Dollarindex
Inverse 🥶If Dxy sustain on 103 ( marked in the chart) then a upside momentum to (110 feb 2024)--(115 sep 2024) is possible, which could impact the US stock market and in some cases Indian market too .
Disclaimer :
It's a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
If there is a global party on...India's gonna lead!As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared.
Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty just took off to the skies.
As global uncertainity eases, India stands to benefit the most over the next few decades when we rise up the ranks as a global economic superpower.
DOLLAR INDEX --BEARISH?As Per daily Price Action Dollar Index Broke Lower Side Range 105 level and Sustain Below and Also Price Cross below 50 Ema And RSI Also Cross Below 40 Which Is not Good Sign For Index . We Can See Further Down move In Dollar Index.
Wait For Decent bounce In 1 hour Time Frame It Could Be Good Lower Side positional trade ..
Stop loss :- Above 106 Level
Target:- 104.193
Please consult your financial advisor before investing
All research is for educational purposes only.
Implications of small changes in US Bond Yields and USDINR As US Yields cool off a tad bit, it results into Dollar index cooling and Rupee strengthening. Our Forex Reserves increased, our yields fell and our benchmark equity indices soared. India's maiden 50 year bond issue was oversubscribed and that shows how much interest and confidence there is about India over the coming few decades.
India's largest Festival season - Diwali is on and that is adding to the positive mood and momentum.
Technicals also seem to be changing from sell to buy - but it is early days yet.
So the script works just fine in these conditions as in all other ones. If market makes a new low as compared to previous candle, it buys one unit, thereby effectively pulling the average cost down.
USDINR - all time highs will be taken out in November?USD is making some serious inroads. INR trailing behind unable to maintain the equilibrium.
83.4210 is the current ATH. Today we went up to 83.3010. TVC:DXY at 107.
Continued FII selling will only add fuel to the fire. When the Indian media houses are gung-ho about the decadal that belongs to India & its growth story - the people outside are not that interested.
TVC:US30Y quoting 4.945% looks exciting from a debt perspective !
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A rising USDINR means the INR is getting devalued. Calendar year 2022 saw an erosion of 11.07%, YTD is only 0.61% - will the rising US yield + war in middle east further erode the Indian Rupee??
Trend is about to get strongerChart is self explanatory.
Ideal scenario will be a day or two consolidation at current levels which will make the momentum oscillator cool off to 78-82 range.
Post this consolidation, we may see the explosive move.
And everyone knows, an explosive move in this index means a lot for riskier asset classes.
Savndhan Rahein Surakshit Rahein
DOLLAR INDEXHello & welcome to this analysis
In the daily time frame it has now come to a falling trendline resistance which has also activated a Bearish Harmonic Reciprocal ABCD pattern. Coincidentally, the swing low was also formed with a Bullish Harmonic ABCD pattern.
A retracement from here could take it to 102.75 and below that 102.15. The pattern would be considered negated above 103.90
Dollar Index Bullish signals - SOONAlthough, jumping a bit earlier, Dollar Index seems readying itself to JUMP UP. COT reports are STARTING to Show Bullish Signs. Daily Momentum has turned UP. BUT weekly momentum is yet to turn Up. Look for BULLISH SIGNS on Lower Time frames in Coming Weeks and Months. (Although, i will more comfortable if it Dips to one more Low on Weekly and then Goes up. But that is not an essential requirement)
Key Dollar resistance zoneThis is a very important dollar index level, if this were to hold up then we can get some more rally in the gold and the other metals. Equities as well. But if dollar breaks through this level then we will possibly get some sharp corrections in the commodities and the equities as well. The bet still will be that the level will hold up, but the oscillators are bouncing from the oversold levels hence it could do some time correction before the next leg of fall.
Dollar index bullish breakout Dollar index saw a sharp rally previous week and we saw some retracement in the index on friday, however we are now seeing another round of rally and this time is looks like a consolidation pattern is being formed and the breakout from the pattern will be bearish for bullion and even equities. The index took support from the pivot level and then is bouncing up which confirms the trend more. There is likely to be more pressure if we see the breakout sustain, this is also coming after a significant rate hike by the ECB last week which was a bit of a surprise. Despite that the pound did not gain significantly against the dollar which means the market participants are anticipating the fed to also raise the rates in line with the ECB decision. Overall it will be interesting to see if the index holds up above these levels. If it does so for a period of time a sharp rally cannot be ruled out. Any forex pair will have to be traded keeping the same in mind.
IS DOLLAR (DXY) ABOUT TO CRASH?? | WEEKLY DOLLAR UPDATE DXY or the Dollar Index, the index to measure the strength of Dollar is considered to be the king of all charts, as most of the financial instruments are very much correlated to the DXY.
Not just forex markets but stocks, cryptos and even commodities are correlated to the Dollar.
If DXY Falls-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD rises. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD falls.
Similarly, If DXY Rises-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD falls. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD rises.
So it becomes very important for any trader either Technical, Or Fundamental to keep a close eye on the DXY.
If DXY is in uptrend, the above mentioned instruments may be in downtrend. Conversely, if DXY is in downtrend, others may be in uptrend.
This is a general observation and not an exact rule to be followed. Exceptions are always there as Financial Markets are impacted by a number of factors.
I will be posting a detailed post about why DXY is so important for any trader, so keep following.
BELOW IS THE ANALYSIS
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Weekly support range= 101.6-100.8
On WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ,price is sitting at support area. Untill and unless the support is not broken, there are chances that price might reverse and bounce from support.
However, if weekly price closes below the support, that can lead to a further long term downtrend in Dollar.
Also, price action is forming a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Once, weekly candle closes below the support range, the pattern is completed and activated. That may signify a long term downtrend in Dollar which means long term uptrend in STOCKS, CRYPTOS , PRECIOUS METALS, and some FOREXpairs.
However, further confirmations are also required and just one weekly candle closing below the support is not enough.
DAILY ANALYSIS
The price is making continuous LOWER HIGHS to the support signifying that any bounce from the support is not strong enough and is hence rejected by sellers.
Lower highs into the support area is considered to be Bearish and increases the probability of breakdown of support.
However, since the price is sitting at the confluence of Daily plus Weekly support, a daily close would not be sufficient and a weekly close is required.
On the flip side, we cannot ignore that price is at Support and may bounce from here as well. If price bounces and make a HIGHER HIGH, then chances of breakdown of support will get drastically low and infact a new uptrend may begin in DXY or the Dollar index (but after some further confirmations)
CONCLUSION
1. If Daily plus weekly candle closes below 100.8- BEARISH
2. If Daily candle closes above 102.5, that would mark a Higher High and an uptrend may begin- BULLISH
3. As long as price is trading between 100.8-102.5- SIDEWAYS/NEUTRAL
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE
Buy Dollars at Support nowDollar is at previous support from where it rallied higher and its clear re test of Dollar now. I expect dollar to bounce from here since US equity started profit booking and its correction more now. And higher Crude means additional need for dollars to buy Oil each day. still now majority of countries still use dollars to buy oil right ?
Dollar Index - Trend is Reversed ?Hello Friends,
Here, I have plotted Dollar Index in daily time frame with RSI . Apart from I have drawn sliding parallel channel. Since couple of days, Dollar Index is taking support at 101.33 level. Here, I have observed sign of trend reversal.
Anyone can take long position in all forex major currency pairs with own risk management methods.