GOLD → Structural Rebalance Before Next Bullish LegGOLD → Structural Rebalance Before Next Bullish Leg
Gold remains in a strong bullish structure, showing consistent higher highs and steady momentum after each correction. The market has been consolidating above the $3,800 zone, where buyers continue to absorb liquidity and prevent deeper declines. This zone acts as a solid base for potential upward expansion. Current market behavior indicates controlled accumulation, suggesting that institutional buyers are maintaining dominance. If gold holds above $3,840–$3,820, the next bullish leg may target the $3,960–$4,000 region. A short-term retracement could occur, but overall momentum favors continuation. The price structure and volume behavior both support further upside, reflecting strong buyer control and stable sentiment in the market.
Commoditytrading
Gold Market Outlook – Bullish Trend Building MomentumGold continues to follow a structured bullish cycle, where each consolidation phase has been followed by a breakout and expansion. Market behavior shows liquidity being collected in sideway ranges, then released to fuel upward momentum.
At the current stage, price is trading around $3,870, showing signs of a potential short-term pullback to gather liquidity from the mid-zone. Once this corrective move stabilizes, the chart suggests a renewed bullish impulse with a projected upside target toward the $3,965 level.
This pattern highlights that the market remains in a controlled bullish phase, where temporary retracements are acting as setups for continuation rather than reversal. The underlying flow still favors higher levels as long as buyers maintain activity after corrections.
XAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market InsightsXAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market Insights
Gold is showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations, with price consolidating around the mid-range levels. The chart highlights repeated sequences of structural breaks and shifts, indicating that liquidity has been actively swept on both the buy and sell side.
The latest market move shows a controlled decline, followed by an attempt to absorb selling pressure. Current positioning suggests the possibility of a short-term liquidity grab to the downside, which could fuel a stronger recovery leg in the sessions ahead.
The projected outlook favors a scenario where buyers regain momentum, aiming to retest the upper price zones. If this momentum develops, the market may establish a renewed upward leg in alignment with the broader bullish cycle observed across higher timeframes.
From a macro perspective, gold continues to be supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing global financial uncertainty and shifting monetary policies. This backdrop enhances the probability of gold sustaining its mid-term bullish trajectory despite temporary corrective phases.
Gold Breaking Limits – Trend Speaks for ItselfGold Breaking Limits – Trend Speaks for Itself
Gold Market Outlook
Gold continues to demonstrate a well-structured bullish cycle, characterized by steady momentum and clean trend development. The market has transitioned from a prolonged consolidation phase into a sustained directional move, where each breakout is validated by controlled retracements. This reflects strong participation and confidence from larger players.
The sequence of market shifts and break-of-structure signals highlight how short-term pullbacks are consistently absorbed, turning into fuel for further expansion. Price action is orderly, with no signs of erratic volatility, showing that buyers remain in control and liquidity is being managed efficiently.
Overall, gold is moving in line with the broader macro sentiment. The rhythm of accumulation, expansion, and continuation suggests that the current cycle has not yet exhausted its potential. While interim pauses are expected, the structural integrity of the trend continues to favor upside development over the medium term.
Gold – Reversals to TrendsOur system thrives on dual strength — catching reversals at the turn and riding the trend that follows.
MCX:GOLDM1! has been the perfect example.
Precision entries on reversals, disciplined trailing on momentum.
This edge has delivered multiple double-digit “R” trades.
Risk stays small, reward compounds big.
That’s the power of rules executed with patience.
Silver – Riding the WaveMCX:SILVERMIC1! is trending strong, and we are already surfing at 5R.
Our system’s strength lies in catching mean reversals early and riding the momentum that follows.
Disciplined risk, precise trailing, no second-guessing.
This approach has delivered consistent double-digit “R” trades in the past.
Now, the trend is in motion — and we stay with it as long as it runs.
XAU/USD – Market awaits JOLTS, Gold holds safe-haven role⚓️ Captain Vincent – XAU/USD: US–Venezuela tensions push Gold as safe haven
1. Market News 🌍
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the US military attacked a drug ship departing from Venezuela, as Washington steps up pressure on the Maduro government.
Earlier, Trump offered a $50 million bounty to force Venezuela’s President out of power, while deploying military forces near the Caribbean coast.
👉 These moves raise fears of a potential regional conflict, making Gold the top safe-haven asset. The strong rally this morning reflects safe-haven flows returning to GOLD.
📌 Tonight’s focus (3/9 – 21:00): JOLTS Job Openings report – a key gauge of US labour market health.
If the data comes weaker than expected → USD may face more pressure → Gold could accelerate higher.
2. Technical Analysis ⚙️
On the H1 chart, Gold has formed multiple BOS (Break of Structure), showing the bullish trend remains in control.
Buy Zone 3,478 – 3,480: Aligns with a major Order Block, strong support for pullback entries.
Sell Zone 3,577 – 3,579: Near fib extension 1.618, potential resistance where profit-taking may appear.
Key Support – Resistance zones:
Support: 3,528 – 3,507
Resistance: 3,562 – 3,585
3. Trade Scenarios 📌
🔺 BUY Zone (Priority)
Entry: 3,478 – 3,480
SL: 3,470
TP: 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,489 → 349x → 35xx
🔻 SELL Zone (Resistance)
Entry: 3,577 – 3,579
SL: 3,586
TP: 3,573 → 3,570 → 3,567 → 3,560 → 35xx
4. Conclusion ⚓
Gold continues to benefit from US–Venezuela geopolitical tensions, while maintaining a bullish structure with consecutive BOS signals.
In the short term, traders may:
Look to BUY around 3,478 – 3,480 to follow the main trend.
Watch for short-term SELL at 3,577 – 3,579 if price retests strong resistance.
👉 With geopolitical risks rising and US economic data (JOLTS) due tonight, Gold remains the No.1 safe-haven asset.
FED dovish, Gold stays bullish; SELL only for scalps⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD
1. Market Wave 🌍
The probability of a FED rate cut in September surged to 96.6% (vs 90.4% earlier) after the JOLTS report showed weakening job prospects.
Several FED officials, from Kashkari to Bostic, shifted dovish. Only Musallim maintained a hawkish stance with a scenario of just one cut.
👉 Result: Capital flows returned to Gold as the No.1 safe haven, pushing prices strongly higher overnight.
📌 Key data today (04/09 – US time):
ADP Nonfarm (7:15)
Jobless Claims (7:30)
ISM Services PMI (9:00)
➡️ This trio of data will be crucial catalysts for GOLD volatility.
2. Technical Analysis ⚙️
On M30/H1, Gold continues to form bullish BOS, keeping the main trend upward.
Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3,477 – 3,479): Old Order Block, strong support if price pulls back.
Quick Boarding 🚤 (Sell Scalp 3,561 – 3,563): Only for short-term scalps.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3,573 – 3,575): Aligned with Fibo 0.618–0.786, strong resistance with potential selling pressure.
Captain’s Shield 🛡️ (Support): 3,526 – 3,515 – 3,508
3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙
🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY – Priority)
Entry: 3,477 – 3,479
SL: 3,470
TP: 3,480 → 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,491 → 349x → 35xx
🚤 Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short Ride)
Entry: 3,561 – 3,563
SL: 3,569
TP: 3,558 → 3,555 → 3,552 → 354x
🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Strong Resistance)
Entry: 3,573 – 3,575
SL: 3,581
TP: 3,570 → 3,565 → 3,560 → 3,555 → 35xx
4. Captain’s Note ⚓
"The golden sail is filled with wind as the FED turns dovish. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3477) remains the safe haven to align with the bullish trend. SELLs are just Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps at Storm Breaker 🌊 , not long voyages."
Gold consolidates as new alliances emerge | Captain Vincent 1. News Wave 🌍
At the two-day summit in Shanghai, Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping announced that India and China will become development partners rather than competitors.
The meeting also included Russia and four Central Asian nations, aiming to form a Southern Hemisphere bloc to counterbalance the US and the West.
👉 This signals a shift in geopolitical power, heightening concerns of global polarization → Gold continues to hold its safe-haven position.
2. Technical Analysis ⚙️
On the H2 chart, Gold has formed a Higher High after the recent strong breakout.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3511 – 3518): Strong resistance, potential for supply if price retests.
Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3450 – 3448): Confluence with FVG + Fibonacci 0.5/0.618, a key support for pullback entries.
Main Trend: Gold likely to move sideways between 3450 – 3510 before choosing a major direction.
3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙
🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Reaction)
Entry: 3511 – 3508
SL: 3518
TP: 3505 → 3500 → 3497 → 349x → 348x
🏝️ Golden Harbor (BUY Zone – Strong Support)
Entry: 3450 – 3448
SL: 3440
TP: 3453 → 3456 → 3459 → 3462 → 346x
4. Captain’s Note ⚓
"Political news continues to stir the golden sea 🌊. Bears are waiting at Storm Breaker 3511, but the safe harbor remains Golden Harbor 3450 – 3448. In such unpredictable waters, prioritise short-term sells to flow with safe-haven demand, rather than recklessly facing the storm."
Natural Gas Futures (INR) Weekly Chart pattern analysisNatural Gas Futures (INR) Weekly Chart pattern analysis.
For the students, We will include chart structure, patterns, demand-supply zones, and precise support/resistance levels based on what is seen on the charts :
- Chart OverviewTimeframe: Weekly (1W)Current Price: 244.7 (down -5.30%)Price is near an important ascending trendline support (green line) after a strong correction from recent highs. Structure shows earlier breakout above descending trendline (blue) followed by a retest and rejection.
🧭 1. Trend Analysis- Long-Term Trend:From 2022 highs (900+), Natural Gas was in a sharp downtrend (blue descending trendline).Downtrend broke in late 2023, initiating a mid-term uptrend within an ascending channel.
Short-Term Trend:Since the 405.7 high (early 2025), prices are in a correction phase.Price now testing demand zone near 244-212.
📈 2. Chart Patterns,Ascending Channel: Price has been moving between parallel green lines since late 2023.Breakdown Risk: Price is testing the lower channel line; breakdown could trigger more downside.Head & Shoulders Possibility: The highs around 405-358 resemble a left shoulder-head-right shoulder formation, with neckline near 249-244. A confirmed break below could accelerate selling.
Supply Zone Rejection: Strong selling emerged from 358-405, marking it as a supply zone.
3. Key Technical Levels: Rejection Level: High Significance 405.7
-Major Supply 2025 high, strong rejection point 358.7
Secondary Supplying- Recent swing high before sell-off
249.6-244.7
- Current Zone - Channel support & neckline zone
218.0 - Demand Zone Past consolidation & buying interest
212.0 - Strong Support Historical demand zone floor
209.9
- Critical Support
If broken, opens path to 180-160⚖ 4. Demand & Supply ZonesDemand Zones:218-212 (weekly accumulation area)180-160 (last major base before rally)
Supply Zones:358-405 (heavy selling area)280-300 (minor supply if bounce occurs)
5. Possible ScenariosScenario
1 Support Holds:If 244-212 holds, expect a bounce towards 280 and 300.A close above 300 could re-test 358.
Scenario
2 - Breakdown:A close below 212 could lead to a quick drop towards 180-160.
👉 Disclaimer:
This is for educational purposes only, not trading advice. Futures & commodities are highly volatile; manage risk and consult a registered financial advisor.
#naturalgas #technicallevels #chartpatternabalysis #commoditytrading
Gold Plan 18/08 – Captain VincentBackground
For the past two days, Gold has repeatedly tested the 3332 – 3334 zone and slipped down to 3323, showing that buyers at this level are losing strength.
The broader trend still leans bullish, but the market is heavily influenced by geopolitics and news events:
📰 US–Russia preparing for a new round of Ukraine talks (15 Aug, Alaska).
🌐 Trump’s tariff stance remains unclear, adding volatility to Gold.
💵 Fed is likely to cut 25bps in September, keeping Gold in “defensive but ready to break out” mode.
➡ With this backdrop, today’s plan requires flexibility: Buy with trend, Sell scalp at key resistances.
1. Buy Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤
Entry: 3324 – 3326
SL: 3320
TP: 3328 → 3332 → 3336 → 33xx
Note: Only suitable for quick scalps, avoid holding longer.
2. Main Buy Zone – Safe Harbor ⚓
Entry: 3313 – 3311
SL: 3304
TP: 3314 → 3319 → 3325 → 3330
Meaning: This is the main launchpad for buyers if price corrects deeper.
3. Sell Scalp Zone – Storm Breaker 🌊
Entry: 3366 – 3377
SL: 3383
TP: 3362 → 3355 → 33xx
Meaning: Short-term resistance, ideal for quick reaction sells.
4. Main Sell Zone – Watchtower ⛩
Entry: 3396 – 3394
SL: 3402
TP: 3390 → 3385 → 3380 → 33xx
Meaning: Strong resistance zone, highly likely to trigger a bearish reaction.
If broken, Gold may extend further into 34xx.
Today’s Scenarios
If price dips to 3324 – 3326 → Quick Buy Scalp.
If price drops deeper → Prefer to Buy at Safe Harbor (3313 – 3311).
If price rises to 3366 – 3377 → Short-term Sell Scalp.
If price tests 3396 – 3394 → Stronger Sell, this is the main resistance.
Captain’s Note:
"The Gold ship still sails North ⚓ today, but each time it hits Storm Breaker 🌊 or Watchtower ⛩, the sails will drop for a quick strike before retreating. Waves from Trump–Putin headlines and the Fed’s next move may stir up rough seas. Remember, mates: better to miss one trade than let the waves sink the ship." 🏴☠️
Gold Plan 13/08 – Captain VincentGold Plan 13/08 – Captain Vincent ⚓
News Background
📊 Gold is holding steady near $3,350/oz after the US July CPI release.
Headline CPI : 2.7% (below forecast of 2.8%) 📉
Core CPI: 3.1% (up from 2.9%) 📈
➡ This cools down inflation fears from tariffs and increases the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September , which is bullish for Gold.
Key factors to watch:
💼 Market awaiting more data: PPI, jobless claims, retail sales.
🔍 Tariff drama: Trump says no tariffs, but US Customs just listed 1kg & 100oz gold bars under taxable imports.
🌐 US extends the trade truce with China for another 90 days.
🕊 US–Russia talks on Ukraine scheduled for 15 Aug in Alaska.
News conclusion:
Lower-than-expected CPI + higher Fed cut chances = Gold remains positive.
But tariff and geopolitical risks must be tracked closely.
Yesterday’s Action (12/08)
Gold tapped the Buy Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤 zone and bounced ~290 pips .
However, it failed to break decisively above the zone and moved sideways around support.
Technical Plan – 13/08
1. Sell Scalp – Quick Boarding Reverse ⚓
Entry: 3,374 – 3,376
SL: 3,382
TP: 3,368 → 3,362 → 3,355 → 3,3xx
Reason: Short-term resistance, suitable for quick sell scalps when price retests higher.
2. Sell Zone – Storm Breaker 🌊
Entry: 3,405 – 3,406
SL: 3,411
TP: 3,395 → 3,385 → 3,375 → 3,365
Reason: Major resistance zone aligned with previous highs and trend channel.
Scenarios:
Price likely to rise from current sideways range to test either Sell Scalp or Storm Breaker.
Priority: Sell if reversal signals (pin bar, engulfing) appear on M15/H1 at these zones.
If price breaks above Storm Breaker and holds above 3,411 → cancel sell plan, wait for new structure.
Captain’s Note:
"The CPI wave has anchored the Gold ship near 3,350. Today, the crew is ready to set sail towards Sell Scalp and Storm Breaker, waiting for the winds to shift for a profitable turn." ⚓🌊
Silver Futures – Bearish Reversal in Progress
Silver Futures – Bearish Reversal in Progress
Description:
Silver is showing a strong technical reversal across timeframes. Short-term correction looks likely.
Technical Setup:
Daily:
Evening Star + Bearish Engulfing
Flattening EMAs
Volume and MACD confirming momentum slowdown
Weekly:
Gravestone + Southern Doji near resistance
RSI close to overbought
EMA slope still up, but weakening signs visible
Macro View:
No major bearish macro trigger — Fed dovish, USD stable, inflation low.
→ This is likely a technical pullback, not a fundamental reversal.
Trade Plan:
🔻 Breakdown Level: ₹114,560
🎯 Targets: ₹107K → ₹101K → ₹93K
🛑 SL: ₹116,000+
Caution: No position without breakdown confirmation.
Big Move Ahead? Copper Futures Breakout Trade Setup!Hello everyone i hope you all will be doing good in your life and your trading as well. Today i have brought a Copper Futures (MCX, 1D) trading idea, earlier it has broken out of a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern , and given signal of a strong bullish move . after the breakout copper has given good move and finally trading above the all near term resitance zone like NECKLINE , Buyers are stepping in aggressively. If the price holds above the 895-880 zone, we could see a rally towards 913, 937, and even 986 in the coming sessions. But remember, risk management is key! A strict stop loss at 858 will help protect against any unexpected reversals. The structure looks solid, momentum is building up—now let’s see if the bulls take charge!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
If you Found this helpful? Don’t forget to like, share, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.
Silver Commodity - Breakout in Day TimeFrameSince September, silver futures have been consolidating, indicating a period of price stability and indecision among traders. As of today, January 30, 2025, the market has experienced a breakout from the established trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This breakout could suggest renewed buying interest and the possibility of upward price movement, making it an opportune time for traders to reassess their positions and strategies in light of this development.
Commodity Analysis: Silver – Potential Short-Term UpsideHello, Traders! 👋
Silver is shaping up for an interesting move:
📈 Technical Overview:
🔹 Higher low formed on the weekly chart, suggesting potential accumulation.
🔹 My ILTF indicator has already signaled a BUY, but the price remains sideways for now.
🔹 A breakout above 92,000 could trigger a short-term upmove toward the all-time high (ATH).
💡 Current Plan:
I’m not holding any position currently but closely watching for momentum on the daily chart. If a breakout occurs, I may consider initiating a pilot position to capture the move.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
🔹 I am not a SEBI-registered advisor.
🔹 This analysis reflects my personal views and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
🔹 Shared purely for learning purposes—please conduct your own research or consult a professional before trading.
Keep an eye on Silver—things might get shiny soon! 💡
XAU/USD - Gold about to give 20 dollars move?Key Observations:
1. Trendline Breakout:
- The price has broken above a descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
2. Demand Zone:
- A strong supply/resistance zone is evident around $2,639–$2,644, which has acted as a base for the breakout.
3. Bullish Trade Setup:
- A long position can be taken, if the price breaks out of resistance zone and retests, targeting the following levels:
- Target 1: $2,649.53
- Target 2: $2,657.36
- Target 3: $2,664.13
- Target 4: $2,668.70
- Stop-Loss: Below $2,639.65.
4. Alternate Bearish Scenario:
- If the price re-enters below the demand zone and fails to sustain the breakout, bearish momentum could push the price toward lower levels near $2,627.50.
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Trading Scenarios:
1. Bullish Continuation:
- If the price holds above $2,646, there is a strong likelihood of testing higher resistance levels up to **$2,668.70**.
2. Bearish Rejection:
- A move below $2,636.5 could invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating a potential retest of lower supports.
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Always use proper risk management when executing trades.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Trade responsibly.
SILVER FUTURES - INTRADAY In silver futures, 88,800 has been acting as a support level since December 23. Currently, the price is near this support line and hovering around the Weekly CPR (blue dotted lines). Silver can be considered for intraday trading now, with a stop-loss below the blue line or 88,600.
Looking for trade setup on Gold. Have a look at this. XAU/USD.XAU/USD on daily timeframe has switched from bullish to bearish but it’s still Bullish on weekly. We will take about weekly later but daily chart itself is speaking a lot of things.
We marked the market structure and it can be seen that there are multiple Orderblocks and Fvg that are pending and has to be mitigated before getting into Bullish bias.
For buy our plan would be to wait for any continuation trend on smaller time frame usually in 1Hr or 15min. For sell setup we would wait for a market structure shift on 1HR or 15min time frame. We are neutral for now & we need more validations. We have weekend coming. Forex & Commodity market doesn’t really have the volatile Mondays.
For a really nice setup we would have to be patience and need to follow our plan of action.
Follow us any stay updated with more setups tuning in.
Appreciate you’ll time.
Note this is for educational purposes only.
Gold Trading Levels for 19th November 2024Gold Trading Levels (Based on 1-Hour Candle Chart):
Buy Above: 2616 (Enter a buy position if the price breaks and sustains above this level on the 1-hour candle, signaling potential bullish momentum.)
Sell Below: 2600 (Enter a sell position if the price drops and sustains below this level on the 1-hour candle, signaling potential bearish momentum.)
Current Price: 2612.040
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Zones:
2640 – 2644
2660 – 2667
Watch for potential price rejection or breakout at these levels.
Support Levels:
2575
2550
2530
These levels may act as strong buying zones if the price drops significantly.
Trading Tips:
Book Profits Regularly: Lock in gains near resistance levels or key pivot zones to secure profits.
Use Trailing Stop-Loss: Adjust your stop-loss as the price moves in your favor to protect profits while allowing the trend to continue.
Disclaimer:
The levels and analysis provided are based on technical indicators and the 1-hour candle chart. This is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial or trading advice.
Risk Management Guidelines:
Always confirm price action (e.g., a breakout, breakdown, or reversal) at the listed resistance and support levels before making decisions.
Use stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing to manage risk.
Monitor economic events or news that may impact gold prices.
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in commodities, including gold, involves significant financial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.






















