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Fibonacci

Trading Analysis for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (15-Minute Chart)Sorry I am late in giving the signal but I will say that manipulation in XAU/USD is at extreme level. Keep portfolio at least $1000. Take buy position in XAU/USD as much as possible. Not more than $3630.00. Target 1 3353.00 Target 2 3358.00 Target 3 3365.00 Target 4 3372.00 SL 3630.00 Based on the provided 15-minute chart for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD), published by NaviPips on TradingView.com on June 30, 2025, at 17:53 UTC, here’s a suggested trading setup for a buy position: Current Price and Trend: The current price is 3,241.875, with a slight increase of +0.250 (+0.01%). The chart shows a recent downtrend that appears to be stabilizing near the current level, suggesting a potential reversal point. Buy Entry: Enter a buy position at 3,312.875 (current price), as it aligns with a support zone where the price has found a base, indicated by the horizontal dashed line and recent consolidation. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 3,295.250, below the recent low, to protect against further downside. This level is approximately 10.625 points below the entry, defining the risk. Take Profit Levels: Take Profit 1: 3,317.875, a conservative target about 20.000 points above the entry, aligning with a minor resistance zone. Take Profit 2: 3,324.750, a mid-range target approximately 31.875 points above the entry. Take Profit 3: 3,332.500, a deeper target about 45.625 points above the entry, indicating a potential trend reversal. Price Action: The chart indicates a downtrend with a possible bottoming pattern near the current level. The support zone and upward candlestick suggest a buy opportunity if the price holds. Risk-Reward Ratio: The distance to the stop loss (10.625 points) compared to the take profit levels (20.000 to 45.625 points) offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, ranging from approximately 1:1.9 to 1:4.3. Conclusion Enter a buy at 3,241.875, with a stop loss at 3,295.250 and take profit levels at 3,317.875, 3,324.750, and 3,332.500. Monitor the price action for confirmation of an upward move, and be cautious of a potential continued downtrend if the price breaks below the stop loss level. (Note: I assume "take profot" was a typo for "take profit" and have corrected it accordingly.)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NaviPips
2
Waiting for CPI & FED rate cut | Priority Buy at support🟡 XAU/USD – 11/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context US PPI yesterday : Wholesale prices dropped sharply, below forecasts → strengthening expectations of a FED rate cut. FED probabilities : 100% odds for a -25bps cut next week, and even 16% of investors bet on -50bps. Today : US CPI & Jobless Claims – key data to assess inflation & labor, determining the specific cut. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : FED will certainly cut rates, so Gold remains supported in its bullish trend. Short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment or surprises (e.g., tariff news from Trump). 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Resistance) : Bearish OB: 3645 – 3650 (near-term resistance) Weak High: 3674 (target if breakout succeeds) Golden Harbor (Support) : Near support: 3622 FVG Dock: 3603 Bullish OB: 3581 – 3585 (strong mid-term support) Market Structure : H1 shows a short-term bearish BoS, retesting support. Main trend remains bullish → possible pullback to 3622 or 3603 before rallying toward 3670+. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (priority with trend) Entry 1 (FVG): 3603 – 3605 SL: 3592 TP: 3610 – 3615 – 3625 – 365x Entry 2 (Bullish OB): 3581 – 3585 SL: 3572 TP: 3600 – 3620 – 3640 ⚡ Sell (only short scalp at resistance) Sell Zone: 3645 – 3650 SL: 3658 TP: 3635 – 3628 – 3622 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails remain full of wind as the FED is almost certain to cut rates. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3622 – 3603) and the deeper OB 3581 – 3585 are safe havens to follow the bullish tide. If the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3645 – 3650) , only Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps are recommended. The larger voyage still heads north, steering Gold toward new highs at 367x.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Caution ahead of US PPI report | Priority on Sell setups🟡 XAU/USD – 10/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context US 10-year bond yields rebound, signaling the market is awaiting key inflation data. At 07:30, US PPI report will be released – a crucial figure that could strongly influence FED rate expectations. Investors are also eyeing US CPI in the coming days to assess the inflation outlook. The US Supreme Court accepted Trump’s appeal, but this news has not yet had a notable impact on Gold. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Ahead of inflation data, Gold often tends to correct lower due to cautious sentiment. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Key Resistance): Bearish OB: 3654 – 3660 (short-term upper cap) ATH Watchtower: 3700 – 3702 (Sell Zone – possible new ATH test) Golden Harbor (Strong Support): Buy Zone: 3601 – 3602 OB Dock: 3582 – 3585 Currently, price is around 3640 – 3645, after a technical rebound from support. High probability that Gold will retest nearby resistance before a downward correction. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – Daily Priority) Entry 1: 3654 – 3660 SL: 3668 TP: 3654 → 3650 → 3618 → 3610 Entry 2 – ATH Test: 3701 – 3703 SL: 3711 TP: 3688 → 3675 → 3665 → 365x ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Only at deep support) Buy Zone: 3601 – 3603 SL: 3592 TP: 3610 → 3620 → 3630 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The golden ship faces turbulent seas today as it sails near Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3660) . Before the fierce winds called US PPI , sailors should prioritize dropping anchor with short-term SELL positions at resistance. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3601 – 3603) remains a safe haven below, but only when the ship corrects deeply should it dock. On this voyage, Quick Boarding 🚤 is for scalp maneuvers, while the main current is still steered by the stormy waves of inflation.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Update | 15m Outlook🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Structure On the 15-minute timeframe (M15) , price just formed a Break of Structure (BoS) above the previous accumulation zone → confirming temporary control by the Buy side. However, the Bearish Order Block (H1 Zone) around 3655 is being tested, marking a key resistance area. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Bullish Scenario If price holds above the OB zone 3644 – 3655 , buying pressure may continue to push the ship toward the Weak High 3674 . Further ahead, the next destination is Storm Breaker Peak (3701 – 3708) – where strong selling reactions are expected. 📉 Captain’s Chart – Bearish Scenario After sweeping liquidity and touching the Storm Breaker (Sell Zone) , Gold may reverse lower. Key level to monitor: OB 3644 . If this area breaks, the market could open a deeper bearish leg. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Key Levels Golden Harbor (Support) : 3644 – 3655 (OB retest zone) Target (Bullish) : 3674 → 3701 – 3708 Storm Breaker (Sell Zone) : 3701 – 3708 Invalidation : Break below 3644 opens a new bearish journey ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails have just caught new wind after a BoS , showing that the captain and crew still hold a short-term advantage. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3644 – 3655) is the key dock to sustain the bullish trend. If Gold clears the Weak High 3674 , the ship may head straight to Storm Breaker 🌊 (3701 – 3708) , where reversal waves are likely to rise. While the short-term tide remains bullish, Storm Breaker still hides major risks – sailors must sail with strict risk management discipline.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
BASF India – 53% Correction Nearing Wave 5 SupportBASF India, a leading chemicals producer, has witnessed a sharp correction from its euphoric highs of ₹8,750. In just a few months, the stock retraced nearly 53%, wiping out more than half its gains. Wave count From the ATH, price unfolded into a 5-wave impulse decline, bottoming near ₹4,065. This completed the Wave A of the zigzag. The subsequent recovery to ₹5,424 shaped up as a clear A-B-C corrective rally. Since then, the stock has been carving out another 5-wave decline, now progressing towards its final leg (Wave 5 and eventually Wave C of the zigzag). The support zone around ₹4,000 remains crucial — a likely area for Wave 5 to bottom. Momentum Check RSI sits near 43, showing weakness. No strong bullish divergence yet, which hints at the possibility of one last dip before a reversal attempt. Outlook If Wave 5 completes around the ₹4,000 zone, this could complete the ABC zigzag and BASF India could set the stage for a larger rebound sequence into 2026. If price breaks below 4000 convincingly and continues the downtrend, then we are in for a further deep correction. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BASFShort
by WaveXplorer
Trent Ltd – Double Zigzag Correction in PlayAfter topping out at ₹8,345, Trent has been locked in a larger corrective structure that now appears to be unfolding as a W–X–Y double zigzag on the weekly chart. Wave Count Wave W bottomed at ₹4,715 as a clear ABC. The rally to ₹6,261 completed Wave X. Price is now progressing in Wave Y, where: Wave A has unfolded, Wave B topped at ₹5,674, Wave C is expected to continue lower. Key Levels Target 1 (1.0 extension): ₹4,370 Target 2 (1.618 extension): ₹3,565 Stop-loss / Invalidation: Trading level: ₹5,674 (Wave B high) Structural level: ₹6,261 (Wave X high) RSI Check RSI remains below 50, confirming bearish momentum. Conclusion The correction appears incomplete with scope for another leg down before a larger recovery can begin. While the working invalidation sits at ₹5,674, structurally the bearish count holds until ₹6,261 is broken. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:TRENTShort
