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BPCL : Trading the Confluence of Price Action & Macro TailwindsThe stock has been consolidating within a defined range over the past few weeks and has recently started forming a solid base. While the breakout volume isn’t a classic “God-candle,” price action continues to hold firmly above key moving averages, which is a constructive sign. That said, the price is somewhat extended from the EMAs, increasing the probability of a mean-reversion move. Hence, the stop loss needs to be placed wider rather than just below the basing structure.
The conviction behind this trade comes largely from the current Goldilocks macro environment we’re witnessing in early 2026. With global crude prices remaining comfortably low, BPCL is benefiting from strong marketing margins across petrol and diesel, supporting near-term earnings visibility.
On the fundamental side, a major catalyst is the Government’s LPG compensation package. BPCL is expected to receive a significant share of the ₹30,000 crore payout allocated to OMCs, which materially improves cash flows in H2 FY26. This inflow also acts as a strong deleveraging trigger, further strengthening an already improving balance sheet that has seen a steady decline in debt-equity levels over recent quarters.
So took this position with 1% risk on the net capital.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
GIFTNIFTY IntraSwing Levels For 02nd JAN 2026🚀Follow & Calculate Premium with NIFTY Post for NF Trading
💥Level Interpretation / description:
L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias.
L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt
L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above.
L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias.
L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt
HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone,
*** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature)
Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart
Color code Used:
Green =. Positive bias.
Red =. Negative bias.
RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change
/ CYCLE Change and Vice Versa.
Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working.
Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser.
Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
"As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's".
Do comment if Helpful .
Do Comment for In depth Analysis.
❇️ Follow notification about periodical View
💥 Do Comment for Stock WEEKLY Level Analysis.🚀
CONCOR – 1D | 10-Year Support & Trendline BreakoutCompany Intro:
Container Corporation of India Ltd (CONCOR) is a Navratna PSU and India’s largest integrated logistics company, operating inland container depots (ICDs), container freight stations (CFS), and rail-based logistics services. It plays a key role in India’s EXIM trade and domestic freight movement.
Technical View (Daily Chart):
CONCOR has broken out above a 10-year long-term support trendline, indicating a structural trend reversal, The stock has given a strong close near ₹525, confirming bullish intent and acceptance above the breakout zone.
Levels to Watch:
CMP: ₹523
Immediate Resistance / Target: ₹600
Breakout Confirmation Level: ₹525 (strong close above this keeps momentum positive)
Immediate Support: ₹480
Major Support: ₹446
As long as the stock holds above ₹480, the trend remains positive with a higher probability of moving towards ₹600 in the near term.
Positive Triggers
Government’s continued push for rail-led logistics, DFC (Dedicated Freight Corridor) and multimodal transport benefits CONCOR directly.
Volume recovery in EXIM and domestic logistics improves revenue visibility.
PSU logistics stocks are seeing renewed investor interest due to valuation comfort and long-term infrastructure growth.
For analysis of any stock, feel free to comment the stock name below.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market investments are subject to risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses arising from the use of this information.
LongKey Points About Your Breakout Strategy
Identify breakouts using recent pivot highs and lows.
Clear entry, stop-loss, and target levels from the indicator.
Trade only when price breaks support or resistance.
Targets set using risk-reward from recent highs/lows.
Capture momentum while managing risk with stop-losses.
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Essential Disclaimer:
For educational purposes only; not financial advice.
Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor.
All trading outcomes are your responsibility; no legal liability on my part
Kotak Mahindra Bank - Bulls Wish Happy 2026 Ahead!!!Kotak Mahindra Bank after 4 years of tight consolidation , has given a Beautiful 2025 Yearly Breakout!!!
It is trading inside a expanding ascending channel pattern from 2014 till now ....taking support and resistance at respective channel lines( shown below- 6month timeframe chart )
Chances are less for a down move after this clean yearly breakout... .Breaking 2059.2 will be a warning sign and possibly delay the upmove...(not for long term investors....)
Monthly time frame chart view below-
For Long term Investors , Monthly breakdown out of the channel with good volume support would make the SL.
Target levels mentioned for long term ones.
With the Stock split on Jan 14, 2026, Kotak bank will see high retail participation and higher volumes!!!
Anyway , Charts indicating a bulls eye on Kotak Mahindra Bank in 2026 and future!!!
Just Sharing my View...not a tip nor advice!!!
Wishing you all a very HAPPY & Prosperous NEWYEAR 2026!!!!
Thank you,
mmjimm!!
NIFTY Set to Sign Off 2025 Quietly—Could 2026 Bring a Rally?As we enter the last week of 2025 and approach the first week of 2026, Nifty is doing something familiar—consolidating in a tight range.
Everything looks calm at first glance: volatility is very low (India VIX at 9.15), trading volumes are light, and price changes are small. But history shows that such calm often comes before a big move.
◉ What it means actually?
● Nifty near lifetime highs, but breadth remains weak
● Low volatility → calm market, but risk of sudden moves
● Traders aren’t chasing the market, they’re waiting for a trigger rather than pushing prices higher.
◉ Technical View
● From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to trade within a rising wedge pattern, which carries bearish implications in the short term.
● Looking at the broader structure, a cup-and-handle pattern is forming, typically pointing to a potential upside move once the neckline is decisively breached.
◉ Important Levels to Watch
● Immediate Resistance: 26,100 - 26,200
● Immediate Support: 25,900 - 26,000
Strong breakout or breakdown from here will decide the next big leg.
◉ Looking Ahead
As 2026 begins, markets will closely track:
● FOMC minutes, which could influence global rate expectations.
● Rupee movement and FII flows, key drivers of short-term sentiment.
◉ Strategy Insight
Until fresh catalysts emerge, markets may stay range-bound as they digest year-end positioning. With volatility compressed, stock-specific strategies and relative-strength setups may offer better opportunities than broad index trades.
Volume building to go longTimeframe: Daily
Trend: Uptrend
Structure:
• Support: 560
• Resistance: 625,645
• Key Level: 607
View:
If Price holding above 607 level. both targets are achievable
Target1: 625
Target 2: 645
Risk Note:
Invalidation below 560.
⚠️ Educational & analytical view only. No investment advice.
NMDC.. Can give breakout if moved out of this channell.MNDC is trading inside a channel as seen.. Tried to give breakout today but faced resistance at around 84.20..
Volume is building..
Need to hold above 84 for further movement.
If sustained then can go up to 90..
One can book profit at somewhere around 90 or trail the same..
Axis Bank — Positional Long Setup | Plan the Pullback🟢 Long Plan – Buy the Dip Zone
🛒 Entry Zones
Entry 1: around ₹1140
Entry 2: around ₹1132–₹1124 (deeper fill zone)
⛔ Stop Loss
Below ₹1124 (decisive breakdown = setup invalid)
🎯 Upside Targets
Target 1: Previous support retest near ₹1214
Target 2: Resistance retest around ₹1274
Target 3: Trail the position toward ₹1528 if momentum continues
I prefer partial booking + trailing SL as price moves higher.
Trade Logic: A positive Trend & Pulse on daily and weekly time frames + A strong Demand Zone with FII's Pending Orders.
Modern Insulators - Rounding Bottom PatternModern Insulator is heading towards a 100% gain. Factors:
1. Rounding Bottom Pattern on weekly time frame - look at last week's bullish candle
2. All Time High Breakout - ATH breakout from 2024 price, after so many rejections it has finally given a breakout
3. Company has shown growing revenue and profit trends, QoQ profits are increasing. 50% of revenue from exports.
4. Electrification of Indian Railways - Modern insulators is one of the largest supplier of insulators to railways.
Given the above, this stock looks strong!!
Keep following @Cleaneasycharts as we provide Right Stocks at Right Time at Right Price!!
Cheers!!
Strong bullishcase for NALCONational Aluminium Company Ltd | Weekly Elliott Wave Update
On the weekly timeframe, price has already exceeded the typical projection for Wave (5), confirming that the market is well into an ongoing impulsive phase, not a pending one.
Key structural observations:
Both Wave (2) and Wave (4) retraced close to 61.8%, indicating deep corrective behaviour earlier in the trend.
Despite these deep retracements, price has now surpassed the common Wave (5) target zone, strengthening the bullish case.
When earlier corrections are deep, the market often compensates by showing shallower retracements in the later part of the trend.
From an Elliott Wave guideline perspective, this opens up an important structural possibility:
The moves marked earlier as 1–2 and 3–4 may, in hindsight, evolve into a nested structure (1–2, 1–2),
Which would imply further impulsive extensions ahead, with Wave (3 of 3) and subsequent Wave (4 of 3) still to unfold.
However, such nesting cannot be labelled in advance and should only be confirmed as the structure reveals itself.
Conclusion:
The trend remains firmly bullish. Given the already-achieved Wave (5) extension and the history of deep corrections, the market may now progress with shallower pullbacks, while keeping open the possibility of structural reclassification as the advance matures.
This is a structural market study, not a trading recommendation.Follow me to get updates.Like this post if it helps you.
Best to exit this counterUPL CMP 772
Elliott- The entire rally post the 2020 correction is corrective in rally. The current rally is also corrective in nature. The stock has reached its previous highs and is a natural resistance. To me a fresh set of three wave correction should start from here. The correction should be deep.
Fib- the stock respecting zones drawn from top and bottom is another indication that the stock is going no where. In technical terms its moving symmetrically. Hence not good for investments.
Conclusion - this is an opportunity to exit this stock. The stock is not expanding and hence will not give any positive returns. Hence best to take a graceful exit.
Nifty Price Action Analysis for Jan 2026Date: 25-Dec-2025
Nifty seems to show strong signs of making a new lifetime high in Jan 2026. The 25940 to 25740 levels will prove if bulls are entering long positions or not. Wait for it to correct and enter only when sellers show signs of weakness.
Uptrend line projected shows the likely path Nifty will travel in Jan 2026.
Trade will SL of 50 points from entry. If all goes as planned Nifty should give us a close above 26120 by Jan end.
Word of caution: analysis becomes invalid if Nifty starts making LH (Lower Highs) below the uptrend line projected
Wishing you Merry Christmas and a Prosperous & Healthy New Year 2026
Happy Trading!
Bajaj auto in 2025 consolidated in a narrow range of 9500-7000 after making all time high at almost 13000 in sep 2024 .if start closing weekly strong candle above 9500 range high consider as a big breakout and opportunity to accumulate at retest /correction .for targets all time high .bullish view fails if weekly start closing below 8000 levels .
RECLTD | Calm before the storm?DISCLAIMER: This idea is NOT a trade recommendation but only my observation. Please take your trades based on your own analysis.
Points to note:
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1. Since Feb, the stock has been consolidating inside a mother candle.
2. There was breakdown of the mother in Aug, but no further selling, just consolidating inside that new candle again.
3. Finally, another breakdown this month, but there is a strong rejection of sellers, indicating a liquidity sweep.
4. The overall structure forms a Falling wedge.
5. Such large periods of consolidation can lead to a healthy move in coming months.
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Following trade: Entry - CMP, SL- 325, Tgts - 385, 425
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (M&MFSL)Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (MMFSL), a part of the Mahindra Group,is a NBFC primarily engaged in the business of financing purchase of new and pre-owned auto and utility vehicles, tractors, cars, commercial vehicles, construction equipment and SME Financing.
In the Indian stock market, there are approximately 288 non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) listed. Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. is among the top 10. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock reached a high of 316 and a low of 75, and the price recovered over the following three years (2023)after the pandemic.Approx 4X and now 5X.
As you all know, this is taken from a significant loss to high or high -to-low time cycle. The cycle used in this case was a 62-days/ 43 trading session cycle, which lasted for two months. But you will see that the maximum swings occur within 15 to 30 days in this type of chart. When you plot the time cycle on this chart, you'll understand that you've captured many highs and low with this floating method.You can use the Dow Theory; it works very well.
NMDC: Impulse Holds as Wave (4) Takes ShapeNMDC on the 1H timeframe is shaping up as a clean impulsive advance from the 72.2 lows. The structure from Wave (2) shows clear separation, strong momentum, and minimal overlap , all hallmarks of an impulse. The recent sharp push into 82.30 fits well as a completed Wave (3) , with internal subdivisions aligning cleanly.
Post the Wave (3) high, price has started to ease — without aggressive selling pressure . This keeps the door open for a healthy Wave (4) correction , ideally unfolding as a sideways or shallow pullback. The 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone (≈78.83–77.76) remains the ideal cooling area. As long as price holds above the Wave (1) high near 73.22 , the impulsive structure stays valid.
RSI behavior supports this view — momentum peaked during Wave (3) and is now cooling, consistent with a corrective pause rather than a trend reversal. A controlled Wave (4) would set the stage for a final Wave (5) advance , potentially pushing into the mid-80s before a higher-degree pause.
Key Levels to Watch
Support zone: 78.83 – 77.76
Invalidation: Below 73.22
Upside continuation: Post Wave (4) resolution
Bottom line:
Patience over prediction. If Wave (4) remains corrective and contained, Wave (5) remains the higher-probability path .
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
APOLLO: Structural Reversal from Key Support Zone🚀 Long Setup: NSE:APOLLO Micro Systems (APOLLO)
Trade Parameters
Entry Zone: ₹245.00 – ₹255.00 (Current breakout level)
Stop Loss (SL): ₹214.00 (Weekly close basis / below structural support)
Target 1: ₹300.00 (Psychological & Analyst Consensus)
Target 2: ₹355.00 (All-Time High retest)
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.8
Technical Analysis
Support Rebound: The stock has successfully defended the ₹210–₹220 horizontal support zone, which acted as a major resistance-turned-support from mid-2025.
Momentum Shift: Today's 5% Upper Circuit hit at ₹249.80, accompanied by a spike in volume, signals the end of a 3-month correction/accumulation phase.
Trend Confirmation: The price has reclaimed the 20-week EMA, shifting the medium-term bias back to bullish.
RSI Recovery: RSI is turning up from the 40-level floor, suggesting the "oversold" energy is being replaced by fresh buying interest.
Fundamental Driver
The technical move is backed by the company's Q2 FY26 performance (highest-ever quarterly income of ₹226 Cr) and a massive ₹1,500 Cr order book. The recent licensing for high-energy explosives provides the long-term thematic tailwind for the Aerospace & Defense sector.






















