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Preparing for the Worst: Trading Ahead of a US Debt Default"It is impossible to predict with certainty the exact date when Treasury will be unable to pay the government's bills," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a letter to Congress. Although Yellen noted a tentative date of June 1 as the due date to help spur lawmakers into action. While it is highly unlikely that the US will default on its debt, this doesn’t mean that the traders won’t make plans to deal with a default or get jittery. Two likely markets that will have to deal with the moves from these investors will be forex and gold. If uncertainties about an unprecedented potential U.S. debt default persist, the US dollar might lose some of its safe haven status which would possibly shift to gold. US President Joe Biden plans to meet with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican leader Mitch McConnell on May 9. This will be a key date to watch the US dollar and gold in case the group come to some kind of agreement to increase the debt ceiling. With the US being the bedrock of the whole world’s financial system, we might also expect to see investors' jitters manifest in offshore-based assets too. Other safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and particularly the euro might be prime candidates for inflows.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD portrays bullish consolidation ahead of ECBEURUSD recently pierced a three-week-old symmetrical triangle as the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision looms. That said, the Fed-inspired run-up impresses the Euro bulls as the pair trades successfully beyond the 200-SMA amid a firmer RSI (14) line and bullish MACD signals. As a result, the quote is well set for rising to the fresh high since late March 2022, currently around 1.1095. The same highlights the 1.1100 round figure as a lucrative stop ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves from April 03 to May 02, near 1.1130. Following that, the 78.6% FE and March 2022 peak of around 1.1180 and 1.1185 respectively could lure the pair buyers. Meanwhile, EURUSD sellers will need validation from the 200-SMA support of around 1.0915 to retake control. Even so, lows marked during April 10 and 03, close to 1.0830 and 1.0790 in that order, can check the bears before giving them control. In that case, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Euro pair’s March-April upside, surrounding 1.0735, may act as the last defense of the buyers before directing them to the YTD low marked in March around 1.0515. Overall, EURUSD buyers remain in the driver’s seat as they await the key central bank decision.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls observe inverse head-and-shoulders for major run-upEURUSD dribbles around a fresh 13-month high marked the previous day as it pokes the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders bullish chart formation, close to 1.1090 at the latest. A successful break of the said hurdle would theoretically confirm a major uptrend targeting the year 2018 peak surrounding 1.2550-60. However, tops marked during March 2022 near 1.1185 and the last year's top of 1.1495 can act as validation points for the Euro pair’s further advances. That said, the 1.2000 psychological magnet and year 2021’s peak of 1.2350 are some of the extra upside filters which can check the bulls during the anticipated north-run. On the contrary, failure to offer a decisive break beyond the 1.1090 hurdle, as well as the 1.1100 round figure, may trigger the much-awaited pullback of the EURUSD pair. Even so, the pair sellers will wait for a clear downside break of the one-month-old ascending support line, close to 1.0975 to convince the Euro sellers. In that case, the 100-DMA level of around 1.0750 may act as an intermediate halt before highlighting the lows marked in March and January of 2023, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0480. Overall, EURUSD bulls prepare for a major uptrend but a successful rise beyond 1.1100 becomes necessary for witnessing a stellar rise.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar beyond 1.0900EURUSD prins mild gains within a one-month-old bullish channel even as RSI eases from the overbought conditions. That said, the impending bear cross on the MACD joins the major currency pair’s inability to stay beyond 1.1000 to lure sellers. However, a clear downside break of the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.0900 at the latest, becomes necessary for the confirmation of downside bias. Even so, the 50-SMA and an ascending support line from early January, respectively near 1.0745 and 1.0585 in that order, appear tough nuts to crack for the pair sellers before retaking the control. Meanwhile, the EURUSD recovery needs to sustain above the 1.1000 psychological magnet to convince buyers. In that case, the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 1.1100, may test the upside momentum. Should the Euro price remains firmer past 1.1100, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its between November 10, 200 and March 15, 2023, near 1.1200, could lure the upside momentum. During the run-up, the late March 2022 top surrounding 1.1185 can act as an intermediate halt. Overall, EURUSD bulls appear to run up out of steam but the bears have a long and bumpy road before taking control.
by MTradingGlobal
Two-month-old resistance line challenges EURUSD bullsEURUSD bulls struggle at an 11-week-high as an upward-sloping trend line resistance challenges the major currency pair’s further upside around the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Adding strength to the stated resistance is the overbought RSI conditions. Even if the quote manages to cross the 1.1000 hurdle, the YTD high marked in February around 1.1035 could act as an additional upside filter for the bulls to tackle before approaching the late March 2022 peak around 1.1185. Following that, the previous yearly high of 1.1495 will be in focus. Alternatively, the EURUSD pullback could initially aim for the 1.0930 resistance-turned-support area comprising multiple levels marked in the last two months, a break of which will highlight the 100-SMA level of 1.0860 as the key support. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear downside break of 1.0860 won’t hesitate to drag the Euro pair toward the monthly low of near 1.0785. Though, the 200-SMA level of 1.0745 could restrict the quote’s south run afterward. To sum up, EURUSD bulls appear running out of steam and hence a pullback in prices can be expected. However, the bearish trend is still far from sight.
by MTradingGlobal
SCALPING EURUSD GPBUSD USDCAD XAUUSD APRIL 10th to 14thEURUSD is currently remaining below the maximum zone of the market. Sellers being preferred below 1.0930 until 1.0910 and below 1.09 until 1.0880, buyers should be wary at 1.0880. The proposed scalping strategy suggests maintaining intervals of 10 pips per entry, although depending on volume, an entry could reach up to three market intervals. At this point, there are no buying scenarios below 1.0930. However, if tomorrow's opening surpasses the maximum 1.0930, then the preference will shift towards buying up to 1.0940 and 1.0950. Keep a close eye on these intervals for successful market trading. Updates are made tomorrow on TradingView GBPUSD is currently below the 1.25 , with a preference towards selling under 1.2430 up to 1.2420, and then from 1.2420 to 1.2410. If the minimum of 1.24 is reached, selling pressure is predicted to continue until 1.2390. On the other hand, buying intervals range from 1.2340 to 1.2350. After reaching a high of 1.2550, prices may drop back to 1.2580. In terms of the USDCAD, the preference right now is on buyers  over 1.35 and 1.3480, with strategies in place to support this area The opening tomorrow will determine whether a selling scenario becomes viable, with selling intervals ranging from 1.3490 to 1.3480, once below the 1.35 mark. Stay informed to make the best decisions when it comes to these currency pairs. Updates are made tomorrow on TradingView USDCAD currently shows a preference for buying around the 1.35 and 1.3480 levels. Strategically, it seems wise to invest in buying at this point. However, we should keep our eyes peeled and assess tomorrow's opening to see if a selling scenario may be more viable. If the pair dips below the 1.35 levels, the selling intervals might go as low as 1.3490 and 1.3480. XAUUSD, the market appears to be holding its buying position consistently above the price of 2000.0 an ounce. As traders, we prefer to look for opportunities to sell at levels below 1.990 and 1.980. Nevertheless, there is still a chance the market may sustain its buying pressure above 2.005 and 2.007. Keep an eye on Wednesday to see if the data on American inflation are favourable. That might be a turning point for dollar buyers and those who sell commodities. Updates are made tomorrow on TradingView
by watchmyTrading
EURUSD eases on the way to refresh 2023 highEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a seven-week-old ascending resistance line as it pares the weekly gains, the third consecutive one. While the overbought RSI joined the stated resistance line to recall sellers, bullish MACD signals and a two-week-old ascending trend line, around 1.0820, challenge the Euro bears. Following that, the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, respectively around 1.0785 and 1.0700 could lure the pair sellers. On the contrary, the aforementioned resistance line near 1.0980 acts as an immediate upside hurdle before directing EURUSD buyers toward the current Year-To-Date high, near 1.1035. In a case where the Euro bulls keep the reins past 1.1035, the January 2022 bottom surrounding 1.1120 will be in focus. During the quote’s advances past 1.1120, tops marked during the late March of the last year can probe the buyers near 1.1185 and 1.1235. Overall, EURUSD is well-set for a fresh yearly top even if the bulls are hesitant of late.
by MTradingGlobal
Range Breakout Failure on the Daily! EURUSD Short.Hello Traders! 1. We see a range made by the EURUSD market on the daily timeframe. 2. There was a clear breakout with the closing of the breakout bar way above the range. 3. A bearish inside bar was formed right after it. 4. Market has also tested 88.6 per cent fib. 5. Once the low of the mother bar (breakout bar) is broken, we can see movement downwards till the market orange zone. 6. Remember, this is on the daily timeframe, so delivering the target may take some time. Do use proper risk management. Happy Trading! Profits, Market's Mechanic.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn27677748
SMC 2 trades 7.5 RR and 3.75 RR1 trade buy : I was looking for an order block on the 1 hour timeframe, I found a buy position, I waited for choch or bos to do it, then I entered the trade, it happened as expected, then I waited for an order block in the demand itself on the 1 minute timeframe as seen in the picture. 2 trade sell: In basically the same principle, I found an order block on a 1-hour timeframe, I waited for bos or choch to do it, when the price returned to the demand, I looked for an order block on a 1-minute timeframe and entered the trade.
Education
by ElonMusk555
1
EURUSD Head & Shoulder Continuation Up Neckline BUY@ 1.0870EUR/USD hits fresh highs above 1.0900 after US ISM Manufacturing PMI The EUR/USD rose further following the release of US Economic data and printed a fresh daily high at 1.0916. It then pulled back to 1.0885. The US Dollar is under pressure amid lower yields and risk appetite. The US Dollar Index is falling 0.50% and is about to test last week's lows near 102.00. The US 10-year dropped to 3.41%, the lowest level in a week. The lower gained momentum after the release of the US ISM Manufacturing report. Data showed that economic activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 46.3 from 47.7 in February, below the market consensus of 47.5. Ahead of the ADP and the NFP, the Employment index fell to 46.9 from 49.1. A different report showed Construction Spending declined by 0.1% in February.
by vishalfxfx