Dollar Looks Vulnerable : Here’s My Take on What’s Coming Next!Price has recently taken out an Old High and has now reached an Imbalanced price range, which is more evident on the Weekly Timeframe.
This move has presented buyside liquidity for sellers by taking out the Old High and simultaneously offered fair value by entering into an imbalanced price range (FVG / SIBI - 1W Timeframe).
From here, price may now head lower towards the Draw on Liquidity, with Sellside Liquidity as the next objective, as shown in the chart.
This is how I see it, though I’d advise you to do your own analysis.
Dollar
#US10Y YIELD - TESTING MAOR SUPPORT - YIELD PAIN STILL LEFT?????As we can see, US 10y yield is retesting major support, which was held last time. If this holds then we are about to retest the recent highs in coming months. Major resistance 5.00. Break below 3.2 levels will start new downtrend otherwise we are heading much higher.
Fingers Crossed!!! I feel we are in for a bumpy ride ahead.
Very Bullish on Silver Any one who interest to invest in silver ... This is the best time to buy silver as we can see that silver has give a big time breakout above the 26 dollar so its a clear sign that the buyer has come to flow upward price of the silver . . .
As you also know that the silver and gold is a good asset class . so wants to beat inflation with minimum risk can go with the silver and gold as well gold is also asset class but today my idea is specific about only one that is silver. . .
remember this line .
TRADE OF DEACDE IS SILVER RIGHT NOW DATED(05/04/2024)
In my opionion here are best available instrument in the area of silver to invest in india:-
1:-Tata silver etf (in my opinion this is best than nippon silver etf)
2:-Buy physical silver directly from your nearest jwellery shop
this 2 option is best to invest in silver in india . . .
if you want to purchase etf then you only want a demat account and you can easily purchase this tata silver etf
Disclaimer i invested in silver already
Disclaime:-i am not sebi registered all loss as well as profit you totally yours , i am not responsible for any kind of profit or loss solely you are responbile for that
my resoposbility is to share idea with you which i think that .
thanks for reading waiting for your profitable comment
Wondering where the Dollar is headed next? He're is a hint. Analysis
A five wave decline from 107.34, the high on Oct 03, 2023 to 100.62, the low on Dec 28, 2023.
In Elliott terms, this impulse structure tells us that the movement at the next larger degree of trend is also downwards. Within this impulsive structure, wave (i) is a Leading Diagonal, wave (ii) is a Flat which neatly predicts a Zigzag wave (iv) by guideline of Alternation. Both waves (iii) and (v) are extensions. The impulsive decline holds well within the parallel trend channel as is often expected.
A five wave move is always followed by a three wave corrective pullback or variation thereof, irregardless of degree; in this case, a rally wave ((ii)).
To where? The Elliott wave guideline on the depth of corrective waves suggests that price action should ideally end within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Second, the ensuing correction, wave (ii) is unfolding as a sharp Double Zigzag correction labelled (w)-(x)-(y) with waves (w) and (x) completed, wave (y) in progress.
In ratio relationships, sharp corrections tend more frequently to retrace 61.8% of the previous wave particularly when they occur as wave (ii) of an Impulse or wave (b) in a larger Zigzag.
Also, the actionary waves in a Double Zigzag correction namely waves (w) and (y) are often related by equality or Fibonacci (0.618) in time or amplitude.
wave (y) = 0.618 X (w) at 104.87; this level falls neatly within the previous guidelines.
Thus, the cluster of evidence suggest the rally is nearing its end and a reversal is onset; a third wave.
Trade Plan
1) Conservative Approach
Entry: Short at 104.879; the 0.618 retracement.
Protective Stop: 107.34; in an Impulse wave (ii) CAN NEVER retrace more than 100% of wave (i).
Target: 10.87 decline; in an impulse the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the loss of
the first, as in:
wave ((i)) = -6.72 (100.62-107.34),
wave ((iii))= 1.618 X (-6.72) equals (-10.87)
Risk-Reward: 1:3
2) Aggressive Approach
Requires price action to break below a recent swing low; wave b of a Zigzag, that will virtually suggest the rally has ended and a reversal was underway.
Entry: Break below 103.89
Protective Stop: Recent swing high
Targets: Below 100.62
Risk-Reward: Greater than 1:3
NOTE: Stay tuned to get follow-up adjustments to stops as we monitor the move through completion.
Technical Outlook of Crude oil ( WTI )Crude oil prices experienced a decline, reaching the lowest point since November, attributed to a growing surplus in supply. Despite the OPEC+ official announcement, oil prices have maintained relative stability in the aftermath. Participants within OPEC+ are recognizing the missed opportunity and attempting to mitigate the situation through additional comments, such as those made by the Saudi Energy Minister.
In terms of technical analysis, the $80.00 mark serves as a crucial resistance level. If crude oil manages to surpass this threshold, the next resistance is anticipated at $84.00 (represented by the purple line), where selling pressure or profit-taking may occur. Conversely, the soft support near $74.00 is currently under pressure, acting as the final defense before potentially entering a range of $70.00 and below. Traders should monitor the $67.00 level, marked by a triple bottom from June, as the next significant support level.
Revised Support Levels:
$71.50 to $70.80
Revised Resistance Levels:
$73.50 to $74.80
Inverse 🥶If Dxy sustain on 103 ( marked in the chart) then a upside momentum to (110 feb 2024)--(115 sep 2024) is possible, which could impact the US stock market and in some cases Indian market too .
Disclaimer :
It's a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
UK100 (FTSE) - LIKELY TO DO A THIRD UPWARDS?UK100 has a clear 5 wave up from COVID-19 lows.
This is either an ABC pattern or a five-wave impulse. In either case, we should anticipate a significant move. Such big moves sometimes come after sentimental extremes or events - which is much awaited.
If this transpires, would be led by a commodity-led rally, which would in turn imply a weak dollar, loose liquidity, and high inflation. Let's keep a close watch on this.
head and shoulder breakdown in USDCADThis is a head and shoulder reversal on the hourly chart. Classic pattern. The 50 ma has also just crossed below the 200 ma and the prices seem to have broken below the flag which was being formed. The oscillators are near the mean which increase the probability of a downside thrust in the pair.
dxy long + then shortTrade Idea: long + short
📍 Entry: 🎯 Target green ⛔ Stop Loss red : (MARKED IN CHART)
💡 RISK REWARD 1 : 2, 1:3
💰 Risk 1% of your trading capital.
⚠️ Markets can be unpredictable; research before trading.Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Elliott Wave analysis and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.Informational onLY !!!!AND IF YOU WANT TO LEARN IT W
Key Dollar resistance zoneThis is a very important dollar index level, if this were to hold up then we can get some more rally in the gold and the other metals. Equities as well. But if dollar breaks through this level then we will possibly get some sharp corrections in the commodities and the equities as well. The bet still will be that the level will hold up, but the oscillators are bouncing from the oversold levels hence it could do some time correction before the next leg of fall.
#EURUSD. 🔴 M15. Short. (#EuroUSDollar).
The Entry Price is higher than the Market Opening Price.(✔️)
M15 imbalance on the potential of the H1 range. (✔️)
Below the level of the First Seller of stock options. (⚠️)
ps since the price is in search of a new range, we can try to sell from this reversal structure in order to pick up the corrective movement. But perhaps there will be a change of trend in this place. We'll see.
According to my entry point, the first target has already worked out, and now the imbalance is retested.
entry: 1.10066 (on imbalance test)
stop: 1.10322
tp-1: 1.09799
tp-2: 1.09276
Dollar index bullish breakout Dollar index saw a sharp rally previous week and we saw some retracement in the index on friday, however we are now seeing another round of rally and this time is looks like a consolidation pattern is being formed and the breakout from the pattern will be bearish for bullion and even equities. The index took support from the pivot level and then is bouncing up which confirms the trend more. There is likely to be more pressure if we see the breakout sustain, this is also coming after a significant rate hike by the ECB last week which was a bit of a surprise. Despite that the pound did not gain significantly against the dollar which means the market participants are anticipating the fed to also raise the rates in line with the ECB decision. Overall it will be interesting to see if the index holds up above these levels. If it does so for a period of time a sharp rally cannot be ruled out. Any forex pair will have to be traded keeping the same in mind.
DXY Doller is very important levelNow currently the doller is very importan level, this chart is Doller inverted chart.
Year 1989, 1999, and 2016 multiple time this level is veryimportant resistant level, in the current market secnerio if the rate hike it is possible to breakout of doller price
In higher the doller price not good for emerging market like India
the price action show that on last and final move is pending, but other major index chart not show any bearsh signal.
This post is only for education purpose