EURUSD-2
EURUSD pulls back from 200-SMA ahead of US inflation dataEURUSD defies a three-day recovery ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on early Wednesday. The major currency pair’s weakness could also be linked to the failures to cross the 200-SMA, bearish MACD signals and RSI retreat. Hence, the quote is likely to decline further towards monthly horizontal support near 1.1525-32. However, the yearly low around 1.1510 and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the September 14 to October 28 moves, near 1.1490, also joined by the March 2020 bottom, could challenge the pair bears afterward.
Meanwhile, recovery moves will be challenged by a convergence of the 200-SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September-October fall, around 1.1610. Following that, a downward sloping resistance line from September 03, around 1.1645 and late October’s swing high around 1.1695 will lure the EURUSD bulls. Should the pair buyers manage to cross the 1.1700 hurdle, backed by softer US inflation numbers, the quote may not hesitate to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1760.
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Factors:
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Technical Analysis: EURUSD is well-set for 1.1500 on NFP dayHaving failed to sustain the early October bounce, EURUSD bears are on the way to testing the March 2020 high near the 1.1500 threshold on the day of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. It should be noted, though, that the lower line of a five-month-old falling wedge, around 1.1450 at the latest, will take the help of the RSI conditions to rebound. Hence, the pair bears are in full swing but the room to the downside is limited.
Alternatively, recovery moves remain unimportant before crossing a convergence of the 50-DMA and the wedge’s upper line, around 1.1685. A daily closing beyond the same will confirm a bullish chart formation, suggesting an upswing towards a theoretical target surrounding 1.2300. However, tops marked during September and late June, respectively around 1.1910 and 1.1980, as well as the 1.2000 psychological magnet, will offer intermediate halts.
EURUSD stays inside falling wedge, US Durable Goods Orders eyedEURUSD bears take a breather around weekly low, after a two-day downtrend, during early Wednesday. Although risk-on mood helps the EURUSD to consolidate weekly losses, the likely firmer US Durable Goods Orders print keeps the bears hopeful. Additionally, the quote’s sustained trading inside a broad falling wedge since early June and a recent drop below 10-DMA joins bearish MACD signals to add technical assent to the bearish expectations. That said, the yearly low surrounding 1.1520 is on the cards ahead of the stated wedge’s support line near 1.1475. During the fall, March 2020 peak close to the 1.1490 may offer an intermediate halt.
On the contrary, an upside clearance of the 10-DMA, around 1.1620, may direct short-term buyers towards the monthly peak of 1.1668. However, bulls are less likely to take the risk of entries until witnessing a successful break of 1.1725, comprising the wedge’s resistance line. Following that, hopes of the trend reversal can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the corrective bounce following the US Durable Goods Orders should be taken with a pinch of salt as the key data/event is Thursday’s US Q3 GDP and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
EURUSD projection update!from here we might get a retrace to 1 hour 50 ema and if from there we continue up we will be going for level 3 to the upside but if we touch it and come straight down we will be breaking previous W pattern level 2 low and we will be starting new mark down phase with level 2 of M formation
EURUSD potential DUMP incoming!!broke out M pattern of 1 hour cycle exactly as projection we have reset the 1 hour cycle and we are in mark down phase now, biggest confluence - we didnt break previous high in previous mark up phase of 15 min cycle level 3 ended inside that consolidation (distribution) and went straight to mark down phase (15 min) which broke this 1 hour M pattern cycle
again exactly as projected we didnt get level 3 because of mark down phase in daily cycle
200-EMA probes EURUSD bullish consolidationAlthough Breakout-Pullback-Continuation (BPC) formation backs EURUSD bulls inside an eight-day-old rising channel, 200-EMA probes the upside momentum of late. Hence, a clear break of the stated moving average hurdle, near 1.1665 by the press time, becomes necessary to defy the sellers’ hopes. Even so, the upper line of the stated channel, near 1.1700 will be a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers ahead of targeting late September’s swing high near 1.1755.
Meanwhile, a convergence of the nearby channel and previous resistance line from September 03, near 1.1605, becomes the short-term key support for EURUSD sellers to watch during the pair’s further weakness. Should the quote drops below the 1.1605 level, also conquer the 1.1600 threshold, odds of witnessing 1.1560 and the yearly low of 1.1523 on the chart can’t be ruled out.
exactly as projected going for level 2 of 1 hour cycle (EURUSD) EURUSD broke HOD, and now going for level 2 of 1 hour cycle with 3 levels of 15 min cycle (we are currently at level 2 and might get a retrace then level 3 (15 min cycle)) + market maker is accumulation for a long time and today's stop hunt low with type 1 london pattern was a easy trade
Will EURUSD break its monthly major support level?1.16195 is a major support and resistance level on the monthly timeframe. EURUSD might struggle to break it. If it breaks, next support level is 1.14272.
Waiting for the news to come in to make the EUR stronger. Most probably this analysis will be hit by a news event. Hope for the best with the Prez's speech which is in few hours.
EURUSD projection update (Potential retrace to 1 hour 50 ema)EURUSD projection UPDATE - we have completed 1 cycle of 15 min or 1 level of 1 hour cycle (now going to 15 min 2-3 levels to the downside) which will be the retrace level 1 of 1 hour cycle then continuation to the upside for level 2 (1 hour)
EURUSD: CASE OF ENDING DIAGONALENDING DIAGONAL : This is the most common diagonal that can be found out at the ending of a main trend or main correction. It consists of all the waves 1-2-3-4-5 in a single or multiple zigzags. They can be found placed at 5th wave of an impulse wave or can been seen as a wave ‘C’ of a corrective waves zigzags or flat. After the termination of the ending diagonal , a swift & a sharp reversal takes place which bring the prices back to the level from where the diagonal began.
TRADING STRATEGY: One should go long on the current levels or any dip , keeping a stop loss of 1.15360 look for the target of 1.16400 & above.
potential EURUSD mark up phase 1 hour cycle W = 1 mark up phase + 1 mark down phase of 15 min cycles
so according to 15 min cycle (3 days drop mon tues early wed) then reversal at W then we will get mark up phase in 15 min which will break 1 hour W for mark up phase in 1 hours
and we got 3 drop and today is Wednesday!
so according to the 1 H and 15 min cycles this is the last lvl 3 drop and from this W 15 min mark up phase is perfectly aligned with 1 hour W and 1 hour mark up phase