Commodities
Gold Intraday PlanGold prices extended gains in yesterday trading session for the fifth day out of the last six and reached an all-time high at 2,748, just below of the psychological 2,750 mark. Geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to lower borrowing costs are helping gold bulls right now.
As per price action gold price Invalidated the Gravestone doji pattern that was formed in Monday trading session and sustaining the price over to major support area 2738-40 (As visible on Volume profile).Today price opened with small gap down which is indication that the current over extended bull run is somewhat exhausting and need a break/ pause ,so selling with calculated risk is seems to be favourable at current elevated levels and if price breakdown this support area on volume profile then we can expect a good correction towards 2700 or low.
Silver is going to continue the rally Up as Historic Trend showsChart Understanding:
-- XAUUSD is price of 1 ounce of Gold in USD. Also known as Spot gold price chart.
-- XAGUSD is price of 1 ounce of Silver in USD. Also known as Spot Silver price chart
Spot Gold to Spot Silver price ratio of last 20 years shows how silver will trend in the near future.
-- When graph goes down, Silver rises.
Analysis
-- Last time when silver was at an all time high $34 USD/ounce, the ratio was at 46:1.
-- The ratio fell below the lower band and thus silver prices fell as mean reversion came to effect.
-- This time, when silver is at $34 USD/ounce, the ratio is at 79:1.
-- If mean reversion will happen this time, then it means silver still has a lot of price hike to catch to attain that.
-- If ratio of 66 is to be attained, keeping gold price constant, the silver price needs to increase to $41.5 USD/ounce, which is an increase of roughly 23% from current price.
As such, silver seems to be a better bet in the current uncertain times to give good returns compared to gold. The historical valuation of both precious metals show that silver has long been lost in the valuation race and has lot to catch.
"A historical analysis by the World Gold Council shows that despite gold’s current higher market value, silver’s intrinsic value is higher due to its relative rarity — five times less abundant than gold (World Gold Council, 2023). As historical and intrinsic value factors realign, silver’s price could adjust to reflect its true worth, potentially exceeding gold’s value in the (distant) future."
natural gas longNatural gas has been in an uptrend on the daily charts for a while and after some correction on the daily time frame it has broken put from a head and shoulder reversal pattern on the hourly time frame. It is now re-testing the neckline support. This is a great entry point for a long in the commodity to capture the trend on the longer term time frame with a reasonable stop loss at the low below the right shoulder.
Gold : Due for correctionGold prices hit another record high during US session, yet it paused its advance amid elevated US Treasury bond yields and a strong US Dollar (But gold ignored the DXY move completely in last week).
On daily close as per price action we can see a gravestone doji which can open door for correction. So for today the plan is to sell under last day high , we can sell near CPR area(2722-2727) or wait for pullback to daily R1(2735) for possible sell opportunities, On lower side as you can see that price is currently in over elevated region and price did not tested the weekly pivot(2694) , so first we can expect a test at weekly pivot for this correction and then we have to watch how price going to react there .
GOLD | XAUUSD Chart PatternGold has been in a good uptrend in every new session it makes new all time high so at this point i think we should wait for pullback and then enter to gain profit , 2716-2713 is the good support zone if price is rejected at this zone then we should go long , wait for candlestick pattern for better entry.
USOIL AT GOOD SUPPORT LEVELThis level of support is strong if we get any REVERSAL PATTERN here then we should go long till Resistance zone simply target is of last session high but if it breaks this level of support and closes below then we can see the low level of 69.100 or 68.700 , wait for the candlestick pattern formation to get good trade.
Crude Oil Trading Idea for Monday Session (21-10-2024)Crude oil price is currently Strong Resistance zone and it seems it'll break this zone if it breaks the level then then we can see the surge to 71.200 level or more from the zone in todays session and change in trend with minor pullback but if it fails to breach this zone then we can see a short to 69.000 to 68.600 level and if this level doesn't sustain the momentum of price then we will see a new low level in upcoming session.
Dwarikesh Sugar NSE By KRS ChartsDate:9th July 2024
Time:10:57 AM
Why Dwarikesh Sugar?
1. Corrected since 2022 and recently on 10th July reached depth of correction price as shown in chart.
2. Successfully breaks A wave price point and sustained too.
3. RR is very favorable and in Hourly TFs 100 EMA as support working fine.
SILVER Breakout Confirmed........Silver broke weekly resistance and weekly close confirmed it.
Next target is 35$ and 37$. It may pullback from there before reaching 48-50$.
Trade as per risk management.
NOTE : ALreay silver view was given before at 27-28$ with target of 32$. This is an update actually. You can find previous chart idea below in link
Gold renews all-time high within bullish channel, $2,750 eyedGold prices soared to a record $2,710, marking four days of gains as investors flock to safety. Despite a stronger US dollar, gold has remained within a rising trend channel for the past three months.
Caution Ahead
While the bulls celebrate breaking through a three-week-old resistance level, the momentum indicators suggest a potential pullback. With the RSI nearing overbought territory, we might see a brief dip before another surge in prices.
Key technical levels to watch
Gold’s next challenges lie at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the bullion’s September-October moves, respectively near $2,711 and $2,736, especially amid nearly overbought RSI conditions. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past the $2,736 hurdle, the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line surrounding $2,750 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. A breakthrough there could spark a rally towards the psychological $3,000 mark, with potential resistance around $2,800 and $2,900.
On the contrary, Gold’s price has solid support at the $2,700 level and the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension around $2,686. If it falls below these, watch for a key support zone near $2,665, where the late September resistance and the 10-day EMA converge. Should XAUUSD bears keep the reins past $2,665, the channel’s bottom line of near $2,630 will be the last defense of the buyers.
Buyers are likely to stay in control despite a potential pullback
While a short-term pullback in gold prices appears overdue, the overall bullish trend is expected to hold strong due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold above 2700Gold breakout psychological level of 2700 and now trading above this level after Chinese data ;as per my view buying at these elevated levels is risky (Same goes with sell also : sell is also risky but with proper MM sell seems to be more favorable as per volume distribution ) : So my plan is to sell at every Intra day resistance as per Pivots (R1:2702,R2:2711,R3:2725 and weekly R3: 2734).
Gold again reached at All time High : What next?As expected and as shared on daily updates ,we have seen a good bullish rally on gold again and gold re-tested the ATH level and now facing resistance on Intraday but there is no big indication of good rejection at ATH level: CPR is very extreme today and gold price still showing strength. Today we have some high impact data in US session that can generate good volatility
For today:
For Buy:
We will wait for breakout above 2685 and on breakout we can look for buy on Intraday towards 2700,
For Sell; Price need to see a good decline first /close on H4 and bears at least need to push the price under 2660 (Daily S1 for today) and then only we can look for sell opportunities on Intraday.
Crude Oil may go for uptrend on 17-102024Crude touched 69.650 in last trading session an now it seems to go for uptrend on todays session (17-10-2024) it may touch the level of 72 to 72.200 if it crosses 71.400 in todays session but for this first it have to break the level of 70.900 currently its hovering near to this level , lets see how it goes....
Gold Seems BullishGold is currently in consolidation range which seems to be 2668.00 to 2677.100 if it breaks the level of 2677.100 then we can see the levels of 2685 which was the last high and if it hovers there then it will break the resistance level , if price comes to support zone of 2668 to 2666 then we have to wait for the price action confirmation.
Is VEDL Ready to Soar? Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests YesTechnical Analysis of VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) Based on Elliott Waves
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The provided chart of VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) suggests a bullish trend based on Elliott Wave principles. The analysis identifies a potential impulse wave structure, which typically consists of five waves.
Elliott Wave Analysis Update
We're currently within Wave (3) in blue intermediate degree, with subdivisions marked as Red 1 to 5 Minor degree, Having completed Red 1 to 3, we're nearing the end of Red 4.
Key Takeaways:
1. Post-Red 4 completion, we expect an upward move to complete Red 5, targeting 1.618 Fibonacci extension (measured from Blue Wave (1).
2. Wave 5 (Red) is the final leg of Wave (3) in Blue which is of intermediate degree.
3. Overall, the outlook remains bullish.
Important Principle:
As per Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1. This means Red 4 cannot enter the territory of Red Wave 1.
Nearest or current Invalidation Level:
If the price enters 471 (Wave 1 high), our labelled view will be negated, and we'll need to reassess the chart.
Expected Outcome:
If the invalidation level holds, our view remains intact, targeting 537 or nearby.
Actionable Insights:
- Monitor Red 4 completion
- Watch for Wave 5 unfolding
- Keep 471 as the critical invalidation level
Right Direction:
The annotation "Right Direction ↑" suggests that the overall trend is expected to be upward.
Invalidation Level:
The level of 424 is identified as an invalidation level. A break below this level would negate the bullish outlook and suggest a potential reversal.
Target:
While a specific target is not provided in the chart, a potential target for wave 3 could be around the 1.618 extension level (537.55) based on the length of wave 1. However, this is a rough estimate and subject to change based on market conditions.
Overall Outlook:
Based on the Elliott Wave analysis, VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) appears to be in a bullish uptrend. The market is expected to continue rising, with a potential target around the 537.55 level. However, it's crucial to monitor the price action closely and be prepared to adjust the analysis if the market's behavior deviates from the expected pattern.
Remember: Elliott Wave analysis is a complex tool that requires practice and experience. It's essential to approach it with caution and always consider the potential risks involved in trading.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
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However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Graphite India for 100%+ upsideDate: 21 Sep’24
Timeframe: Weekly chart
Graphite India currently seems to be in Wave III of 3 which is heading towards 1400 levels (130% growth from current price) as seen in the chart. Even if it attains its previous all time high of August 2018, that’s almost double its current price. If one can handle the fluctuations that operators inject from time to time and hold tight, this one is a no brainer.
This is not a trade recommendation. Please do your own analysis.
Navigating Change: The Impact of SEBI's F&O PolicySEBI's new rules for F&O traders will take effect on November 20. The changes include increasing the contract size for index derivatives from Rs 5-10 lakh to Rs 15-20 lakh, which i believe is not a good idea. They are also reducing the number of weekly expiry options for index derivatives, which i see as a positive change. However, the decision to eliminate weekly expiry for Bank Nifty options is viewed negatively.
It's hard to understand what SEBI is trying to achieve. i think the chairman believes she is making smart decisions, but it feels quite the opposite. It seems like they want to take more money from retail investors while claiming to act in their best interest. Increasing taxes, raising contract sizes, and removing Bank Nifty weekly expiration's doesn’t seem helpful for the stock market or retail traders. Retail investors and traders play a crucial role in providing liquidity for institutional investors, generating tax revenue for the government, and maintaining market vitality. However, it appears that SEBI primarily favors large traders and investors, which may seem unfair to the retail segment.
Instead of educating retailers, there appears to be a focus on restricting their earning opportunities in the stock market. In the future, this may leave only major players able to trade in India's stock market. SEBI should realize that there are many stock markets in different countries, and if retail investors and traders face restrictions here, they will move on to Forex or US stocks, which often offer higher leverage and lower brokerage fees. Retail traders will trade regardless.
The solution should be to educate investors and give them the freedom to make their own choices. I hope that in the future, SEBI will have a knowledgeable chairman who understands these issues better.
All eyes on GoldAs discussed in yesterday's update gold is still looking good to more higher and gold is following that statement perfectly , as you can see on hourly chart after a small pullback in yesterday trading session gold price took support at weekly pivot (2640) and after that price moving in higher side, for today also the CPR relation is positive and gold price is taking support on CPR area and we can expect continuation in higher side , weekly R1 is at 2677 and at that level we can expect another small pullback and then price can continue in higher side towards 2685 or higher level, there is no sign of good reversal so we have to wait for higher levels for any selling opportunities , the only limiting factor that currently stopping the gold bulls is strong dollar Index chart, but I think DXY is also due for correction which can help gold bulls to make a good move in higher side : overall the scenario is still favourable for buying on Intraday .
BTC & Gold Price Action Analysis | Key Levels and Trade SetupsIn today’s video, I dive into the latest price action analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold. We’ll be breaking down key support and resistance levels, identifying potential breakout zones, and discussing trade setups you can keep an eye on.
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