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Eurusd-3

EURUSD bears brace for 0.9870 with eyes on FedEURUSD remains pressured around a one-week low as traders prepared for the Fed’s verdict, likely a 0.75% rate hike and Powell’s aggression. That said, the pair’s clear downside break of the 50-SMA directs the quote toward the multi-year low marked earlier in the month around 0.9950. Given the RSI approaches the oversold territory, the pair’s declines past 0.9950 appears less expected. However, the bear’s rejection to step back from 0.9950 could open the doors for the further south-run towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 27 to July 21 moves, around 0.9870. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive below the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.0165. Following that the previous weekly top around 1.0275 could gain the EURUSD buyers’ attention. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and downward sloping resistance line from early June, close to 1.0340, should challenge the bulls. Also acting as the key upside hurdle is the six-week-old horizontal area near 1.0360-65. Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further towards refreshing the yearly bottom. However, it all depends upon the Fed’s actions. Hence, the trader’s discretion is required.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls have a long way ahead to take control as ECB loomsEURUSD fades a week-long recovery mode ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The pullback could also be linked to the pair’s inability to cross the 100-SMA amid RSI retreat from overbought territory, which in turn suggests the further weakness of the quote. However, a weekly support line, now resistance, joins the 100-SMA near 1.0230 to challenge intraday sellers, a break of which could quickly drag the quote towards the previous Wednesday’s peak surrounding 1.0120. In a case where the major currency pair drops below the 1.0120 supports, the odds of its slump towards the parity level can’t be ruled out. However, bullish MACD signals probe the bears targeting the fresh yearly low, currency around 0.9950. Meanwhile, a sustained trading beyond the 1.0230 resistance confluence can direct short-term buyers towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of June 09 to July 14 downside, at 1.0265. Iff the EURUSD prices cross the 1.0265 resistance, a five-week-old horizontal area including the 50% Fibonacci retracement, near 1.0360-65, could challenge the buyers. It’s worth noting that a convergence of the 200-SMA and a downward sloping trend line from June 09, close to 1.0400, appears the last defense of the pair bears, a break of which could give control to the bulls. To sum up, EURUSD sellers seem flexing muscles ahead of the ECB’s widely known 0.25% rate hike and hence the region’s central bank should do more to defend the Euro buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bounces off key support ahead of US inflation dataEURUSD bears take a breather after refreshing the 20-year low the previous day. The corrective pullback, however, takes place at the lower end of the nearly four-month-old bearish channel. The rebound also gains support from oversold RSI and that too is ahead of the key US CPI data. Hence, sellers need caution and look for a clear upside break of the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of March-May moves, near 1.0140, to change the bias. Even so, the 61.8% FE and May’s low, respectively around 1.0275 and 1.0350, could challenge the recovery moves before giving control to the buyers. Overall, the bears might stay hopeful until the quote stays inside the stated channel’s resistance line, close to 1.0500. On the contrary, the lower line of the stated channel, near the 1.000 psychological magnet, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bears. In a case where the major currency pair stays below the 1.0000 mark, the 100% FE level could act as the last defense for the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to drag the quote towards the late 2020 bottom surrounding 0.9860. Overall, EURUSD bears have had a long ruling and the odds are against them of late, at least technically. However, the fundamentals suggest further downside of the pair and hence buyers need discretion.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD ANALYSIS OVER H4 CHART.Technical outlook From a technical perspective, the RSI (14) on the daily chart is already flashing extremely oversold conditions. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or modest rebound before positioning for any further losses. Hence, any further decline below the 1.0000 psychological mark is more likely to find decent support near the lower end of a multi-month-old descending channel, currently around the 0.9980 region. Some follow-through selling would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the EUR/USD pair vulnerable. On the flip side, any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 1.0070 region. This, in turn, should cap the EUR/USD pair near the 1.0100 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively could trigger a near-term short-covering bounce. Spot prices could then climb back to the next relevant hurdle near the 1.0180-1.0185 zone.
Short
by charliedavies770
EURUSD widened doors for bears ahead of FOMC MinutesEURUSD dropped to the lowest levels since late 2020 on breaking the two-month-old horizontal support area near 1.0360-50, before the latest dribbling around 20-year low. The downside also conquered the 61.8% FE of March-May moves while extending the south-run inside a four-month-long bearish channel. With this, the sellers keep reins ahead of the Fed Minutes and the US ISM Services PMI for June, both of which are likely to exert downside pressure on the quote. Hence, the major currency pair is likely to extend the fall toward testing the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level near 1.0140. In a case where the oversold RSI fails to trigger a rebound around 1.0140, the odds of witnessing the 1.0000 psychological magnet back to the chart can’t be ruled out. The 1.0000 figures also coincide with the aforementioned channel’s support line. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to stay beyond 1.0360 support-turned-resistance to gain the market’s confidence. Even so, the 1.0480 and upper line of the stated channel, close to 1.0540, will be crucial hurdles for the EURUSD bulls to cross before taking back control. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0540, late June’s swing high near 1.0615 and the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0785 could gain the market’s attention. To sum up, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar ahead of important data/events. Even if the scheduled catalysts disappoint sellers, the recovery moves are likely to have a bumpy road ahead.
by MTradingGlobal