BITCOIN BELOW $ 45000 ! WHAT NEXT?BITCOINS JOURNEY SINCE DEC 2020 TO JAN 2021
The major cryptocurrency Bitcoin prices has recently slashed from $69,000 to $40,000 in about less then 2 months. Bitcoin was on its peak at $69,000 on November 10th, 2021 and it made a recent low of $ 39558 on Jan 10th 2022, a decline of 42%. However, in last few days it gave a sharp upside movement towards $45,000 from $ 39558 and trading between $42,000 to $43,000, but the question is that will this short rally will continue or Bitcoin has ended its rewarding era?
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
LAST ONE YEAR HISTORY
Over the last year, since 20th Dec 2020 Bitcoin started its upward rally and climbed to almost $ 65,000 in very short span of time and made its a fresh lifetime high of $ 64,895 on 14th April 2021. Investors who rode this rollercoster that started from $24,000 on 20th Dec, cherished the rally and a earned whooping return of almost 170% and that too only in 4 months (512% p.a).
BUT, this rally didn't sustain and Bitcoin prices slashed to $28,600 on 22nd June 2021, which means it lost all the return it gave in less then half of the time that it gained in last four months.
Though, Bitcoin never disappoints its investors, it started a fresh start from the mid of 2021. A fresh sharp rally was seen in Bitcoin, when the prices shot up to $69,000 on 10th Nov 2021 from just $29,000 on 20th July 2021, means it rewarded its investors once again with a three digit return. But, soon after making a fresh life time high of $ 69,000 on 10th Nov 2021, it once again moved downward and slashed to a low of $40,000 on 10th Jan 2022.
CURRENT SCENERIIO
Over the last year (as explained above) it has created a "M" shape return to the investors, which in technical langauage is called "A Double Top" pattern which is yet to be confirmed. According to this pattern if any script falls below the neckline (marked red in image) then prices may fall equivalent to the height of this pattern which is aproximately around $ 35,000.
CONCLUSION
If the price of Bitcoin falls below its recent low of $ 39,558 which it made on 10th Jan 2022, then we expect a further downtrend in bitcoin in 2022 uptill the mark of $25,000. So if you are a swing trader, you can make position with a stop loss of $ 39,500 (Marked Yellow in the image) for target of $ 45,000 to $50,000, But if you are a Value Investor, then you should only invest 30% of your total amount at current levels around $42000-$43000. Rest of the amount should be kept either for the further corrections or till the upward movment is confirmed by the upcoming trends.
