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XAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook After Fed Rate CutXAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook After Fed Rate Cut Hello fellow traders, The most anticipated event of September is now clear: the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first reduction this year. Market expectations also indicate the possibility of another 50 basis points cut in the upcoming meeting. In his speech, Chairman Powell highlighted the “dual risk” – inflation could rise further while employment shows signs of weakness. Technical View Gold has formed an H1 candle closing below the rising price channel, signalling a possible violation of the medium-term uptrend. The buying side failed to maintain momentum after the rate cut news, showing caution in entering at elevated price levels. Medium-term investors may consider waiting for a lower price to enter fresh longs. However, the downside is not fully confirmed, as price is still hovering around the ascending trendline → selling directly at current levels still carries certain risks. Trading Scenarios Sell Strategy Scalping: 3676 – 3678 | SL: 3683 | TP: 3666 – 3650 – 3635 – 3628 (Stop loss can be moved to breakeven if price reacts well, to hold positions longer). Sell Zone: 3697 – 3700 | SL: 3705 | TP: 3680 – 3666 – 3650 – 3635 – 3628 Buy Strategy Scalping: 3634 – 3636 | SL: 3629 | TP: 3645 – 3660 – 3672 Buy Zone: 3600 – 3598 | SL: 3590 | TP: 3633 – 3645 – 3660 – 3675 (extended) Conclusion Gold is currently in a sensitive phase after the Fed’s decision to cut rates. Traders must watch price action carefully around major support and resistance levels to confirm a clearer direction. Stay tuned to this outlook — I will continue to provide updates as the market structure evolves. Follow along to receive the fastest scenario changes as price action develops.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
LiamTrading – XAUUSD OutlookSharing my personal view on the possible next move for gold. Based on the current chart structure, the wave formation suggests that XAUUSD is most likely in Wave 4. The correction started yesterday after price touched the 3,700 mark – a round resistance level which also coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This area often attracts heavy liquidity, and the subsequent pullback further supports the view that Wave 4 has been activated. At present, the key support to watch is 3,675. If this level breaks, the corrective structure could complete around 3,656. On the H1 timeframe, the RSI has moved below the 30 level, indicating oversold conditions. In my view, while the market remains in this phase, it is still preferable to look for selling opportunities, though patience is needed until clearer confluence signals appear. Trading plan (short-term focus): Sell entry 3685–3687, SL 3693, TP 3670 – 3656 Buy entry 3656–3654, SL 3648, TP 3675 – 3690 – 3702 – 3721 – 3740 I will continue to share further updates if there are significant moves in price. Wishing everyone successful and effective trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
Elliott Wave Analysis & Technical Cross-VerificationsHello Friends, Welcome to RK_Chaarts, Today, we're going to learn how to validate our Elliott Wave analysis by identifying additional factors that support our directional bias. Once we've plotted our Elliott Wave counts and identified a direction, we want to confirm whether other technical indicators and patterns align with our analysis. This helps strengthen our conviction in our directional bias and provides additional confidence in our trading decisions. Today, we'll explore some key points, including Elliott Wave theory, Exponential moving averages, Trend line breakouts, and Invalidation levels, as well as projected targets. And please note that this post is shared solely for educational purposes. It is not a trading idea, tip, or advisory. This is purely an Educational post. Elliott Wave Theory structure & wave Counts Here chart we are using Nifty India Defence sector, which is an index chart. We are analyzing it using Elliott Wave theory. It's very clear that from the March 2025 bottom, we've identified a clear Wave (1) Wave (2) Wave (3) and Wave (4) and now we've started Wave (5) of Intermediate degree in Blue. Projections of wave (5) According to the theory, the projected target for Wave (5) is typically between 123% to 161.8% of the length of Wave (4). So, we can at least assume that the price will reach 123% of Wave (4)’s length, and the price will move higher from here. Trendline Breakout The trend line breakout also confirms this. Since Wave (4) moved downwards, Wave (5) should move upwards, indicating a potential upward movement in price. This is a positive signal and a possibility. Dow Theory confirmation of Trend changed Additionally, we can see that in the daily time frame, the price has recently completed Wave (4) and formed a higher high, followed by a higher low, and then another higher high, along with a trend line breakout, which we've marked with a rounded ellipse on candle on the chart. According to Dow theory, this formation of higher highs and higher lows, along with the trend line breakout, indicates that the index has the strength to break through resistance. These two factors strongly support our Elliott Wave projection, which suggests that the price will move upwards. The chart is looking bullish, indicating that a swing has been activated upwards from here. Exponential Moving Averages Furthermore, we can see that the price is trading above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) in the daily time frame, as well as above the 100-day EMA and the 200-day EMA. These three EMAs are major indicators, and the price is sustaining above all of them. This is also a very good positive sign that supports our view and this scenario. Supporting Indicators MACD RSI Some Hurdles to cross yet Finally, we can see that the Zero B trend line, which is coming down from the top, has not been crossed by the price yet, and there has been no breakout. Additionally, we have drawn a trend line connecting the high of the third wave and the low of the fourth wave, which initially acted as resistance and later as support. This trend line is also approaching the same level as the Zero B trend line. So, we have two resistances converging at the same point, which the price has yet to break out of. This could potentially be a hurdle, and it's possible that according to the Elliott Wave count, Wave (5) will arrive with five sub-divisions, which could lead to a retest of the previous trend line or a Retracement before moving further upwards. Invalidation Level According to Elliott Wave theory, the nearest invalidation level is the low of Wave (4), which is currently at 7368, and this level should not be breached. If it is, it will lead to a lower low, which would be an invalidation of the Elliott Wave count. Overall, the chart of this index looks very promising and bullish. As we all know, the market can be unpredictable, but if this invalidation level is not triggered and the price doesn't break down, then the chart may move upwards with strength. This entire analysis that we discussed is for the Nifty India Defense index chart. Please note that this is not a trading tip or advice, but rather an educational perspective that we shared. Also, keep in mind that the Nifty Defense index is not tradable, but it does provide insight into the market's direction. This post is shared purely for educational purpose & it’s Not a trading advice. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:NIFTY_IND_DEFENCEEducation
by RK_Chaarts
4
Bitcoin – Trend Update Ahead of PPIBitcoin – Trend Update Ahead of PPI Hello Traders, The current scenario for Bitcoin is unfolding in line with expectations, with the uptrend continuing to develop strongly. Price waves are moving with solid volume, and the overall structure is progressing exactly as anticipated. Key Levels Price has broken through the 113k zone, confirming that the bullish trend is intact. This move increases the likelihood of completing the final wave of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The next level to watch is around 116k, where a mild reaction or pullback may occur before the trend resumes higher towards the 121k region. Special attention should be given to the 117k level, as this marks the potential completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders structure. At this point, price may consolidate before establishing a new primary trend. Trading View For now, it remains important to follow the prevailing uptrend. Any shift in price structure will require re-evaluation, and updated strategies should be applied only after clear confirmation. This is my latest outlook on Bitcoin ahead of the PPI release. I hope this perspective proves useful in shaping your trading approach.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Latest Trend UpdateXAUUSD – Latest Trend Update Hello Traders, Gold is moving in line with yesterday’s outlook: after a corrective pullback towards 3660, price resumed its decline and is currently trending lower. If this bearish structure is confirmed on the higher timeframes such as H1 and H4, it may signal that a larger corrective phase on the D1 chart has already begun. Key Levels to Watch 3620: Marked as an important support zone from yesterday, now considered the key level to confirm continued downside. 3630: Aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where a reaction could occur before the trend direction becomes clearer. Medium-Term Scenarios Gold could decline towards 3550, before bouncing higher again – this is the preferred medium-term scenario. A deeper move towards 3510 is also possible, where liquidity from previous candle wicks may be retested, before the broader uptrend resumes on the daily timeframe. The reason for favouring this medium-term downside: price has already completed the Fibonacci Extension 2.618, which often signals the potential for a corrective pullback. Trading Strategy Observe reactions around 3630 – 3620 – 3610 for potential buy opportunities aligned with the broader bullish structure. Sell setups should only be considered if price closes firmly below 3620, confirming further downside momentum. This is my trading plan for gold today. Use it as a reference and feel free to share your own perspective in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Trend Outlook Ahead of PPIXAUUSD – Trend Outlook Ahead of PPI Hello Traders, Gold has moved close to the Fibonacci 2.618 extension and immediately reacted at this level. Price has already broken through the most recent minor low of the previous uptrend, which in my view indicates a violation of the bullish structure. For a confirmed shift in trend, another leg would be needed to form a more sustainable structure. Still, the basis for a sell bias is already present. Fundamental Factor The US PPI data is due today, with forecasts at 0.3% compared to 0.9% previously. If this projection turns out correct, gold could see another strong upward push. However, my view is that the data may not be as weak as expected, so traders should carefully observe the market reaction to the release before making entries. Key Levels to Watch 3660: This level could be tested again and provide another reaction before a potential downward move begins. It remains the most attractive zone for initiating sell positions. 3318: Should gold confirm a Dow-style lower structure and break past old support, the deeper downside target may lie around this region. Trading Strategy The main strategy for today is to look for sell opportunities: Best entry area: around 3660, if price retests and reacts. Strong confirmation: once a candle closes below previous support, short positions can be taken with targets further down. For intraday traders, scalping opportunities may be considered within the corrective range left from the US session yesterday, as the market redistributes price action. This is my outlook on gold for today – use it as a reference and align it with your own strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
1
Bitcoin – Current Trend UpdateBitcoin – Current Trend Update Hello Traders, Bitcoin continues to follow the structure of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which has not yet been invalidated. After testing the 113.5k zone, price once again reacted lower – this marks the third rejection at this level, confirming it as a key resistance area. For BTC to sustain its bullish momentum and complete the final wave of the formation, this zone will be crucial. Scenarios to Watch Bullish Case: The uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above 109k. In this case, buying opportunities are still valid. Bearish Case: A sustained close below 109k would invalidate the bullish outlook and activate a bearish scenario. Traders should wait for confirmation before committing to shorts. Short-Term View On the lower timeframes, BTC is moving within a sideways range. For intraday traders, range strategies such as buying near support and selling near resistance can still be applied until a clear breakout occurs. Market Sentiment At the moment, most of the market’s attention is shifting towards gold, leaving Bitcoin with relatively lower momentum. This may keep BTC trading in a tighter range, so traders should lower expectations for strong volatility in the immediate term. This is my trading outlook for today. Use it as a reference and feel free to share your own perspectives in the comments.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
6
XAUUSD – Early Week Trading ScenarioXAUUSD – Early Week Trading Scenario Hello Traders, The Asian session opened the new week with mild fluctuations in gold, followed by a pullback into the major liquidity zone created during last week’s bullish wave. At present, price is showing signs of breaking below the 3585 support. If a strong M15 candle closes under this level, it can be considered a short-term correction signal. In that case, a light sell position may be initiated, targeting the 3560 zone. The 3560 level stands out as a reliable support, aligning with the ascending trendline. This makes it a key area for buying in line with the prevailing uptrend, with the potential for price to extend higher and even revisit its all-time highs. However, if price climbs back to retest the trendline, any short positions from that area should be approached cautiously and only with clear confirmation. Another potential buy zone lies near 3516, where the market previously cleared the liquidity from the closest FVG. Overall, gold is likely to require some corrective moves before continuing its broader trend. In particular, short trades should only be considered when the reversal structure is clearly validated. This is my trading perspective for gold today. Please take it as a reference for your own strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Week 08/09 to 12/09, Focus on CPI & PPIXAUUSD – Week 08/09 to 12/09, Focus on CPI & PPI Hello Traders, Gold delivered a strong rally last week, consistently printing new highs on a daily basis. While this is not unusual, it has introduced caution in the market. Investor sentiment continues to lean heavily towards buying gold, underlining its importance as a safe-haven asset. Fundamental Outlook In the coming week, the release of US CPI and PPI data will be a key focus. These indicators will provide important insight into the financial health of the US economy and could directly influence the Fed’s decision on a potential rate cut in September. Technical Perspective Gold has already broken through the Fibonacci 1.618 level, with the next target aligning around the 2.618 extension near 3687. Before reaching this zone, a mild correction at FVG (Fair Value Gap) areas cannot be ruled out. For the long term, the zone around 3467 – 3475 is considered a strong buying region, supported by the confluence of FVG, Dibo, and Volume Profile. Trading Strategies Bullish Priority: Long positions remain favored. The 3467–3475 zone offers an attractive entry for longer-term buyers. Bearish Condition: Short opportunities should only be considered if there is a confirmed reversal structure, with price breaking below 3510 or showing rejection signals near the 2.618 Fibonacci level. Conclusion For the upcoming week, gold remains a buy-on-dip market. Traders should closely monitor reactions at key levels, while staying flexible with short-term strategies as intraday updates unfold. Proper risk management remains crucial given the upcoming macroeconomic data releases.
TVC:XAXLong
by BrianLionCapital
Bitcoin – H4 Mid-Term AnalysisBitcoin – H4 Mid-Term Analysis Hello Traders, Bitcoin continues to trade within a wide sideways range. Despite the spike in volume following the recent NFP release, the market has not yet confirmed a dominant trend. Price action is still rotating within the 107k – 113k zone. Elliott Wave Perspective Wave 5 appears to have completed, and an A–B corrective structure is taking shape. This opens the possibility for one more upward leg before the next decisive move develops. Trendline & Key Levels A descending trendline is currently acting as resistance. It may offer early short opportunities, though a clear break below 107k is required to confirm a mid-term bearish outlook. On the flip side, if price respects the trendline and bounces higher, a wave C rally could unfold. Importantly, BTC is still holding above the rising channel, suggesting that bearish momentum remains limited for now. Scenarios to Watch Bullish Case: If Bitcoin sustains above 107k and manages a breakout above 113k, momentum could extend towards 115k – 118k. Long positions can be considered once confirmation comes from stronger volume or a MACD crossover. Bearish Case: Failure to hold above 107k would expose the market to further downside, targeting 104k – 101k where strong historical support is located. Professional Take The market remains indecisive in the mid-term, with no clear directional bias yet. Traders should closely watch the reaction at 107k and the descending trendline to determine the next move. Flexibility and strict risk management are essential in this phase of heightened volatility.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
1
XAUUSD – Has the Downtrend Really Started?XAUUSD – Has the Downtrend Really Started? Hello traders, Gold is now showing signs of a corrective move lower. Price has already dropped by nearly 40 dollars, signalling that selling pressure is starting to build. Traders are accepting lower prices at this level, but to truly confirm a bearish shift, we need to see price action around the 3530 zone, which acts as a key level for validation. On the higher timeframe, gold has rallied almost 250 dollars (2500 pips) in just two weeks, a very strong bullish run. However, with the upcoming NFP release today and tomorrow, the market could redistribute liquidity. Current forecasts suggest weak NFP numbers, and if that plays out, gold may still push higher – but this remains speculative. Trading strategy for now: Short entries: around 354x, aiming for a medium- to long-term move lower. Potential buy zones: watch for reactions at the FVG liquidity gaps around 3510 – 3460 – 3430, where strong demand previously created imbalances. For now, my outlook remains medium-term short, while staying flexible around key liquidity levels. Take this as reference, and share your views in the comments – let’s discuss together.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
Bitcoin – Bearish Scenario Moving as PlannedBitcoin – Bearish Scenario Moving as Planned Hello traders, BTC is moving exactly in line with the plan, reacting well within the channel and showing a pullback at the retest of the rising trend. Hopefully many of you managed to catch the short signal shared earlier. Following the current momentum, BTC is holding well on the downside. The short position can be maintained in the medium term, with the next long zone expected around 105k. On higher timeframes, BTC still remains in a broader bullish structure, with potential for higher targets from long-term buy zones. However, current market sentiment shows much of the liquidity flowing into gold, so BTC may move more slowly in the short run. This is my next trading outlook for BTC. Take it as reference, stay patient, and manage your trades with discipline. Do share your views in the comments.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Is Fibo 1.618 Strong Enough to End the Rally?XAUUSD – Is Fibo 1.618 Strong Enough to End the Rally? Hello traders, Gold has now posted six straight daily gains, showing the strong momentum behind this buying wave. This reflects the current sentiment in global markets, where gold continues to be treated as one of the most important safe-haven assets amid ongoing tariff discussions and a flood of news. Part of this move has been driven by speculation around former US President Trump. While the news itself is unclear and not fully verified, it has been enough to influence global financial markets and push gold higher in recent sessions. From a technical perspective, gold has already broken out of its daily trend channel and extended strongly higher. Right now, price is pausing around the Fibonacci 1.618 extension at 3536, which is acting as a dynamic resistance. If a bearish structure forms on the M15 timeframe, a short entry could be activated at this level. Short scenario: Watch 3536 – if bearish confirmation appears on M15, short positions may be considered. Buy scenario: The broader uptrend remains intact. A retest of the previous highs at 3500–3505 could offer a strong long entry for the medium to long term. From a market psychology standpoint, this price area will be closely observed: buyers have already taken profits, while sellers have been partially liquidated. This means lower timeframes will be crucial for spotting clean entries. This is my view on gold for today. Take it as reference, trade with discipline, and share your thoughts in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Sell Strategy ActivatedXAUUSD – Sell Strategy Activated Hello traders, Gold has followed the expected scenario, reacting precisely around the 3508–3510 zone. This correction is a good signal to consider a bearish outlook. However, for a clearer confirmation, price needs to close an M15 candle below 3466. If that happens, the previous bullish wave will be considered invalid, giving a stronger probability for the Sell setup. Structurally, gold is still within the main rising channel, which means an early short entry should wait until liquidity from the small FVG zone above is fully taken. Technical indicators are supporting this view: MACD has shown consistent bearish momentum in the last 4 H1 candles. Several indicators are already showing divergence, pointing to weakening bullish strength. Sell zone to watch: around 3488–3491. Setup invalidated if price breaks above the nearest resistance. At this stage, the appetite for new long positions is fading, and buying at these levels carries greater risk. Remember, no trend moves in one direction forever – for price to reach higher targets, secondary corrective moves are necessary. This is my trading scenario for gold in the coming sessions. Take it as reference and share your thoughts in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
Bitcoin – Technical Outlook for the New WeekBitcoin – Technical Outlook for the New Week Hello traders, BTC continues to follow the expected path. On the chart, price has held steady after breaking down from the rising channel, and the medium-term bearish structure on the H4 timeframe remains in play. For the longer term, we would still need to see breaks of major supports on higher timeframes to confirm that deeper downside is possible. But for now, the structure remains unchanged from my previous analysis. Short zone: still valid around 111k Long zone: still valid around 105k As the new week begins, BTC may consolidate further for another 1–2 sessions to build liquidity before showing its next clear move. This is my updated technical view for BTC – take it as reference, and plan your trades with discipline. What’s your outlook for this week? Share your thoughts in the comments.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
Gold Trading Scenario – Start of the WeekGold Trading Scenario – Start of the Week Hello traders, A new week begins with gold holding above the 34xx zone, establishing a fresh value area. The current structure has already broken through major resistance levels on the higher timeframe – including trendline and H4 barriers – confirming strong bullish momentum. The uptrend played out exactly as expected, reaching the target around 3450 (specifically 3454). Now price is seeing a mild pullback. This will only be considered a trend reversal if price breaks below 3404. Otherwise, it is just a secondary correction as per Dow theory. Wave 5 may be complete, but the ABC structure is still unclear. For that reason, the plan is to continue with long positions in line with the trend, which increases the probability of success. Buy zone for today: 3408–3412, an area where sellers previously failed at resistance and which was broken through the trendline on Friday. This is my outlook for Monday, viewed from a medium-term perspective. Take it as reference, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital