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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 MAY 2023 FINNIFTYToday's price action on the 3 indices NSE:NIFTY , NSE:BANKNIFTY and NSE:CNXFINANCE were conflicting due to which none of them really went anywhere. NiftyIT had a down day that doused the fire in Nifty50 to break-through the resistance of 18419. Similarly Finnifty was unable to get past 19421. From the start there was huge shorting on banknifty on CE side which may have set the tone for the day. Nifty50 started gap-up and had gone to the resistance level by 10.15, but the shorting on bank & financials limited Nifty's gains. Banknifty also opened gap-up at 43978 and there was a move upwards, something that we can expect with how the day closed yesterday. This momentum faded out at the 44080 levels and from there BN was not going anywhere. There was a fall of 243pts between 14.25 & close. Nothing major to complain, but we all know why the last 1hr move today does not mean anything. Yes, it was finnifty expiry day. The big-boys knew this at the open itself, I got to know the shorting intensity after 1hr of open. A little bit of that was due to the Finnifty expiry - which we will discuss separately today. --- 15mts TF shows range bound move ahead, it did not show the shorting intensity, neither can we make out from the chart pattern so far. The bias has not changed to bearish mode, it will only if the 43253 support is broken. Do the shorts have enough strength to bring BN down to that levels - we will get to know by tomorrow. --- 1hr is still showing a converging chart pattern, just a continuation from yesterday. There is no change in bias as of now. --- Finnifty Expiry special Finnifty was the weaker among the 3 indices - Nifty, BankNifty & Finnifty. That was obvious as the expiry day traders would want the market to expire near previous close as much as possible. This will give them max gains for straddles. When Nifty50 was racing ahead, finnifty stayed quite flat. It was trading around the 19421 Support/Resistance zone but did not have any momentum to push it either way. The last 1 hr session was different from the rest of the day, we had a drop of 0.56% ~ 108pts to ensure Finnifty expires as flat as possible (0.06% gains). Also after 14.30 the premiums of both CE and PE were almost dead which made perfect sense for a small directional move. The option sellers would not have been hurt so much.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Analysis In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th. Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records. The pull back of 380pts from the swing high is mainly because of the negative sentiment of Nifty50.  It could even be a normal profit booking after a breathless run, and as banknifty has not tested the support on 17th or today - the bull run should stay intact. --- Today's Analysis We had a gradually declining day today after the gap up open at 44006. The price action may appear negative due to the falling shape, but we still ended the day in green. There was a 272pt abrupt fall between 13.40 to 13.50 i.e. in the 10mts window - this looked like a warning shot. esp because the volumes also surged. Later on I read the news that SBIN results were declared. An there was a swing of 2.61% ~ 15.5 pts in this period. Luckily 43800 PE spiked helping many traders book a zero-to-hero kind of profit. This surge came totally unexpected. It surged 591% from 14.55 to 101.9. It also goes to prove that option sellers should not take things lightly - surges like this could really wipe out the hard earned money. --- 15mts TF is not looking fully bullish, although today's gap up would have given lot of hope for the bulls - it did not really sustain. Also a falling price action may also indicate the tiredness. Is the ATH breaking out getting delayed and markets in a phase of indecisiveness? --- 1hr TF is not really showing signs of slowing down either. Visually examining the moving average will also give you a fair idea - the slope is good and its increasing in value. The shorter term EMA once it starts dipping will give us a fair warning to reconsider our bullish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 17 MAY 2023Once again banknifty has outperformed Nifty50, the intraday recovery from 14.30 to close facilitated by the bulls of the banks. The price action formed today is interesting, but it is not compelling for a sentiment change to bearish as the support of 43253 is still untouched. If you look at the chart pattern today, it was a decent continuation of the trend from yesterday. We can conclude with a 60% confidence that the rounded top like formation made yesterday could be here to stay. The W like pattern formed in 5mts is not really important, but you should keep it in mind. The bulls are quite strong to give away their lead, thats quite the reason we had a 268pts pullback after a 547pts fall earlier in the day. --- 15mts TF shows the perfect rounded top that got formed. Keep in mind these are temporary levels just for intraday, banknifty is at ATH levels and there is no marked resistance - which means that a small trigger can breakout BN to new highs. --- 1hr is still bullish, we will be eagerly waiting for the 1st support break. I was expecting it to be taken out today esp when Nifty50 was looking quite dangerous. But banknifty proved more stronger than thought - not only did it recover, it helped N50 also to reduce the losses. --- Just look at the Nifty50 1 hr chart, continuous red candles till 13.15. Total drop of 1.81% from the swing high. It makes an interesting case here, if the further trades are held below the current levels we will have a bullish trend negation pattern, even while banknifty is continuing in bullish sentiment.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 MAY 2023 finniftyThe real move came a little late today, from 12.45 to close wherein NSE:BANKNIFTY gave up 403pts ~ 0.93%. I was expecting the fall to come in the morning session - but the finnifty expiry trades would have limited this damage to a great extent. For some reason Axis Bank and IndusInd bank was quite strong today counter balancing the fall in SBI. Remember the Fibonacci discussion we had yesterday - seems like its playing its part, but not until all the strike premiums got eroded on NSE:CNXFINANCE .  The late movements on the index has become a mainstay these days - it is a safe strategy for the big boys not to burn their pockets. So today banknifty has taken out 1 support level at 43253, at 15.10 (5mts TF). All that while the markets were slowly grinding up, I was also quite surprised by the strength showed by the bulls today - with a negative sentiment prevailing they were not giving up. It took 4 red candles from 13.45 to 14.00 just to shake them. --- 15mts TF has not turned bearish yet, we would need a close below 42576 for that. At any point in the next 3 sessions if NSE:BANKNIFTY is able to take out 43700 levels then the chart will look bullish. So if the bears has to do something - now is the time. --- 1hr TF is shown with the FIB levels, today's reversal came at 78.6% retracement level and not at 61.8% (so my first assumption was wrong). Also the strength of the bulls were too strong that my bearish opinions were weakly held. --- Finnifty had a similar pattern to banknifty, but the support provided by HDFC in the early part of the day was quite evident. The FIB levels are exactly same for both the indices - today's reversal came exactly at the resistance zone of 19421. From an expiry stand point, the margin requirements on finnifty options are comparatively lower giving a higher returns for the same risk vs banknifty. Will NSE:CNXFINANCE gain more popularity than banknifty due to this??
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 MAY 2023 - FOMCJust look at the 5mts chart of NSE:BANKNIFTY today - what do you see? I see the strength of the bulls. Even though the opening was gap-down and below the support line 43253, banknifty managed to scale back by 10.45. The first attempt was rejected - rightly so because NSE:NIFTY was looking weak and the market participants would have anticipated more selling pressure. Surprisingly banknifty did not have any selling momentum, by 14.30 the 43253 resistance was conclusively breached. Yeah, we did not close in green but just 39pts lower than yesterday's close. Having such a dichotomy with Nifty50 is not good for NSE:BANKNIFTY . We cannot have a situation where banknifty is crossing the all time highs whereas Nifty50 is 8 to 10% lower. One factor was the under performance by NiftyIT which is mirroring the US tech index. If we continue this outperformance by the banks vs IT - then the weightage of financial stocks will increase further diverging these 2 indices. --- On a generic note, I am quite surprised how the bank stocks in India are staying afloat when the US banks are under severe pressure. SP:SPF is down 22% from the ATH whereas Banknifty is nearing the ATH in India. --- Nifty50 did not have any negative price action today, it just stayed down after opening gap-down. We can interpret it as Nifty50 lacking buying strength. Today's FOMC meeting and FED interest rate decision is definitely going to move the markets globally. If FED raises rates - the banks in US will be under severe pressure. If FED maintains status quo - people will doubt its credibility in fighting inflation. However this was not visible on Nifty50 today, I seriously thought we will close in deep red today mirroring the SP:SPX from yesterday. --- 15mts TF, remember the rounded top formation we were talking about yesterday. Forget that, today's price action is not showing an interim top formation - the momentum is still too strong on the bull side. --- 1hr TF shows the price action much more clearly, instead of a top formation what got formed is a start of a new leg. A higher-low is visible and if we continue to take out 43500 in the next 2 sessions we will have its higher-high too. Technicals will work only if the fundamentals remain the same. It is quite unlikely that the fundamentals will remain the same for tomorrow as the FOMC meeting will have multi polar repercussions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 MAY 2023Signs of tiredness visible in the price action today. To start with, never expected that our indices will close in green today, even though the momentum is slowing, it is pushing up the bulls inch by inch. Nifty50 was having more positive price action vs banknifty today - that may be because there are 2 more resistance zones to go for Nifty50 to reclaim the ATH whereas I do not have another resistance level for banknifty. Also the NiftyIT was providing some additional support today. If NSE:NIFTY has to go up further, the additional points has to come outside of the financial sector. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap-up, but the price action formed is continuous as the first candle retested last closing level. From there we had a narrow band sideways market. For 5h 50mts today we had a narrow traded range of 43362 to 43476. The upside was capped as the buying momentum was missing. The downside was protected as the bulls were quite strong. So literally we did not have any place to go today. Only in the last 1 hr we had some pattern forming indicating a profit-booking or an interim top like formation. Just a minor 180pts fall from HOD. Why I say there could a bit more selling to come is mainly because the volume of credit spreads that were getting created on the call side. --- Nifty50 also had a flattish pattern and unlike the banknifty the last 1 hr selling was not visible. It was a perfect day to get into a straddle today as the opening and closing prices are near same. Nifty50 traded in the range 18136 to 18175 today with no pressure to pick a direction. --- 15mts on banknifty is still bullish pattern. And its looks like a rounded top is getting formed. We would need further trades to happen below 43253 to have a change in bias. --- 1hr is still bullish and we would need a close below 42576 to have a change in bias. I do not have a resistance zone above the current levels. However it is quite unlikely that just banknifty moves up without Nifty50 crossing the 2 more resistance lines. --- NSE:CNXFINANCE expiry special. The open was gapup same like bank nifty and the traded range was again pretty narrow. However the selling pressure in 3 candles via 14.45, 15.00 and 15.15 was quite strong. These 3 came at a time when the options premiums were all near zero, so assuming these were un-windings of the positional trades taken for expiry. I am starting to spend more time on finnifty for Tuesdays as its much easier to trade than just banknifty. Atleast the certainty that the options will go to zero is still there. This is more relevant now as the banknifty options premiums are at their lowest levels. Unless the volatility rises the premiums of banknifty will remain subdued.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 APR 2023I am sure most of the traders would be surprised with the kind of bullish price action we saw after 10am. Since SP:SPX closed -1.58%, NDQ -1.89% yesterday - most of them including me expected NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY to close in deep red today.  The gap down opening at 42559 was perfectly at the support level and from there we wont only 163pts down to reverse the direction & sentiment. We had a rally of 1.01% ~ 426pts from the LOD. The price action at the SR level is worth mentioning as we spent 55mts there before breaking out. There is no surprise with banknifty closing in green as bullish is the prevailing trend on the 1hr chart - but to have outperformed the US markets is real something.  Although I do not know what is the reason - it is worth researching on as the US market dips were due to the banking sentiment yesterday - First republic bank, UBS. This literally had no impact on our banks is something thats worth mentioning. --- Nifty50 had a similar chart with banknifty but it looks more positive. It has caught up to the recent swing high of 13th April indicating the weakness in IT may have got overshadowed by other performers. --- 15mts chart is now looking bullish again after yesterday's subdued performance. The next resistance is seen at 43012. The support of 42576 which held its ground today will give the bulls a lot of hope today. --- 1hr is also looking strongly bullish. The independent islands formed by the gap-ups shows the strong momentum too. Although hard to believe - banks in India are proving to be very strong & resilient to global bad news. My question is are the foreign institutional investors also thinking so?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty & Analysis of 25 APR 2023 + Finnifty EXPFor traders who are playing NSE:BANKNIFTY expiries on Thursdays can play the same trades on FinNifty on Tuesdays. The margin requirements are lower and now since the option premiums are staying low - the ROI in finnifty is better than banknifty. Today was a flat day, open was at 42731 and then it was struggling to keep the momentum up. We had a gradual rise upto 42865 by 11.20 and then we started falling.  The fall itself was not convincing, only a 196pts dip & then it got bought into. This time we did not take the swing high but maxed out at 42827 @ 14.40. The second fall was showing a bit more strength but we ran out of time, we had a dip of 220pts from 14.40 to 15.20 Even after all this banknifty still closed in green, up 42pts. The expiry on Fininfty would have played its part which we will discuss shortly. --- 15 mts TF also showing a bit of tiredness after a good session yesterday. Will banknifty protect the 42576 support is what we need to look at. In spite of all the bullishness yesterday I seriously thought we might have a retest of 42576 today. --- 1hr TF has made a rounded top as of now. Its not confirmation of a top as-it-is. We would need further price action to confirm that. The signs of momentum tiredness was visible in last 4 candles of today. --- Coming to the NSE:CNXFINANCE expiry, 18971 SR zone was active today. There were 3 tests on the 15mts TF today. I was ready with the 18900 PUT option but the support break came in very late ~ 15.15 today. At 12.30 the same put option was active and might have continued to be in the money if not for the quick rejection candle at 12.45 wherein it recovered 0.24%. This SR zone was impacting the movements on the banknifty as well. For the expiry traders it was a perfect day as the closing was flat and they would have got the max bang for the straddles.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
NIFTY important support resistance areasNSE:NIFTY important resistance support areas in nifty for expiry, nifty hasnt been giving much movemnt in last 2 sessions, dont hold options for long as decay might become fast if nifty remains slow and short ranged today as well. trade light quantity and stay strong with proper risk management, if possible avoid trading current expiry options for 1st session, prefer next expiry options as decay wont be an issue if nifty stays slow and short movement is given.
NSE:NIFTY
by ajinkyadiwakar717
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY had a narrow range based trade today with a minor negative bias. Yesterday's swing low was breached by 13.40, but it does not pose a major scare yet! The pattern may look bearish on the 5mts TF, but it actually isnt. Banknifty is comparatively outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT index for the last 3 days. NSE:BANKNIFTY did not have enough momentum to take out the swing high or breach the 42576 levels. This along with the weak sentiment in Nifty50 would have prompted the bulls to take a small break today. There was no violent price moves or support/resistance breaks - this again ensured that the option prices remain low on the penultimate day of weekly expiry. --- The unusual low options premium in bank nifty options are nudging traders like me to switch back to Nifty50 options. I am hoping that this decoupling of banknifty with nifty50 may not last long and the volatility will normalize in the days ahead. --- The 15mts chart has not turned bearish yet. What we see could just be a consolidation. If banknifty is planning to reverse direction at this level - the the first support of 41624 has to be taken out in the next 2 days. Only if the support is taken out quickly, the momentum will favor the dip. --- 1hr chart is still looking strong, the 2 prominent gap-ups standing out boldly. It might be interesting to watch out how the global markets react to the EURO, UK CPI data today. If there are more rate hikes in pipeline - then we may have a weak global sentiment again!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 APR 2023One thing I noticed this week is the variance in volatility of Nifty50 vs BankNifty. On 99 out of 100 trading days - Banknifty used to have a higher volatility than Nifty & you know what higher volatility brings to the options trading. Yes - option premium anomaly. Probably this variance was there earlier too, since I trade on BankNifty all the time - I rarely check the Nifty50 and FinNifty option premiums. But from the begining of April series - the option premiums were unusually low. I suspected it could be due to the high number of holidays this month. The reality was something different, NSE:BANKNIFTY was trading in a stable manner and the choppiness was visible in Nifty - this uncertainty made Nifty50 more susceptible to unusual option premiums. Banknifty stayed in a range today, the price moves from open to 13.05 was perfectly inline with the trend that was set from the last 3 sessions. Let me zoom out and highlight it. See the blue line, its almost a perfect straight line, the price action after 13.10 caused a blip. A fall of 387pts from the HOD to the LOD.  And why I said bank nifty was showing more signs of stability, this fall got arrested and the final closing was flat with a greenish tint. Whereas NSE:NIFTY showed weakness today also, not because of the IT sector (In fact IT was up 0.59%).  --- 15mts shows no major weakness so far. The chart is still bullish. As long as 41624 is still intact - the chart will not reverse direction. --- 1hr also is looking decently good, Just the 13.15 candle stands out from the trade today. If NSE:NIFTY shows further weakness ahead - I am not quite sure how long NSE:BANKNIFTY can stay in green. --- Just like we started discussing Finnifty Expiry from the last week - lets do it every Tuesdays henceforth. I took the expiry trades today & once the HDFC- NSE:HDFCBANK merger completes - it will be really exciting to trade NSE:CNXFINANCE because the top 4 weightage providing stocks will be the same. So we can take part in 2 expiry days in the same week. This is a blessing for anyone who is actively following the financial sector & banks in India. NSE:CNXFINANCE stayed in the range from the open to 13.25 today. The breakdown from the range came at 13.30, but anyone who looked at the red candles would have taken the trade in the short side. This fall also did not last that long, the LOD was at 13.45 and we closed more or less near the lows. The anomaly came in when the banks were doing good, but the HDFC & BAJFINANCE, BAJFINSV were pulling the index down. Thats why we had a flat day for NSE:BANKNIFTY vs red day for Finnifty. FinNifty support is at 18722 which is where it took support today. Yesterday also the first hourly candle took support at this same level. If this breaks the next support comes at 18458.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 APR 2023 ExpiryWe will start with the weekly analysis first, that is what happened in the series 7th to 13th April. The revised format is to provide an executive summary per week. This will benefit you for further research. Since 7th April was holiday, I have taken the closing price of 6th April as starting point. We had a 2.8% ~ 1148pts rally in this week. Let me zoom out and provide a perspective of what this means. If you notice we had a breakout from the 41311 levels which was the swing high of 6th April. Also notice how we broke the channel upper band. The beauty of break-outs are that the final leap will be intense - notice how we moved 367pts just in the closing hour today. The real momentum picked up once we crossed the 41624 level which was the swing high from 6th March 2023. Note the M like pattern formed then. And what followed from the was a fall to the 38690 level. From there bank nifty came back strongly & finally took out this resistance today. One particular strike ie 42000 CE stands out today, let me pull its chart here We had a rally of 3335% ie up 129pts from Rs4 today. The real power of options explained in just 1 strike! --- Coming back to the daily analysis now. Bank nifty opened at 41680 and fell for the first 5mts. From there it maintained a flattish pattern till 12.35 near the 41624 support/resistance zone. It was quite clear that if we break out from this level we will have huge momentum. However I was still looking at the bearish side. My analysis made me think bearish & plan that way. Once we started breaking out at 12.45 - there was no stopping. The momentum favored the breakout. Even though I was inclined to take a bullish position, I did not. I simply did not have enough confidence and this is where the market wronged me. As I stated earlier, 42000 CE was in my radar at 4.30 level - the magic by which it closed at 132 level still shocks me - an opportunity lost. For the option sellers who would have sold the 42500 CE and upwards never felt threatened as those strikes did not surge like the 42000 one. --- Now the 1hr chart is also screaming bullish, at least it is out of bear's hold for now. 41600 & 41800 both are safely breached. As most stock markets are skewed in favor of the bulls i.e everyone wants the stock market to go up. So when we see out-performance more people will join in and add funds - the classic FOMO effect. Since tomorrow is a holiday, we would need to wait for Monday to see further action. If we do not get any negative news from the global markets - bank nifty will be rocket-powered next week too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY held out to a perfect trend continuation from yesterday.  If we notice closely the pull backs were not strong enough to break the momentum. I sincerely thought we will have a reversal or a bearish day today and had taken PE debit spreads to capitalize.  If we analyze today's pattern closely NSE:BANKNIFTY took some time to take out the 41455 resistance. It was hanging around this SR zone for quite some time. Only at 13.20 did we break away from the area. And once we broke that, banknifty started another leg of rally to the next resistance of 41624. Also notice the pullback from 13.40 to 14.55 gave it good confidence as the support of 41455 held. Now why was I bearish - mostly I went with the contrarian decision to go short before the US CPI data. If you track the US markets you can see SPX is well above the bearish channel. This might give the US agencies to release a hotter CPI data as the markets will be ready to absorb it. So I applied the same logic here, if we were to crash - then the 40800 to 40700 levels looks quite possible.  95% of traders would have made money, excluding people like me as the current situation is of a break-out. And you should always stick to the main trend to keep your pockets full of cash ! What I did today is to go against the trend, try to me a little adventurous. --- 15mts trend is again favoring the bulls. I am so very sure 95% of traders will be looking out for bullish opportunity in bank nifty as the chart cries bullishness. --- On the 1hr chart, a resistance breach of 41624 is going to give bulls immense momentum. Last time we were at that level we had a double top M pattern formed i.e. on 6th and 9th March 2023. And then you know what happened - we fell all the way to the 38690 support level. So tomorrow is going to be a very serious day to have either a decisive breakout from these levels or fall back to range. The jump on 31st March has made all the difference to this chart and has given the bulls a new hope.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
BANKNIFTY 29th March MONTHLY OPTIONS IDEA The Bank Nifty index has been on a roller-coaster ride in the past few weeks, with sudden dips and recoveries. With the expiry of March monthly options coming up tomorrow, traders are eager to find profitable trade ideas. The Bank Nifty is the index that represents the performance of the banking sector in India, comprising of the 12 most liquid and large capitalized banking stocks. The Bank Nifty monthly options are widely traded and provide ample opportunities for traders to make profits. In this idea, we will explore some Bank Nifty 29th March monthly options ideas that traders can consider while trading tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Trader_Hu_Mai
4
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 NOV 2022Glad yesterday’s short call worked on bank nifty — read here. The price action formed today is an extension of what was happening yesterday. Apart from the big opening red candle — the rest of the movement is in continuation. Price action of bank nifty index in 5mts chart Speaking of the first candle — it was a story by itself. Gap up opening at 41472 also intraday high & closing the candle at 41107 (low of 41244). 230 pts move in 5mts. I have been pointing out the disparity in #SGXNifty & our indices price action. Lets take yesterday’s case. SGXNifty at 18314 vs 18175 spot. When such anomaly occurs — its the foreigners who always mint money. The only way these 2 indices can converge is with a gap up opening at 9.15 and sharp down move in the opening 15mts. And the average trader here loses out his capital to the arbitrage which he cannot position. Coming back the bank nifty trade today, the opening 5mts would have given the signal that the trend is going to be downwards. But the move till 10.05 would have proved otherwise — BN had to rally all the way back to the first candle to create momentum to the downside. 41450 has proved again to be a reversal zone (i am inclined to add this level to my SR). The move from 10.10 to close gave a clear trend and it took out the support decisively at 12.05. Final 40mts were kind of steady with good volumes showing the level of positioning for tomorrow’s trade. Tomorrow is going to be crucial for 2 different reasons FOMC meeting by US FED at 11.30 IST today & their interest rate decision Special MPC meeting by RBI governor at 10.00 IST tomorrow as the inflation was above threshold (mostly for interest rate revision) If the interest rates increase its good for the banks & they could rally, but its sentiment negative for all the borrowers. S&P500 and Nifty50 could react differently too as the US market has lower weightage on financials compared to India. For us if the interest rate goes up very sharply — on first look it may appear good for the banks. What you dont see is the difficulty it creates to the borrowers as their EMI goes up (1st order derivative impact). The SME who is unable to pay the EMI will have to shut down or downsize his firm creating labor pressure (2nd order derivative impact). The person getting laid off will be unable to consume products & will depend on Govt. for rations (3rd order derivative impact). So i personally expect the RBI to keep interest rate changes very minimal but control the velocity of money — M2. 6 Major banks — opening 5mts move most prominent for ICICI, Kotak and Axis. HDFC stayed flattish — can be seen as sentiment positive comparing the other banks ICICI & Kotak also made flattish chart pattern with negative closing SBI fell quite deep but recovered in last 90mts AXIS kept continuing the negative bias from yesterday’s trade IndusInd fell sharply and did not recover into closing HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, AXIS Bank, Kotak Bank & Indus Ind Bank respectively presented in the 5mts time frame The best trade you could have done today was the Put ratio spread (1:2) combination. ie sell 1 lot of 40500 PE and buy 2 lots of 40400 PE by 11.15 (aggressive traders) or 12.05 (moderate risk traders) as the support level was breached. 40500 was trading at 33.3 & 40400 at 25.10 at 11.18. During close each traded at 49.75 & 37 respectively. (33.3–49.75) + (37–25.1)*2 = -16.45+23.8 = 7.35 pts per trade. S&P500 & Bank nifty continues to diverge. Today’s FOMC meeting by US Fed will sharply impact the SPX and Dow Jones. Nasdaq i cannot comment as there are no financials in it. Comparison of BankNifty vs SPX (S&P500 US index) 15mts not showing clear direction 1hr also not showing clear direction Bank nifty support & resistance levels s1: 40867, s2: 40691 r1: 41312, r2: 41455 PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram