussie pair’s upside bias is the upward-sloping RSI (14) line, not overbought, and the bullish MACD signals. With this, the risk-barometer pair is likely to cross the immediate hurdle surrounding 0.6460, which in turn will open the door for the pair’s run-up toward the 50-day SMA level of around 0.6560. It’s worth noting that the 0.6500 round figure and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6550, act as extra upside filters to watch during the quote’s further upside. In a case where the pair price remains firmer past the 50-DMA, the lows marked in late June and early July around 0.6600 will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s failure to provide a daily closing beyond 0.6560 could drag it back to the 10-day SMA level of surrounding 0.6415. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio and the stated triangle’s bottom line, respectively around 0.6380 and 0.6355, will test the Aussie pair sellers afterward. Should the quote stay weak past 0.6355, the November 2022 low of around 0.6270 and the previously yearly bottom of around 0.6170 will lure the sellers. To sum up, the AUDUSD pair is likely to witness additional recovery but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears flex muscles on RBA DayAUDUSD bulls struggle to hold the forte after posting the first weekly gain in seven on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision Day. That said, the Aussie pair trades within a three-week-old bearish triangle, staying below the convergence of the 100-SMA and 50-SMA surrounding 0.6450 on the key day. It’s worth noting that the steady RSI and bearish MACD signals lure the sellers to sneak in and break the stated bearish triangle’s bottom line, close to 0.6420 at the latest. In a case where the risk-barometer pair remains weak past 0.6420, it confirms the bearish chart pattern and can well refresh the yearly low, currently the August 13 bottom of around 0.6360. On the other hand, an upside clearance of the previously stated triangle’s top line, near 0.6530, could unleash the AUDUSD buyers. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-July around 0.6600 will precede a five-week-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 0.6625 to test the upside momentum. In a case where the Aussie pair buyers keep the reins, backed by the hawkish RBA actions or signals, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward July’s peak of around 0.6900 can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD bulls run out of steam but the bears need approval from the RBA and the triangle breakdown.
by MTradingGlobal
23-week-old support line challenges AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD bears ran out of steam during the sixth week of the downtrend by positing the slimmest losses since mid-July. Even so, the Aussie pair faded bounce off a downward-sloping support line from early March, not to forget staying beneath a six-week-long descending resistance line. It’s worth noting that the nearly oversold RSI and the impending bull cross on the MACD challenge the pair sellers, suggesting another bounce off the stated multi-week-old support line, close to 0.6450 by the press time. In a case where the bears manage to conquer the 0.6450 support, last November’s bottom of around 0.6270 will be in the spotlight. Following that, the previous yearly low of near 0.6170 could lure the offers. On the flip side, a corrective bounce needs validation from the downward-sloping resistance line from mid-July, close to 0.6435 at the latest. Also acting as the short-term upside AUDUSD hurdle is the 21-DMA of around 0.6505. Should the Aussie bulls manage to keep the reins past 0.6505, the lows marked in late June and early July around 0.6600 will give the final fight to the bulls before giving them control. It should be observed that the double tops marked in June and July surrounding 0.6900 appear a tough nut to crack for the buyers afterward. Overall, AUDUSD remains bearish but the downside room appears limited, which in turn suggests a corrective bounce before the fresh leg towards the south.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD downside hinges on 0.6470 breakdown and Aussie/US dataA clear downside break of the 10-month-old rising support line teases the AUDUSD bears as China releases mixed inflation data from July. Even so, an ascending trend line from early November 2022, close to 0.6470, could join the nearly oversold RSI to challenge the Aussie bears. Following that, a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6375, may act as the final defense of the bulls before the late 2022 low of 0.6170 gains attention. Meanwhile, AUDUSD needs to provide a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line, near 0.6540 at the latest, to recall buyers. Following that, a three-week-old falling resistance line, around 0.6650, could check the upside momentum ahead of targeting May’s peak of around 0.6820. It’s worth noting, however, that the double tops surrounding 0.6900 become the key hurdle to the north for the pair buyers to crack for conviction. Overall, AUDUSD slips into the bear’s radar but the road towards the south is long. That said, Thursday’s Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for August and the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be crucial for the pair traders to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price pullback remains unimpressive beyond $1,900Gold price reverses the previous week’s retreat from an eight-week-old descending resistance line, grinding higher past the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the nearly overbought RSI (14) suggests another pullback from the aforementioned immediate resistance line, near $1,962 at the latest. With this, the XAUUSD is likely to break the immediate support surrounding $1,935, comprising the 100-EMA. However, the 200-EMA, close to $1,900 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the metal bears to break before retaking control. In a case where the price remains bearish below the $1,900 mark, the odds of witnessing a quick slump toward the early March high of around $1,858 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond the aforementioned descending resistance line, close to $1,962, could renew the Gold Price upside towards challenging the previous monthly high of around $1,983. Following that, the $2,000 round figure and April’s peak of around $2,048 will be in the spotlight before directing the XAUUSD bulls toward the yearly high of near $2,067. Overall, multiple hurdles toward the north and the latest retreat from the key resistance line teases the Gold sellers but crucial EMAs stand tall to challenge the commodity bears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD retreats from 0.6700 as China inflation easesAUDUSD consolidates the first weekly gain in three as softer inflation numbers from the biggest customers, namely China, drag the quote from a fortnight-old falling resistance line, around the 0.6700 round figure. The pullback move also retreats as the RSI eases from the overbought territory, which in turn suggests the Aussie pair’s further weakness towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-Jun upside, near 0.6630. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since June 01, close to 0.6585-95, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. In a case where the sellers dominate past 0.6585, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the late May swing low of around 0.6458 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the aforementioned two-week-long descending resistance line around 0.6700 guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair ahead of the 100-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the late June high of near 0.6720 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6800 can challenge the risk-barometer pair’s upside before directing the bulls toward the previous monthly high of around 0.6900. Overall, AUDUSD’s previous weekly gain appears a one-off affair unless the US inflation signals keep softening.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers must break $1,895 to show dominance on NFP dayWith a clear U-turn from the 100-EMA, Gold price again hits the key support around $1,895 comprising the 200-EMA and an upward-sloping trend line from late November 2022. That said, bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI join the market’s risk-off mood to offer extra incentives for the XAUUSD bears. With this, the Gold sellers are more likely to take out the $1,895 support, which in turn could direct the prices toward the early March swing high of around $1,858. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to May 2023 upside, near $1,845, will precede the yearly low marked in February around $1,805 and the $1,800 round figure to limit the metal’s further downside. On the contrary, a successful daily closing beyond the 100-EMA level of around $1,935 needs support from the downbeat US jobs report to recall the Gold buyers. In that case, February’s peak of around $1,960 and the previous monthly high surrounding $1,983 could check the XAUUSD bulls before allowing them to visit the $2,000 psychological magnet. It’s worth noting that the bullion remains on the front foot once it closes beyond the $2,000 mark, which in turn helps it challenge the tops marked in April and the multi-year high registered in May, respectively near $2,050 and $2,070. Overall, the Gold price is all set to break the key support and recall the bears but the short positions should be taken with care ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD teases sellers on breaking short-term bullish channelAUDUSD prods three-week uptrend after RBA Minutes and PBOC rate cut impresses bearish ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony. Also favoring the odds of a pullback in the Aussie pair is the nearly overbought RSI and concerns about hearing hawkish words from Fed Chair Powell. However, a clear downside break of a three-week-long rising trend channel becomes necessary to convince the pair bears. In doing so, a daily close below the stated channel’s bottom line, near 0.6850, becomes necessary to convince sellers. Even so, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of around 0.6760 acts as the last defense of the bulls. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD upside needs to refresh the latest monthly peak of around 0.0.6900 to convince short-term buyers. However, the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6940, will precede the 0.7000 psychological magnet to challenge the pair’s further upside. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.7000, the mid-February around of around 0.7030 and the yearly high of 0.7157 will be in the spotlight. Overall, AUDUSD bulls appear running out of steam but the bears have a long way to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD signals fresh 2023 low despite recent reboundBe it a clear rejection of a one-month-old bullish channel or sustained trading below the key SMAs, not to forget dovish RBA, AUDUSD has it all to convince bears. That said, the Aussie pair currently recovers towards the stated channel’s top line around 0.6685. Even if the quote crosses the stated upside hurdle, a convergence of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, close to 0.6700, appears a tough nut to crack for the counter-trend traders. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6700, the previous monthly high of near 0.6785 and the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 0.6820, can act as the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, the 0.6600 round figure lures AUD/USD bears, a break of which could challenge the YTD low surrounding 0.6560. It’s worth noting that the RSI is near the oversold territory and hence suggests limited downside room before portraying the pair’s corrective bounce. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6560 won’t hesitate to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of its mid-February to early April moves, near the 0.6500 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is well-set on the bear’s radar for marking further downside unless any fundamental surprises.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays pressured towards 0.6980-75 support confluenceDespite the latest pause, AUDUSD extends the week-start pullback from a nine-month high as the economic calendar starts spreading key releases. In doing so, the Aussie pair stays inside the monthly bullish channel. That said, the RSI retreat from overbought territory joins the downbeat MACD signals to also tease bears. Even so, a convergence of the stated channel support line and the 100-SMA highlights the 0.6980-75 zone as the key for the bear’s entry. Following that, a seven-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6880 could challenge the quote’s further downside before placing the bear in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, multiple highs marked around 0.7130 and the recent peak surrounding 0.7150 could challenge AUDUSD bulls. Also acting as an immediate upside hurdle is the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line, close to 0.7170 at the latest. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.7170, the 0.7200 round figure and May 2022 high surrounding 0.7285 could gain the buyer’s attention. Overall, AUDUSD slips from the bull’s radar but the bears need confirmation before taking control.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD upside appears limited as the key week beginsBe it New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report or China’s return after Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays, not to forget the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, NZDUSD has an interesting week ahead. However, the bulls appear running out of steam after a four-week winning streak. The reason could be linked to the overbought RSI and multiple attempts to cross the upward-sloping resistance line from early June, close to 0.6525 by the press time. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6525 hurdle, a nine-month-old horizontal resistance near 0.6570 will be crucial as a break of which opens the door for the north-run towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-October downturn, around 0.6700. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair around 0.6450. Following that, an ascending support line from early November, close to 0.6390, could act as the last defense for the Kiwi pair buyers. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past 0.6390 could make it vulnerable to testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-DMA, respectively near 0.6270 and 0.6190. Overall, NZDUSD has bright opportunities to take entries but it all depends upon fundamental data/events and hence a cautious move is advisable.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls are all set to visit the 0.7000 thresholdOn Friday, AUDUSD offered the first daily closing beyond the 200-DMA, as well as a downward-sloping trend line from June, despite an upbeat US jobs report. The upside momentum recently crossed multiple hurdles surrounding the 0.6900 threshold, as well as the tops marked during early September 2022 near 0.6915, which in turn suggests the pair’s run-up towards the 0.7000 psychological magnet. In a case where the Aussie bulls keep the reins past 0.7000, a run-up towards the August 2022 peak around 0.7135 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, sellers need to wait for a clear downside break of the resistance-turned-support line from June, close to 0.6830 at the latest. Even so, a two-month-old ascending support line, near 0.6730, could probe the AUDUSD bears before giving them control. In a case where the Aussie pair remains weak past 0.6730, the lows marked during December and the mid-November, close to 0.6630 and 0.6585 in that order, should lure the sellers. Overall, AUDUSD is ready for further upside towards the 0.7000 psychological magnet.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD teases bears amid China-inspired risk aversionAfter closing a positive week on the red side, AUDUSD remains on the bear’s radar as it broke a short-term symmetrical triangle, as well as the 50-SMA. However, the bears need a clear downside break of the previous week’s bottom surrounding 0.6580 to keep the reins. In that case, the downward trajectory could aim for the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.6475. During the fall, the 0.6500 round figure may act as intermediate halts. Alternatively, a convergence of the previous support line and the 50-SMA, around 0.6700, holds the key to the buyer’s entry. Following that, a downward-sloping trend line from November 15, close to 0.6770 could challenge the upside momentum. In a case where the AUDUSD pair remains firmer past 0.6770, the monthly high and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of 10-21 November moves, respectively around 0.6800 and 0.6840 will be in focus. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain weaker unless rising back beyond 0.6770.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD rebound appears interesting if it stays beyond 0.6960AUDUSD managed to rebound from a two-year low on Friday, snapping a six-day downtrend and portraying a falling wedge bullish chart pattern. However, downbeat data from China and fresh fears of covid resurgence push the risk-barometer pair to reverse the previous day’s recovery moves during early Monday. Even so, the RSI’s bullish divergence, confirmation of the falling wedge seems more likely, which in turn could gain recovery strength on staying beyond the 0.6960 hurdle. Following that, a run-up towards the downward sloping trend line from early April, surrounding 0.7150 can’t be ruled out. However, the 0.7000 and the 0.7100 thresholds may offer intermediate halts during the anticipated rally. If at all the pair buyers keep reins past 0.7150, the 200-SMA level near 0.7280 will act as the last defense for the bears. Meanwhile, fresh declines can initially target the latest multi-month low around 0.6830 ahead of challenging the 0.6800 round figure, also comprising the lower line of the aforementioned wedge. It’s worth noting that the AUDUSD pair’s sustained downtrend past 0.6800 will aim for an early 2020 peak close to 0.6685 before targeting the sub-0.6600 area. Overall, AUDUSD bears are running out of steam and a corrective pullback is more likely.
by MTradingGlobal