Dollar Index will be bowled outDollar Index (M) chart showing distribution pattern with max support at 100-102 range. Expecting DXY to test 88 in next 8 to 15 months. Above 108 on monthly closing will reverse our projection. (High made 107)
Dollarindex
Trend is about to get strongerChart is self explanatory.
Ideal scenario will be a day or two consolidation at current levels which will make the momentum oscillator cool off to 78-82 range.
Post this consolidation, we may see the explosive move.
And everyone knows, an explosive move in this index means a lot for riskier asset classes.
Savndhan Rahein Surakshit Rahein
DOLLAR INDEXHello & welcome to this analysis
In the daily time frame it has now come to a falling trendline resistance which has also activated a Bearish Harmonic Reciprocal ABCD pattern. Coincidentally, the swing low was also formed with a Bullish Harmonic ABCD pattern.
A retracement from here could take it to 102.75 and below that 102.15. The pattern would be considered negated above 103.90
Dollar Index Bullish signals - SOONAlthough, jumping a bit earlier, Dollar Index seems readying itself to JUMP UP. COT reports are STARTING to Show Bullish Signs. Daily Momentum has turned UP. BUT weekly momentum is yet to turn Up. Look for BULLISH SIGNS on Lower Time frames in Coming Weeks and Months. (Although, i will more comfortable if it Dips to one more Low on Weekly and then Goes up. But that is not an essential requirement)
Key Dollar resistance zoneThis is a very important dollar index level, if this were to hold up then we can get some more rally in the gold and the other metals. Equities as well. But if dollar breaks through this level then we will possibly get some sharp corrections in the commodities and the equities as well. The bet still will be that the level will hold up, but the oscillators are bouncing from the oversold levels hence it could do some time correction before the next leg of fall.
Dollar index bullish breakout Dollar index saw a sharp rally previous week and we saw some retracement in the index on friday, however we are now seeing another round of rally and this time is looks like a consolidation pattern is being formed and the breakout from the pattern will be bearish for bullion and even equities. The index took support from the pivot level and then is bouncing up which confirms the trend more. There is likely to be more pressure if we see the breakout sustain, this is also coming after a significant rate hike by the ECB last week which was a bit of a surprise. Despite that the pound did not gain significantly against the dollar which means the market participants are anticipating the fed to also raise the rates in line with the ECB decision. Overall it will be interesting to see if the index holds up above these levels. If it does so for a period of time a sharp rally cannot be ruled out. Any forex pair will have to be traded keeping the same in mind.
IS DOLLAR (DXY) ABOUT TO CRASH?? | WEEKLY DOLLAR UPDATE DXY or the Dollar Index, the index to measure the strength of Dollar is considered to be the king of all charts, as most of the financial instruments are very much correlated to the DXY.
Not just forex markets but stocks, cryptos and even commodities are correlated to the Dollar.
If DXY Falls-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD rises. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD falls.
Similarly, If DXY Rises-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD falls. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD rises.
So it becomes very important for any trader either Technical, Or Fundamental to keep a close eye on the DXY.
If DXY is in uptrend, the above mentioned instruments may be in downtrend. Conversely, if DXY is in downtrend, others may be in uptrend.
This is a general observation and not an exact rule to be followed. Exceptions are always there as Financial Markets are impacted by a number of factors.
I will be posting a detailed post about why DXY is so important for any trader, so keep following.
BELOW IS THE ANALYSIS
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Weekly support range= 101.6-100.8
On WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ,price is sitting at support area. Untill and unless the support is not broken, there are chances that price might reverse and bounce from support.
However, if weekly price closes below the support, that can lead to a further long term downtrend in Dollar.
Also, price action is forming a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Once, weekly candle closes below the support range, the pattern is completed and activated. That may signify a long term downtrend in Dollar which means long term uptrend in STOCKS, CRYPTOS , PRECIOUS METALS, and some FOREXpairs.
However, further confirmations are also required and just one weekly candle closing below the support is not enough.
DAILY ANALYSIS
The price is making continuous LOWER HIGHS to the support signifying that any bounce from the support is not strong enough and is hence rejected by sellers.
Lower highs into the support area is considered to be Bearish and increases the probability of breakdown of support.
However, since the price is sitting at the confluence of Daily plus Weekly support, a daily close would not be sufficient and a weekly close is required.
On the flip side, we cannot ignore that price is at Support and may bounce from here as well. If price bounces and make a HIGHER HIGH, then chances of breakdown of support will get drastically low and infact a new uptrend may begin in DXY or the Dollar index (but after some further confirmations)
CONCLUSION
1. If Daily plus weekly candle closes below 100.8- BEARISH
2. If Daily candle closes above 102.5, that would mark a Higher High and an uptrend may begin- BULLISH
3. As long as price is trading between 100.8-102.5- SIDEWAYS/NEUTRAL
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE
Bounce Possible, RR 1:4.6Price is near support and previously we took support in this zone so expecting bounce from this zone. keep in radar.
Buy Dollar and Dollar pairsDollar index has taken good support at previous support area indicating more upside. aving eurusd below resistance area it makes safe to buy Dollar long trades now
Buy Dollars at Support nowDollar is at previous support from where it rallied higher and its clear re test of Dollar now. I expect dollar to bounce from here since US equity started profit booking and its correction more now. And higher Crude means additional need for dollars to buy Oil each day. still now majority of countries still use dollars to buy oil right ?
USD prediction based on important s/r levels.FX:USDOLLAR USD can move upwards if sustains above 102.400 level, currently t important monthly weekly support zone and showing rejection for further fall.
Dollar Index - Trend is Reversed ?Hello Friends,
Here, I have plotted Dollar Index in daily time frame with RSI . Apart from I have drawn sliding parallel channel. Since couple of days, Dollar Index is taking support at 101.33 level. Here, I have observed sign of trend reversal.
Anyone can take long position in all forex major currency pairs with own risk management methods.
Dollar Index could see 103.90 and 104.35 before friday EODAs expected Fed Data and Meeting has triggered Sell in equity and Buy in Dollar pairs with Sell in Euro pairs as immediate knee jerk reaction for time being. with this we can easily see dollar index at 103.90 and 104.35 before next week !
DXY DowntrendOn Weekly Basis:
Dollar Index (DXY) reversed from high of 114.77 There is a support at 102 on weekly charts. DXY entered into bear cycle as there is a Death Cross where 50 DMA crossed over 200 DMA downwards. One can be cautious and it may provide a good chance of pullback in bear cycle. It is a sell from long term point of view. There is a death cross over at 200 DMA, happened on 1st week of January, 2023. It is reaching an oversold position. It may pullback to 104.50 but charts look very pessimistic.
Warning and Disclaimer:
Above prediction should not be taken as financial advise, it is a personal opinion.
Consult your financial advisor.
Investment is subject to market risks.
Past performance is not the guarantee for future performance.
It is for educational purpose only.
Ultra-tech rallies as NIfty infra started to moveNSE:ULTRACEMCO
Ultra tech can be a leader in the Nifty Infra rally So eyes are on it.
Dollar Index - The Last PushDXY has a 5 wave decline on Weekly charts & Wave 5 have formed a ending diagonal today's push could mean end of Wave A so now a 3 wave or 7 wave pullback can take us back to 110 levels confirmation will be Weekly close above 105.35 (40 WEMA Red Line) & this bounce in $ should see some selloff in Commodity & Equity.
Dollar index chartDollar index chart in daily time frame
It has the potential to reach the specified areas and you can use this chart in your personal transactions.
BTCUSD SELL IDEALook for occasional retest and confirmation, trade is simple
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dollar is ready to shoot upTVC:DXY has taken weekly support which is strong and is in parallel channel, it can give a parallel channel breakout and reach first target zone in coming week or 2.
Reason for why should you watch Hindalco !!Hindalco has given a breakout today & it's also at a good level to catch
Why Hindalco is a Buy? NSE:HINDALCO
Reason for Buy:-You can see metals are Inversely Proportional to Autos.
Even as of now, metals are standing stronger when volatility comes in the market.
This gives the Idea that the demand for metals is more than the supply, making the price move Higher.
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Reason for why should you watch TCS !!TCS has given a breakout today & it's also at a good level to catch
Why TCS over all other IT Stocks NSE:TCS
Reason: Strength
When all others were in sell-off facing selling Pressure. It was the only standing man. Where the candles were forming was quite demanding.
Similarly, I've told some stocks in the Nifty Infra setup NSE:ULTRACEMCO NSE:GRASIM
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