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NIFTY MARCH MONTH EXPIRY ANALYSISThe market (NIFTY50) is Trading at 22150. Do not blindly go with the buy or call side. First Market will re-test with the S4 area (21950) and then it will move towards our Target which is 22300. It's a clear Reverse Head and Shoulder Pattern but don't go blindly in any direction. Let's wait for a retest and then enter the rally. Another 2 Conditions: 1. If it breaks 22215 then 22300 will be scalping in Intraday. 2. If 21800 Break then more selling expected
NSE:NIFTY
by NaveenTTR
1
23 Jan ’24 — Almost 1700pts fall + Support break - Bear Attack?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Banknifty fell an unbelievable 1696pts ~ 3.64% from the HOD to the LOD. As usual, the gap-up of 472pts would have painted the wrong picture today especially when the Traders came ready to play ICICI on the long side. Never in the day, we got a bullish signal today - it was a one way journey from that gap-up to the low of the day. 4mts chart The candle right at the support level of 45399 was the strongest - 215pts fall. This shows the strength the big-boys exerted today to create momentum. Were FIIs pissed off that we made them work on a Saturday? Both Nifty and BankNifty have the same stance (bearish) similar to the one we had on 17th Jan. When Both the indices are in the same direction, it should be a treat to watch. 63mts chart The next support comes at 44542 followed by 44068. The odd thing is that Global markets are so positive except China and Hong-Kong. And we do not have any bad local macro news except for the Sony-Zee saga and Govt. decision to increase the import duty on Gold & Silver. We strongly feel these positions are for the Budget 2024, If you have a better valid point - do mention it in the comments below. Also, we do not have an expiry tomorrow as both BN and N50 will have the monthly expiry on 25th. Strangely in Jan month, BankNifty’s last working day is the 31st on which it has a weekly expiry, but its monthly expiry is on 25th because Nifty’s on 25th. Some things you see only in India.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
19 Jan ’24 — Are you ready for the BANKEX expiry tomorrow?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The stance for BankNifty was bearish yesterday and it is still bearish today. The highs and lows of today were more or less matching with the levels of yesterday. Visually the price action is more negative than yesterday, the reason being the highs hit today were due to gap-up whereas yesterday’s high was via fighting it out during trading hours. 4mts chart From the highs to the lows today, there was a swing range of 688 points. Just that the gap-up hides this in plain sight, after all the index closed flat at -0.03%. The change in holiday schedule is going to impact BankNifty the most as BANKEX expiry which was on Monday will have to be conducted tomorrow. Quite sure the traders were not prepared for this event and the opening minutes could create some chaos. We are not even sure if the technical analysis will work out tomorrow. 63mts chart Look at the encircled region - all RED candles. How many analysts do you know who would say these many consecutive red candles are a bullish sign? None. Despite this, BankNifty could move up tomorrow as the news flow of holiday change was not priced in. BANKEX has a close correlation with BankNifty and logically traders would use the opening minutes to build expiry positions tomorrow. Since FIIs were not informed, they would come tomorrow unprepared. If there is sanity tomorrow and BankNifty starts moving downwards - the first level to watch out for is 45399. To go bullish - it has to climb 1765 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Banks not happy with a "Happy New Year 2024"We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions. BankNifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral BankNifty was not able to break away from the lower channel line. Normally BN swings from the lower boundary to the upper boundary and follows a good correlation with the ascending channel. The last 30mts of fall ensured we broke the lower trend line. Ideally, the stance had to change to bearish - but we ran out of time for a full 63mts candle to form. 4mts chart link - click here The fall was 408pts ~ 0.84% deep. The red candle that took out the channel trend line had a drop of 154pts. Both BankNifty and FinNifty were looking quite weak today - not sure of the reasons though. When NiftyIT turned and went into strong green - the banks also started lending support to Nifty50. And when the fall came, it was all banks. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle closed below the channel, but the body is still touching the trend line. Just because of this reason - we decided to go with a neutral stance instead of bearish. The opening hours tomorrow will give us more clues anyway. FinNifty has expiry tomorrow and the stakes will be quite high for the banks to perform.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 -BankNifty gets a NEW ATH inside the ASC. channelBankNifty Analysis BankNifty is still caught between the upper & lower end of the ascending channel. Even then it managed to scale to a new all-time high of 48347. Half of the traders would have thought BN would have expiry today, the best way to remember would be to use post-it-notes saying BN expires with Nifty on the last week of the month. 4mts chart link - click here BN also had a slight gap-up, but the leg1 of the rally was quite strong. We gained 480pts ~ 1.01% till 12.07 before giving away 356pts ~ 0.74%. Leg2 it rallied 458pts ~ 0.96% but not enough to break out of the channel top line. 63mts chart link - click here Once BN got back into the channel - it is finding it difficult to break down or break away. Somehow the boundaries are getting respected. BN hitting a new top ensured that the stance changed from neutral to bullish. I am seriously thinking if the momentum is intact we should be getting that channel breakout tomorrow. Since it is a monthly expiry a bit of volatility cannot be ruled out as well.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
31st Oct ’23 - BankNifty stuck between support & resistanceBankNifty Analysis Further clues for Nifty50’s movement might be hidden in BankNifty’s price action. Unlike Nifty, BankNifty has crowded support & resistance lines nearby that may impact the trend movement. The only way out is to come up with a big RED or GREEN candle break the support/resistance and ensure the momentum picks up. The open (43264) was around the resistance level of 43253. We had a rejection in the opening candle itself. The first pause was at the support level of 43012 which was hit by 09.30. From 09.30 to 11.35, Banknifty was stuck in this zone. At 11.40, I thought the 2nd leg of the down move may be building up - but it was a false flag. BankNifty managed to crawl back to the resistance of 43012 by 13.05. It spent the next 1hr 45mts in this SR zone. Interestingly the price action from 14.50 to 15.00 (3 candles) was very interesting. I still think the clue for the next big move is hidden in this. Why do you think we had that move otherwise? We are exactly at the same level as of 27th October. For the last 3 days, I have maintained the neutral call and somehow the markets are kind of obliging. If 42576 gets broken tomorrow, I will be highly excited to look for shorting opportunities. Since it is the weekly expiry tomorrow, I hope we can get some deep price movements.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
25th Oct ’23 - When will the 18880 level get broken? Nifty50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is — the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969).” Nifty did not disappoint the Bears today. The start was right at the 19310 level and we managed to stay around that zone till 10.40. Honestly, I was also fearful that my bearish call may not work out today. For the last 1 to 2 years, Nifty has shown unbelievable resilience that will suck the soul out of any bear. Luckily, the fall started to accelerate once we broke from the 19310 laxman rekha i.e after 10.45. We fell to a new swing low of 19074 intraday, levels last seen as of 30th June 2023. The bounce of 104pts was healthy and gave the bears quite a good premium to enter the 2nd level of shorts. On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows. If we get that tomorrow - we are in for a treat, because the entire price action above 19310 right up to 20222 will lose its relevance. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for tomorrow’s expiry and hope to collect some good premiums. A noticeable change we saw today was the spike of India VIX to 12 levels. Although we cooled off and closed at 11.3125, the future holds promise.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
31 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Monthly, Weekly & Daily ExpiryNifty Monthly Analysis In the Aug monthly series, Nifty is down 387pts ~ 1.97%. This month did not produce a reversal signal even though there were 2 attempts on 24th & 30th respectively. As it stands Nifty is following a bearish trend channel quite efficiently. My next support comes at 18880, so if the fall were to accelerate in September, its good to know the next milestone. Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has fallen only 100pts ~ 0.52%. Not something unusual comparing the monthly fall. Interestingly we made an attempt to reverse the trend yesterday - but that got run by a truck today. Nifty Daily Analysis Today’s price action was a continuation of what we had yesterday. If you look at the chart below, it is tough even to make out the separator between yesterday and today. The reason for the fall today may be attributed to the allegations on Adani by Hindenburg along with the OCCRP, a firm funded by George Soros revealing data about a possible insider trading & manipulation. The data available on the public forum is pretty skewed and I personally dont have an opinion on it right now. But of all the rules set by SEBI, the insider trading case is the biggest manipulation that is possible. Once the investigation gets completed and if the claims still stand - it is going to put a real awkward image about India and Indian companies among the FIIs and HNIs. The fall that happened today was nothing in front of what could happen. On a headline level we just fell 0.48% today well within the average true range. But this fall of 93pts took out the hope of bulls to have a reversal. Not only we breached the support of 19310 today, we even took out the swing low of 25th Aug. From tomorrow if we stay as it is, then the horizontal support line of 19310 will no longer be required. All that stays back will be the bearish channel. I wish to change by stance to bearish for tomorrow unless the 19310 resistance is breached.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on FinNifty - flavorless Expiry todayFinNifty Weekly Analysis We have fallen 2.31% ~ 464pts between the last expiry and today. This is definitely a good start for the bears. Unlike Nifty, Finnifty has managed to form a lower low on the 1hr TF. The first major support comes at 19421. FinNifty Today Analysis Due to HDFCBK’s weightage on Finnifty, we closed a 0.1% lower than banknifty today i.e at 0.3% ~ 66pts down.Chartwise today’s recovery was not as dramatic as Nifty50 and provides further room for bears to play. From an expiry perspective, the options premiums were not at all exciting even during the opening minutes. Since we had a good gap down, the expectation was that PE strikes would explode in premiums - but that did not happen. Guess the big-boys came prepared not to drive down the prices further. Retail traders like you and me were in the dark and had to guess the direction. Tomorrow will be a trading holiday as we are celebrating our 77th Independence Day - 15th Aug. This was the reason we had FinNifty expiry on Monday instead of Tuesday this week.
NSE:CNXFINANCEShort
by viswaram
1
Ready for Hero Zero Trade guy's. Market will fall down from hereGuy's market can slip from here like anything, so i am expecting sharp fall in FInance nifty too, as today is expiry day in finance nifty due to tomorrow market off on 15th august independence day. So guy's first of all Happy Independence day in advance. Now let's focus on trades. I have this trade:- So take hero zero trade 19600 pe now at 32 keep stop loss at 11 Targets we can see 56/77/89/125++ Hedge with any out the money call option buy 19650 ce now at 5 Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades. Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's. Thankyou.
NSE:CNXFINANCEShort
by TraderRahulPal
Everyday Of The Week Is An Expiry Day | Impact Of 0 DTE Options After the latest circular from NSE, MidCPSelect Nifty which tracks a handpicked 25 stocks will have expiry date shifted from Wednesdays to Mondays. And BankNifty which tracks the top most banks in India will have expiries on Wednesdays instead of Thursdays. This change in status-quo has created a situation wherein we have a daily expiry. Much similar to the 0 DTE (zero day to expiry) by CBOE in the US. Many economists have published whitepapers on how this could impact the options trading industry, speculations, index movements. But we still have no clarity on how the future will unfold. You might already know how “options” as a financial instrument is a double edged sword due to the leverage it provides. Let me try to voice my version of what will happen! Stock markets have already caught the attention of the wanna be rich guys. Although options trading is a newer concept, stock market & betting has been here for more than 100 years. People generally buy stocks in the anticipation that they could sell it back at a higher cost and thereby profiting. Most often these buys are not because they like the underlying company or have done the research of the firm but just to get rich quick. Options trading is the next level of betting from stock trading. Options instruments CALL & PUTS give the ability of the buyer to handle a higher number of shares of the firm for a fraction of the total cost (for a limited time). That limited time is the catch here. Every option instrument will expire on a predetermined date called expiry day. Whereas the stocks have no expiry dates. What this means is that if you have purchased CALL OPTIONS you expect the stock to move up real quick before the expiry, if it doesn’t you lose the premium paid. Whereas in stocks you have the privilege to hold the shares as long as you like. The reason options were introduced was to hedge the owner of the shares against its short term fluctuations. For eg: If I own 100 shares of XYZ and I wish to hold this for the next 10 years, but a recent report says XYZ company has lost one of its licenses & the shares could tank. What I could do is buy PUT options of the firm so that my downside is protected for the short term. When I decide to buy the PUT options someone has to take the counter position. It could be the market maker or a speculator. The market maker, if he decides to sell that PUT option to me, has a net long exposure, which means he makes money only if the stocks stay as they are or move up. Technically no market maker likes to have a directional exposure, so he will immediately take another few trades to become delta neutral. Or it could be a speculator who is just there to make money. This guy may not have a stock holding against the position he has taken. Most likely this person has the belief that stock XYZ is moving up. Stocks still have a monthly expiry, which gives ample time for the buyer/seller of the option instrument to change or modify their long/short exposure according to the price action/news flow. Whereas Indices are now set with weekly & monthly expiries. Earlier both Nifty50 and BankNifty expired on the same day ~ Thursday. So the speculation was either mostly on that one day or via overnight positions built up towards the expiry. With the new changes 6 separate indices are set to expire on separate days of the week, which means a speculator has the opportunity to gamble into a long or short exposure every single day of the week. We now know the speculator is only interested in making money provided his views/research is accurate. Honestly I still dont believe any retail trader is a match for the institutions with their supercomputers, mathematical modeling or the kind of talent they attract. So if someone has to lose money in this process, it has to be the lowest hanging fruit. Since there are daily expiries, the retail trader is enticed into an opportunity to make easy money. The good thing is that overnight is not there, but this trader has to be knowledgeable enough on what he is getting into. Both the size & count of betting will increase & its going to be a harvest for the Government, Brokers & Professional Traders. After a while it is going to be like any gambling sport or a lottery business. Market makers will be glad to offer a wider bid/ask spread and profit, usually the end trader is not aware of this slippage. Since the volume of trades are going to explode, there is a risk of risk-oversight. Let me try to explain. Case1: Markets prefer to stay range bound — this is the best case for all the participants. Most often the day ends just like the day begins & there are no hefty options adjustments, roll up or roll down. The premiums in the strikes will be normal (usually low) Since the swings are normal, option strikes do not create unwanted build up of open interest (volumes will be as usual) This scenario is safe for all the participants even though there is an equal amount of money to be won or lost. Case2: If the markets start to pick a direction — it is going to have a spiraling effect which cannot be quantified by any mathematical modeling If the markets are moving against a net sell position, the trader will start covering to reduce loss. This will create a spike in open interest of that strike & nearby strikes. Once the volumes begin to spike, more speculators will jump in creating premium mispricing. When the option premium mis-pricing exists, arbitrageurs will enter the game. Market makers will be glad to write options & counter balance it by going long or short in the underlying. This algo or HFT will further escalate the directional move. This 2nd category will create a self perpetuating trap if left unchecked. The high frequency traders are usually computerized and do not stop if they see the directional movement picking up speed. These machines feed on this distress & usually suck the soul out of the retail traders. Well it’s not a fault, but the machines are engineered that way. The indices would fall or rise for no real reason and could wipe out a select portion of traders due to their unlimited loss options exposure. And the next day this index could revert to normal as this fall/rise was just due to speculation & nothing to do with fundamentals. A black monday or a flash crash could be normal and more frequent. And there are 2 instances where this could even translate into deeper wounds. The same component stocks, almost in the same weightage are participating in adjacent expiries. FinNifty on Tuesdays & BankNifty on Wednesdays Nifty50 on Thursdays & Sensex on Fridays. So if we had a big movement on a Tuesday, it could even set the stage for further acceleration on Wednesday as the same underlying component stocks were impacted. Having said all these, I am sure there would be many think tanks who would have thought through all these & implemented some safety nets to protect the vulnerable subset of people. If the case1 scenario plays out it should be a hunting ground even for a commoner like you & me to make some money!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by viswaram
Firefighting a Short Iron Condor Strategy on Nifty50 on Expiry DThis is a strategy you use when you feel the markets will not rise or fall below a predetermined level within the upcoming week. Approx 9 out of 10 times markets remain range bound and the other single time it breaks out or breaks down. This strategy is when you have a feeling that markets will remain range bound and will not break out or break down. We will be using Sensibull to analyze each of the strategies. If you have a zerodha demat account — their strategy builder tool is 100% free. We have created a short iron condor by placing a 4 legged option strategy. We have used the Nifty50 index that has a weekly expiry on 03 Aug 2023. The split up of the legs are · Buy 19350 PE for 13.65 · Sell 19500 PE for 37 · Sell 19800 CE for 39 · Buy 19950 CE for 13 Today is 28th July Friday and we have 4 more days to expiry ie. Monday 31st Jul, Tuesday 1st Aug, Wednesday 2nd Aug and Thursday 3rd Aug. The maximum profit you can get out of this trade is Rs2468 and the max loss is Rs5033. When you hold this trade till expiry, you can be 100% sure that your losses will never exceed Rs5033 — that is the first guarantee you can count on for fixed loss strategies. You will benefit if Nifty50 ends between 19451 and 19849 on 03 Aug 2023. Current price of Nifty50 is 19646. Which means we have 19646–19451 = 195pts protection downside and 19849–19646 = 203pts protection upside. To take this trade the capital required is Rs47194 which can be funded via cash in ledger or pledging Gsecs or GOI bonds. Mutual funds, stocks and ETF could be pledged as well, but brokers require 50% of all funds to come from cash or cash equivalent holdings. Firefighting Strategies on Iron Condor This is where the topic gets interesting. You are already aware by now that the max loss you need to defend is Rs5033 over the next 4 days but most importantly on 03 Aug expiry day. When to Fire fight? Firefighting is really required only if Nifty falls below 19451 or surge pasts 19849. Even if daily swings of this magnitude happens, its quite common for Nifty50 to revert to mean. So our firefighting strategies can be deployed for a short duration of few minutes or intraday. All the firefighting strategies has to deployed on EXPIRY DAY only i.e. every Thursday. I do not suggest or recommend to do it on any other day as the risks of not closing a fire-fighting trade may cause your capital to get wiped out. High Risk Firefighting The firefighting strategies require naked option buying or selling so its best recommended that you do it after studying the risks associated. Most importantly these tactics has to be done within the day and should not be taken overnight which may otherwise wipe out your capital. Most importantly these tactics has to be done within the day and should not be taken overnight which may otherwise wipe out your capital. I have intentionally repeated that sentence with bold so that it gets your undivided attention. How to Firefight? There are only 2 loss making possibilities here 1. Nifty50 is above our upper breakeven of 19849 2. Nifty50 is below our lower breakeven of 19451 Let us assume that Nifty is trading at 19400 now which means it is below our lower breakeven as per (2). From here Nifty50 has only 3 possibilities on 03 Aug Expiry Day a) Stays below 19451 b) Climbs back above 19451 but not cross 19849 c) Goes above 19849 Conditions (a) & © is unfavorable for us, whereas condition (b) is an ideal case for us. If condition (a) i.e. Nifty Stays below 19451 happens we have the freedom to sell CALL options above 20000 all the way till 21500 intraday. Image below shows the option chain of Nifty50 and the strikes highlighted in red are CALL options above 20000. If we select to short sell any of these strikes — there are only 2 possibilities that could happen 1. Nifty will scale back up the lower breakeven of 19459 — then these CALL options will appreciate in value and we will incur a loss if we hang on. The idea is that we got Nifty50 back above our lower breakeven so that it profits us — so it makes sense to exit the firefighting position. 2. Nifty closes below 19459 which means the CALL options we sold becomes worthless (ie goes to 0) and we pocket all the premiums paid Reiterating again that the firefighting has to be done only on expiry day where you have 100% visibility that the OTM CALL options are going to zero. On any day Nifty50 could make even a 0.5% move and drive up the options premium so high that you end up losing more. Similarly if Nifty50 is above 19849 we need to short sell PUTS below 19300 and grab those premiums to offset the max loss of Rs5033. How much premiums you should grab? The idea here is not to use the option selling strategy for income rather to cover your max loss. The max profits you can target should match the max losses you will hit in the original strategy. Also do not be adamant that you need to recover 100% of the losses, even if you are able to reclaim only 50% — it’s still a WIN. When to Exit the Short Selling Position? As soon as Nifty is back in the favorable range, we should prioritize exiting the short selling position as the fire is doused. If you hang on to the short selling position anymore — you may get barbequed/incinerated.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by viswaram
Sensex Expiry Special Analysis|Hero Zero Trade will be By 1:15pmGood Morning Traders, i hope you all will be doing good in trading. Yesterday it was really a good day for option buyers and hero zero trader, as there was huge and one sided momentum in all the indexes. So, today is Sensex Expiry day let's see if we can get same hero zero trade like yesterday. Sensex have given closing at all time high, there is no any price action data for upside on chart, but momentum can be resume for upside. Well i have marked and written most of things on chart, but will write here too. Important levels for Sensex:- Buy above 67602 if levels gets sustained at least for 15 mints. Targets will be 67782/67895 Keep Stop loss at 67302 Sell below 67302 if levels gets sustained at least for 15 mints. Target will be 67076/66892 Keep Stop loss at 67602 Note:- Hero Zero Trade will be in 2nd half somewhere 1:15pm. So, we will update in afternoon according to price action, so stick with us and follow us to get notity at right time. Till then enjoy but don't overtrade and Always wait for the best entry or levels to execute trades. And always follow strict stop loss to save your capital from unexpected market direction. Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades. Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's. Thankyou.
BSE:SENSEX
by TraderRahulPal
2
Nifty 50 - 13 July 2023I have been explaining the levels and logics behind my trades in my videos. Live market, Post market analysis and Next trading session's Detailed Analysis has been posted in my YouTube channel. Please do watch my old videos in Daily Analysis Playlist to understand the Entry and Exit criteria. Do follow and subscribe if you like the analysis . I expect the market to be Bearish Today. Trade or invest according to your analysis. This is just my view . <----- 3MRT Trading ----->
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Harish-P
PostMortem on Nifty50 Today & Analysis of 28 JUN 2023Quarterly Analysis of Nifty50 — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023 N50 also rose 11.06% ~ 1888pts, percentage wise same as BN. The price action of N50 was much more healthy with 2 proper legs & occasional retracement that gave it further thrust. If you analyze the pattern from 01 Dec to 28 Jun it looks like a perfect V shape. 16962 support which provided the crucial turn around will be remembered for the next 2 quarters. -- Daily Analysis Nifty50 N50 came prepared today to take out the ATH. During the report yesterday — we did seriously consider this possibility. The momentum really favored the bulls and once RELIANCE started contributing — gains started flowing like a song! Gap up gave N50 a head start of 0.38%, intraday it swung 1% & finally closing with 0.82% gains. Whats Next? would be an ideal question now. Indian stock markets are at euphoric levels even without strong retail participation. Once the news hit the common people, will the FOMO kick in? Stock markets are no way a reflection of what is happening in the economy. The prices of groceries, vegetables, eggs etc are rising day by day — straining the budget of common people. Will the economy rise to match the stock market or will the market falls to be in sync with the economy — only time will tell !
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram