Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause”
Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard.
The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”.
Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD.
The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation.
Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945.
The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
DXY
DXY Doller is very important levelNow currently the doller is very importan level, this chart is Doller inverted chart.
Year 1989, 1999, and 2016 multiple time this level is veryimportant resistant level, in the current market secnerio if the rate hike it is possible to breakout of doller price
In higher the doller price not good for emerging market like India
the price action show that on last and final move is pending, but other major index chart not show any bearsh signal.
This post is only for education purpose
DXYthe price was consolidating in the weekly support zone for a period of time and during last week it broke the range by providing a big bullish candles in daily . since it broke the resistance now it becomes support so a retest or pullback to the zone would be amazing to look for the entries to get back in a trade
What are they hiding in COT Report ?If you are following CFTC COT report for commodity you already knows that the CFTC is not sharing the COT report timely from last 5 Weeks ,
I tried to analyze the Last three week COT report on GOLD published by CFTC.
On 24/1/2023 the COT showing bullish sentiments as they adding in Longs and Covering there Short and we have seen sideways (You can see the Green colored path) move after that week .
On 31/01/2023 the COT report showing Mixed view as smart Money managers were adding money in Long and Short both and we have seen some bullish moment (You can see the blue colored path) and then bearish move from Gold.
In Latest COT report Published on 07/02/2023 it was very clear that they covered there long positions due to which that COT was totally bearish and we have seen a big decline after that Data (You can see the Red colored path) .
Still we don't have latest COT report report and we have to rely only on this old data, rest you know what they hiding and why they are not able to publish the COT report timely as this data is very useful for retail trader to get some insight of smart money managers.
HIGHER HIGH HIGHER LOWDXY is making higher high and higher low on monthly chart. It has bounced exactly from last swing resistance. If it holds 102 on monthly closing basis then 120-122 is feasible in coming 6-9 months. Not good for equity and commodities. Pressure will be on countries highly dependent on import. Break of Feb month's high will be first confirmation that bottom in DXY has been formed.
AUDUSD SELL POSSIBILITY 15.02.23 UPDATELooking for possible selling continuation on the pair to retest the previous support lower.
This will as well be as a target point of the target for the bearish flag.
A 2hr break below the support at 0.68610 would be a good confirmation on the sell bias of the pair and act as an entry point of the trade
A break and close above the resistance at 0.69970 might signal a push higher and will invalidate the sell bias