Economic Cycles
HDFC bank breaking a major resistance Bank Nifty has underperformed this year compared to benchmark nifty largely due to NIM. Also it is expected that the RBI may cut rate before their US counterpart . In such a scenario HDFC is a good value bet plus it is about to test a major trendline giving an opportunity to make an ideal entry. However it may take a month or so to see some major moves. Upcoming gov. policy may also trigger big moves.
BLS classical retracement in a bull run.The stock has had many bull rallies in the past and has been a multibagger. Despite the significant price movement, the stock is not considered inflated, as the fundamentals have kept pace with the increasing price demand. Historically, the stock moves in cycles of rallies and consolidations, and it is currently transitioning from a consolidation phase to a rally phase.
RBLBANK changing trend.The stock is showing a pattern of change in trend, with a consistent upward movement characterized by traditional higher highs and higher lows. Compared to the previous movement dynamics, it now exhibits bullish behavior.
Basis of Analysis:
1. EMA Support Seeking (35 EMA):** The stock is finding support at the 35 EMA, indicating a significant level for the monthly timeframe.
2. Change in Market Structure:** There is a clear shift in the market structure from lower lows and lower highs to higher highs and higher lows.
3. Constant Volume Decline:** Typically, after a certain period of volume decline, there is an outburst of volume, which may signal a strong bullish movement.
Therefore, these factors suggest a potential bullish movement in the near future.
BAJAJHIND - Possible 12-Year Breakout?Bajajhind (Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Ltd) closed yesterday at 36.25, bringing it close to the critical level of 39. A monthly close above 39 could potentially push the stock to 50 or even 58 levels. This stock attempted to break past 39 in February 2024 but failed to close above it. Since then, it has been trading within the range of 26.80 - 40.50.
Keep an eye on volumes and the monthly close for confirmation of this breakout. While technical indicators look promising, always conduct your own research and consider fundamental factors before making any investment decisions.
HIndustan copper 2 years cup breakoutHindustan copper has broke out cup pattern neck line 198, which gives first target of 320.
On the bigger time frame it will completing a cup or box pattern of more than 11 year.
If it manages to close above 320 then it will be breaking its 11 year high, which can give target of 600.
This is for educational purpose.
Dabur Long Term TargetsThis is a Weekly chart. Here are some observations:
1. Price has been in a downtrend since Oct 2021 forming a large cup potentially finishing around Jun 2025 with neckline at ₹650
2. The red trendline still has to be broken to officially get into the uptrend
3. The recent green trendline has been breached following the healthy Quarterly results posted yesterday
4. Price has touched levels of 500 multiple times suggesting it to be a strong support zone
5. Multiple resistance levels on the way up particularly at 565, 600 and 650. All of them can be used as short term targets as well
6. Final target at 800 based on the cup (500 to 650)
Growth Drivers:
1. Economy has faced high inflation in recent times reflecting in the downtrend of stock performance
2. Consumer companies are reporting rural uptick in sales
3. Global consensus of rate cuts in 2024/2025
4. India’s growing population and per capita income
Verdict:
Considering both the macroeconomic factors and the fundamental/technical combination of Dabur, it seems like it has bottomed out at around 500 and is ready for the uptrend likely to hit ₹800 in the coming years. A handle formation is likely at ₹650, so the earnings have to be tracked closely. Happy trading!
Historical Impact of Fed Interest Rates on Dow JonesThe current market cycle looks eerily similar to the 2005 - 2010 era.
Dow started going up after the last rate hike in expectation of a rate cut and eventually peaked around the time the cut started i.e. Sep 2007.
Very similar behaviour is evident in current cycle where market has been rising since the last rate hike. If the Fed cut is expected in June 2024, then there is still some upmove left, but we are close to the top.
P.S.: 1: Numbers mentioned are the rates after the said action.
2: Similar price action was developing in 2015-2020 period, however, it can't be considered as a valid reference on account of COVID crash.
SHIB MEME RESTING SHIB: Meme Token Breakout Potential
The popular meme token SHIB has seen a significant spike in interest over the past 10 days, with its price rallying alongside the increased attention. Currently, SHIB is resting on the 10MA, which could act as a support level and bounce off.
Technical Analysis:
- The recent price action has formed a bullish flag pattern, which is a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential breakout in the direction of the previous trend.
- Trading volumes have decreased significantly after the initial spike.
Risks:
- SHIB is a highly volatile meme token, and its price movements can be unpredictable and influenced by social media trends.
PVRINOX Going to Breakout, All details sharedI have been observing an increasing momentum in PVR INOX and Along with this increasing momentum PVR INOX has also closed above a crucial resistance on Thursday, breaking out of a range between 1350 and 1400. This stock has been in this range for a period of 1 month, therefore its breakout indicates a good rally. Defintely buy PVRINOX for short term move.
Entry Price 1400
Stoploss 1380
Target 1480
Happy Trading
Yamini Prabu
NSE, NISM Certified TA
Independent Trader and Trainer