by WaveXplorer
Infy Trades Sideways Since 2022, Offering Support-Driven Entry OTopic Statement: Infosys has remained stuck in a broad sideways zone since 2022, with strong support levels offering promising long-term accumulation signals. Key Points: 1. The stock has been range-bound between 1400 and 2000, repeatedly failing to break above the upper resistance 2. It currently stands on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, where it is receiving strong support 3. Price is below the 200-day EMA, making the stock technically oversold and presenting an attractive investment opportunity
NSE:INFY
by yogeshwar
Gold Plan - Waiting for a pullback to Buy safely | New ATH ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 09/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context FED : The probability of a September rate cut is now almost certain, reinforcing confidence that flows will continue moving into Gold. Dollar : Dropped to a 7-week low due to FED rate cut expectations, adding further support for Gold. US Economic Data : No major news today, the market focus remains on interest rates. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Gold remains in a strong uptrend. However, Vincent advises waiting for a pullback into support to Buy safely , avoiding chasing price at higher levels. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) : Quick Boarding: 3654 – 3656 (Short-term Sell scalp) Storm Breaker Peak: 3673 – 3675 (Sell zone – potential new ATH) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) : Buy Scalp Dock: 3615 – 3617 Main Golden Harbor: 3597 – 3599 (Strong support) Price structure remains bullish after multiple BOS – Break of Structure. Current highs may trigger short-term profit-taking waves before Gold pulls back to Golden Harbor and then rallies toward ATH 367x . 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority with trend) Buy Scalp: 3615 – 3617 | SL: 3598 | TP: 3620 → 3623 → 3626 → 3630 → 36xx Main Buy Zone: 3597 – 3599 | SL: 3589 | TP: 3660 → 3663 → 3666 → 3670 → 36xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Only at resistance) Sell Zone 1: 3654 – 3656 | SL: 3662 | TP: 3650 → 3647 → 3644 → 3640 → 36xx Sell Zone 2 – Storm Breaker Peak (ATH test): 3673 – 3675 | SL: 3682 | TP: 3670 → 3667 → 3664 → 3660 → 36xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The interest rate winds from the FED continue to power the Golden sails. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3597 – 3599) is the safe haven for sailors trusting the bullish tide. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3615 – 3617) is just a short ride before the voyage resumes. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3675) may bring big waves, but it’s only suitable for technical scalps – as the main current still carries Gold toward new highs.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
1
Birlasoft: Running or Expanded Flat Correction [3-3-5] in PlayAfter completing a strong rally to ₹861.85(identified as Wave B), Birlasoft has been locked in a corrective structure that is shaping up as a flat . At this stage, it remains open whether this develops as a Running Flat or an Expanded Flat . The Structure So Far Wave A bottomed at ₹251.90, setting the first leg of the correction. Wave B extended sharply to ₹861.85, exceeding the prior Wave 3 peak. Wave C has unfolded in five waves, with Wave (iii) bottoming at ₹331 — exactly the 100% Fibonacci extension of Wave (i) projected from Wave (ii). Key Levels to Watch ₹251.90 → If price holds above, Wave 4 qualifies as a Running Flat . If broken below , Wave 4 shifts into an Expanded Flat . ₹452 → The Wave (iv) high acts as the bearish invalidation level . RSI Context The RSI remains weak , Wave 4 often ends with bullish divergence in its fifth wave , which could trigger the start of the next impulse — Wave 5. Moving Averages A weekly 50/200 MA crossover confirms broader weakness, but such crossovers often come late in the cycle, which might suggest that Wave 4 may be nearing exhaustion. Outlook Birlasoft’s correction is in its final stages. A bullish divergence on RSI, combined with price stability above ₹251.90, could set the stage for Wave 5 rally to new highs . Conversely, a break below this critical level confirms an Expanded Flat and delays the bullish sequence. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BSOFTShort
by WaveXplorer
XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 | Captain VincentObserving JPY & USD | Buy still holds dominance 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context This morning there were no major new updates. The US session tonight (08/09) will also not release big data. The latest impact on the market is Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY downward and slightly lifted the Dollar. However, Gold only made a small correction and maintained strong stability. ➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY currently only have indirect influence, not enough to push Gold deeply lower. The main trend is still supported for a bullish rebound. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Captain’s Shield (Main Support): Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549 Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 Storm Breaker (Resistance): Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp) Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – may form a new ATH) ⏩ Price structure remains bullish (continuous BOS). Corrections are mainly liquidity grabs before pushing up to higher resistance zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3602 – 3604 SL: 3610 TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH) Entry: 3632 – 3634 SL: 3640 TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x ⚓ Captain’s Note “The golden ship sails steadily as the seas remain calm this morning, with no big news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) together with OB near 3542 is the safe anchorage for sailors riding the bullish trend. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is just a temporary anchor before the bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those who want to ride short-term waves. And if the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , it may be a new wave peak – but the grand journey is still headed North with the bullish sails full of wind.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Reliance Moves Steadily in Mild Bullish Channel, Approaches Key Topic Statement: Reliance is trading within a wide, mildly bullish uptrend, offering clear accumulation opportunities as it nears key moving average levels. Key Points: 1. The stock is moving in a broad and mildly bullish up-trending channel, making it suitable for structured channel trading 2. A recent double top candlestick pattern has formed, indicating potential near-term resistance 3. The price is currently above the 50-day EMA, and dips below it has historically offered good investment entries 4. The stock is approaching the 200-day EMA, a level that often marks oversold territory and presents strong long-term buying opportunities
NSE:RELIANCELong
by yogeshwar
Indian Railway Finance Corporation – Complex Correction in PlayDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. Technical Picture Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) stock rallied from the swing low of 65.75 to an all-time high of 229 in a strong impulsive move. Since then, the stock has entered a corrective phase. The decline from 229 to 108.04 unfolded as a clear three-wave ABC zigzag. From 108.04 to 148.95, the rise was overlapping and choppy, best counted as an X wave triangle rather than a fresh impulsive sequence. The fall from 148.95 to 117.33 looks impulsive and is labelled as Wave A of the Y leg. The ongoing bounce can be labelled as Wave B, with retracement levels around 124–129 acting as possible resistance. Once Wave B completes, a Wave C decline is expected to finish Wave Y. This Y leg can either: terminate near 108.04, forming a double bottom structure, or extend toward the 0.786 retracement of the 65.75–229 rally, around 100.70. Momentum and Indicators On the D,2D and Weekly charts, RSI is below the 50 mark, showing weak momentum. Price remains under the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, which are acting as resistances (not plotted here to keep the chart uncluttered). The invalidation level for this corrective view is 148.95. A break above this level would challenge the corrective structure and point to a new impulsive rally. Fundamentals Growth : FY25 sales at Rs 27,152 crore vs Rs 26,645 crore in FY24. Net profit at Rs 6,502 crore vs Rs 6,412 crore. Quarterly profits continue steady. Cash flows : Operating cash flow improved to Rs 8,229 crore. Net cash flow turned positive at Rs 5,657 crore from negative last year. Leverage : Debt-to-equity is high at 7.83, with interest coverage at just 1.3x, leaving little buffer. Returns and margins : Return on equity stands at 12.3%, but margins have narrowed from earlier highs. Valuation : P/E around 25 and P/B at 3.1 suggest the stock is not cheap given its nature as a financing PSU. in.tradingview.com Summary IRFC appears to be in the final stages of a complex W–X–Y correction. Wave Y is unfolding, and price can either find support near 108.04 to form a double bottom or stretch further toward the 100.70 zone. The 129 area is key resistance for the current B wave bounce, and 148.95 remains the invalidation level. While the company’s fundamentals are stable with steady sales and profits, the balance sheet remains heavily leveraged, and valuations are not inexpensive. Investors should watch for price action around 108–100 for signs of a structural bottom and confirmation before positioning for the next major trend.
NSE:IRFCShort
by WaveXplorer
Varun Beverages Ltd – Wave 2 Setup at Trendline SupportVarun Beverages Ltd. (VBL), PepsiCo’s second-largest global bottling partner, has been through a long and exhausting corrective phase. On the Elliott Wave chart, this stretched out as a W–X–Y–X–Z sequence, finally bottoming out at ₹449.3 . On the current chart you may not clearly see the entire W–X–Y–X–Z sequence, as it plays out on a slightly smaller scale — but it has been marked. From that final low of ₹449.3, price started a fresh impulse : Wave 1 up, then a tiny Wave 2 ending at ₹450 (just above the start of Wave 1). A smooth, non-overlapping Wave 3, 4, and 5 followed, with Wave 5 topping at ₹534.20. This whole structure completes a higher-degree Wave 1 . The current decline from ₹534.20 is unfolding as a classic ABC zigzag , which fits perfectly as a Wave 2 correction . Why this zone matters Fibonacci retracement: Price is now testing the 0.786 retrace of the entire rally (449.3 → 534.2). Trendline support: Aligns with a long-term rising trendline. Invalidation: As per Elliott rules, Wave 2 cannot break below 449.3 (start of Wave 1). That level is the final stop-loss. Trading roadmap Entry Zone: Around 467–470 (Fib + trendline confluence). Stop-loss: 449.3 (Wave 1 origin). Targets: A move above 534.20 would confirm Wave 3 is in progress, with further Wave 4 and Wave 5 projections to be plotted as price action evolves. This makes the setup very attractive from a risk–reward perspective : a tight stop vs. potentially large upside. Fundamentals lining up VBL just incorporated its joint venture with White Peak Refrigeration Pvt. Ltd . for visi-coolers and refrigeration equipment. Q2 CY2025: despite a 3% volume dip, revenue grew 2.5% and net profit rose 5% , aided by efficiencies and lower finance costs. International volumes (esp. South Africa, +16%) remain strong. So, while the chart points to a possible Wave 2 bottom , the fundamentals also provide support. (Source: in.tradingview.com) Conclusion If support holds at current levels, Varun Beverages could be setting up for a strong Wave 3 rally . If ₹449.3 is breached , the bullish impulse count is invalid and the structure must be re-evaluated. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:VBLLong
by WaveXplorer
XAU/USD – FED, Tariffs & NFP Today | Captain Vincent🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News The probability of a FED rate cut in September has risen to 99.4% (from 96.6%) → almost certain. FED’s Cook is under fraud investigation , combined with weak prior economic data → further strengthens momentum for Gold. US–Japan deal : US reduces chip import tariffs to 15%, in return Japan invests 550B USD + purchases 8B USD in agricultural products. Although positive, it does not change the main outlook as markets remain focused on interest rates & inflation. Trump : Threatens tariffs on all chip/semis companies not entering the US → raises geopolitical concerns. NFP & Unemployment Rate (UR) tonight at 19:30 → key event, may trigger strong volatility. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Capital flow still leans towards BUY Gold thanks to FED rate cut expectations, but short-term shakeouts may occur before/after the news. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis M30 BOS: Gold has just formed a Break of Structure, overall trend remains bullish. Captain’s Shield (Support): 3484 – 3486 (Main Buy Zone). Storm Breaker (Resistance): 3575 – 3593 (aligned with Fibo 0.5 – 0.618). If it breaks 3591 – 3593 → pathway to new ATH 3608 – 3610 or higher. If it fails at Storm Breaker → price may retest Golden Harbor (3484) before bouncing back. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3484 – 3486 SL: 3478 TP: 3490 → 3493 → 3497 → 3505 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3575 – 3577 SL: 3585 TP: 3570 → 3565 → 3560 → 3555 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Resistance) Entry: 3591 – 3593 SL: 3600 TP: 3588 → 3585 → 3580 → 3575 → 35xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden ship sails smoothly as FED is almost certain to cut rates in September. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3484) is the safe anchorage to continue riding the bullish tide. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3575–3593) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main current still carries us North.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Market awaits JOLTS, Gold holds safe-haven role⚓️ Captain Vincent – XAU/USD: US–Venezuela tensions push Gold as safe haven 1. Market News 🌍 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the US military attacked a drug ship departing from Venezuela, as Washington steps up pressure on the Maduro government. Earlier, Trump offered a $50 million bounty to force Venezuela’s President out of power, while deploying military forces near the Caribbean coast. 👉 These moves raise fears of a potential regional conflict, making Gold the top safe-haven asset. The strong rally this morning reflects safe-haven flows returning to GOLD. 📌 Tonight’s focus (3/9 – 21:00): JOLTS Job Openings report – a key gauge of US labour market health. If the data comes weaker than expected → USD may face more pressure → Gold could accelerate higher. 2. Technical Analysis ⚙️ On the H1 chart, Gold has formed multiple BOS (Break of Structure), showing the bullish trend remains in control. Buy Zone 3,478 – 3,480: Aligns with a major Order Block, strong support for pullback entries. Sell Zone 3,577 – 3,579: Near fib extension 1.618, potential resistance where profit-taking may appear. Key Support – Resistance zones: Support: 3,528 – 3,507 Resistance: 3,562 – 3,585 3. Trade Scenarios 📌 🔺 BUY Zone (Priority) Entry: 3,478 – 3,480 SL: 3,470 TP: 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,489 → 349x → 35xx 🔻 SELL Zone (Resistance) Entry: 3,577 – 3,579 SL: 3,586 TP: 3,573 → 3,570 → 3,567 → 3,560 → 35xx 4. Conclusion ⚓ Gold continues to benefit from US–Venezuela geopolitical tensions, while maintaining a bullish structure with consecutive BOS signals. In the short term, traders may: Look to BUY around 3,478 – 3,480 to follow the main trend. Watch for short-term SELL at 3,577 – 3,579 if price retests strong resistance. 👉 With geopolitical risks rising and US economic data (JOLTS) due tonight, Gold remains the No.1 safe-haven asset.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
FED dovish, Gold stays bullish; SELL only for scalps⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD 1. Market Wave 🌍 The probability of a FED rate cut in September surged to 96.6% (vs 90.4% earlier) after the JOLTS report showed weakening job prospects. Several FED officials, from Kashkari to Bostic, shifted dovish. Only Musallim maintained a hawkish stance with a scenario of just one cut. 👉 Result: Capital flows returned to Gold as the No.1 safe haven, pushing prices strongly higher overnight. 📌 Key data today (04/09 – US time): ADP Nonfarm (7:15) Jobless Claims (7:30) ISM Services PMI (9:00) ➡️ This trio of data will be crucial catalysts for GOLD volatility. 2. Technical Analysis ⚙️ On M30/H1, Gold continues to form bullish BOS, keeping the main trend upward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3,477 – 3,479): Old Order Block, strong support if price pulls back. Quick Boarding 🚤 (Sell Scalp 3,561 – 3,563): Only for short-term scalps. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3,573 – 3,575): Aligned with Fibo 0.618–0.786, strong resistance with potential selling pressure. Captain’s Shield 🛡️ (Support): 3,526 – 3,515 – 3,508 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3,477 – 3,479 SL: 3,470 TP: 3,480 → 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,491 → 349x → 35xx 🚤 Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short Ride) Entry: 3,561 – 3,563 SL: 3,569 TP: 3,558 → 3,555 → 3,552 → 354x 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Strong Resistance) Entry: 3,573 – 3,575 SL: 3,581 TP: 3,570 → 3,565 → 3,560 → 3,555 → 35xx 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ "The golden sail is filled with wind as the FED turns dovish. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3477) remains the safe haven to align with the bullish trend. SELLs are just Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps at Storm Breaker 🌊 , not long voyages."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Bearish Pressure Builds: Gold Poised for More RetreatGold retreated sharply today as expected, and directly hit my expected retracement target of 3520-3510 area; the lowest point happened to be around 3511. We added a lot of short positions around 3575 and 3578 overnight, which helped us to make considerable profits during the gold retreat. All short positions made a total profit of 1830pips after being closed. Since gold has begun to retreat from 3578, and the retracement has reached 670 pips in the short term, a retracement that is rare in recent times, as gold has shown obvious signs of retreat, once large funds begin to withdraw, it may trigger serious selling sentiment in the market. Taking this opportunity, the gold market may usher in a round of sharp correction. Moreover, after gold retreats, 3578 is expected to become the interim peak, which will limit the room for gold to rebound while being conducive to the downward pressure on gold. In addition, gold rose sharply before the NFP market, probably to reserve room for the NFP market to fall, so I think gold still has the demand and space to continue to retreat, so the current decline has not ended yet, and I think the current short-term rebound provides us with good conditions for entering the short market. According to the current structure, gold still needs to retreat after fluctuating at high levels. Therefore, in trading, we can still look for suitable opportunities to short gold during the gold rebound. First of all, we need to pay attention to the short-term resistance area of 3545-3555. Once gold cannot effectively stand in this area during the rebound, gold will also test the 3510-3500 area. After falling below this area, it is expected to continue to the 3490-3480 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
2
Bullish Cup & Handle – A Powerful Continuation Chart Pattern🔹 Intro / Overview ☕ The Cup and Handle is a 📈 bullish continuation pattern often studied in technical analysis. ⚔️ It forms when there is a fight between bulls 🐂 and bears 🐻 — the Cup develops as both remain strong. 📉 During the Handle, sellers 🛑 temporarily gain strength. 📈 But when price closes above the Validation Line, buyers regain control 💪 and bullish momentum dominates. ____________________________________________________________ 📖 How to Identify ✅ Validation → The pattern is valid if price closes above the Validation Line. ❌ Devalidation → The pattern is invalid if price closes below the Devalidation Line(before Validation). 📉 Retracement Rule →The pattern is only confirmed if the price closes below the Retracement Line during the Handle formation. This ensures a proper pullback forms before breakout . ____________________________________________________________ 📖 Key Points of Pattern ✅ A valid Cup requires the retracement condition — confirmation occurs only if price closes below the Retracement Line . ⚖️ Balanced Highs → Point A (left peak) and Point C (right peak) should be relatively close in price, ensuring a proper Cup shape 🍵. 🔒 The Handle must not break the structural integrity of the Cup.(No Close Below Devalidation Lines) ____________________________________________________________ 🎯 Trading Plan (Educational Only) 📌 Entry → Considered only after confirmation when price closes above the Validation Line. 🛡️ Stop-Loss (SL) → After validation, the Devalidation Line may act as an SL. 🎯 Target (TP) → First Target → 1R (equal to the risk defined by Entry–SL distance). Remaining Lots → Trail using ATR, Fibonacci levels, Box Trailing, or structure-based stops. ____________________________________________________________ 📊 Chart Explanation 🍵 The Cup forms with a rounded base Point B and two balanced tops: Point A (left peak) & Point C (right peak) - The marginal price difference should be small to ensure a reliable Cup. 📈 The Retracement Line ( Point D ) confirms the pattern only if price closes below the Fibonacci Level of 78.60% and above the 50.00% . 📉 The Handle develops as price pulls back, with Point E marking the Handle low. and Good Handle of Cup is Formed (this low should not go below 50.00% Level ) 📏 The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from Point B (Cup base) to Point C (right peak). These levels provide a reference framework to observe Retracement (minimum 78.60%) , Validation (100.00%) , and Devalidation (50.00%) areas for educational study of the structure. ____________________________________________________________ 👀 Observations ✨ Works best after a strong uptrend 🚀 or at major support–resistance zones 🧱. ⚖️ A balanced Cup (Top Right ≈ Top Left) improves reliability. 📏 Handle Formation The Handle should be shorter than the Cup depth — and should also be longer than the required minimum depth for proper structure. If the Handle is too deep, it weakens the setup — and also if it is too short, the formation loses reliability. ____________________________________________________________ ❗ Why It Matters 🔍 Shows the market battle between buyers and sellers. 💪 Highlights how buyers regain dominance after retracement validation. ⚖️ Balanced structure + strict rules = better filtering of weak setups. 📝 Provides clarity on entry, SL, and TP with a structured framework. ____________________________________________________________ 🎯 Conclusion The Cup and Handle pattern, when validated through Fibonacci retracement rules 📉, balanced highs ⚖️, and proper Handle structure 🔒, offers a disciplined framework for studying bullish continuation setups. 🔥 Patterns don’t predict. Rules protect. ____________________________________________________________ ⚠️ Disclaimer 📘 For educational purposes only. 🙅 Not SEBI registered. ❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation. 🧠 Purely a learning resource. 📊 Not Financial Advice.
NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECTEducation
by MarketAlgoBot
Atul Auto | MTF Fibonacci Confluence structuresWeekly Chart Analysis – Drew a multi-timeframe Fibonacci from the 119.35 low (Mar ’20) to the 844.60 high (Oct ’24) on the Monthly time frame . – Highlighted the 50–61.8% retracement zone (481.95–396.40) as an orange supply/demand area. – Circles mark historical pivots where price reacted as support or resistance within this zone. Key Observations -Price consistently respected the 50–61.8% band during prior rallies and pullbacks. -Recent price action formed a contracting triangle (CT) at the lower edge of the Fibonacci zone. -Volume contraction noted inside the triangle, suggesting supply–demand equilibrium. Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should perform your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
NSE:ATULAUTOLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis