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Elliott Wave

Gold : The fundamental context and goals have both changedOANDA:XAUUSD The breakout of the local downtrend channel has disadvantaged sellers. The fundamental background is changing, despite continued USD buying and the prevailing risk-off environment, which overall favors gold as a safe-haven asset during times of crisis. The stronger USD, supported by the ongoing "Trump trade" rally, and US bond yields have rebounded across various maturities. Despite the optimism around the USD, gold prices remain resilient and benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, gold prices are likely to continue their growth in the near term before today’s scheduled news (PMI)... However! Since this is pre-news before session closing, reactions may consolidate for sellers before further strengthening. Technically, gold has every opportunity to retest the boundaries of the previously broken channel. However, based on fundamental news and technical factors, we can conclude that further growth may continue. Prices are heading toward a liquidity zone, from which a correction may occur, followed by expected further strengthening in the near term. But in any case, I prioritize and consider buying upon a clear breakout of gold at 2686 - 2700, targeting the medium-term highs as outlined on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bo-Samson
Classic Double Correction PatternThis is a classic example of Double correction (Double three) in HDFCLIFE. Marked in the first box, we can see Flat Correction where wave B is retraced to the 81% level. We are fulfilling the minimum requirement (61.8%) of wave B. Here in wave C, we see three waves. This is the first hint of an upcoming complex correction. The whole wave is marked as W here. In the second box, there is a perfect Zig-zag pattern. Wave B is retraced to 50% here. Also, we can see three waves in wave C, which gives us wave Y. These two waves are connected by wave X which is retraced to 111%. This is the best example of Double correction. This analysis is for educational purposes only. This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci analysis.
NSE:HDFCLIFEEducation
by theprofityogi
1
#Nifty directions and levels for November 22nd.Good Morning, Friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for November 22nd. Market Overview: The global markets are showing moderately bullish sentiment (based on the Dow Jones only), while our local market has maintained a bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, based on the Gifty Nifty showing a positive 100 points. > In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced a significant fall. However, Bank Nifty had a solid pullback, making the structural setups for both indices different. What about today? Looking at Nifty's structure, there is consolidation after a long correction. Usually, this type of structure indicates a trend continuation. On the other hand, Bank Nifty had a solid pullback, suggesting further upward momentum. The gap-up indication from SGX Nifty supports this view. Thus, both charts are showing different directions. My personal opinion is: > if the market declines initially, it might decline further, but the momentum will be reduced. > Conversely, if the market sustains the gap-up, then we can expect a rally continuation, but only if it has a solid candle structure Let me explain this further with the charts. Nifty: Current View As per the structure If the market declines initially, we can expect a correction. However, the best confirmation would come if it breaks yesterday's low with consolidation or a solid candle structure. If this happens, the next target could be a minimum of 23082. Alternate View: The alternate scenario suggests that if the market sustains the gap-up and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level with a solid breakout structure, we can expect further pullback continuation with some consolidation. On the other hand, if it breaks the 38% level with gradual movements, it could consolidate between the 50% Fibonacci level and the previous low.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
3
#Banknifty directions and levels for November 22nd.Bank Nifty Current View: According to the structure, if the market sustains the gap-up and has a solid breakout structure, we can expect further pullback continuation accompanied by some consolidation. On the other hand, if it breaks the MSZ level with gradual movements, it could consolidate between the previous high and the previous low. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market declines initially, we can expect a range-bound market between the previous low and the opening price. After that, we can follow the direction based on which level it breaks.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Natco Pharma for 45%+ gainsDate: 21 Nov’24 Symbol: NATCOPHARM Timeframe: Daily Natco Pharma currently seems to be in Wave IV of 3 which could end around 1240-1220 and Wave V could then head towards 1800-1900 levels (45%+ from where Wave IV would end) as seen in the chart. A more precise target can be pinned once it makes a fresh ATH. Two levels (1770 & 1900) have been marked as possible supply zone. The company recently posted good Q2 numbers. The stock is currently trading at a PE multiple of 12.6 while the industry average is around 32. This is not a prediction but a possible wave count. This is also not a recommendation to trade or invest. Please do your own analysis. HINGLISH VERSION Natco Pharma vartamaan mein 3 ke Wave IV mein hai, jo 1240-1220 ke aaspaas samaapt ho sakta hai aur Wave V phir 1800-1900 ke star (45%+ jahaan Wave IV samaapt hoga) kee taraf badh sakta hai, jaisa ki chart mein dekh sakte hain. Ek baar naya ATH banaane par adhik sateek target pin kiya ja sakta hai. Do staron (1770 aur 1900) ko sambhaavit supply zone ke roop mein mark kiya gaya hai. Company ne haal hee mein achhe Q2 ke numbers post kiye hain. Stock vartamaan mein 12.6 ke PE multiple par kaarobaar kar raha hai jabki industry ka average lagbhag 32 hai. Yah koee bhavishyavaanee nahin balki sambhaavit Wave count hai. Yah trade lene ya invest karne ki bhi salaah nahi hai. Kripya apana vishleshan svayan karen.
NSE:NATCOPHARMLong
by DhandhaPaani
#Nifty directions and levels for November 21stGood Morning, Friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for November 21st. Market Overview: There are no significant changes in the global market sentiment. The Dow Jones is showing a moderately bearish trend, and our local market is also indicating a bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open neutral to slightly gap-down, as Gift Nifty is showing a negative 40-point movement. In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced huge oscillations. Structurally, the market closed between minor swings, which makes it seem like a range-bound market. What about today? We are still in a minor downtrend. If the market opens with a gap-down, the same bearish direction may continue. On the other hand, if it takes a pullback initially, we might see some consolidation within the previous session's range. Let’s explain this further with charts. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty are showing similar structural sentiment. Nifty Current View: The current view suggests that if the market declines initially, we can expect a minimum of 23,275 (MDZ) if it breaks the level of 23,399. Notably, if it reaches this level with gradual movement (MDZ), we can expect a minimum bounce back of 23% to 38%. On the other hand, if it reaches this level with a solid structure or consolidates around here, then the correction is likely to continue. This is our first variation. Alternate View: The alternate variation suggests that if the market pulls back initially, we can expect a range-bound market between the previous session's range. This means if it breaks 23,585, it will reach 23,713. After that, if it gets rejected there, it will close where it opened.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Banknifty directions and levels for November 21stBank Nifty Current View: The structure is similar to the Nifty sentiment. If the market declines initially, we can expect a minimum of 78% (OIS) if it breaks the level of 50,316. Notably, if it reaches this level with gradual movement (MDZ), we can expect a minimum bounce back of 23% to 38%. On the other hand, if it reaches this level with a solid structure or consolidates around here, then the correction is likely to continue. This is our first variation. Alternate View: The alternate variation suggests that if the market pulls back initially, we can expect a range-bound market between the previous session's range. This means if it breaks 50,648, it will reach 50,867. After that, if it gets rejected there, it will close where it opened.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Gold-> Buyer Back Yet?After suffering significant losses last week, gold has regained its recovery momentum and is trading positively above $2,600 on Monday. The fundamental backdrop supports this recovery. Key resistance levels at $2,518 and $2,628 now divide the market into two distinct zones. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting moves from several Fed officials this week to gain further insights into the U.S. interest rate trajectory. The most likely scenario at the moment is a slight recovery in gold prices following the recent steep sell-off, with expectations for gold to climb higher after several reversals in the USD. In the medium term, bulls need to reassess U.S. policy planning in December, as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in January. This has not been fully priced into the market, so any adjustments could pose challenges for gold. Technically, since the market opened, prices have climbed considerably, increasing the likelihood of resistance capping further upward movement. A false breakout at $2,589 and subsequent consolidation below this zone would strengthen selling pressure. However, there is potential for a retest of $2,618 (Order Block). Similarly, a failed breakout could trigger selling momentum. But if the fundamentals align strongly in favor of gold, the market may have a chance to shift the local trend from the $2,618 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bo-Samson
GBPUSDFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets. A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market. On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term. Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269 Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231 The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
Short
by Bo-Samson
#Nifty directions and levels for November 19th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for November 19th. Market Overview: There are no significant changes happening. The global market is showing moderately bearish sentiment (based on Dow Jones only), and our local market is also exhibiting a bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as the Nifty is showing a positive increase of 50 points. In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty moved in a consolidation pattern. Structurally, we can expect a range-bound market today as well, with a bearish bias. This means that until the minor range is broken, the market will move within this range. If it breaks out, we can expect the next movement based on that. Let’s explain this with the charts. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have the same structural sentiment. Nifty Current View: The current view suggests that if the market declines initially, then 23,396 will act as support. If the market breaks this level, the correction will continue to a minimum of 23,322. On the other hand, if it doesn’t break this level (23,396), then it could consolidate within the channel. This is our first variation. Alternate View: The alternate variation suggests that if the market sustains the gap-up, then 23,583 will act as resistance. If the market consolidates or breaks this level, then the pullback will continue to the next resistance Fibonacci level of 38%. Conversely, if it doesn’t break or rejects this level, we can expect consolidation leading to a correction.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Banknifty directions and levels for November 19th.Bank Nifty Current View: The structure is similar to the Nifty sentiment. The current view suggests that if the market declines initially, then 50,045 will act as support. If the market breaks this level, the correction will continue to a minimum of 49,745. On the other hand, if it doesn’t break this level (50,045), then it could consolidate between the level of 50,045 and the 38% upside. Alternate View: The alternate variation suggests that if the market sustains the gap-up, then the 38% level will act as resistance. If the market consolidates or breaks this level, then the pullback will continue to the next resistance Fibonacci level of 50%. Conversely, if it doesn’t break or rejects this level, we can expect consolidation leading to a correction.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Update latest gold price today !Hello everyone! Gold has been in a steady decline since the start of the week, currently sitting at 2561, with strong indications that this downtrend may persist. The key 2550 level is still fiercely contested, keeping traders on edge. The market remains clouded with apprehension, especially with recent developments in the U.S. following Donald Trump's election as president. This lingering uncertainty may continue to weigh heavily on gold. At the moment, all attention is focused on the upcoming October Producer Price Index (PPI) report in the U.S. Analysts are forecasting a year-over-year increase of 2.3% for October, a notable jump from September's 1.8%. If both the CPI and PPI show further inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve could be pushed to raise interest rates, which could apply even more pressure on gold prices. A stronger U.S. dollar would make gold trading and holding costs more expensive, potentially intensifying the sell-off. Technically speaking, the battle at 2550 is far from over, and there’s a strong likelihood of a brief pullback before continuing the downward trend. This could mean a possible retest of the 2600-2580 resistance zone before resuming its decline. Chart patterns suggest that if the correction unfolds as anticipated—possibly in line with an Elliott wave impulse—the target could be around 2485, a drop of over 1000 pips from the resistance level. Stay tuned for more developments as this situation unfolds!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bo-Samson
2
Gold -> How Long Will the Adjustment Last? Emphasis on $2,600Hello, dear friends! Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recovery early this week, reaching the critical $2,600 mark and ending a six-day losing streak after a false breakout and a retest of $2,546. This rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions as the U.S. authorized Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike Russia. However, the market remains under significant pressure. The USD and bond yields continue to rise, while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Economic struggles in Europe are weakening the euro, driving demand for the USD and further weighing on gold. This week, the gold market is expected to remain subdued with limited major economic data releases. Key areas to watch include U.S. housing data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Gold is currently testing the critical resistance zone at $2,600–$2,589. A false breakout here could trigger strong selling, reinforcing bearish momentum. Conversely, a modest pullback followed by a decline to $2,546 would solidify a clearer downtrend. Keep a close watch!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bo-Samson
#Nifty directions and levels for November 18th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for November 18th. Market Overview: There are no significant changes happening. The global market is showing a moderately bearish sentiment (based on the Dow Jones only), and our local market is also exhibiting bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-down start, with the Gifty Nifty showing a negative 80 points. In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty moved in a consolidation pattern. Structurally, it remains a bearish trend, so if the gap-down sustains, we can expect the continuation of the correction. On the other hand, if it rejects around the immediate support level or opens with a gap-up, we can expect a minimum pullback of 23% to 38%. Let’s look at this in the charts. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have the same structural sentiment. Nifty Current View: The current view for Nifty indicates that if the initial market takes a pullback around the immediate support level (23,435), we can expect a minimum pullback of 23% to 38%. After that, if it rejects at either the 23% or 38% Fibonacci level, the correction will likely continue. However, if it sustains and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it could reach the 50% and 61% levels. If this happens, the upcoming session could turn into a range market. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks the immediate support level (23,435) solidly or consolidates around the support level, the correction will likely continue to the level of 23,245.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
3
#Banknifty directions and levels for November 18th.Bank Nifty Current View: The current view for Bank Nifty indicates that if the initial market takes a pullback around the immediate support level (38%), we can expect a minimum pullback of 23% to 38%. After that, if it rejects at either the 23% or 38% Fibonacci level, the correction will likely continue. However, if it sustains and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it could reach the 50% and 61% levels. If this happens, the upcoming session could turn into a range market. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks the immediate support level (38%) solidly or consolidates around the support level, the correction will likely continue to the level of 49,283.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
What's happening in ITC?ITC daily chart: After completion of Normal or Trending Impulse, the price falls. We can see clearly that the first leg of this fall looks like an impulse (shown by red 1-2-3-4-5), which is wave A of Zig-zag. Then price retraced to 38.2% forming wave B. Currently, wave C is developing in ITC. The minimum fall for this is 61.8% extension, which is near the 459 level. Remember that this is a minimum fall for any Zig-zag pattern. If the price breaks 459 and starts trading below it, the target of 100%, which is near 438.85, will be achieved. (This also fulfills the Rule of Equality). This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci. This analysis is for educational purposes only.
NSE:ITCShort
by theprofityogi