08 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on FinNifty - weekly analysis - neutral !FinNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, CNXFINANCE has fallen 219pts ~ 1.08%. The majority of the fall came on 02 and 03 Aug after which we have seen a recovery of 1.9% from the lows.
FinNifty Today Analysis
If you look at today’s 5mts chart, it was a steady upward moving market with a healthy pullback. Even when the index was falling from 10.55 to 11.30 - there was no visible threat in the short term upward bias. Shortly after this fall we had a rally of 104 pts to hit an intraday high of 20120 by 14.25.
The short term stance continues to be neutral with a slight bullish bias because we just cut through a bearish trend line.
Finniftyintradatradesetup
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 8th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. The global market sentiment is slightly positive (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it doesn't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market. On the other hand, if the market surpasses yesterday's high, we can expect a continuation of the rally with minor corrections."
FinNifty weekly expiry on 08/08/23.Finnifty on the daily charts has formed a dojo after a gap up opening and has closed below the 20 ema.
DJI has given a bullish candle closing 400 points higher which gives a bullish move prediction in Indian markets too.
On the hourly charts market has consolidated in a range of 100 points, closing between both the moving averages. Consolidation in done and breakout can give nice target. There is a bullish diverge in RSI indicator too.
Even on 15 minute charts, it has closed between both the moving averages.
Support :- 19970, 19870
Resistance :- 20050-90, 20210
The market has consolidated and bullish trades can be initiated once 20090 levels are crossed.
Watch option premium as there will be time decay due to weekly expiry in FinNifty.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 7th, the global market sentiment is slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it doesn't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market.
On the other hand, if the market surpasses yesterday's high, we can expect a continuation of the rally with minor corrections."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 4th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. However, the global market sentiment is slightly positive (based on the Dow Jones alone), and the market trend is bearish. There is a possibility of opening with a neutral to slight gap-up. Afterward, if the initial market breaks the previous day's closing price, it will reach the 38% Fib level. This level acts as a strong resistance, so there might be a rejection here. We can expect a continuation of the pullback only if the market breaks the 38% Fib level.
On the other hand, if the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a continuation of corrections with minor pullbacks, but it should break the previous day's low."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 3rd, the global market sentiment is slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), and the market trend is bearish. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down doesn't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a continuation of corrections with minor pullbacks (potentially breaking the previous day's low).
On the other hand, if the initial market undergoes some consolidation, there is a possibility of a 50 to 61% pullback (with the potential to break the 38% Fib level)."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 2nd, the global market sentiment is negative (based on Dow Jones only), and the market nature is moderately bearish. Therefore, it might begin with a minor gap-down. Following that, if the market rejects the immediate support, we can expect it to move within a range-bound structure to pullback continuation. This is because there is an ongoing sub-wave two. We can anticipate a correction only if the market breaks the swing bottom."
01 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on FinNifty and weekly analysisFinNifty Analysis
From the last expiry and today, Finnifty has fallen 197pts ~ 0.96%. We did hit an ATH of 20666 on 27th Jul and the same day we fell quite deeply. Today’s close is almost matching the intraday low set on that day.
Today’s Analysis
There was some interesting price action till 12.50 today - the fall was quite decent to watch esp after a gap up open. However the momentum was not in favor and we quickly gained back 82pts ~ 0.41% to finally close flattish. The usual volatility was missing today. Usually the trading in finnifty sucks out the liquidity from nifty and banknifty - but did not see that much activity today. Will wait for final traded contract numbers from exchange to verify this.
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Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with the levels I am watching for tomorrow !
#finniftyGood morning! As of August 1st, the global market has a slightly positive sentiment (based on only Dow Jones), and the market nature is moderately bullish. Therefore, it might start with a minor gap-up. After that, if the market rejects the immediate resistance, we can expect a minor correction. On the other hand, if it breaks through, it moves your target to the next resistance level. However, if the market opens gap-down, we can expect a range-bound market. We can anticipate a correction only if it breaks the previous bottom.
#finnifty"Good morning! As of July 31st, there is no significant difference between the last session, but the global market has a neutral sentiment (based on only Dow Jones), and the market nature is bearish. Therefore, it doesn't matter if it opens gap-up or down. If the initial market takes sharp declines, we can expect correction continuation with minor pullbacks.
On the other hand, we can expect a rally only if it opens with a gap-up and sustains above the level of fib 38%. If it sustains, our next targets are 61% and 78%. Here, I mentioned a reversal structure (alternate view). If it rejects sharply around the 61% or 78%, we can expect a correction, but use the confirmation signal of (EMA20 and fib level 38%). If it breaks both signals, we can expect a correction. Otherwise, the rally might continue."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of July 27th, the global market indicates a negative start (based on only Dow Jones), and the market nature is bearish. Therefore, it doesn't matter if it opens gap-up or down; if the initial market takes sharp declines, we can expect correction continuation with minor pullbacks. On the other hand, we can expect a rally only if it opens with a gap-up and sustains above the level of fib 38%. If it sustains, our next targets are 61% and 78%. Here, I mentioned a reversal structure (alternate view). If it rejects sharply around the 61% or 78%, we can expect a correction, but use the confirmation signal of (EMA20 and fib level 38%). If it breaks both signals, we can expect a correction. Otherwise, the rally might continue."
#finniftyGood morning! As of July 27th, the global market is starting positively, with GIFT Nifty showing a +75 point increase from the previous session. The market seems to be moving in a range without significant differences compared to before. It's moderately bullish, meaning there's an upward bias. We might see a gap-up opening. If the market stays within the range, it's likely to continue going up without a big drop.
#finniftyGood morning! As of July 26th, the global market is starting positively, with GIFT Nifty showing a +12 point increase from the previous session. The market seems to be moving in a range without significant differences compared to before. It's moderately bullish, meaning there's an upward bias. We might see a slight gap-up opening. If the market stays within the range, it's likely to continue going up without a big drop. However, be cautious of a potential correction if it breaks below the immediate support zone
#finnifty"Good morning! As of July 25th, the global market is indicating a positive start, with GIFT Nifty showing a +45 point increase. There is no significant difference from the last session, suggesting a range-bound market structure. The market's nature is moderately bullish, and there is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If it sustains within the range, we can expect the market to continue without a correction. However, a correction may occur if it breaks below the immediate support zone."
#FinniftyGood morning! As of July 24th, the global market is indicating a negative start, with GIFT Nifty showing a -40 point decrease. The market nature is moderately bullish, but there is a possibility of a slight gap-down opening. after that If it takes a pullback, then the range will continue; however, if the gap-down sustains, we can expect correction continuation. That should break the immediate support zone.
#FinniftyGood morning! As of July 20th, the global market is indicating a positive start with GIFT Nifty showing a +2 points increase, resulting in a moderate bullish market sentiment. There is no significant difference compared to the last session, and there is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market maintains its structure, we can expect a rally continuation with minor corrections. However, in the event of a sharp decline in the initial market, we can anticipate only a minor correction.
#FinniftyGood morning! As of July 19th, the global market is showing a positive start (GIFT Nifty +5) with a moderate bullish market sentiment. There is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market sustains its structure, we can expect a range market to continue rallying. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp decline, we can anticipate a minor correction.
18 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on FinNifty + Expiry SpecialWe had a gap up open and the high was formed the first swing i.e. 20476.25 by 09.25, from there the momentum was lost & we started falling.
There was a 1.19% fall between 11.15 to 12.20, then a brief recovery and then the selling continued. The options premium was elevated today, usually we do not have high premiums for Finnifty expiry. Most noticeably even the Nifty50 and BankNifty options premiums spiked today.
Between the last expiry & today, finnifty gained 1.4% ~ 279pts. Although we did not retest the ATH of 4th July, we came quite close today. The index is not looking weak though and we would require a sharp selling for a change in bullish bias.
#finnifty"Good morning! As of July 18th, the global market is showing a neutral start (GIFT Nifty +6) with a bullish market sentiment. There is no significant difference compared to the last session. There is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market sustains its structure, we can expect a rally continuation with minor corrections. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp decline, we can anticipate a minor correction."
#finnifty"Good morning, As of July 17th, the global market is showing a neutral start with a moderately bullish market sentiment. There is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market sustains structurally, we can expect a rally continuation with minor corrections. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp decline, we can expect a range market correction."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of July 14th, the global market is showing a neutral start with a moderately bearish market sentiment. There is a possibility of a slight gap-down opening. If the market sustains this gap-down, we can anticipate a continuation of the correction with minor pullbacks. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp pullback, we can expect bending waves."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of July 13th, the global market is showing a neutral start with a moderately bearish market sentiment. It might open with a slight gap-down. If it sustains, we can expect a continuation of the correction with minor pullbacks. Conversely, if the initial market experiences a sharp pullback, then the range market will continue. We can expect a rally only if the market breaks the previous high."
#finniftyGood morning! As of July 12th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. The global market is showing a positive start with moderately bearish market sentiment. It might open with a gap-up. If it sustains, we can expect the continuation of the pullback. after that if it rejects the immediate resistance zone, it will turn into a range market for correction. Conversely, if the initial market experiences a sharp decline, then the correction will continue.