Weekly Analysis 31st Dec 2022S.no Sector Remarks
1 Nifty Closed at 18105 up by 300points, last week’s low of 17780 was breached by only 5 points and then market reversed. All the sector’s participated in reversal except pharma. Weekly & monthly Tf is still not bullish but daily TF is showing signs of reversal. Now this index should not close below 18000 else next leg of downward rally will be fast. On upside if 18264(fri high) is crossed then 18323, 18385, 18500 will be resistance to watch out. On downside below 18000, 17800, 17636, 17550 will be imp levels to watch out. Need to keep eye on HDFC twins (HDFC ltd & HDFC bank) coz both are consolidating for 7 weeks now, Either side momentum can make or break NIFTY 50 & Banknifty.
2 Nifty Bank Closed at 42986, tested low of 41569 recovery in this index helped overall market. Daily closing above 43622 will take this to 44000 which will be tough resistance to crack. Above 43622, 44000, 44300, 44400, 44575,44850 will be levels to watch out for. On weekly TF this index is making higher high & higher low structure so till the time 41650, 40800 are not breached there is nothing much to worry. So put alert for level and once these levels are breached, book all position in bank stocks
3 Nifty PSU bank Closed at 4318, made low of 3843 and reversed. Banknifty and PSU bank making similar structure and now weekly closing above last week’s high of 4409 will bring momentum. Personally, I would like some correction in this index to initiate fresh trade, current levels are not good risk reward wise. Upside levels 4575,4760, 4870, down side support levels 3815, 3522, 3366. Around 3480/3500 index level we can initiate longs in PNB, Bank of Baroda, IOB
4 Nifty Auto Closed at 12611, took support at 12140 and then up around 400 points over last week close. Now this index should give 2 consecutive daily close above 12759 else this is sell on rise index for me as of now. On upside 12885 will be the tough battle to win for bulls, on down side 11800/12000 will be the crucial support levels. Escorts at 1800, TVS at 960, M&M around 975/1000 levels will be great buy. Put alerts for these prices in your system so that you dont miss out on opportunity
5 Nifty IT Closed at 28621, made low of 28209. On weekly TF this index has made inverted hammer, which is not good sign, till 28000 is intact nothing to worry below this 26313 will be the support. But sell off in Nasdaq is putting lot of pressure on our Indian IT stocks also. INFY around 1363/1400, TCS around 2973 will be great bargain. Currently wipro structure is looking good, above 398, 415, 425 looks possible
6 Nifty Infra Closed at 5252, took support at 5138. upside target of 5300 achieved now we should wait for 4979, 4882 levels to initiate longs
7 Nifty Pharma Closed at 12597, as mentioned last week also this index is not very bullish, around 12057 levels we can initiate long term bets in CIPLA, Drreddy, sunpharma etc. Wait n Watch sector
8 Nifty Metal Closed at 6723, took support from 6194 and gave good up move. China increasing tariff on their steel exports gave momentum to our metal stocks. Now 2 daily close above 6804 can take this index to 6900/6960.I will avoid this sector for fresh long as I am not interested in news driven growth
9 Nifty FMCG Closed at 44171, took support at 44057. On weekly TF made bearish candle and below this week’s low of 44057, 43650 can be tested which will be good place to enter in Top FMCG stocks. On upside 44960,45228, 45400 will be the levels to watch out. ITC at 314, HUL at 2466, tata consumer at 748 will be good place to initiate longs
10 Midcap & Small cap Midcap closed at 31509, took support at 30000 and gave nice upmove of 1500 points. Personally, I got many scripts at very good price and booked out of some. Now 31944 is imp resistance to watch out for above which another leg of rally can come on down side 30000 is imp support. If not entered in last week’s fall, wait for another round of selling to enter good midcap stocks. Small cap closed at 9731, took support at 9100, above 10000 we can expect some fireworks. I would recommend to keep booking or locking profit in both the indexes as i am not fan of V shape recovery
11 Nifty Energy Closed at 25869, made low 24665 and reversed. On upside 26325, 26700, 27000, are imp levels, on down side 24760, 24260 are very important support levels. Reliance around 2370 is good place to go long although as of now reliance structure is not bullish
CNXIT
NIFTY IT - Recovery started with Double Bottom Breakout ConfirmKey highlights: 💡⚡
On basis of Weekly Time Frame
📊 Currently NIFTYIT has given Double Bottom Breakout with confirmation.
📊 Keep an eye on IT sector's scripts.
📊 Example : LTTS , COFORGE , TECHM
1st Target - 32816
2nd Target - 34381
Support - 30559
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
⚠️ Purely technical based pick.
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Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
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TECH STOCKS PART TWONifty information looking good finally on daily chart by breaking a horizontal trendline resistance and looking bullish in setup for coming sessions MACD indicator divergence giving positive divergence signals too on daily chart, That is why I am looking fresh long opportunity in this oversold index stocks..
Cause of Long
1- Horizontal resistance trendline breakout.
2- MACD positive crossover
Tech MahindraTech Mahindra breakout or breakdown level
Tech Mahindra is an Indian multinational information technology services and consulting company. Part of the Mahindra Group, the company is headquartered in Pune and has its registered office in Mumbai. Tech Mahindra is a US$6.0 billion company with over 158,000 employees across 90 countries.
MINDTREEMINDTREE breaking some resistance points on daily time frame, Risky entry started after candle closing today safe entry will start at given level i.e 3600.
Trade according to your setup.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 NOV 2022What a spirited performance by NSE:BANKNIFTY today! Mega gap up opening at 42163 breaking the all time highs and a perfectly strong buy day today. The attempt to close the gap was short-lived when BN took support at 41929 (The swing high of the last few sessions).
This was quite expected after the mega US rally yesterday, SP:SPX up 5.5%, NASDAQ:NDX up 7.49%.
Here bank nifty was already at ATH so this overnight news really helped the NSE:CNXIT index more (up 3.81% today).
I have been covering this story for a while now, the expiry trades are at isolation mostly due to positioning and the adjacent days has continuous price action. Let me be very specific here with examples
From image below, see the blue encircled portion which is what happened in expiry yesterday. The entire day was in isolation - the day today had no significance to the trades done yesterday.
The pink highlight shows how the bank nifty would have continued if there was no expiry positioning. Remember i said this expiry bank nifty will be bearish - it was because of this see orange highlight.
The last 1 hour move on wednesday showed us indications that thursday will be bearish. But this had no significance in the overall trend direction. What this does is create an imbalance of information - which leaves a hole in the pocket for traders who cannot digest it.
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Of the bank nifty components we have few anomalies today - lets try analyzing them one by one
NSE:HDFCBANK up 5.67% mostly because of the MSCI rebalancing news. The gap up was soft, the news drove the stock up.
NSE:ICICIBANK down only -0.46% but the chart pattern of icici vs hdfc shows a mirror like image. The gap up was huge and the fall was rhyming with the hdfc news.
NSE:SBIN also had similar chart patern as icici - mega gap up and a gradual fall to close lower. Both SBI and ICICI would have been unwound to stabilize the bank nifty index when hdfcbk was getting accumulated. Again the institutions would have done this keeping their MTM losses under check
If yes - then we can expect a counter move in the next 3 sessions prior to this expiry. Or else the big boys will have to take their losses and move forward.
The fall in BSE:KOTAKBANK came after 11.00 only, the intensity of fall was strong - may be the strong hands would have booked profits after the move yesterday.
Axis bank gave confusing chart pattern today - jumping up and down after the gap up. The chart isnt bearish today - but i cannot say its bullish also.
IndusInd bank closed positive even after a gradual fall.
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If you look that the chart today, the 9.20 straddlers would have made money. the open and close exactly at the same levels. As 80% of the last 2 months move were in the same fashion.
Macros overnight creates gap up or gap down and then the trade for the day happens as the same level. Even for a day like today where hdfc bank had news flow and it rallied 6% - the market participants fought hard to keep the open and close in the range by offloading ICICI, SBI, Kotak.
Now is not the time for the faint of heart to do options trading - the people who make money are either the news makers or the insiders.
Far OTM PE options would have given good naked selling opportunities today. Look at the intraday highs, previous day close and the final close of todays.
Here again algos and HFTs would have identified these mispricings before you or me did.
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S&P500 vs bank nifty the spread has closed down a little due to the extra special move yesterday.
SPX down -12.16% vs Bank nifty +6.65%. Lets note that US market had a bear rally bounce vs a bull run in India.
After yesterday's move, the nearest support is at 3945.86 and resistance at 3991.18. Also note yesterday's move took out the long red candle as of 02 nov 14.30.
Nobody can predict, but the bounce we had in US market was because the trades felt the CPI news will prompt US FED to pivot and start doing the QE from the QT now.
Guess what will happen if the FED says they are not pivoting?
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15mts vs 1hr TF bank nifty - both are showing immense bullishness. Notice today's trade staying on top of the swing high of the last sessions - indicating strength.
1D vs 1W also showing strong bullishness. The day's candle is a break away red doji much like a shooting star. But the week's candle is strong green with a long bottom wick.
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Bank nifty support and resistance has been updated
new support1: 41929, support2: 41618
resistance: no resistance as at ATH
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PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
HCL TECHNOLOGIES HCL TECHNOLOGIES has beautifully taken a support at 0.5 Retracement level and its 200 Weekly Exponential Moving Average.
If we try to see the importance of 200 Weekly Exponential Moving Average for HCL TECH, then you can observe it has been rarely been broken by HCL TECH(Year 2008 & 2020 shown in the chart). Rest of the time when market is not in a panic mode HCL TECH respects the 200 EMA quite precisely(Year 20212 & 2016 shown in the chart).
Currently HCL TECH is taking support at its 200 EMA, 50% Retracement level of its Covid rally and a RSI Divergence has been formed at this official level. For short term a target of 1070 seems good from the Current level.
CHART & ANALYSIS
ADARSH DEY
Correlation between Nasdaq and Indian IT stocksThere is an interdependency between them but not to the extent, that people considered it to be.
Indian IT stocks have shown much resilience and hold their position better despite the sharp fall in the US market.
There are a few challenges to this sector
1. Attrition
2. Usd/INR
3. Fear of recession
In case of recession, it will be beneficial for western countries, they will outsource the workforce, which could ease the pressure on their margins.
Looking at the price structure and valuation of IT stocks,
It seems to receive support at 8-10% below the current value.
IT INDEX looking for 2XAs predicted last time for IT index to sell at 33850, which was followed by 20% correction in the Index and saved capital there.
Now looking at the market scenario, IT stocks looking one of the best bets in the Indian sector
1) Golden pocket zone of 2020 bull run
2) Bounced from the long awaited channel trendline
3) Taking support at previous support zone of 25-26k
Disclaimer: Chart, data and levels for study purpose only. I am not a financial advisor. Use your intelligence before investing.
NIFTY IT: Going Long as Risk to reward shifting to longNifty IT Views:
Almost 30% correction from TOP of 39k.
IT sector has long term benefits due to digitization drive taken across globe.
Views: Long Position.
Currently taking multiple support at around 26K, this is previous year consolidation area
Current consolidation range between 26k to 30k.
+ve divergence in RSI.
To estimate down side, previous year consolidation low of 24.2k can be taken as Stop loss.
Looking at the top of 39k with stop at 24.2k the current position give good risk to reward ratio of 4.
This indicates for going long in this sector as technically the Risk-Reward is now shifting for Longs.
Top Pick:
INFY
TCS
HCL
NIFTY IT - Just a view Key highlights: 💡⚡
📊 Currently NIFTYIT may take support of level 28663 which was previously working as resistance.
📊 If it is breaking support level one can go for SHORT into IT sector.
📊 Example : MPHASIS & COFORGE for SHORT.
IF SUPPORT LEVEL IS BREAK THEN ONLY GO FOR SHORT TRADE.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
Nifty IT Seem BullishWatch IT Sectors Stocks like: TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra Etc.
Inverse Head and Shoulders
The inverse head and shoulders chart is thought to predict a bearish-to-bullish trend reversal and signals that a downward trend is nearing its end. Investors consider it to be among the most reliable trend reversal patterns.