EUR/USD to Tackle Fed Fear and Eye $1.08 on Easing Bank CrisisIt is a relatively busy day ahead for the EUR/USD. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will draw interest today. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (SBNY), economic sentiment figures are likely to weaken.
Economists forecast the German Economic Sentiment Index to fall from 28.1 to 17.1 in March, with the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index to slide from 29.7 to 16.0.
This morning, the EUR/USD was down 0.03% to $1.07144. A mixed start to the day saw the EUR/USD rise to an early high of $1.07260 before falling to a low of $1.07096.
The EUR/USD needs to avoid the $1.0693 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0755. A move through the Monday high of $1.07308 would signal a bullish session. However, the EUR/USD would need hawkish ECB chatter and better-than-expected ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers to support a breakout session.
In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0793 and resistance at $1.08. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0892.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0655 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the EUR/USD pair should avoid sub-$1.06 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0593. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0494.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bullish signals. The EUR/USD sits above the 50-day EMA ($1.06562). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1.06562) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0755) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($1.0793) and $1.08. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1.06562) would bring S1 ($1.0655) and the 200-day ($1.06533) and 100-day ($1.06517) EMAs into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
