Nifty (What Next ?)March Monthly candle will decide Nifty's Future.
Personally I feel coronovirus panic is short lived and market will soon be bullish. Many theories suggest that this was a planned chaos created by Chinese govt to surpass Western Economy.
Once they achieve their goal things will be back to normal.
Although in worst case, Nifty will find support around 2008 levels.
If you are an aggressive investor now its the best time to pour money into good stocks, If you want to play safe then wait till month end.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Neutral on BPCLBPCL can move either side.
Chart analysis shows it has broken the support zone and should head down towards 360 levels
But privatisation and fall in crude oil price can push the price up.
Due to coronavirus, the market is mostly based on the news rather than technical.
Upside target of 503
Long term Prospect on SPX500 — How far is the Market gonna dip?Conjuncture
As Coronavirus seem to have reached in the EU what looks to be so far its "propagation ceiling", the US is being rapidly contaminated with the virus; their extremely precarious healthcare system worsening the spread by making it increasingly harder for people to get tested. The US spread, being late of a week or two behind the EU, still has lots of room for propagation to grow. Therefore, as soon as the disease started significantly spreading in the US, the markets began accelerating to the downside despite already pricing within a really attractive range of prices .
This suggest that the market has just — or at least recently — started pricing the actual propagation in US territory, unlike what it was doing two weeks ago. This is a sentiment that is being reinforced by Chinese's global contamination number which has been decreasing for two or three days now. Nonetheless, keep in mind that these numbers (the Chinese ones), may only be partially reliable. If my postulate is correct, we should start seeing the Asian markets slowing down during the next week, the european markets (which are way closer from their weekly supports than the US) should follow the Asian pace shortly, while the US starts accelerating.
Context/Fundamentals
Coronavirus
Oil Crash and OPEC falls apart
EU ban
Weak economics fundamentals
Major Equities still overvalued
Central banks doubling down on complacent Monetary policy
Technicals
Weakening daily bearish RSI
Weekly support trendline broke to the downside (green)
Mid-Term support area 2571 to 2470 not holding prices anymore. Prices accelerating through the area in 4 hour and higher timeframes
Markets still have lots of room to the downside on weekly timeframes
Next Key Support Areas
Here's a weekly chart highlighting most of the attractive prices and levels of support, giving you a beforetaste of the amplitude of the freefall that may occur :
2343$ — 38.2 fibonacci of 2008 - 2019 We better not close below that area, otherwise we break through the bottom of 2019's bullish movement. From there, we're forecasting the end of a weakly bearish retracement, if not a trend.
2234-2111-1963$ — Those prices, while not being the most attractive, represent interesting low volume areas close if not onto the 2015-2016 range in which the market could setup short-term ranges (for a few days or weeks), Scalpers / Daytrader's paradise, Swing Traders and investor's nightmare. Why so ? Because we would be in the worst area for risk / profit ratio Weekly wise. The area between 38.2 and 61.8% is literally what we call the "Dumb Zone", it's not for nothing. Put your Risk/Reward ratio and see for yourself :
1693$ — 61.8% retracement of 2009 - 2019 bullish trend confluent with 50% price drop since last market top. This is getting extremely interesting, personally i have buy order in the books at this exact price. If we reach that area, we're probably gonna range a looong time around it. Would we be able to go lower ? Quite unlikely but not impossible, see next level.
1290$ — To me, this area represent both enormous opportunity and risk. This is the last chance for the US market to recover and start growing again. Any monthly close below that price and it's a multi-year bearish trend confirmed for those markets. Needless to say that, at this point the 1000$ on the SPX is gonna switch from major support to major resistance.
Such a pricing of the SPX500 along with all other major US indices would mark the end of the US Dollar aswell as the United States hegemony over the rest of the world. This scenario is for Doomers only.
And that seems to be it
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Go easy on leverage and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
Kindly,
J.M.K
Nifty Weekly chart analysis - Bulls need not worry about Corona As observed on the weekly chart of Nifty 50 bulls have nothing to worry as of now as the uptrend is intact.
The previous swing low (10637+) is is intact and its still trading above 200 Wk SMA (which is currently at 10290)
Nifty is currently at 61.8% retracement level from the March 2018 low to Jan 2020 high (all time high)
Bulls who are going long now without worrying about Corona Virus will most likely get coronated later part of the year! As I said we are in good position as long as preious swing low and 200 Wk SMA are still intact.
Cheers,
tRex
Nifty - India (Buy & Hold)-C- Wave or Corona Wave - What Next ?Disclaimer
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All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
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Thanks for hearing out short audio from our beloved PM - Modi ji & his reasons why India could do well in years ahead.
In 2019, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the office for a second term, the Bharatiya Janata Party in power passed about 63 bills in the Parliament this year alone.
The government has taken several key decisions. These historical decisions include
Abrogation of Article 370 provisions,
Triple talaq,
Anti-terror terrorism,
Merger of banks.
PM Kisan Scheme for all farmers -pension yojana etc
The Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Bill
The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Bill & list goes on
In a recent summit, Modi ji said- this is just a "Sample- Actual Action Shall Begin Soon" gives a impression that how much confident he is about our country to do well in years ahead.
Well now check out what a wave analyst like me suggest that India is an amazing country & would really do well as expected by Modi ji.
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Longer Term Waves description & Target
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Wave 1 - 10005 to 11981 - Wave 2 ( Divided into 3 Waves "ABC" - Wave A -Down from 11981 to 10670 - Wave B - Upside Choppy from 10670 to 12430 - Wave C - C Wave or Corona Wave from 12430 to 11175
Expected Wave 3 Next
Proposed Long Term Count is valid till channel low @ 11080-11100 holds - going below channel key zone 10630-10670 should - finally critical level 10550-10600 should hold for Wave 3 targets proposed from channel low 11100 so far (which is yet to happen next) - 161.8% of Wave 1 Distance = Approx 14000- 14250 is expected
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Short Term Target
From the cluster zone of 11100- 11150 expect upside targets as mentioned below
Plan A - Targets
11325-11350
Above 11350 - 11525-11550
Above 11550 - 11625-11650
Above 11650 - 11750-11775
Plan B - Targets- (Once starts moving -trail your stops to entry price)
Sell in 11325-11350 - No selling above 11350 - Target : 11080-11100
Sell in 11525-11550 - No Selling above 11550 - Target : 11080-11100
Sell in 11625- 11650 - No selling above 11650 - Target : 11080-11100
Sell in 11750-11775 - No selling above 11775 - Target : 11080-11100
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Stellium Effect Video Idea (Click below)
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Dollar Rupee Video Idea - Next Path holding 70.35 -Expect 72.25 & More on upside
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DowJones Last Idea - Reminds me of Niagara Falls 29500 to 24680
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TradingView Profile Page
in.tradingview.com
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Thanks for reading the idea - Stay Classy until next idea. Don't forget to plan your portfolio for longer term version - hopefully, let us meet at the other end.
Some of the portfolio stocks discussed
Tata Coffee
Tata Steel
National Aluminium (Nalco), etc
Nifty -The Choppy Drive for 200+ Making of WedgeTrading Strategy
09:32 Hrs / 30th Jan 2020
Last Price - 12083
Plan A – Short Term Plan: ------ This Plan is Active
Holding 12070-12080 –Traders can look for 12150-12170 & above 12170 look for 12225 / 12250 + ----- No Buy Trades if goes below 12070
Making of Wedge ( Note - Pattern invalidates if 12025 is breached on downside before pushing upside)
Plan B - Long Term Plan:
Traders can have long or buy positions holding 12025 –if you get opportunity close to 12025-12035 zone -which is key level for Targets upside 12150 / above 12170 for 12225 & 12250+ (Take care- allow markets atleast 10-15 mins to trade & hold in 12025/12035 zone before you execute the trade as suggested above in Plan B)
Plan C –
Buy If Index crosses 12375 – Strictly holding above 12375 –Expect upside 12450 / 12500 zone
Plan D –
Selling if crosses above 12430 & later falling back below 12375 –key level mentioned in Plan C
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Previous Video Ideas
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Last Nifty Idea - Stellium Effect - How I cracked the tops at 12295
Dollar Rupee (USDINR) Last Idea