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Eurusd-3

EURUSD rebound appears overdue ahead of Fed’s showdownEURUSD holds onto the one-week-old sideways grind ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As a 0.50% rate hike is well-known, as well as priced-in, the Fed will have to supersede market expectations to stay ahead of the curve and keep US dollar on the throne. In that case, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March, around 1.0485, holds the key to the south-run targeting the 2017’s yearly bottom surrounding 1.0340. However, the 1.0400 threshold will act as an intermediate halt while portraying the Fed’s superpower action. In a case where the US central banker chose to disappoint markets, by either meeting expectations of a 0.50% rate lift or resisting faster consolidation of policy, the EURUSD pair could witness the much-awaited rebound, as signalled by the oversold RSI line. The following recovery could quickly bounce back beyond the previous support line, around 1.0580, before challenging the 78.6% FE level surrounding 1.0630-35. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0635, the 1.0760 level comprising the 61.8% FE acts as the last defence for the buyers. Overall, EURUSD prices have witnessed notable downside in anticipation of the Fed’s larger-than-life move but an actual outcome will be crucial for the next moves.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD hints at corrective pullback during the big weekDespite a refreshing two-year low, EURUSD prices remain above a five-month-old downward sloping support line. Adding strength to the recovery hope is Emmanuel Macro’s victory in French Presidential Elections and nearly oversold RSI. That being said, the 10-DMA level surrounding 1.0810 challenges the corrective pullback before directing buyers towards the monthly horizontal resistance near 1.0940. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-DMA and a descending trend line from early February, respectively around 1.1000 and 1.1030, will be tough nuts to crack for the pair bulls afterward. Meanwhile, the aforementioned support line from late 2021, near 1.0690 by the press time, restricts the immediate downside of EURUSD prices ahead of Tuesday’s Durable Goods Orders. Also important for the week are the Preliminary readings of Q1 2022 GDP figures for the US and Eurozone, up for publishing on Thursday and Friday in that order. Even if the quote drops below 1.0690, the year 2020 lows around 1.0635 and the 1.0600 threshold may entertain bears ahead of highlighting the late 2015 bottom of 1.0515.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD remains vulnerable to further downsideEURUSD licks its wounds around a two-year low during a cautiously optimistic Asian session on Wednesday. In doing so, the major currency pair takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-April moves. However, a downward sloping trend line from March 31 challenges the quote’s corrective pullback near 1.0830 ahead of a broad resistance zone surrounding 1.0930-60 comprising 200-SMA and multiple levels marked in the last one month. Even if the quote manages to cross the 1.0960 hurdle, a 10-week-old descending resistance line near 1.1075 will be crucial for buyers to watch. On the contrary, the 61.8% FE level near 1.0750 restricts the immediate downside of the EURUSD pair ahead of April 2020 lows near 1.0730-25. Should the quote drop below 1.0730, the 1.0700 round figure and March 2020 bottom surrounding 1.0635 will lure the pair bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions aren’t supporting a no-break south-run and hence intermediate pullbacks can’t be ruled out. Overall, the EURUSD rebound remains elusive until crossing the 1.1075 level
Short
by MTradingGlobal
The Fibonacci Game!After the yesterday's 160 pips fall, EURUSD took great support at $1.0776 - $1.07574 levels for a good 78 pips pull back therefrom. Saw some rejection, Retraced 50% and ended up forming a wedge with a $1.07970 low and $1.08236 high. There was quite a resistance at $1.08070 levels, Breakout therefrom made the high of $1.08236. (Which happens to be the 61.8% Retracement level too). When I got to my desk, This whole story was already in play. Price was travelling near the $1.08070 levels and thanks to the buying pressure reflected by the long wick and a hammer candle, which made the entire set up look like a re-test. 1) Getting some decent 1.95 Reward to Risk. 2) DXY seeking resistance at 100.49 levels and preparing for a quick Immediate fall. 3) Buying pressure at 61.8% retracement level. 4) Making higher highs - higher lows on a shorter timeframe. These were the reasons for me to put on this quick trade for 13-14 pips. It's just so amazing to see the way Fibonacci levels play out even on such a shorter timeframe. Fun Fact (Just in case you didn't know) - Fibonacci Sequence was first discovered by an Indian mathematician Acharya Pingala.
by pranay0508mishra
eurusd long and short on MTFMay 04, 2022 The bank expects the Fed to deliver 6 rate hikes in the year, of 25 bps each, with the first hike likely in March, followed by additional hikes in May, June, July, September and December, as per a Reuters report. According to Morgan Stanley, a rate hike of 150 basis points is appropriate this year to keep rising inflation under control. The bank had previously predicted this figure at 125 basis points. According to data released last week, the US CPI inflation jumped at its fastest pace in 40 years, or since 1982. Besides, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers last week made remarks on the Fed to likely hike interest rates at all the seven remaining policy meetings in 2022. Fears of the Fed taking more aggressive rate hikes in the year to curb rising inflation have spooked global markets, with more hold on emerging markets like India. Economists believe that the red-hot US inflation figure for January could lead to interest rate hikes by at least 100 basis points this year. Even a 50 bps hike in March would lead to ​​a sharp correction in global markets, stated the Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
by satyendrasatya48
EURUSD bears eye 1.0800 ahead of US inflationEURUSD fades Friday’s rebound ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Steady RSI and bearish MACD signals also support the bearish bias. That said, the 1.0845-35 region offers immediate support to the currency major ahead of directing it to the latest multi-month low surrounding the 1.0800 threshold. In a case where EURUSD bears remain dominant past 1.0800, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March moves, near 1.0755, will be in focus. On the flip side, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo.) and 21-DMA, respectively around 1.0970 and 1.0990, restrict the short-term recovery of the EURUSD pair. However, bulls remain cautious until the quote stays below the 50-DMA level of 1.1125. Also acting as an upside filter is the previous month’s peak around 1.1185. It’s worth noting that the pair’s successful trading above 1.1185 enables the buyers to retake control. Overall, US inflation data is likely to exert downside pressure on the EURUSD prices.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears take a breather with eyes on 1.0760A one-month-old horizontal area probes EURUSD bears amid oversold RSI conditions, portraying a corrective pullback towards the late March low near 1.0945. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, as well as bearish MACD signals, can challenge sellers afterward. In a case where the SMA confluence fails to stop buyers, 1.1120 and the last monthly peak surrounding 1.1185 will act as validation points before giving reins to the bulls. On the contrary, fresh selling should wait for a clear downside break of the aforementioned horizontal support around 1.0885-80. Following that, the yearly low near 1.0800 will be quick to return to the charts. Though, the 61.8% FE of February-March moves near 1.0760 could test the EURUSD bears afterward. If at all the pair refrains from bouncing off the 61.8% FE level, the year 2020 bottom surrounding 1.0635 will be in focus.
Short
by MTradingGlobal