Trent Faces Deeper Correction RiskTopic Statement:
Trent has witnessed a major correction along with the broad market decline but still remains overbought indicating further downside risk.
Key points:
- Stock retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level and found support near ₹5000.
- Price is moving within a well-defined down-trending channel.
- Despite the correction, price is still significantly above the 180-day EMA, suggesting selling pressure may continue until valuation cools off.
Fibonacci
IRCTCStock Overview: Indian Rail Tour Corp Ltd (IRCTC), traded on the NSE, current price: ₹738.00. IRCTC is a public sector company providing ticketing, catering, and tourism services for the Indian Railways.
Key Levels:
Support: ₹372.00, ₹565.95
Upside Swing Zone: ₹727.55, ₹832.95
Possible Upside Levels: ₹1,270.45, ₹1,464.35, ₹1,711.35, ₹2,424.70
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 46.08, indicating neutral momentum as it is neither in overbought nor oversold territory.
Volume: A significant spike was observed during the initial uptrend, followed by stabilization at lower levels, suggesting reduced trading activity.
MA (Moving Average): The stock is trading near its 200-period SMA, which could act as a potential support level.
Sector and Market Context: IRCTC operates in the travel and tourism sector, which has been recovering post-pandemic. The stock's performance is closely tied to the sector's recovery pace and broader market trends, which currently show mixed performance across sectors.
Risk Considerations: Potential risks include changes in government policies, economic downturns, and disruptions in travel due to unforeseen events like pandemics. Market volatility and sector-specific challenges could also impact the stock's movement.
Analysis Summary: IRCTC presents a mixed technical picture with identified key levels and neutral momentum. While the RSI and moving averages provide insights into trend direction, sector performance and potential risks should be carefully considered before making investment decisions.
NIFTY 50 - ICT & SMC Analysis (April 3, 2025)1. Market Structure & Trend Overview
1D Chart (Higher Timeframe Bias)
Bearish Market Structure: The market has been in a downtrend, breaking market structure (MSS) at key levels. The recent rally from March was a retracement into a premium zone.
Key Resistance Areas:
Order Block (OB) at ~23,600: Market is rejecting this supply zone.
Previous Daily High (PDH) & Premium Liquidity Zone: Price recently swept liquidity above PDH and is rejecting.
Key Support Areas:
Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 22,800-22,900: This is the next area where price may drop to seek liquidity.
PDL (Previous Daily Low): A liquidity pool where price may react.
📌 Prediction:
If price stays below 23,600, the market may seek liquidity at 23,000 or even 22,800.
If price reclaims 23,600, a move towards 24,000 is possible.
4H Chart (Mid-Timeframe Confirmation)
Bearish Market Structure: Price is forming lower highs and recently had a Change of Character (ChoCH) to the downside.
Key Levels to Watch:
23,600 OB & FVG: Market is rejecting this area.
23,200-23,250 (Liquidity Area): Price is building liquidity below.
22,900 (FVG & Key Support): If price breaks down, this will be a magnet.
Strong Resistance at 23,600: If price gets here, it could be a sell opportunity.
📌 Prediction:
A potential short trade if price retraces back to 23,500-23,600 (OB) with targets at 23,200 & 22,900.
If 23,200 holds, a bounce to 23,500 is possible.
1H Chart (Execution Level)
Price Action Observations:
Liquidity Sweep at PDH: Market took out buy-side liquidity and is now retracing.
FVG Below 23,200: This is a draw on liquidity.
PWL (Previous Week’s Low) at 23,150-23,200: This could act as support before further downside.
📌 Trade Idea (Bearish Setup)
Entry: Sell near 23,500-23,600 (OB & FVG Zone).
Stop Loss: Above 23,650 (Above liquidity zone).
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 23,200 (First liquidity pool).
TP2: 22,900 (FVG fill & support area).
🔹 Alternative Bullish Scenario: If price does not break 23,200 and forms bullish structure, a long towards 23,600 can be considered.
Nifty Bank Index (BANKNIFTY) Analysis & Trade Setup Timeframes & Context
We have three different timeframes: Daily (1D), 4-Hour (4H), and 1-Hour (1H).
1D gives us the macro view, showing key liquidity zones, order blocks (OBs), and break of structure (BOS).
4H refines our zones, helping to confirm areas of interest.
1H is the execution timeframe, where we define entry, stop-loss, and profit targets.
1️⃣ Higher Timeframe Bias - Daily Chart
📌 Key Observations:
A strong rejection from a higher timeframe supply zone near 52,000 - 52,400.
A liquidity grab (buy-side liquidity sweep) followed by a market structure shift (MSS) confirms bearish intent.
Break of Structure (BOS) indicates a downward trend continuation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) suggest imbalance that the price may revisit before continuation.
📌 Bias: Bearish, expecting price to move lower.
📌 Key Levels:
Supply Zone (Resistance): 51,800 - 52,400
Demand Zone (Support): 48,000 - 49,000
Potential Target: 49,000 (near previous liquidity and OB)
2️⃣ Mid-Timeframe Confirmation - 4H Chart
📌 Key Observations:
A strong volume imbalance (VI) after the downward move.
Price has consolidated inside a 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG), signaling a possible retracement.
The previous low at 50,750 is being tested multiple times, suggesting liquidity is building.
📌 Bias: Bearish
Looking for a retracement to 51,200 - 51,400 (FVG area) before continuing downward.
Break below 50,750 confirms further selling.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 51,200 - 51,400 (FVG + OB)
Support: 50,400 (short-term), 49,500 (major)
3️⃣ Entry Plan - 1H Execution Chart
📌 Trade Idea:
Wait for price to retest 51,200 - 51,400 (FVG zone).
If we see rejection (e.g., bearish engulfing candle or liquidity sweep), enter a short trade.
📌 Trade Parameters:
Entry: 51,200 - 51,400
Stop Loss: 51,600 (above OB)
Target 1 (T1): 50,400
Target 2 (T2): 49,500
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): ~1:3 or better
📌 Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks above 51,600, we invalidate the short setup.
In that case, we will reassess for a bullish continuation.
Shocked by Nifty50's sharp correction? Don't worry!Today NIFTY has crashed by 350+ points and reached 23165, a correction from 23800 levels .
Let me explain, This Nifty Daily chart is a classic example of how many fundamentals of Technical Analysis are satisfied.
1) Old resistances in 2024 at 22800 will now become Support levels
2) If it goes to 23000 and stops at 22800 levels it also fulfils the Wave 4 criteria, which says that Wave 4 never gets in Wave 1 territory
3) If this happens, the chart also completes an Inverse Head and Shoulder's Right Shoulder bottom to make an up-move towards the Neck.
4) if it crosses the Neck, the targets of Nifty will be above 25500, which will be 2500+points.
Technicals are beautiful only when you practice them.
Waiting for bullish moveHere is the detailed analysis for a bullish trade setup on USD/JPY (4H timeframe):
Key Observations:
1. Resistance Zone (151.000-152.000)
- The price has rejected this level three times (as marked in red).
- This suggests strong resistance, and a breakout would indicate a strong bullish move.
2. Ascending Trendline Support
- The price has bounced off the trendline five times (marked in blue).
- However, a breakdown of this trendline could signal bearish movement.
3. Fibonacci Retracement (0.5 - 0.618 Level)
- The retracement zone aligns with a previous resistance level, now acting as support .
- This increases the probability of a bullish reversal.
4. Entry Confirmation Criteria:
- Wait for a strong green 4-hour candle with high volume near the 149.000 - 149.500 support area.
- If price respects the Fibonacci level and forms a bullish engulfing or strong pin bar, it confirms bullish momentum.
Trade Plan for Bullish Entry:
- Entry: Around 149.000 - 149.500 , once a bullish confirmation candle forms.
- Stop Loss (SL): Below 148.500 (below Fibonacci 0.618 level & previous structure).
- Take Profit (TP):
- TP1: 150.500 (near the trendline break level).
- TP2: 151.500 - 152.000 (major resistance zone).
Risk Management:
- Risk-reward ratio should be at least 1:2 .
- If price breaks below 148.500 , reconsider the bullish bias.
Conclusion:
- The setup favors a bullish trade only if a strong reversal candle appears at the Fibonacci & support zone.
- A breakout above 151.500 - 152.000 could trigger a bigger bullish rally.
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TATA CONSUMERSStock Overview: TATA Consumer Product Ltd, NSE, current price: ₹1,001.90. TATA Consumer Product Ltd operates in the consumer products sector, focusing on food and beverages.
Key Levels:
Support level: ₹878.30 (yellow zone)
Swing zone: ₹970.40 - ₹1,024.50 (green zone)
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 49.61, indicating neutral momentum.
Volume: 9.34M, reflecting moderate trading activity.
Moving Averages (MA): The stock price is above the 200-day MA but below the 50-day MA, signaling mixed trends.
Sector and Market Context: TATA Consumer Product Ltd benefits from its strong brand presence and diverse product portfolio, which allows it to capture a significant market share. Additionally, recent consumer trends, such as a growing preference for healthier food and beverage options, align with the company’s strategy and could further boost its performance in the sector. Market trends show cautious optimism, with investors favoring stable stocks amidst volatility.
Risk Considerations: Potential risks include inflation, shifts in consumer behavior, and global economic events. Company-specific risks such as supply chain disruptions or management changes could also impact performance.
Analysis Summary: TATA Consumer Product Ltd exhibits key support and resistance levels, with target prices suggesting growth potential. Neutral RSI and moderate volume indicate balanced momentum. While moving averages present mixed signals, the stock remains a stable contender within its sector. Investors should weigh market conditions and company-specific risks carefully before making decisions.
Positional or Longterm Opportunity in Axis BankGo Long @ 1005.05 for Targets of 1123, 1182, 1275.35, and 1320.4 with SL 960
Reasons to go Long :
1. On a Weekly timeframe if we draw the Fibonacci retracement tool from the recent swing low (point A) to the recent swing high (point B) then we see stock took support from the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
2. Besides, a bullish candlestick pattern Bullish Engulfing (marked with orange) is formed around the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
3. Also there is a strong Trendline (marked with green color) which supports the stock.
Aavas Financiers Ltd. – Stock Analysis & FundamentalsAavas Financiers Ltd. is a housing finance company specializing in loans for low- and middle-income self-employed individuals in semi-urban and rural areas.
Fundamental Highlights (FY 2023-24)
Total Assets: ₹16,258.38 crore
Net Worth: ₹3,773.32 crore
Debt: ₹12,398.30 crore (Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 3.28)
Total Income: ₹2,020.30 crore
Profit After Tax: ₹490.69 crore
Assets Under Management (AUM): ₹17,312.65 crore
Return on Assets (ROA): 3.05%
Return on Equity (ROE): 14.4%
Net Profit Margin: 24.83%
Stock Performance & Shareholding (March 2025)
Stock Price: ₹2,084.05 (NSE), ₹2,092.45 (BSE)
Market Cap: ₹15,141 crore (Mid-cap)
P/E Ratio: 26.89
P/B Ratio: 3.61
Shareholding Pattern:
Foreign Promoters: 26.47%
Mutual Funds: 22.29%
FIIs: 33.97%
DIIs: 2.69%
Others: 14.58%
Technical Analysis
All-Time High: ₹3,340 (31st Jan 2022)
Major Correction: -60.87% to ₹1,307 (26th March 2024)
Breakout Level: ₹2,068 (recent consolidation breakout)
Bullish Targets (if sustained above ₹2,068):
₹2,310
₹2,510
₹2,865
Reversal Zone (if rejected): ₹1,801 - ₹1,908
Conclusion
Aavas Financiers is fundamentally strong, with solid revenue growth and stable asset quality. If the price sustains above ₹2,068, we may see a bullish rally. However, failure to hold could lead to a pullback toward ₹1,801–₹1,908.
Bank Nifty Weekly Insights: Key Levels & TrendsBank Nifty ended the week at 51,564.85, registering a strong gain of 1.92%.
Key Levels for the Upcoming Week
🔹Price Action Pivot Zone:
The critical range to monitor for potential trend reversals or continuation is 51,452 - 51,679.
🔹Support & Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
S1: 51,113
S2: 50,661
S3: 50,156
Resistance Levels:
R1: 52,021
R2: 52,477
R3: 52,955
Market Outlook
✅Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 51,679 could trigger buying momentum, potentially driving Bank Nifty towards R1 (52,021) and beyond.
❌Bearish Scenario: If the index falls below 51,452, selling pressure may increase, pulling it towards S1 (51,113) and lower levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Investors should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
Nifty 50 at a Turning Point? Key Levels & Market Outlook AheadThe Nifty 50 opened with a gap-up of 165 points (0.71%) and ended the week at 23,519.35 (0.72%), forming a long upper shadow candle on the weekly timeframe.
Understanding the Long Upper Shadow Candle
A long upper shadow candle suggests that Nifty attempted to move higher but faced strong selling pressure, causing it to close significantly lower than its weekly high. This pattern indicates:
Bearish Rejection at Higher Levels– Buyers pushed prices up, but selling pressure forced a pullback, showing weakness at higher levels.
Potential Trend Reversal or Weakness – If followed by a bearish candle, it may signal further downside or correction.
Indecisiveness & Profit Booking – The formation suggests hesitation among traders, possibly due to profit booking by institutional investors.
If Nifty sustains below 23,443, selling pressure may increase. However, a move above 23,597 could restore bullish momentum.
Key Levels for the Upcoming Week
🔹 Price Action Pivot Zone:
The crucial range to watch for potential trend reversals or continuation is 23,443 - 23,597.
🔹 Support & Resistance Levels:
Support:
S1: 23,214
S2: 22,910
S3: 22,577
Resistance:
R1: 23,828
R2: 24,136
R3: 24,420
Market Outlook
✅ Bullish Scenario: A sustained breakout above 23,597 could attract buying momentum, driving Nifty towards R1 (23,828) and beyond.
❌ Bearish Scenario: A drop below 23,443 may trigger selling pressure, pushing Nifty towards S1 (23,214) or lower.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Investors should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
28-03 XAU/USD Key levelsGreetings, Dear traders this is the XAUUSD 15m pivot support zone. Based on market trend and previous day movement, candles taking support at the pivot R1 level 3071.59 suggest a short-term intraday buy direction.
Key levels;
Entry: 3076
Target: 3086
Stop loss: 3066
Risk Reward Ratio 1:1
Note; Intraday view only
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Zomato is showing weakness it may test 170 soon.Zomato is weak on monthly and weakly chart. It forms Fake breakout with double top pattern on monthly chart.
As per chart showing weakness on daily chart also as RSI drag below 40. It can short on any rise or here for target 170 soon.
ALIVUS LIFESCIENCESStock Overview: Alivus Life Sciences Ltd, NSE, current price: ₹1,061.65. Alivus Life Sciences Ltd specializes in pharmaceuticals and life sciences, focusing on drug development and healthcare products.
Key Levels:
Support level (Yellow Zone): ₹817.40
Swing zone (Green Zone): ₹928.00 - ₹1,046.50
Target levels (T): T1: ₹1,275.10, T2: ₹1,385.75, T3: ₹1,526.70, Final target: ₹1,933.70
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 51.14, indicating neutral momentum as it is neither overbought nor oversold.
Volume: Significant spikes during price movements, reflecting strong trading activity and investor interest.
MA (Moving Average): The stock price is above the 200-period moving average, suggesting a long-term bullish trend.
Sector and Market Context: The pharmaceutical sector has demonstrated resilience and growth potential due to ongoing healthcare demands. Alivus Life Sciences Ltd's performance aligns with this trend, showing cautious optimism in a market focused on stable growth sectors.
Risk Considerations: Potential risks include regulatory changes, market competition, and global economic conditions affecting the pharmaceutical industry. Adverse events related to drug approvals or clinical trials could also impact the stock's movement.
Analysis Summary: Alivus Life Sciences Ltd presents a promising technical setup with identified support and target levels. Neutral to bullish indicators like RSI and moving averages, coupled with strong volume activity, suggest investor interest. However, sector-specific risks and broader market conditions should be carefully considered. This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute a direct buy/sell recommendation.
AMBUJA CEMENTS Stock Overview: Ambuja Cements Ltd, traded on the NSE, current price: ₹532.45. Ambuja Cements Ltd is a major cement manufacturing company in India, producing and selling cement and clinker.
Key Levels:
Support (yellow zone): ₹399.10, ₹432.00, ₹464.90
Swing Zone (green zone): ₹512.95 - ₹550.05
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 49.33, indicating neutral momentum as it is near the midpoint of 50.
Volume: 13.99M, showing significant trading activity.
MA (Moving Averages): The stock price is above the 200-day MA (₹549.14) but below the 50-day MA (₹516.90), signaling mixed trends.
Sector and Market Context: Ambuja Cements Ltd operates in the construction materials sector, which has been experiencing moderate growth. The overall market trends show a recovery phase post-pandemic, with infrastructure development being a key driver.
Risk Considerations: Potential risks include fluctuations in raw material prices, regulatory changes, and economic downturns that could impact construction activities. Market conditions such as interest rate changes and global economic events might also influence the stock's movement.
Analysis Summary: Ambuja Cements Ltd shows a mixed technical outlook with neutral RSI and significant trading volume. The stock is in a swing zone with key support and target levels identified. Investors should consider sector performance and market conditions while evaluating this stock.
NIFTY at a Crucial Reversal PointTopic Statement:
NIFTY has been in a correction since October 2024 but may be at a reversal point as key technical levels indicate potential trend shifts.
Key points:
- NIFTY has retraced 23.6%, a level that has provided strong support.
- The medium-term downtrend line has been breached, signaling a possible shift to sideways or upward movement.
- Selling pressure may not resume unless a bearish pattern is established.
Kotak bank consolidation breakoutKotak bank breaking out from consolidation rectangle pattern of about 3.18Y. Rectangle is a continuous pattern and likely to continue the uptrend. Soon ATH breakout and would reach 161.8% fib level after pivot target of 2376.5. RSI also had a clear breakout in weekly timeframe. Also higher timeframe looks good.
AXIS BANKTechnical Analysis Report
Stock Overview: Axis Bank Ltd - NSE - Current Price: ₹1,097.85. Axis Bank Ltd is a prominent private sector bank in India, offering a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury operations.
Key Levels:
Support (Yellow Zone): ₹926.70 - ₹952.52
Swing Zone (Green Zone): ₹1,015.00 - ₹1,091.53
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI value is 52.62, indicating neutral momentum as it is close to the midpoint of 50.
Volume: The trading volume is 8.28M, reflecting moderate investor interest. Higher volume often signals stronger price movements.
MA (Moving Average): The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average (₹1,091.53) but below its 200-day moving average (₹952.52), suggesting a mixed trend.
Sector and Market Context: Axis Bank operates in the financial sector, which has been experiencing fluctuations due to economic conditions, interest rate changes, and regulatory policies. While the overall market shows signs of recovery, uncertainties persist, impacting the banking sector's performance.
Risk Considerations: Potential risks include changes in interest rates, regulatory shifts, economic downturns, and geopolitical events. These factors could influence the stock's movement and overall market sentiment.
Analysis Summary: Axis Bank Ltd presents a mixed technical outlook with identified support and resistance levels. The RSI indicates neutral momentum, and the volume suggests moderate investor interest. Moving averages provide a mixed trend signal. Investors should carefully consider sector and market conditions, along with potential risks, before making investment decisions.