Although, jumping a bit earlier, Dollar Index seems readying itself to JUMP UP. COT reports are STARTING to Show Bullish Signs. Daily Momentum has turned UP. BUT weekly momentum is yet to turn Up. Look for BULLISH SIGNS on Lower Time frames in Coming Weeks and Months. (Although, i will more comfortable if it Dips to one more Low on Weekly and then Goes up. But...
Crude Oil. Bullish Case :
COT reports JUST Started turning Bullish BUT yet not convincing.
Daily and Weekly Momentum turning Bullish.
Now if we get a SOLID WEEKLY close above the falling trendline (around 73.75), it could well touch 90 in coming weeks
COT reports slowly edging in bullish territory (May Still take a week or two).
Daily Momentum also trying to turn UP.
Price taking support at 200 Weeks MA.
I will be looking for Buying Opportunities in Copper , in coming Weeks/Months.
But a bit of Patience is the Key Here
With Bearish COT Reports AND Weekly momentum down - Gold can be a short between 2030 to 2050 with a stop- of 2091 and a target of 1830-1875. My only concern is positive Daily Momentum. So strictly Stoploss Please
Please Read my commentary on Chart
Natural Gas - With Bullish COT repots, NG has now the potential to touch 4.4 in coming weeks and months. I will be looking for "Buying Opportunities" on 240/60 Mins TF
If Daily closes above 3.1 (On Friday, it just missed that) it will give additional strength to this view
Crude Oil. Bearish Case :-
Narrow Weekly Bar. Weekly MA Resistance. Daily RSI Resistance Zone. Weekly TL Resistance
Bullish Case :
COT reports JUST Started turning Bullish. Bullish Daily and Weekly Momentum.
So overall scenario is still confusing.
Ideal case will be to attempt ONE more Leg down and then UP. But, that is not a necessity. So waiting for a concrete...
IN spite of Bullish COT Reports - Copper Still seems to be working to kick out the last bear.
While Weekly Momentum is up and Daily Down, Looks like it still has one or two legs down before it moves up.
3 to 3.1 Area Looks interesting. Watch Out for it.
Have Patience and keep a Watch on Daily Momentum
Gold is Giving Contradicting Signals at The Moment :
Bullish Case :
1. COT Reports are Bullish
2. Weekly Momentum is Still Bullish
Bearish Case :
1. Decline on Daily Chart Looks 5 Wave
2. Daily Momentum is Still Bearish
What to do then?
1. On Weekly Charts 1650-1675 Area is Very Crucial- It has horizontal solid Support Line, My Channel Bottom and 200 week MA...
Gold is Approaching Critical Area of ABC wave Correction AND Channel Support. This is around 1640-1670 Zone. With COT Reports Turning Bullish, it can be very interesting area for Longs in Next 2-4 Weeks
Commentary On Chart
Silver With Declining Weekly Volumes / Bullish COT Reports / Sweet Channel and Horizontal Support ALL nicely lining up now. It is ready for TURNING UP ON WEEKLY charts.
But as Always COT Reports and Weekly Charts Takes Time to Turn. I am taking that as 2-4 Weeks Time. Keep an Eye on Daily/240 Mins Momentum Turning UP.