XAUUSD – Sell Setup at Trendline Confluence (2H)Price is approaching a major confluence zone where two descending trendlines intersect.
This area is further strengthened by a small Supply/Demand zone (highlighted rectangle), making it a high-probability sell region.
🔹 Plan:
Watch for rejection / bearish confirmation near the marked box
Primary bias: Sell from resistance
🔹 Expected Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish alternative:
If price breaks and sustains above the confluence, continuation toward the upper resistance zone is possible.
🔴 Bearish main scenario:
Rejection from the box → pullback to minor support → continuation drop toward the green demand zones below, as shown by the arrows.
🔹 Key Notes:
Structure still corrective inside a larger range
Best entries on lower timeframe confirmation (5m / 15m)
Risk management is key around trendline tests
📌📌📌 Not financial advice. Trade with confirmation 📌📌📌
Rejection Signs to Look For (5m / 15m)
Enter only if at least 2–3 of these appear:
✅ Long upper wicks (failed highs)
✅ Bearish engulfing / strong impulsive red candle
✅ Multiple attempts to break high but no close above trendline
✅ Break of LTF higher low (structure shift)
✅ Volume spike on rejection (if you use volume)
📌 Key rule:
Wick is information, close is confirmation.
Expecting
BTCUSD Weekly Close Decides the Next Major Move 83,500 Is strongBTCUSD is at a critical decision zone.
A weekly close above 83,500 can trigger a short-term relief rally towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
However, the 106,300 – 106,800 region remains a major supply and profit-booking zone.
Timeframe Context:
This analysis is based on the daily structure with weekly candle confirmation.
Key Observations:
• 83,500 is acting as a decisive support/resistance flip level
• A weekly close above 83,500 increases the probability of a move towards the 0.618 retracement zone
• The 106,300 – 106,800 area aligns with 0.618 Fibonacci + historical supply, making it a high-risk zone for fresh longs
Trading Insight:
Any upside from current levels should be treated as a relief rally, not a confirmed bullish continuation.
Strong rejection or bearish confirmation near the 0.618 zone can lead to a larger corrective move or crash.
Conclusion:
Trade the move, respect the levels, and wait for confirmation —
levels lead, price reacts.
BTCUSD Monthly Outlook -Potential Pullback - 0.618 B4 Major Move🔴This analysis is based on the Monthly timeframe, with Fibonacci drawn from the recent swing high to the current low.
The price is currently in a corrective phase, and based on its structure and Fibonacci alignment, there is a high probability of a retracement toward the 0.618 level before the next major directional move.
📊 Key Levels & Expectations
0.618 Fibonacci zone: 105,400 – 105,800
This zone aligns with a strong historical resistance/supply area
Price may attempt a corrective pullback into this region (marked with the small red arrow)
This move should be viewed as a retracement, rather than a trend reversal.
⚠️ High-Risk Area – Not a Buy Zone
Even if the price reaches the 0.618 resistance zone, the overall structure remains weak unless there is: a strong bullish monthly close, Clear volume expansion, and acceptance above the resistance. Without these confirmations, the 0.618 zone is expected to act as a sell-on-strength area.
🩸 Downside Scenario
If rejection occurs from 105.4K – 105.8K, a larger downside move (marked by the big red arrow) becomes highly probable.
Key support to watch:
81,100 – 83,500 (critical structure support)
A break and close below this zone can accelerate bearish momentum.
🧠 Trading Perspective
This is a patience-based market:
Short-term upside is possible
But risk remains elevated
A safer approach is waiting for confirmation at key levels
📌 This idea is shared for educational and market-structure discussion only.
🔔 Note
I’ll be actively sharing structured, level-based BTC analysis here going forward.
Follow if you prefer probability-based setups over emotional bias.
NBVENTURES | Strong RSI divergence,falling wedge can give us 25%NBVENTURES | Strong RSI divergence (Lower time frames), oversold in Daily time frame. Bounce and breakout from the falling wedge can give us
25%
CMP : 47.50 (Ideal to enter @ 46.50)
SL : 44
Target : 58 or exit near the trendline as it is getting narrow.
Almost 1:6+ risk reward setup
P.S : Trade with very lite position size as the volume history is not stable in this script.
NLong





