Energy Commodities

WTI Crude: The Hormuz Premium Is Back WTI Crude Oil (4H) | Bias: Bullish while the war premium holds — but headline risk cuts both ways | Key driver: US–Iran conflict The Setup This chart tells one story: war. WTI round-tripped from the low-$80s in mid-June down to ~$68 by early July, then ripped back to ~$82 in about two weeks — a near-20-point round trip in five weeks, on a 4H chart that's basically been trading Strait of Hormuz headlines rather than fundamentals. The pullback in the middle of that recovery held almost exactly at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before buyers took control again. This is a geopolitical tape right now, not a technical one, and it needs to be read that way. 🔍 Technical Read Structure: Sharp decline (~$82 → ~$68) into early July, followed by an impulsive V-recovery back to current levels near $81–82. The key technical tell: the corrective pullback after the first bounce off the lows found support almost exactly at the 61.8% retracement (~$71), right inside the $70.60–$71.90 zone that's been defended more than once. Textbook trend-continuation behavior. Current position: price is testing the recent swing high (~$83), right at the top of the post-recovery range. Momentum: daily technical/moving-average models are flashing a "Strong Buy" read, consistent with the strength of this move. What would change the picture: a clean break and close back below the $71–72 zone undoes the bullish structure and re-opens the $68–69 lows. 📰 Fundamental Backdrop The war is the whole trade right now: The conflict: The US–Iran war broke out February 28, 2026, and has flared, cooled, and flared again since. The current leg is acute, the US has struck Iran for six consecutive days (surveillance, air-defense, and logistics targets, including the Chah Bahar port surveillance tower), Iran has hit back at US-linked targets in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, and Washington has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Why WTI cares : roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through it has collapsed since the latest escalation, and that supply-disruption fear, not demand or inventories, is what's driving this chart. The dip to $68 explained: in late June/early July, a partial de-escalation let Hormuz traffic start recovering, and oil fell back toward pre-war-resumption levels. OPEC+'s seven core members even used that calmer window to approve another 188,000 bpd output increase for August. Days later, the ceasefire collapsed and the rally back to $82 began. OPEC+'s response is mostly symbolic. The group has raised output targets for five straight months, but Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, three of the seven core members — all rely on the Strait for exports. Raising quotas while the chokepoint is disrupted doesn't add real barrels to the market; it's positioning for whenever the strait normalizes. No ceasefire in sight. Negotiations have stalled, and Washington has signaled talks aren't the near-term priority, with some reporting suggesting US operations could expand further. 🎯 Levels That Matter Resistance / current test zone: $82 – $83 Bullish structure support: $71 – $72 (61.8% Fib + defended demand zone) Invalidation for the bull case: sustained close below $71 Deeper support if that breaks: $68 – $69 📅 Catalyst Watch This is a headline-risk market, not a data-calendar one: Escalation risk (bullish for price): a confirmed tanker loss, a formal Hormuz closure attempt, or a strike on major energy infrastructure. De-escalation risk (bearish for price): any credible ceasefire signal — we've already seen how fast that can send price back toward $68–69. Weekly EIA inventory data is still on the calendar, but right now it's background noise next to the war headlines. 💭 My Take Respect the trend while it's intact, the tape is bullish and the $71–72 zone has done its job twice now. But this isn't a "set and forget" trade. A single ceasefire headline erased a $14 rally once already this cycle, and it can do it again. Smaller size, wider stops, and a plan for both directions matter more here than picking a side. Not financial advice. posted for discussion and educational purposes. Headline-driven markets move fast in both directions; manage risk accordingly.

MCX crude-oil futures CME Group's NYMEX, benchmark WTI crude oil Crude oil, after struggling for almost 3 days in uncertainty, gave a bullish bounce last Friday - on news of intensifying war in the Gulf region. Although with that bounce - the prices tested a confluence of resistance, including the golden fib zone and an important fair value gap The prices are also making a bearish divergence with the prices We have used a monthly anchored VWAP - and the prices are expected to retest the VWAP near fib level 0.236 (7116) Alternative Scenario: Considering war news & rumors driving the oil market - oil may continue to rise higher, bypassing the technical analysis @kunarrahul2001

by tanmay_agrawal

Oil Fell 37% While the Hormuz Blockade Was Still On OANDA:BCOUSD The Market Already Faded One Hormuz Blockade. This Time Is Different - Maybe. -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE OBSERVATION Brent peaked near $112 in mid-May. By July 1 it traded at roughly $70.50. That is a 37% collapse in six weeks. Here is the part worth sitting with: THE BLOCKADE NEVER LIFTED. The Strait of Hormuz has been contested since late February. Through the entire 37% decline, the disruption was still there. What changed was not the physical situation. What changed was that progress toward a US-Iran settlement drained the premium out of the price while the underlying condition stayed exactly the same. That is not a market being irrational. That is a market telling you precisely how it prices geopolitical disruption: as a decaying option, not as a permanent cost. Remember that number. 37% in six weeks, with the disruption intact. It is the base rate for everything that follows. -------------------------------------------------------------------- WHAT JUST HAPPENED On July 13 the US reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping and - the part almost nobody read carefully - imposed a 20% toll on cargo transiting the strait. Brent bounced from roughly $77 to $87.50. It now sits at $85.41. Look at what that bounce actually is. It retraced roughly 40% of the May-to-July collapse and stopped. RSI is at 50. Dead neutral. The market absorbed the news in 48 hours and went flat. The market has already decided. It is pricing this as another decaying option, because that is what the last one was. -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE ARGUMENT AGAINST THE MARKET Here is the case that this time is structurally different, and I want to be clear that the tape currently disagrees with me. A blockade and a toll are different financial objects. A BLOCKADE is binary and reversible. It resolves on diplomacy. Its half-life is a news cycle. Fading it has been profitable for decades because the thing genuinely does go away - and we just watched exactly that happen, in public, over six weeks. A TOLL is an ad valorem charge on every future cargo. It does not resolve on a handshake. It gets capitalised - into freight rates, into war-risk insurance, into the landed cost of roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. It is a step in the cost curve, not a spike on the chart. If that distinction is real, then the fade works on the wrong component of the move. The spike decays and the step remains, and $85 is a floor rather than a lower high. If it is not real - if the toll is rhetoric that is never enforced - then this is May all over again, and the base rate says $75 and then lower. -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE VARIABLE THAT DECIDES IT Not the Fed. Not OPEC. Not the next Truth Social post. Washington says the strait is open. Tehran says vessels must transit channels it controls. On paper both can keep making the case forever. On the water, the verdict belongs to SHIPOWNERS, INSURERS AND CREWS being asked to sail through an active military standoff. Whether vessels move. Whether underwriters will write the risk. Whether the rules of passage survive the next strike. That is the observable, and it is not the oil price. WATCH WAR-RISK INSURANCE PREMIA FOR GULF TRANSITS, AND WATCH WHETHER TANKER DAY RATES HOLD THEIR ELEVATION AFTER THE NEXT DE-ESCALATION HEADLINE. If the spike fades and the rates do not, the step function is real and it is being capitalised in front of you while everyone stares at the front-month contract. If the rates fade with the spike, the market was right, I was wrong, and the toll was a headline. -------------------------------------------------------------------- WHERE THIS DOESN'T GO Consensus base case is $75-85. Note where we are: $85.41. At the TOP of that band, not through it. The road to triple digits needs more than a toll - sustained disruption to tanker traffic, damage to production infrastructure, or simultaneous trouble at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. There is also a political governor. With US midterms approaching, triple-digit oil is a tax on consumers, corporate margins and the inflation outlook. Washington has a strong incentive to prevent that, and that incentive is a real constraint on the upside case - not a detail. -------------------------------------------------------------------- WHAT WOULD PROVE ME WRONG - The toll is never enforced. It becomes rhetoric and I built an argument on a press release. - Insurers and shipowners keep sailing at normal rates. Then the risk is immaterial and the toll is noise. - Brent breaks $77 and takes out the July 9 low. That is the fade completing, and the base rate wins. The cleanest disconfirmation is the simplest: if this looks like May by August, I was wrong about the mechanism, not just the timing. -------------------------------------------------------------------- WHAT I DON'T KNOW I have the price. I do not have war-risk premia or tanker day rates, which is where this thesis actually lives or dies. Everything above is a structural argument built on the price series and a policy document - which is not the same as evidence. I am also aware that the tape currently disagrees with me. RSI 50, a stalled bounce, and a 37% precedent all say fade. That is either the opportunity or the refutation, and I do not get to decide which. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis of market conditions. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, not a signal. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.

US OIL ANALYSIS on H4 Chart Crude Oil made a strong recovery after testing the recent lows near 67.50 and is now testing a major resistance zone around $80.70. The resistance is confluent with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 50 & 200-day EMA. While the rebound has improved near-term sentiment, price is approaching a critical supply area where sellers may re-emerge. A decisive breakout above resistance could accelerate gains, particularly if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate again, but a minor correction cannot be rejected considering the technical set-up. RSI has rebounded sharply above 70, entered the overbought zone. RSI also forms a bearish divergence with the price, suggesting upside momentum may begin to weaken unless buyers secure a confirmed breakout above resistance.

by tanmay_agrawal

FALLING WEDGE REVERSAL US OIL (11 JULY 2026)US Oil is currently trading inside a well-defined falling wedge structure on the 30-minute timeframe. After an impulsive bullish move, price entered a controlled corrective phase, creating lower highs and lower lows while gradually losing bearish momentum. According to the Market Footprinting Trading Concept, this type of compression often represents institutional accumulation rather than trend continuation. The highlighted demand zones below the wedge act as important reversal footprints, where buyers may absorb selling pressure before initiating the next expansion phase. As long as these zones remain respected, the probability favors a bullish reversal during the coming week. Market Footprinting Analysis Price is approaching the lower boundary of the falling wedge. Bearish momentum is weakening despite the downward structure. The marked demand zones represent potential institutional buying areas. A breakout above the wedge resistance would confirm a shift in market structure. The projected upside targets are the previous swing highs followed by higher resistance levels. Entry Strategy Primary Entry Wait for price to react from the highlighted reversal zone. Take entry only after a 5-Minute Initial Reversal (I.R.) confirmation. Confirmation should include bullish rejection, strong reversal candles, and buying momentum from the demand zone. Risk Management Avoid buying before confirmation. Place Stop Loss below the confirmed reversal structure. Scale profits at nearby resistance and trail the remaining position after momentum confirmation. Trading Plan Bias: Bullish Structure: Falling Wedge Reversal Confirmation: 5-Minute Initial Reversal (I.R.) Expected Direction: Upward expansion during the coming week Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects the Market Footprinting Trading Concept. Always manage your risk and wait for confirmation before entering any trade.

by Yashkhajania

WTI Crude Oil: Why I'm Still Targeting the $56 Region The recent bounce ON OIL doesn't change my overall outlook. Instead, I see it as a corrective retracement within a broader bearish trend. As long as price continues respecting the current market structure, I'm expecting sellers to regain control. My focus remains on the $56–53 demand zone, where I believe price could seek liquidity before a more meaningful reaction. • Price continues to respect the bearish daily structure. • The current rally looks more like a retracement than a trend reversal. • Recent lower highs suggest sellers are still defending premium prices. • The $56–53 region remains a key liquidity target and major support zone. Fundamental Perspective: Crude oil continues to face several headwinds that could keep pressure on prices: * OPEC+ supply decisions remain a key factor in market sentiment. * Slower global economic growth could weigh on future oil demand. * Rising inventories often signal weaker consumption relative to supply. * Geopolitical developments can create short-term volatility, but sustained trends are still driven by supply and demand fundamentals. While these factors can shift over time, price action remains my primary guide. Until buyers reclaim key resistance and invalidate the current bearish structure, I continue to favor downside region.

ONGC Weekly | Long Term Trendline Support Test — Decision Point Overview Oil & Natural Gas Corporation — one of India's largest PSU energy companies — is currently testing a critical long term rising trendline on the Weekly chart. This trendline has supported ONGC's price structure since 2020 and is now being tested for the first time in recent memory, making the current price zone one of the most important levels on ONGC's chart. The Long Term Rising Trendline Since the 2020 low of ₹50, ONGC has been rising within a well-defined uptrend, supported by a clean rising trendline connecting each major swing low over 5+ years. This trendline has held through multiple market cycles — commodity cycles, global rate changes, and sector rotations. Current price at ₹235 is sitting right at this trendline — making this a critical weekly support test. The EMA Structure Two EMAs provide additional context: 📉 50 Weekly EMA at ₹259 — price is currently below the 50 Weekly EMA, which has now turned into resistance. This is a bearish signal on the weekly timeframe. 📉 200 Weekly EMA at ₹229 — price is approaching the 200 Weekly EMA from above. A close below this level would be a significant long term bearish signal for ONGC. The confluence of the long term trendline + 200 Weekly EMA in the ₹227–229 zone creates a powerful support cluster just below current price. Key Levels 🔴 Resistance 1 — 259 (50 Weekly EMA) 🔴 Resistance 2 — 300 🔴 Resistance 3 — 345 (Recent High) 🟡 Current Price — 235 🟢 Trendline Support — 227 (approx) 🟢 200 Weekly EMA — 229 🟢 Major Psychological Support — 200 Two Scenarios 🟢 Scenario A — Trendline Holds Price finds support at the trendline + 200 Weekly EMA confluence zone (₹227–229) and bounces. First recovery target is reclaiming the 50 Weekly EMA at ₹259, then ₹300, and eventually a retest of the recent high at ₹345. This would be a classic long term trendline bounce — a high significance level for positional and long term traders. 🔴 Scenario B — Trendline Breaks A weekly close below ₹227 breaks both the long term trendline and the 200 Weekly EMA simultaneously. This would be a major structural breakdown for ONGC — signaling a potential shift in the long term trend. The ₹200 psychological support becomes the next key reference level. Why This Level Matters A trendline that has held for 5+ years carries enormous significance. Every time it has been tested, buyers have stepped in. The current test is happening simultaneously with the 200 Weekly EMA — creating a double confluence support zone. When two independent long term support structures align at the same price, the reaction from that zone tends to be decisive in either direction. Conclusion ONGC is at a technically significant junction on the Weekly chart. The long term rising trendline and 200 Weekly EMA are both being tested simultaneously near ₹227–229. How price reacts at this confluence will define ONGC's trajectory for the coming months. Watch the weekly close carefully — it will tell the next chapter. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.

Crude Turbulence. Hey Folks, Today I see a long opportunity in Crude futures with price moving near a good support of ₹6760. The price has took a major hit since last US-Iran talks in Islamabad. The global Price of Oil is now back to ~$73/barrel which is the same as pre-war price, as of Tuesday, 24June. Now the fut price can be seen trailing with 21 EMA, and now moving well below 21ema at 4h TF. But as of tuesday the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has sparked again, which can cause the strait disruption again and that would lead to the a good oil rally if this intensifies more. As of now, looking technically, the price can move upward to ₹7300 if the support absorbs the selling at current level. So Key Risks to watch - Lebanon wildcard: Israel–Hezbollah fighting keeps threatening to unravel the MOU. Iran has made a full Lebanon truce a condition for a permanent deal. Nuclear inspections dispute: Iran is denying US claims that it agreed to let IAEA inspectors return — a major sticking point. 60-day clock(from MOU signed): The ceasefire and Hormuz opening framework must be converted into a permanent deal within 60 days, or Trump has said attacks could resume. My Position - Long(BUY) at the current price level. with strict SL of ₹6750. other exit to be decided based on the reversal momentum and geopolitical events. Thank you. Happy Trading :)

USOIL Weak Bounce Keeps Sellers in Control USOIL is not crashing anymore, but the recovery attempts remain weak. Price is struggling near the lows, and the $74.50–75.70 area may act as a good retest zone if oil rebounds. The fundamental backdrop is also not supportive. Easing US-Iran tensions reduce supply-risk premium, while the smaller-than-expected US inventory draw limits bullish momentum. Trade Setup: Sell Zone: $74.50 – $75.70 Stop Loss: $77.20 Take Profit 1: $72.00 Take Profit 2: $70.00

Crude Analysis The current ~$80 acted as a resistance multiple times pre-conflict, so I expect it to take some support at the current levels. $70 is a multi-year support level and in fact the recent rally fuelled to $120 after the strong breakout and retest from this level. On the otherside, $92 can continue to act as a resistance level in the near term. Let me know your thoughts/feedback.

by jayaprakash99

21/06/2026 Crude Oil Analysis NYMEX:CL1! My expectation is for Crude Oil to retrace into its Daily FVG before making its next significant move.

HOW-TO: Trade Crude Oil Using Support & Resistance Levels This educational tutorial explains how support and resistance (S/R) levels are used to trade crude oil futures. S/R levels are one of the most reliable tools for oil trading because they provide exact price points for entries, exits, and stop-loss placement . Markets: MCX Crude Oil, WTI, Brent Timeframe: 15-minute to daily Part 1: Why S/R Works for Crude Oil Crude oil is highly volatile and sensitive to geopolitical events and OPEC+ decisions . This volatility creates strong reactions at key technical levels. S/R levels are empirical — calculated by external indicators like pivot points, Fibonacci tools, and moving averages. They generate exact price points that leave little room for error . Key Upsides of S/R in Oil Trading : Precision: Exact price points below (support) and above (resistance) price Market entry/exit: Ideal for identifying entry/exit points and profit targets Complementary: Works well with momentum oscillators and fundamental data Part 2: How S/R Levels Are Identified Professional traders draw S/R using : Methods: Horizontal levels from swing highs and swing lows Moving averages (dynamic support/resistance) Trendlines Fibonacci retracement levels Pivot points The Flip Zone Concept : A resistance level, after a successful breakout, turns into support A support level, after a breakdown, turns into resistance This is called "Change of Polarity" Part 3: The Three Trading Strategies Strategy 1: Bounce from Support Setup: Price approaches a key support zone Entry: After bullish candle confirmation at support Stop Loss: Below the support level Target: Next resistance level Best for: Range-bound markets Strategy 2: Rejection from Resistance Setup: Price approaches a key resistance zone Entry: After bearish candle confirmation at resistance Stop Loss: Above the resistance level Target: Next support level Best for: Range-bound markets Strategy 3: Breakout/Flip Zone Trade Setup: Price breaks through support or resistance with momentum Entry: On retest of the flipped level (support becomes resistance, or resistance becomes support) Stop Loss: Beyond the flip zone Target: Next major S/R level Best for: Trending markets Part 4: Current Market Example Current MCX Crude Setup : Support: Near 5162-5165 (low of bullish Marubozu candle) Resistance: 5280-5330-5400 Range-bound movement: Between short-term 10 and 20 DEMA lines without firm direction What this tells a trader: Multiple support levels at 5165-5150 offer a favorable risk-reward setup for bulls Resistance is seen at 5280-5330-5400 Any close below 5130 would invalidate bullish view Part 5: How to Place Orders Pro Tip: Since there is a concentration of buyers and sellers at S/R levels, there is a lot of liquidity around these points. It is not wise to place orders right at the level — always keep a buffer . Sample Trade Setups : Buying Support: If price rejects several times from resistance and finally breaks out, wait for a successful retest of the flipped level before going long. This avoids fake breakouts. Selling Resistance: If price breaks down through support, wait for a successful retest of the flipped level before going short. This avoids bear traps. Disclaimer This is for educational purposes only. Crude oil trading involves high risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Users are responsible for their own trading decisions.

The Gold Paradox: How the U.S.-Iran Peace Deal is Rewiring GOLD Take a look at the attached 4H chart. We are currently trading at $4,177.03, sitting right in the crosshairs of a massive institutional liquidity hunt. While the lower timeframes look incredibly messy, the higher timeframe structure is telling a very clear story. Below is the exact technical breakdown of the levels I am watching, followed by the major macroeconomic shifts—and current geopolitical uncertainties—driving this entire move. 📊 1. Technical Analysis: Chart Breakdown & Key Levels The market is currently trapped in a direct battle between two major institutional structural zones. 🔍 Key Structural Elements on My Chart: The Buy-Side Liquidity Sweeps: Notice the clean engineering of equal highs around the $4,360 resistance level. The market repeatedly swept these highs to grab retail buy-stops before plunging aggressively downward. The Failed 4H POI Support ($4,220) zone: The market briefly reacted to the intermediate Point of Interest (POI) near $4,220 zone, but intense selling pressure completely violated this zone, turning it into a breaker/resistance block. The Target Below (Trendline Liquidity): Right now, the price is hovering just above the retail trendline support. This represents a massive pool of trapped retail buyer liquidity. The market is highly likely to sweep below this line to flush out late buyers. 🗺️ My Two Planned Trade Scenarios: The HTF Sweep & Reclaim (Bullish Path): If the price dives to sweep the $4,168 level on the higher timeframe but fails to close the 4H candle below it, it will signal a massive institutional liquidity grab. If the candle closes back above $4,168, leaving a long wick behind, I expect to see the price aggressively push back upward toward our higher targets. The 4H Break, Retest & Go (Bearish Continuation Path) : If the price breaks below $4,168 and secures a solid 4H candle body close underneath it, the structural bias shifts short-term. I will then look for a clean retest of that broken $4,168 level as a new resistance block, followed by a continuation downward toward our next major POI at $4,095, where the price is highly likely to find its next solid demand hold. 🛢️ 2. The Macro Driver: Why Gold Traders MUST Watch Crude Oil Now, let's look at why this technical volatility is happening. If you are trading XAUUSD exclusively, you might look at headlines about the U.S.–Iran interim peace agreement and think it only matters for oil charts. That is a dangerous trap. Crude oil is the ultimate driver of global inflation expectations. The electronic signing of the interim MoU stripped the geopolitical risk premium out of the energy markets, causing crude oil prices to dump to a two-month low. Under normal retail logic, people assume: Peace deal ➔ Risk off ➔ Gold should crash with Oil. But the market has thrown a massive curveball, creating The Gold Paradox. 🟡 3. The Gold Paradox & "Implementation Friction" By causing oil to crash, this peace deal didn't kill gold; it actually released a massive macroeconomic bottleneck that had been holding gold back: The War Inflation Ceiling: During the heights of the Middle East friction, skyrocketing oil prices drove global forward-inflation expectations through the roof. This forced the Federal Reserve to maintain a fiercely hawkish stance. The Opportunity Cost: Since Gold is a non-yielding asset, the threat of a prolonged Fed rate cycle put a massive institutional ceiling on XAUUSD, capping its upside. The Shift: Now that oil has dumped, long-term inflation expectations are dropping. This takes the immediate pressure off the Fed, signaling that the peak of the interest rate cycle is firmly in place and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. ⚠️ The New Twist: Diplomatic Delays While the digital peace agreement is signed and the U.S. naval blockade is actively lifting, the face-to-face technical and nuclear talks in Switzerland scheduled for this weekend have run into sudden delays/Called off. The Iranian delegation temporarily suspended their departure due to escalating friction in Southern Lebanon, and the U.S. White House has postponed Vice President J.D. Vance's flight, citing fluid logistics. This "Implementation Friction" means nothing is set in stone yet. The market hates uncertainty, which is adding fuel to the current intraday volatility. The Macro Chain Reaction: Oil Crashes ➔ Forward Inflation Expectations Drop ➔ Fed Pressure Eases ➔ Treasury Yields Peak ➔ Opportunity Cost of Gold Drops ➔ XAUUSD Long-Term Upside ⚠️ My Execution Takeaway for Today We are looking at a direct algorithmic battle between the long-term disinflation narrative (bullish gold), short-term hawkish Fed comments, and immediate geopolitical confusion surrounding the Swiss diplomatic timeline. This narrative clash is exactly why the market is delivering these massive, violent liquidity sweeps across our key structural zones. Do not chase momentum blindly in the middle of this range. Stick to strict position sizing (1–2% max risk), let the market sweep the retail pools marked on my chart, and execute only when price action aligns with our major high-timeframe POIs. What’s your take? Are you waiting to buy the deep sweep at the $4,167 level, or are you shorting the breakdown right now? Let me know in the comments below! Manage your risk, and trade safe. ⚠️ Absolute Risk Warning Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Geopolitical milestones and central bank decisions carry extreme financial risk. Protect your capital, monitor structural closes on the higher timeframes, and manage your risk defensively.

Crude Oil Trading at Critical Zone Crude Oil at a Critical Support Zone | 1-Hour Timeframe Analysis: Crude Oil is currently trading near a strong support zone on the 1-hour timeframe. If the price breaks below this support level, we could see a sharp bearish move (for 5500). However, if the support holds and buyers step in, a reversal is likely. In that case, the next upside target could be the resistance zone around 7800–7900. Keep an eye on price action near the support area, as it may determine the next major move.

by trailingtradesc85cd5c9f87345fb

CrudeOil CrudeOil – 2 hourly Wyckoff Distribution (Schematic #2) in Play Crudeoil's 2hr structure appears to be unfolding as a Wyckoff Distribution – Schematic #2, suggesting a transition from demand dominance to supply control. Key observations from the chart: Preliminary Supply (PSY) marked the first sign of large supply entering after a strong uptrend. Buying Climax (BC) followed by an Automatic Reaction (AR) confirmed the start of a trading range. Secondary Test (ST) failed to make new highs, indicating weakening demand. Upthrust (UT) and subsequent Lower Highs (LPSY) signal repeated absorption of demand by smart money. Recent breakdown below the range indicates Sign of Weakness (SOW) and confirms Phase D/E behavior. 📉 Implication: The structure favors distribution completion, with risk skewed to the downside unless price reclaims the prior range convincingly. 📌 Key levels to watch: Breakdown area as resistance Major demand zone near ₹7330–₹6150 (support) This is a reminder that time spent at the top often precedes the move down.

Usoil WTI CRUDE OIL — Weekly Outlook | 30M Structure 🗓️ Crude Oil has seen a sharp sell-off driven by easing geopolitical tensions, with price now consolidating near a key intraday support zone. The 30M structure is setting up a multi-step path — bounces followed by continued downside pressure. 📌 Key Levels: 🔺 Bounce Targets — 82.035 → 83.150 🔻 Downside Targets — 78.220 → 76.570 📐 Structure: After a significant drop, price is compressing near the 80.350 zone. A short-term relief bounce toward 82.035 is expected, followed by rejection and a push higher to 83.150. From that level sellers are anticipated to step in hard, driving price through support toward 78.220 and ultimately 76.570 — a key horizontal support level. The overall bias remains bearish on intraday timeframes as long as price holds below the daily and weekly resistance zones above. ⚠️ Macro This Week: A US-Iran peace deal appears imminent — Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed a deal has been reached, with a signing ceremony expected in Switzerland. This is the primary driver behind Oil’s sharp decline, as a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would restore roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Additionally, the Fed interest rate decision and IEA monthly report this week will add further volatility. Oil has already fallen 6% last week but remains over 20% higher since the conflict began. 📖 Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.

by Triple7Capital

Oil Since June 2026, the stock has been trading below a long-term trendline that connects the major lows of March 2020, September 2022, and January 2026, indicating a potential deterioration in the primary uptrend. A notable bearish signal had already emerged in August–September 2024, where the August open and September close formed a bearish tweezer pattern around the 552 level, highlighting strong resistance and a possible trend reversal zone. From a price-action perspective, any recovery rally toward the 460 region could provide an opportunity for investors to reassess or reduce exposure. However, a decisive breakdown below the 390–370 support zone may strengthen bearish control and increase the probability of further downside. The key factor that could negate this bearish outlook is time correction rather than price correction—if the stock consolidates for an extended period and rebuilds strength without violating critical support levels, it may avoid a deeper decline and potentially set the stage for a renewed uptrend. This remains a technical observation based on chart structure and trend analysis, and not a buy or sell recommendation.

OIL: Massive Box Accumulation and Explosive Breakaway Gap 1. The Macro Perspective: The Washing Machine Base I am taking a LONG bias on Oil India Limited (OIL) on the daily (1D) timeframe. When analyzing pure market structure, some of the most violent and profitable momentum thrusts originate from prolonged periods of sideways consolidation. Look at the structural development perfectly highlighted by the green shaded box on this chart. After an initial run-up, the stock entered a highly volatile horizontal channel. Sellers repeatedly defended the box ceiling at the solid black 508.40 line, while buyers aggressively defended the floor near the 450.00 level. This sideways, choppy action is the ultimate "washing machine"—it frustrates impatient retail traders into capitulating, allowing heavy institutional capital to quietly absorb shares at a discount over several months. 2. The Educational Setup: The Horizontal Pressure Cooker To understand the sheer strength of this current breakout, look at the mechanics of the box leading up to the launch: The Squeeze: By trapping the price in a strictly defined range for months, the stock acts like a pressure cooker. It digests previous gains, allows moving averages to catch up, and stores immense kinetic energy. The Institutional Urgency: Look at how the stock cleared the 508.40 resistance zone on the far right. It didn't just casually drift higher. The stock opened significantly higher, completely skipping over the resistance line. In technical analysis, this is called a "Breakaway Gap." It indicates extreme institutional urgency—buyers wanted in so badly that they refused to wait for the market to open at the previous close, instantly blowing past all remaining historical supply. 3. Current Price Action: Blue Sky Territory Look at that floating candle currently trading near the 517.00 mark. A breakaway gap from a massive, multi-month accumulation box is one of the most bullish signals in trading. It traps everyone who was shorting the 508.40 resistance and forces them to scramble to cover their positions, adding extreme fuel to the fire. By definitively clearing this box, OIL has officially entered "Blue Sky Territory" (pure price discovery). 4. The Trade Plan: Entries, Targets, and Risk Management Entry Strategy: Momentum is at extreme levels right now. Chasing a massive gap-up always carries intraday risk. The highest-probability, lowest-risk entry involves waiting for the stock to naturally digest this move. Look to place limit orders to catch a potential "Gap Fill" or structural retest of the top of the box in the 500.00 to 510.00 zone. Letting that old heavy box resistance prove itself as a new, indestructible support floor offers a phenomenal risk-to-reward ratio. Take Profit (Targets): We use measured structural targets based on the depth of the consolidation box. By taking the depth of the box (roughly 58 points from the 450 floor to the 508.40 ceiling) and projecting it upward from the breakout line, our primary structural swing target sits perfectly in the 565.00 to 570.00 zone. The massive 600.00 century mark acts as the longer-term psychological magnet. Invalidation (Stop Loss): A gap-and-go box breakout thesis is only valid if the stock refuses to fall back into the trap. A hard stop loss should be placed safely below the gap and inside the top quarter of the box, around the 480.00 to 490.00 level. A definitive daily close completely back inside the middle of the box would act as a massive warning sign of a failed breakout and a severe bull trap. 5. Time Horizon: Because this technical setup is built on a 1-Day chart capturing an explosive breakaway gap from a massive multi-month consolidation box, this is a short-to-medium-term swing trade designed to capture the violent momentum thrust into new highs. Let the new trend run!

by ParamjitMahapatro

Crude oil short Crude oil has made a failure of breakout and can be looked for short oppurunitites at the given level

The Pennant that's Causing Indecision: The Case of Crude Oil In remembrance of Sir Charles Dow (the father of Technical Analysis) , it is evident from Crude Oil's chart that " PRICE DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING. " Presently, crude oil is trading in a highly indecisive zone , the same as the state of geopolitical issues. Nobody knows exactly what's going on in the Middle East War and how the war would impact oil prices. Technical Analysis is Peace: Amidst all the confusion and uncertainty, technical analysis offers peace and clarity. The Crude Oil price structure discounts all global factors into a chart pattern. Technical analysts can directly refer to the chart (instead of news) to conclude that the crude oil price is under a state of confusion. Also, there is no trend in the instrument. The Pennant Pattern: A pennant chart pattern is a technical analysis continuation signal comprised of a flagpole and a consolidation period with converging trend lines. The pattern shows a tough fight between the bulls and bears, with no clear winner. It is a state of confusion and a major consolidation. Presently, the crude oil chart is in a state of confusion and a major consolidation. Zone of Indecision (ZOI) : (105 - 85). The crude oil is volatile in a wide range of (105 - 85). Here, the median of the range-bound consolidation is 95. It is an estimate that if the price sustains below the level of 95, then there is a higher probability of the crude oil price going down (maybe below 85). However, if the price sustains above the level of 95, then we might lose bearish optimism (i.e., the crude oil might again be bullish). Presently, we have to wait for a breakout or breakdown from the ZOI for trend confirmation. The crude oil is not in a state of trend trading. In this scenario, the non-directional traders are winning the game. Strong Resistance Zone: (105 - 95). The crude oil has received severe rejection from the zone (105 - 95). For the price to enter into a bullish zone, the price needs to break out above the level (105 - 95). In the present scenario, doubt all the upmove. Strong Support Zone: (90 - 85). The crude oil has received good support from the zone (90 - 85) every time it has fallen. For the price to enter into a decisive bearish trend zone, the price needs to break down below the level (90 - 85). Bullish Scenario: A Decisive Breakout above the level 105 Confident bulls would emerge the moment the price gives a decisive breakout above the level 105. The bullish targets above the level 105 are - 110 and 115. Bearish Scenario: A Decisive Breakdown below the level 85 Confident bears would emerge the moment the price gives a decisive breakdown below the level 85. The bearish targets below the level 85 are - 80 and 75. Disclaimer: (i) The post is purely based on technical and chart analysis. The author has not studied the fundamentals. Thus, any fundamental or macroeconomic event can disrupt chart analysis. (ii) The author has no intention to promote buy or sell recommendations. (iii) The post is only for educational purposes. (iv) The intent of the post surrounds trading levels only and not investment ideas. (v) Novice traders should stick to the cash segment for swing trading instead of F&O. This post has no intention to promote F&O trading. (vi) Please be mindful during trading and investment decisions. Be Responsible. Happy Trading!

by deep_bhattacharjee_db

ATGL - Adani Total Gas Limited I could see new highs getting formed and if allowed then can take a risk of previous bottom as SL and ride the new upcoming trend !

by piyushbafna000

Crude oil is attempting to stabilize near a key demand zone After a sharp decline last week, crude oil is attempting to stabilize near a key demand zone between 8,200 and 8,400. This area has attracted buyers multiple times, suggesting that institutions may be defending these levels. The recent bounce indicates that sellers are losing momentum in the short term. However, the market is still trading below a major supply zone between 8,850 and 9,250, where previous rallies have faced heavy selling pressure. As long as price remains below 8,850, this move should be viewed as a recovery rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Buyers need to push through the supply zone to regain control and shift market sentiment. From a supply and demand perspective: • Demand Zone: 8,200 – 8,400 • Supply Zone: 8,850 – 9,250 A successful hold above demand could lead to another test of the supply area. On the other hand, a breakdown below 8,200 would signal that sellers remain in control and could open the path toward the 7,800 region. Trading Lesson: Supply and demand zones often reveal institutional activity before the broader market recognizes a shift. Instead of chasing price, watch how it reacts when it reaches these zones. The reaction is usually more important than the level itself.

by CandlesAndCashflows

Crude Oil Daily Update MCX Crude closed at 8,622 (-4.35%) after a decisive breakdown below rising trendline support. The market rejected the 9,000–10,000 supply region aggressively, signaling: • weakening demand confidence • long liquidation • fading bullish momentum Key resistance: 8,714 → 9,304 Key supports: 8,500 → 8,300 → 8,060 Below 8,714, structure remains weak and rallies may face selling pressure. This decline is not just about supply. Oil is beginning to price: • softer global growth expectations • demand uncertainty • tighter liquidity conditions Energy markets weaken fastest when demand credibility starts fading.

by CandlesAndCashflows