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BankNifty -Tower Bottom Unveiled: Bulls Magical SpellWaveTalks - Market Whispers! Can You Hear Them?... August 13th: The Bulls' Last Stand As we approached August 13th, 2024, the market was rife with tension. With stops being hit left and right, I made it clear at 12:55 pm in the last post that the bulls weren’t giving up without a fight. It was a crucial moment—one where patience and strategy were key. The market flirted with disaster, yet I advised holding the line, suggesting that the critical level… would be our stronghold. August 14th: The Calm Before the Storm The following day was a test of nerves. The market kept everyone guessing, moving in unpredictable waves. But I didn’t waver. I updated my social media followers, pointing out that while the expected gap-up didn’t materialize, it was a blessing in disguise. Why? Because it set the stage for an even bigger opportunity. I highlighted that crossing 49,960 could trigger an upside move for safe traders , while risk-takers should stay alert as some kind of accumulation happening close to 49654. August 16th: The Magical Spell Unfolds Post-Independence Day, on August 16th, the market delivered a performance that was nothing short of magical. It was as if the entire week had been leading up to this moment. The day began with a gap-up ( Instead of green big candle it was gap up equivalent to bullish green tower required for Tower bottom patter with accumulation in between), and after briefly retracing to the 49,870s, Bank Nifty launched into a powerful rally, surging past 50,500. This move confirmed the formation of a Tower Bottom pattern—a bullish candlestick formation that signaled the beginning of a new uptrend- is it a new up trend or some relief to bulls, only time knows -what next? The Tower Bottom: A Bullish Reversal This Tower Bottom pattern wasn’t just any signal; it was the market’s way of announcing that the accumulation phase at 49,654 had reached its tipping point. With this pattern confirmed, the path to 50,800+ became clearer than ever. The market, as I’ve always said, is a battlefield where only the swift and the strategic survive. Those who heeded the call to cut losses quickly if the key levels broke were well-prepared for this bullish reversal. The Road Ahead: 50,800+ in Sight With the Tower Bottom pattern in play, Bank Nifty is now set on a course towards our first target of 50,800+. This move is a testament to the power of technical analysis, patience, and unwavering discipline. The market has shown its hand, and for those who were ready, the rewards are already being reaped. This was not just a trade—it was a lesson in precision, timing, and understanding the subtle cues of the market. The week may have been truncated, but the gains were anything but small. Keep your eyes on the prize as we approach our next milestone, for the journey is far from over. Regards WaveTalks
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by WaveTalks
5
RAILTEL - AS PER FIB RETRACEMENT, CORRECTION WAVE MIGHT BE OVERHi, This idea is about Railtel Corporation of India Ltd ABOUT THE COMPANY RailTel was incorporated in 2000, with the objective of creating nationwide broadband and VPN services, telecom, and multimedia network, to modernize the train control operation and safety system of Indian Railways. It is a "Miniratna" PSE of the Government of India. At present, RailTel's network passes through around 6,000 stations across the country, covering all major commercial centers TECHINCALS As per the price action, the first impulse wave took the price all the way from 337 to 615. THen the correction wave commenced which pulled back the price from 615 to 440 levels. The price point as per fib retracement is at the point of 50-61% which as per Elliot Wave theory should be the correction wave Next impulsive wave could start if the price aloses above 475 with volume support FUNDAMENTALS Market Cap ₹ 15,066 Cr. Current Price ₹ 469 High / Low ₹ 618 / 163 Stock P/E 56.4 Book Value ₹ 56.9 Dividend Yield 0.61 % ROCE 20.2 % ROE 15.2 % Face Value ₹ 10.0 Equity capital ₹ 321 Cr. No. Eq. Shares 32.1 EPS ₹ 7.99 Promoter holding 72.8 % Change in Prom Hold 0.00 % Chg in Prom Hold 3Yr 0.00 % Pledged percentage 0.00 % Market Cap to Sales 5.67 Sales growth 29.8 % PEG Ratio 3.81 EVEBITDA 27.9 Quick ratio 1.16 Trade receivables ₹ 1,268 Cr. Sales ₹ 2,658 Cr. Debt to equity 0.02 Price to book value 8.25 Free Cash Flow ₹ 347 Cr. CMP / FCF 75.8 Thanks, Stock-n-Shine
NSE:RAILTELLong
by Stock-n-Shine
#Nifty directions and levels for August 6th.Good morning, friends 🌞 Here are the directions and levels for August 6th. Market Overview The global market experienced a pullback, but sentiment remains bearish, and our local market also has the bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a gap-up, indicated by a 150-point positive start in GIFTNIFTY. Both Nifty and BankNifty are reflecting the same sentiment. Let's take a closer look: 1.Basic Structure: Nifty and BankNifty both fell drastically in the previous session. Whenever the market takes a sharp movement, it will take some consolidation afterward. How will it work in today's session? We can look at that. > As per the structure, there is no more pullback in this minor swing. So if the gap-up doesn’t sustain or if the initial market declines, we can expect minor consolidation between the previous low to 38% Fibonacci level to the upside. After that, if it breaks yesterday's low, then the correction will likely continue to the level of 23801. This is our basic structure. 2.Alternate View: The alternate view is similar to the consolidation, but this time we wouldn't expect a correction. Instead, we can expect pullback continuation if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level to the upside again. If it happens, we can expect the pullback target to the level of 50%. Once if it rejects there, then we can expect correction. Simply, it's also a range market variation. 3.Price Action Scenario: The third scenario is taken from the price action. If the initial market takes a solid pullback and closes above the 38% Fibonacci level, then it may continue further to the level of 61% with minor consolidation. Do you want to realize if it is progressing in this variation? Just observe if it consolidates around the immediate resistance level or if it forms an inside bar, then it may continue the rally. These are my expectations for today. In my personal opinion, if the market enters consolidation, trading will become more challenging. If you choose to enter, reduce your position size. However, if you have a clear direction, you can trade more effectively.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Banknifty directions and levels for August 6th.1.Basic Structure: As per the structure, there is no more pullback in this minor swing. So if the gap-up doesn’t sustain or if the initial market declines, we can expect minor consolidation between the previous low to 38% Fibonacci level to the upside. After that, if it breaks yesterday's low, then the correction will likely continue to the level of 49439. This is our basic structure. 2.Alternate View: The alternate view is similar to the consolidation, but this time we wouldn't expect a correction. Instead, we can expect pullback continuation if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level to the upside again. If it happens, we can expect the pullback target to the level of 50%. Once if it rejects there, then we can expect correction. Simply, it's also a range market variation. 3.Price Action Scenario: The third scenario is taken from the price action. If the initial market takes a solid pullback and closes above the 38% Fibonacci level, then it may continue further to the level of 61% with minor consolidation. Do you want to realize if it is progressing in this variation? Just observe if it consolidates around the immediate resistance level or if it forms an inside bar, then it may continue the rally. These are my expectations for today. In my personal opinion, if the market enters consolidation, trading will become more challenging. If you choose to enter, reduce your position size. However, if you have a clear direction, you can trade more effectively.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for the August 2nd week.Good evening, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for the second week of August: Global and Local Market Overview Last week, both global and local markets experienced significant volatility, closing with a negative candle. On the weekly chart, the market shows a moderately bullish trend, but the 1-hour chart suggests a bearish sentiment. For this week, I anticipate a moderately bearish trend. Let's delve into the details. Nifty: Current View: - Nifty has completed the 5 sub-waves within the 3rd wave extension. Following this, a three-wave corrective pattern is expected. - The declines over the past two days, along with negative global market closures on Friday, suggest a bearish start on Monday. - If the market opens negatively, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level should act as strong support. If support holds, a 38% pullback is likely. - This pullback could be the 2nd sub-wave of the correction. If the market rejects this pullback and breaks the previous low, the correction will likely continue, targeting levels around 24365 to 78%. Alternate View: The alternate variation is a bit more complicated, but I will try to explain it simply. - If the initial pullback breaks the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing, it could reach the 61% and 78% retracement levels. - Usually, the one and two formations are very difficult to predict in the Elliott Wave. - Because the 2nd wave targets allow 90% of the 1st wave. - So, I use a common Fibonacci method: whenever the market breaks the Fibonacci level of 38%, it most often reaches 61% to 78%. - After that pullback, if it sustains or breaks the fib level 78%, then it may continue the rally further to the level of 25143 to 25209 (extension variation). - Or if it faces rejection at either one of the resistance levels (61% or 78%), it could turn into a correction. - However, we could take additional confirmation for the reversal that if both the EMA 20 and the Fibonacci level of 38% in the minor swing break, we can expect a reversal.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Banknifty directions and levels for the August 2nd week.Bank Nifty: Current View: Structurally, it's a range market, because whenever the market enters into double and triple corrections, it forms huge ups and downs within the range. It's very difficult to predict the proper direction. However, my expectation is the same as for Nifty. Let's look at that. - If Monday's market opens negatively, it could find support around the 51020 level or the 78% Fibonacci retracement. - If this happens, we can expect a 23% to 38% pullback in the minor swing. It's a minor pullback only. - after that, if it is rejected there(23 or 38% in the minor swing), then the correction will continue if it breaks the previous low again. This is our first variation. Alternate View: - If the initial bounce breaks the Fibonacci level of 38% in the minor swing, it could reach the next target of 61% and 78%. These are usual range market targets. - After that it faces rejection there (around 61% or 78%), then the range market will likely continue. - However, we could use the same reversal confirmations here as well(.EMA 20 and the Fibonacci level of 38% breakout) - Alternatively, if it sustains or breaks the level of 78% on the upside, then the pullback will likely continue to the level of 52526 and 52694.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for August 5th.Good morning friends 🌞 Here are the directions and levels for August 5th. Market Overview Still the correction is continuing the Dow Jones chart, reflecting a bearish sentiment. Our local market also shares this sentiment. Therefore, today might see a significant gap down at the opening, as indicated by a 250-point negative start in GIFTNIFTY. There is still a tug-of-war between the Nifty and Bank Nifty charts. According to the wave structure, Nifty has a correctional structure, while Bank Nifty has a range-bound structure. >How does this affect the Nifty chart? It's just sentiment. If, during the correction, Bank Nifty supports it, then the correction would continue effectively. On the other hand, if it tries to maintain the range market, then it would take a pullback. If this happens, Nifty might undergo consolidation or possibly a pullback, because the banking sector has the major weightage in Nifty. However, I share the same direction for the Nifty and Bank Nifty charts. that, If the gap-down sustains (consolidates) or breaks the immediate support level with a solid candle, then the correction will likely continue further. This is our basic structure. Why Do I Mention the Pullback Levels of 23% and 38%? In this scenario, if the market takes a solid pullback in the initial phase, it could reach those levels. Usually, the trending market could take a maximum 23% to 38% pullback of the minor swing. but it won't sustain. If it rejects there, then the trend will continue once it breaks the previous bottom. That's why I mention those levels. What Should We Do If It Breaks the 38% Fibonacci Level? Whenever the trending market takes a pullback of more than 38%, the momentum will reduce a little bit. If this happens, we can expect some consolidation into a range market. and The range market targets are expected to be a minimum of 50%, 61%, and 78%. If you are an options buyer, the premium might not increase in this sentiment, so trade carefully.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
1
#Banknifty directions and levels for August 1stBankNifty BankNifty is still within a range. Both current and alternate views indicate a range market structure. Here’s the breakdown: Current view: If the gap-up sustains, we can expect a move to the 51825 level. If it breaks or consolidates, the pullback will likely continue to the swing high or channel top. If it doesn’t break the 51825 level, it will continue to range. Alternate view: If the market rejects or the gap-up doesn’t sustain, it will continue to range between 51825 (upside) and 51275 (downside). If it breaks the range in either direction, we can follow that trend.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for July 31st.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 31st: Global and Local Market Overview The global market is indicating a moderately bearish trend (based on the Dow Jones), while our local market indicates a moderately bullish trend. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly positive start because GiftNifty is indicating a 20-point positive move. Still, the Nifty and BankNifty are maintaining a difference. Let's look at that. Nifty: In the previous session, Nifty had a pullback, but by the end of the day, it closed like a range market. As per the wave, it's in the 4th wave, which is a consolidation wave. If the market opens neutral, the range market will likely continue until it breaks the previous high. There are two variations for the upside breakout, considering it could be the 5th wave. Current View: If the market breaks with a solid pullback or solid candle formation, the 5th wave may extend, reaching a minimum of 25067 to 25143. If the market doesn't have much volume or if it breaks the previous high with some rejection, we can expect a maximum of 25029 to 25067. Once the 5th wave completes, we can expect a correction. However, we should seek additional confirmation for the reversal. Use the Fibonacci retracement in the minor swing: if it breaks 38%, that's a sign of a minor reversal. Alternate View: The alternate view also considers a range market structure. If the market declines initially, it may take support around the Fibonacci level of 38%. If it finds support there, the range market will likely continue. The correction will occur only if it breaks the 38% level. If this happens, we can expect the next target to be 24646 to the Fibonacci level of 50%.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
2
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 31st.BankNifty: Current View: BankNifty's current view also indicates a range market. Usually, range market trading seems easy, but practically it's very difficult. If you want to enter a long position, you should wait for a breakout at the level of 51607. If it breaks, we can expect 51836 to the Fibonacci level of 78%, meaning the market will continue the channel pattern. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks the channel bottom, we can expect a correction to the level of 51087. Structurally, this is a minor support. If it consolidates around there, we can expect the correction to continue if it breaks. On the other hand, if it rejects sharply, we can expect a 38% to 61% pullback in the minor swing.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty Direction's and levels for July 30th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 30th: Even though both global and local markets have experienced a correction structurally, it is a moderately bullish market. Today, the market may open with a gap-down start, as indicated by the GIFT Nifty, showing -80 points at 8:00 am. Structurally, Nifty and Bank Nifty differ. Let's examine each one: Nifty: In the previous session, Nifty opened with a gap-up, but there was no continued rally, and it fell drastically mid-market. What's next? > As per the weekly analysis, it could be in the 4th wave and has already reached the 23% Fibonacci level. If the market finds support around the 38% Fibonacci level today, we can initially expect it to range between the previous high and the 38% Fibonacci level. If it then breaks the previous high, the 5th wave may continue, > with pullback targets expected to be a minimum of 61% to 78%, which is the usual range market target. > The alternate view suggests that if the gap-down sustains and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it may turn into a correction. If this happens, we can expect a minimum target level of 50%. After that, if the market breaks this level with minor consolidation, the correction will likely continue. However, if it is sharply rejected, we may also expect a range market, but the probability is lower.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 29th.Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty also saw a strong pullback in the last trading session. If the gap-up sustains, then the pullback will likely continue. My expectation is that, as per the structure, we can't expect much of a retrace even if it rejects either of the resistance levels. This means that if the gap-up sustains, it will continue the rally with some little consolidation. This is our first variation. Alternatively, if the gap-up doesn't sustain or if it rejects either of the resistances sharply, we can expect a 61 to 78% correction in the minor swing, but it should break the 38% Fibonacci level. If it doesn't break it, then it will maintain the bullish bias.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
6
#Nifty directions and levels for July 29th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 29th: The global market has a moderately bullish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, and our local market mirrors this sentiment. Today, the market may open with a gap-up, as indicated by the GIFT Nifty, showing +130 points at 8:00 am. Structurally, Nifty and Bank Nifty differ but may both continue their pullbacks today. Let's examine each one: Nifty: Nifty experienced a strong rally in the previous session, which could be identified as sub-wave 3. If the market opens with a gap-up, this 3rd wave may continue towards the 24956 to 25067 range. If the market hits one of these resistance levels and then reverses, we can expect a minor correction forming the 4th wave. Typically, the 4th wave is a consolidation phase, potentially leading to a 23 to 38% retracement in the minor swing. This is our primary scenario. Alternatively, if the gap-up doesn't sustain, we could complete the 3rd wave immediately, and the decline could be considered the 4th wave. There are no significant changes in the 4th wave levels; it could take a maximum of 23 to 38%. However, if the decline has a solid structure and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it could turn into a correction.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
2
#BankNifty directions and levels for July 26th.**Bank Nifty:** >Bank Nifty has a bearish sentiment, but RSI doesn't support that much due to the huge pullbacks. So, if the gap-up doesn't sustain, we can expect a range market between 23% and the previous low. After that, if it breaks down, we can expect correction continuation. >Alternatively, if the gap-up sustains above the level of 23%, then we can expect a move to the 38% level. >But Even if it takes a pullback, structurally it could be the 4th wave. So, after that pullback, if it rejects around the 38% Fibonacci level, then we can expect a correction.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
5
#Nifty directions and level for July 26th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 26th: The global market has a bearish sentiment (based on the Dow Jones). Our local market has a structurally moderately bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as indicated by the GIFT Nifty, which shows +40 points at 8.00 am. **Nifty:** In the previous session, Nifty closed with a pullback, and today it may continue this trend because GIFT Nifty indicates that. However, if you look at the wave count, every swing has a three-wave count. There are many variations with three-wave structures, but here we can take these two variations for simplicity: 1. **Diagonal Variation:** - In this variation, it shouldn't close the candle above the level of 24,473. If it happens, we can expect a correction. - This means if the market initially declines sharply or, after the gap-up, if it rejects around the level of 24,473, then it may turn into a correction. - However, confirmation is expected from the 38% Fibonacci level breakout in the minor swing. If this happens, we can expect a minimum of 50%, 78%, and 24,175. - If it doesn't break this level, it will continue the moderately bullish sentiment. This is our current variation. 2. **Pullback Continuation:** - In this variation, we could complete the correction to the first three swings from the start of the correction. So, if the gap-up sustains above the level of 24,473, then we can expect pullback continuation with some consolidations. The targets are a minimum of 24,588 to 24,635. This is our alternate variation.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
4
#Nifty directions and levels for July 24th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 24th: The global market has a bearish sentiment (based on the Dow Jones). Our local market, however, maintains a structurally moderately bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-down start, as indicated by the Gift Nifty, which shows -60 points at 8 am. Structurally, both Nifty and Bank Nifty are range-bound, so they might continue in this manner today. In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced significant movements due to the budget announcement but closed with a solid pullback at the end of the day. Structurally, this indicates potential for further continuation. It's important to note that The budget announcement of the previous session may affect the market today, so we should trade cautiously. However, I have analyzed my sentiments for Nifty and Bank Nifty, so let's examine them one by one. Today's sentiments: Nifty: If the gap-down sustains and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it may again enter the range market. This is difficult to trade, but my expectation is if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it may reach the 78% with some consolidation. This is our first variation. In this variation, after that correction if it also breaks 78%, the correction may continue further. Alternatively, if the decline finds support around the 38% Fibonacci level, it’s a sign of a bullish bias. We can expect a pullback continuation if it breaks the minor swing high. Until then, it may consolidate between the minor swing high and the 38% Fibonacci level. Note: If the market opens with a gap-up and breaks the minor swing high, the rally will continue. The upside levels remain the same.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 24th.Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty also has a range-bound structure, so the next movement is expected only if it breaks out of the range. Until then, it may continue within the current range. Due to the market closing within the range, precise levels are difficult to determine. However, if it breaks 52,502, it may continue the correction to a minimum of 51,325 to 51,186. Alternatively, if the gap-down doesn’t sustain and finds support around 51,502, then structurally it may continue within the range, with an expected upside to a minimum of 52,086 and up to the 61% Fibonacci level. Note: If the market opens with a gap-up and breaks the minor swing high, the rally will continue. The upside levels remain the same
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for July 19th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for July 19th: In the last session, the Dow Jones fell drastically, indicating a negative bias. Our local market has a mixed bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as indicated by the Gift Nifty, which shows a +10 points. Nifty and Bank Nifty are showing different structures. Nifty has a solid bullish structure, while Bank Nifty is in consolidation. Let's look at this one by one. Nifty: In the previous session, Nifty had a huge movement at the end of the day, making a new high with a solid handle. What’s next? I will explain step by step to help you easily understand. Point 1: If you roughly look at the chart, it shows a solid bullish structure. You can expect the rally to continue if it breaks the previous high. This is the basic structure. Point 2: But even if made a new high with solid candle The RSI did not break the previous high in 4H, 1H, or even 15min. At the same time, the Dow Jones also fell drastically. Point 3: And if u look at the Bank Nifty it did not participate in this rally. but it has a consolidation. If it breaks the consolidation, it may help continue the rally. The probability is uncertain. Considering these three points, it’s complicated to conclude the direction. Here’s my opinion: if the market breaks the previous high and Bank Nifty supports it, we can enter a long position, which may yield better results. Alternatively, if there is a solid breakout candle, you can enter, but the decision is yours. This is our bullish variation. Bearish view: Alternatively, if the market declines initially, we could wait for the 38% Fibonacci level breakout. If it breaks, we can expect a correction of a minimum of 50% to 78%. On the other hand, if it doesn’t break 38%, then it will maintain the bullish bias.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
1
#Nifty directions and level for July 18th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for July 18th: The global market has a bullish sentiment (based on Dow Jones). Our local market has a moderately bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-down start because the Gift Nifty indicates a 20-point decrease. Nifty: In the previous trading session, Nifty opened with a gap-up but did not rise much higher. Structurally, it is showing consolidation, which is likely to continue in the same direction. However, this will only happen if it breaks the previous high. Given that Gift Nifty suggests a gap-down opening today, the scenario changes slightly. So, If the market declines initially, we can expect a 23% to 38% level of correction. After that, if it finds support at these levels, the consolidation may continue. For a continuation, it must break the 38% Fibonacci level solidly. Alternatively, if the gap-down doesn't sustain and the market pulls back, we can expect consolidation until it breaks the previous high. If it breaks the previous high with a solid candlestick structure, a rally continuation is expected, with some consolidations around the resistance levels. On the other hand, if it doesn't break with a solid candlestick structure, the market may continue in a diagonal pattern, meaning it won't generate much premium today. (I have plotted a bow and tie pattern). Note: You can follow the same sentiment if it opens with a gap-up movement.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders