Euro Dollar Analysis – Corrective Rebound or Bearish Setup?EUR/USD continues to operate within a controlled market cycle. The sharp decline earlier this week highlighted strong bearish momentum, followed by a corrective rebound that served as a liquidity reset. This rebound is less about trend reversal and more about rebalancing order flow after an aggressive selloff.
The current structure suggests the market may still seek liquidity higher before resuming its dominant direction. A sweep toward the 1.1780 area could attract late buyers, providing larger players the opportunity to offload positions before driving price lower again.
Overall, EUR/USD remains tilted toward the downside. The corrective phase is acting as a preparation stage, positioning the pair for another potential bearish leg once redistribution completes.
Forextrading
AUDNZD Trading Idea – Momentum & Liquidity OutlookThe pair has been in a clear expansion phase, showing strength after multiple structure breaks. Momentum has favored the upside, while recent consolidation reflects market participants taking profits and rebalancing orders.
A corrective wave appears to be unfolding, which is typical after strong impulsive moves. Such phases often allow liquidity collection before the next directional expansion. The broader sentiment suggests that buyers are still active, but short-term volatility may create temporary pullbacks.
Educational Note: Markets move in cycles of impulse and correction. Recognizing these phases helps traders avoid chasing moves and instead prepare for continuation opportunities once the correction stabilizes.
USDJPY (Neowave Trading Idea)FX:USDJPY Namaskaram Everyone
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Gold shakes violently | Priority Buy on dip to support🟡 XAU/USD – 24/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Geopolitics : Trump unexpectedly supported Ukraine reclaiming full territory and called on NATO to be tougher on Russia → defensive sentiment returned, supporting Gold.
US Economy : Housing data due today, no FED speeches.
Earlier: Weak US PMI + dovish FED tone → no momentum for a prolonged downtrend.
Price Action : Gold dropped more than 20 points overnight, then quickly rebounded to 3,76x → likely profit-taking pressure at higher levels.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Main trend stays bullish, but the voyage will remain choppy as Gold absorbs profit-taking near resistance.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H45)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Buy Scalp OB: 3,754 – 3,757
OB Harbor: 3,741 – 3,744
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
Sell Scalp Zone: 3,797 – 3,800
Higher Sell Zone: 3,813 – 3,815
Market Structure
After the deep drop, Gold rebounded and held above 3,76x.
Bullish trend remains intact, but waves of volatility may occur near higher resistance zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Scalp OB
Entry: 3,754 – 3,757
SL: 3,747
TP: 3,762 – 3,767 – 3,772 – 3,777 – 3,782
Buy Zone OB
Entry: 3,741 – 3,744
SL: 3,732
TP: 3,749 – 3,754 – 3,759 – 3,764 – 3,769
⚡ Sell (short scalp – lower RR)
Sell Scalp Zone
Entry: 3,797 – 3,800
SL: 3,806
TP: 3,795 – 3,790 – 3,785 – 3,780 – 3,775
Higher Sell Zone
Entry: 3,813 – 3,815
SL: 3,823
TP: 3,810 – 3,805 – 3,800 – 3,795 – 3,790
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship rocked violently overnight but still anchored firmly at Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,754 – 3,741) . Profit-taking waves may still rise at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,797 – 3,815) , suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Yet the main voyage continues north – Buy the Dip remains the compass to follow the strong winds.”
📢 If you find the Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest signals.
💬 Got your own view on Gold? Share it in the comments and join the crew discussion!
Gold hits record 3,759 | Safe-haven flows surge back🟡 XAU/USD – 23/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Today Gold surged nearly +2% , hitting a record $3,759/oz .
Geopolitical tensions : Israel launched missiles into Lebanon, killing 5 (including 4 US citizens) → safe-haven demand rushed back into Gold.
USD weakened , capital flowed out of stocks & bonds → strong support for precious metals.
ETFs & speculators : heavy buying amplified the rally.
Silver : jumped to its highest level in 14 years, reinforcing strength in the precious metals sector.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is fueled by geopolitics, macro factors, and safe-haven demand. But after a hot rally, the big question: continue breaking highs or face sharp swings if the FED shifts tone?
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H45)
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,771 – 3,787 (Fibo 0.5–0.618 confluence, ATH test zone)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Near support: 3,740 (previous high turned support)
OB Dock: 3,717 – 3,723
Breakout Harbor: 3,689 – 3,691
Market Structure
Gold broke out to Higher High around 3,755 – 3,759.
Main trend remains bullish, but prone to volatility / pullback after a hot rally.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (OB)
Entry: 3,717 – 3,723
SL: 3,707
TP: 3,725 – 3,730 – 3,735 – 3,740 – 3,750
Buy Zone 2 (Breakout Retest)
Entry: 3,689 – 3,691
SL: 3,678
TP: 3,699 – 3,710 – 3,7xx
⚡ Sell (short-term scalp if overbought)
Sell Zone (ATH test)
Entry: 3,783 – 3,785
SL: 3,795
TP: 3,759 – 3,740 – 3,717
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The geopolitical storm pushed the Golden sails past 3,759. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,717 – 3,689) is the safe dock for sailors to board the northbound trend. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,771 – 3,787) may raise heavy waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. The main voyage remains bullish, but after a hot rally, sailors must keep a firm hand on the helm to avoid being thrown off by choppy swings.”
XAUUSD – Gold Trading Plan: Fresh Record Highs & Fibo Zone React📊 Market Context
Gold regained strong bullish momentum on Monday, surging to a new record high above 3,720 USD/oz. The Fed’s dovish outlook, signaling the possibility of two additional rate cuts this year, continues to support non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a tailwind for safe-haven demand.
🔢 Technical Analysis (H2)
Immediate Resistance / SELL Zones:
3,818.769 – Key reaction zone where sellers may defend aggressively.
3,754.890 – Secondary SELL zone reaction area for short-term pullbacks.
Mid-Level Support / BUY Zone:
3,694.521 – First key area to watch for dips and potential buy reactions.
3,660.130 – Stronger support level if price pulls back deeper.
Major BUY Zone Reaction:
3,583.663 – Critical confluence of structure and Fibonacci support, a potential bounce zone if a major correction unfolds.
📈 Suggested Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup
BUY: Look for pullbacks to 3,694–3,660 with bullish candlestick confirmation.
Targets: 3,754 → 3,818, leave partial position open if momentum breaks higher.
Stop Loss: Below 3,645 for safer positioning.
2️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup
SELL: Enter short at 3,754–3,818 zones only with strong rejection signals.
Targets: 3,694 → 3,660, trail stops aggressively to lock profits.
3️⃣ Deep Correction Opportunity
BUY: If price flushes to 3,583–3,585, consider scaling into longs.
Targets: 3,660 → 3,754, aligning with the broader uptrend.
⚠ Key Trading Notes
Expect increased volatility with Fed guidance and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Use smaller position sizes near resistance zones and employ stop-loss discipline.
Avoid mid-range entries; focus on well-defined zones for optimal risk-to-reward setups.
💬 Community Discussion
📊 Will gold sustain its rally toward 3,818 or see a deep pullback before another leg higher? Share your charts and insights below so we can compare strategies!
XAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market InsightsXAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market Insights
Gold is showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations, with price consolidating around the mid-range levels. The chart highlights repeated sequences of structural breaks and shifts, indicating that liquidity has been actively swept on both the buy and sell side.
The latest market move shows a controlled decline, followed by an attempt to absorb selling pressure. Current positioning suggests the possibility of a short-term liquidity grab to the downside, which could fuel a stronger recovery leg in the sessions ahead.
The projected outlook favors a scenario where buyers regain momentum, aiming to retest the upper price zones. If this momentum develops, the market may establish a renewed upward leg in alignment with the broader bullish cycle observed across higher timeframes.
From a macro perspective, gold continues to be supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing global financial uncertainty and shifting monetary policies. This backdrop enhances the probability of gold sustaining its mid-term bullish trajectory despite temporary corrective phases.
Gold holds firm at 3,63x | Caution for Friday session🟡 XAU/USD – 19/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context
FED : Probability of a 25bps cut in October is 91.9%, while holding rates is only 8.9% → almost certain FED will continue easing.
US News : No major data today, market remains quiet.
Gold : Sharp moves in Asia session, but support 3,632 – 3,630 held strong.
Yesterday’s Buy at 3,62x delivered 200 pips , confirming this zone as a “fortress” support.
Note : Today is Friday – end of the week session, unexpected volatility may occur before the weekly close → strict risk management required.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold remains bullish, but caution is needed with end-of-week swings. Golden Harbor around 3,63x continues to be a solid anchor.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,661 – 3,663 (intraday resistance)
3,683 – 3,685 (strong OB, likely profit-taking zone)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,602 – 3,605 (FVG zone – deeper support if 3,63x breaks, waiting for strong demand)
Market Structure
After rebounding from 3,62x, Gold consolidated around 3,65x – 3,66x.
Main trend stays bullish, but needs support retest to confirm buyers’ strength.
3,66x is the pivot barrier:
• Breakout → targets 3,68x
• Rejection → retest 3,64x – 3,62x
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Entry: 3,602 – 3,605
SL: 3,588
TP: 3,629 – 3,661 – 3,683
⚡ Sell (short scalp)
Entry: 3,683 – 3,685
SL: 3,695
TP: 3,665 – 3,645
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The 3,63x fortress continues to hold, keeping the Golden ship safe on its northward journey. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,602 – 3,605) remains the main dock for sailors to gather strength. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,683 – 3,685) may raise waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . Today is Friday – the sea can shift unexpectedly, so keep the sails full but hands steady on the helm.”
FED slows down: Cuts 25bps, gold stays flat🟡 XAU/USD – 18/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED : Cut rates by 25bps as expected, hinted at 2 more cuts this year → initially supported Gold to rebound around 3,65x.
Powell turned hawkish :
• “No need to move quickly on rate cuts.”
• “Today’s cut is mainly risk-management.”
This message signaled that the FED is not fully opening the easing door → Gold fluctuated and stalled its upside momentum.
Tonight: Awaiting Jobless Claims & Philly Fed for more clarity on the FED’s path.
⏩ Captain’s Summary
Gold is supported by the rate cut, but Powell’s “braking” caused volatility.
Zone 3,663 – 3,665 has become the pivot support to determine the next move.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,684 – 3,686 (strong OB)
3,717 – 3,719 (ATH Zone – very strong, likely heavy selling)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Pivot Dock: 3,663 – 3,665 (new pivot support)
Main Harbor: 3,629 – 3,630 (BoS confluence & old sideway)
Market Structure
After breakout and profit-taking, Gold returned to test support.
3,663 – 3,665 : pivot support.
• If it holds → rebound to 3,684 – 3,717.
• If it breaks → deeper correction to 3,629.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,663 – 3,666
SL: 3,655
TP: 3,684 – 3,717
Buy Zone 2
Entry: 3,629 – 3,630
SL: 3,618
TP: 3,663 – 3,684 – 3,717
⚡ Sell (only at resistance)
Sell Zone OB
Entry: 3,684 – 3,686
SL: 3,695
TP: 3,665 – 3,645
Sell Zone ATH NEW
Entry: 3,717 – 3,719
SL: 3,727
TP: 3,706 – 3,690 – 3,675
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails caught wind as the FED cut rates, but Powell’s headwind slowed the advance. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,663 – 3,629) is the pivot dock to decide the next course. If it holds, the ship may rebound to test Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,684 – 3,719) . If it breaks, the ship will retreat deeper to gather strength. For now, Quick Boarding 🚤 should only be done at strong resistance, while the larger voyage still leans northward.”
FED countdown | Buy at support, Sell at resistanceXAU/USD – 17/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
18/09, 01:00 (US time): FED rate decision + Dot Plot → policy outlook for upcoming meetings
01:30: Powell’s speech – the key market focus
Market consensus: FED almost certain to cut -25bps. However, the -50bps scenario still exists → if it happens, it will be a “big boost” for Gold
During Asia–Europe session, Gold faced early profit-taking, dropping quickly to 3,677 – 3,675, reflecting caution ahead of the FED
⏩ Captain’s Summary
Gold is making a technical pullback before the FED.
Medium-term trend remains bullish, but patience is needed to wait for better Buy entries.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
Nearby OB: 3,693 – 3,695 (short scalp)
ATH Zone: 3,717 – 3,720 (strong resistance, potential heavy selling)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Shallow Dock: 3,656 – 3,657 (short-term)
Main Harbor: 3,629 – 3,630 (trendline confluence + old BoS)
Market Structure
Multiple BoS confirm bullish trend
Price retracing to support, likely to bounce back and test 3,693 – 3,717
Break above 3,720 → confirms new ATH
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,656 – 3,657
SL: 3,648
TP: 3,675 – 3,693 – 3,717
Buy Zone 2
Entry: 3,629 – 3,630
SL: 3,618
TP: 3,656 – 3,690 – 3,717
⚡ Sell (only at resistance)
Sell Zone OB
Entry: 3,693 – 3,695
SL: 3,705
TP: 3,690 – 3,685 - 3680 - 368x - 36xx
Sell Zone ATH
Entry: 3,717 – 3,720
SL: 3,727
TP: 3,715 – 3,710 – 3,705 - 37xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“Before the FED countdown, profit-taking waves pulled the Golden ship toward Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,656 – 3,629) .
Yet the main current still flows north, the bullish trend remains intact.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,693 – 3,720) is the big wave, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps.
Sailors must stay patient – the FED wind could be the force to propel Gold to new peaks.”
FED shaken by politics | Gold eyes new ATH🟡 XAU/USD – 16/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED & US Politics :
S. Miran elected to the FED Board but still serves as Trump’s economic advisor → concerns FED may face White House influence.
Michelle Mills elected with a narrow 48–47 margin.
Appeals Court blocked Trump from firing L. Cook, affirming FED’s independence, but raising the risk of a legal battle at the Supreme Court.
US Economy :
6:30 AM (US time): Retail Sales release – key consumer spending indicator.
Probability of a -50bps FED cut this week is down to 1.2% , nearly ruled out. FED is almost certain to deliver -25bps next week.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Politics create noise, but the macro backdrop (FED easing + weak US data) remains the tailwind supporting Gold’s journey toward new ATH.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) :
3706 – 3714 (Fibonacci resistance)
3722 – 3724 (Strong Sell Zone, potential ATH test)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) :
FVG Dock: 3666 – 3668
OB Harbor: 3643 – 3645
Strong Low: 3611 (deep support)
Market Structure :
After a series of BoS , Gold broke out of sideways EqH/EqL and surged.
Preferred scenario: retrace to FVG 3666 , then bounce toward 3714 – 3722.
If 3722 breaks successfully → confirms new ATH and extends bullish momentum.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy 1 (FVG)
Entry: 3666 – 3668
SL: 3657
TP: 3690 – 3706 – 3714 – 372x
Buy 2 (OB)
Entry: 3643 – 3645
SL: 3632
TP: 3666 – 3700 – 3714 – 372x
⚡ Sell (short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone
Entry: 3722 – 3724
SL: 3732
TP: 3714 – 3706 – 3690
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship has broken free from sideways waters and is heading toward new peaks. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3666 – 3643) is the safe dock for sailors to gather strength before sailing further. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3722 – 3724) is the big wave, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . With dovish winds from the FED, the Golden sails are set toward new ATH.”
Gold faces early selling pressure | Main trend still Buy🟡 XAU/USD – 15/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED rate cut probabilities this week :
-25bps : 96.4% (up from 89.1%).
-50bps : only 3.0% (down sharply from 10.9%).
Trump : Announced more sanctions on Russia, urged NATO to stop buying Russian oil; also emphasized “the possibility of significant FED rate cuts.”
Key event today : New York Manufacturing Index at 1:30 (US time).
⏩ Captain’s Summary : The sharp drop in -50bps expectations caused early selling pressure on Gold this morning. But overall, FED is still certain to cut rates and inflation is cooling → the bigger trend continues to favor Buy .
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) : 3665 – 3670 (Weak High & upper cap).
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) : 3623 – 3603 – 3587.
Market Structure :
On H1, Gold is moving within a tightening triangle with EqH and EqL .
Main trend stays bullish, but needs a retest of support before rallying toward 3665 – 3670.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3623 – 3625
SL: 3612
TP: 3640 – 3650 – 3660 – 3665+
Buy Zone 2 (FVG)
Entry: 3603 – 3605
SL: 3592
TP: 3620 – 3640 – 3655 – 3665
Deep Buy Zone
Entry: 3587 – 3590
SL: 3575
TP: 3610 – 3630 – 3650
⚡ Sell (short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone
Entry: 3665 – 3670
SL: 3678
TP: 3655 – 3645 – 3635 – 36xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship faces headwinds this morning as sailors reduce expectations for a -50bps cut. But the larger sail remains filled with dovish FED winds, steering the voyage north. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3623 – 3603 – 3587) is the safe dock to gather strength. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3665 – 3670) may raise waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . The main journey still favors Buy , waiting for the FED to blow more tailwind into the Golden sails.”
XAUUSD – Pennant Pattern Waiting for ConfirmationXAUUSD – Pennant Pattern Waiting for Confirmation
Hello Traders,
Gold started the week with a strong bounce of nearly 20 dollars after testing the ascending trendline. This move further confirms the Pennant Flag formation that is currently in play. The key now is to wait for a clear breakout from this structure to position trades effectively.
Bullish Scenario
A break above the upper trendline, with confirmation ideally above 3657, would signal continuation of the uptrend.
Best entry: around 3650, targeting 3680 in the short term.
Bearish Scenario
The 3627 level is critical. A breakdown below this zone, along with a close under nearby support, would validate the bearish case.
Traders can either enter directly on the break or wait for a retest around 3630 for a cleaner entry.
Downside targets could extend to 356x or even lower.
Medium-Term Buy Setup
The 3560 – 3564 zone remains an attractive area, aligning with an FVG and strong volume accumulation.
This is a medium-term buying opportunity, with stop-loss placed below 3544.
Requires larger account size (above $1000) due to wider stop distance, but offers higher reward potential while aligning with the broader bullish trend.
This is my outlook for gold today. Traders can take it as a reference and align it with their own setups.
If you trade gold regularly, you can follow me here and join my community to receive updates quickly when the price action changes.
👉 Wishing everyone a profitable and disciplined trading week with Gold.
Waiting for CPI & FED rate cut | Priority Buy at support🟡 XAU/USD – 11/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
US PPI yesterday : Wholesale prices dropped sharply, below forecasts → strengthening expectations of a FED rate cut.
FED probabilities : 100% odds for a -25bps cut next week, and even 16% of investors bet on -50bps.
Today : US CPI & Jobless Claims – key data to assess inflation & labor, determining the specific cut.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : FED will certainly cut rates, so Gold remains supported in its bullish trend. Short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment or surprises (e.g., tariff news from Trump).
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance) :
Bearish OB: 3645 – 3650 (near-term resistance)
Weak High: 3674 (target if breakout succeeds)
Golden Harbor (Support) :
Near support: 3622
FVG Dock: 3603
Bullish OB: 3581 – 3585 (strong mid-term support)
Market Structure :
H1 shows a short-term bearish BoS, retesting support.
Main trend remains bullish → possible pullback to 3622 or 3603 before rallying toward 3670+.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority with trend)
Entry 1 (FVG): 3603 – 3605
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 – 3615 – 3625 – 365x
Entry 2 (Bullish OB): 3581 – 3585
SL: 3572
TP: 3600 – 3620 – 3640
⚡ Sell (only short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3645 – 3650
SL: 3658
TP: 3635 – 3628 – 3622
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain full of wind as the FED is almost certain to cut rates. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3622 – 3603) and the deeper OB 3581 – 3585 are safe havens to follow the bullish tide. If the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3645 – 3650) , only Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps are recommended. The larger voyage still heads north, steering Gold toward new highs at 367x.”
XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Update | 15m Outlook🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Structure
On the 15-minute timeframe (M15) , price just formed a Break of Structure (BoS) above the previous accumulation zone → confirming temporary control by the Buy side.
However, the Bearish Order Block (H1 Zone) around 3655 is being tested, marking a key resistance area.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Bullish Scenario
If price holds above the OB zone 3644 – 3655 , buying pressure may continue to push the ship toward the Weak High 3674 .
Further ahead, the next destination is Storm Breaker Peak (3701 – 3708) – where strong selling reactions are expected.
📉 Captain’s Chart – Bearish Scenario
After sweeping liquidity and touching the Storm Breaker (Sell Zone) , Gold may reverse lower.
Key level to monitor: OB 3644 . If this area breaks, the market could open a deeper bearish leg.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Key Levels
Golden Harbor (Support) : 3644 – 3655 (OB retest zone)
Target (Bullish) : 3674 → 3701 – 3708
Storm Breaker (Sell Zone) : 3701 – 3708
Invalidation : Break below 3644 opens a new bearish journey
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails have just caught new wind after a BoS , showing that the captain and crew still hold a short-term advantage. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3644 – 3655) is the key dock to sustain the bullish trend. If Gold clears the Weak High 3674 , the ship may head straight to Storm Breaker 🌊 (3701 – 3708) , where reversal waves are likely to rise. While the short-term tide remains bullish, Storm Breaker still hides major risks – sailors must sail with strict risk management discipline.”
Gold Plan - Waiting for a pullback to Buy safely | New ATH ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 09/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED : The probability of a September rate cut is now almost certain, reinforcing confidence that flows will continue moving into Gold.
Dollar : Dropped to a 7-week low due to FED rate cut expectations, adding further support for Gold.
US Economic Data : No major news today, the market focus remains on interest rates.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Gold remains in a strong uptrend. However, Vincent advises waiting for a pullback into support to Buy safely , avoiding chasing price at higher levels.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) :
Quick Boarding: 3654 – 3656 (Short-term Sell scalp)
Storm Breaker Peak: 3673 – 3675 (Sell zone – potential new ATH)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) :
Buy Scalp Dock: 3615 – 3617
Main Golden Harbor: 3597 – 3599 (Strong support)
Price structure remains bullish after multiple BOS – Break of Structure. Current highs may trigger short-term profit-taking waves before Gold pulls back to Golden Harbor and then rallies toward ATH 367x .
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority with trend)
Buy Scalp: 3615 – 3617 | SL: 3598 | TP: 3620 → 3623 → 3626 → 3630 → 36xx
Main Buy Zone: 3597 – 3599 | SL: 3589 | TP: 3660 → 3663 → 3666 → 3670 → 36xx
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Only at resistance)
Sell Zone 1: 3654 – 3656 | SL: 3662 | TP: 3650 → 3647 → 3644 → 3640 → 36xx
Sell Zone 2 – Storm Breaker Peak (ATH test): 3673 – 3675 | SL: 3682 | TP: 3670 → 3667 → 3664 → 3660 → 36xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The interest rate winds from the FED continue to power the Golden sails. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3597 – 3599) is the safe haven for sailors trusting the bullish tide. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3615 – 3617) is just a short ride before the voyage resumes. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3675) may bring big waves, but it’s only suitable for technical scalps – as the main current still carries Gold toward new highs.”
GBP/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown PotentialThe GBP/USD 30-minute chart shows price moving within an ascending trendline but recently stalling near resistance around 1.3550–1.3560. The Ichimoku cloud suggests weakening bullish momentum, with price struggling to sustain above the support line.
Bearish Setup: A breakdown below the ascending trendline and cloud support around 1.3500 could trigger stronger downside pressure.
Targets: If selling momentum continues, price may test the 1.3420 and 1.3395 support levels.
Stop Loss: A safe invalidation zone lies above 1.3550–1.3560, where further upside would invalidate the bearish scenario.
🔎 Overall, GBP/USD looks vulnerable to a short-term pullback unless it reclaims strong bullish momentum above 1.3550.
Gold Trading Scenario – Start of the WeekGold Trading Scenario – Start of the Week
Hello traders,
A new week begins with gold holding above the 34xx zone, establishing a fresh value area. The current structure has already broken through major resistance levels on the higher timeframe – including trendline and H4 barriers – confirming strong bullish momentum.
The uptrend played out exactly as expected, reaching the target around 3450 (specifically 3454). Now price is seeing a mild pullback. This will only be considered a trend reversal if price breaks below 3404. Otherwise, it is just a secondary correction as per Dow theory.
Wave 5 may be complete, but the ABC structure is still unclear. For that reason, the plan is to continue with long positions in line with the trend, which increases the probability of success.
Buy zone for today: 3408–3412, an area where sellers previously failed at resistance and which was broken through the trendline on Friday.
This is my outlook for Monday, viewed from a medium-term perspective. Take it as reference, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
XAUUSD Price Action Analysis Current Market Overview
Price is trading at 3,371.67 🟢, showing bullish momentum after bouncing from the highlighted support zone (purple box).
The support zone (3,358 – 3,348) is currently holding strongly, converting old resistance into support 🔄.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone (3,358 – 3,348) 🛡️ → Price respected this area, confirming it as a demand zone.
Immediate Support: 3,358.65 🟪
Secondary Supports: 3,348.60 📉 | 3,325.99 📉 | 3,311.63 📉
📈 Bullish Scenario
If buyers maintain momentum above 3,358, price may attempt a move toward 3,380+ 🚀.
Break above 3,380 could signal continuation to new highs 📊✨.
📉 Bearish Scenario
A strong break back below 3,358 could re-test 3,348 → 3,325 → 3,311 ⬇️.
Failure to hold support may trigger deeper correction.
✅ Professional Takeaway
Market sentiment is bullish as long as price stays above 3,358 support zone 🟩.
Traders may look for buy opportunities on dips near support with targets toward 3,380 – 3,390 🎯.
Watch price reaction closely at the purple zone for confirmation before entering.
Gold (XAU/USD) Short-Term Bearish Setup1. Well-Defined Resistance Zones
Two horizontal shaded areas labeled Resistance R1 and Resistance R2 mark zones near $3,360–$3,380, where price repeatedly failed to break higher.
Trading ideas from analysts on TradingView reinforce that the immediate resistance lies around $3,364–$3,370. As long as price stays below that, sellers remain in control
TradingView
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2. Descending Channel & Bearish Momentum
The chart highlights a shift from an earlier ascending channel (green), followed by breakdown and decline — a classic reversal from bullish to bearish.
In line with this, there’s also mention of a bearish flag pattern forming on the 30-minute (M30) timeframe, offering a potential shorting opportunity
TradingView
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3. Key Support Levels & Targets
Multiple support levels annotated: Support S2 (at two levels) and Support S3, with notable levels around $3,315, $3,301–$3,302, and $3,300.
The annotated price action indicates projected declines toward those levels—especially highlighting $3,314.94, $3,301.55, and $3,300.96 as intermediate and key targets.
Ultimately, the red “High support area” below suggests a broader demand zone, perhaps around $3,280–$3,300, where stronger support may emerge.
4. Trading Plan Illustrated
White arrows depict a descending trajectory: from current levels down to each support, suggesting a sell-on-rally approach.
Blue markers denote possible bounce points for pullbacks before continuation lower.
Broader Market Context
Gold prices have recently been tracking in the $3,330–$3,350 range, facing resistance near $3,350–$3,360 and support near $3,300. Analysts caution that a break below that could push it toward $3,245 or $3,150–$3,120
TradingView
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Overall momentum has turned cautious or bearish—bearish engulfing patterns, weakening rally strength, and below-average technical indicators emphasize the risk of further declines
FXEmpire
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FXEmpire
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Weak U.S. economic indicators or dovish signals from Fed officials (like Powell) could offer brief relief rallies; but failure to reclaim resistance may extend the slide
FXEmpire
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Key Levels at a Glance
Level Type Price Range Notes
Resistance ~$3,350–$3,360+ Strong ceiling—decline confirms bearish bias
Support S1 ~$3,315–$3,320 First potential reaction zone
Support S2 ~$3,301 Intermediate target for sellers
Support S3 ~$3,300 Psychological barrier; near high support zone
High Support Area ~$3,280–$3,300 Zone where bullish buyers might regroup
Conclusion
Your chart effectively captures a short-term bearish trend in gold (XAU/USD), showing:
Failed attempts to overcome resistance near $3,360.
A bearish flag breakout signaling potential continuation downward.
Clearly plotted support targets, with bounce zones drawn out.
A visual trade plan suggesting sell-on-rallies targeting declining support levels until reaching a strong demand zone.
To succeed with this setup, traders might wait for a brief rally into one of the identified sell zones (e.g. ~$3,314 or $3,325) before entering shorts, with stop-loss placements above the resistance areas and profit objectives aligned with support levels ($3,301 or near $3,300).
EURUSD after NFPFollowing Friday’s NFP release, EURUSD flipped bearish structure. I’m now looking for a retracement into a key demand zone, where I’ll be watching for buy setups.
Until then, I’ll look for a possible sell-to-buy scenario — shorting the move down into demand, and then reassessing for bullish confirmation.
Let’s see how price reacts on Monday.
XRP/USDT Potential Reversal Zone — “Bottom Tested, Bullish!📉 Chart Analysis Summary
The divided chart indicates XRP trading between a critical support zone near $3.05–$3.09 and overhead resistance around $3.19–$3.23, forming what could be a bullish pennant or descending wedge setup on the 30-minute timeframe:
Support Zone (~$3.05–$3.09):
Price retested this level multiple times (labeled as “$$$” and “c”), clearly identifying a demand zone.
Ichimoku cloud support lies nearby, adding technical relevance to the floor.
Resistance Trendline & Green Line (~$3.19–$3.23):
A descending trendline is visible, showing lower highs and building compression.
A breakout above this resistance zone is necessary to signal bullish continuation.
Projected Path:
The schematic arrow suggests a bounce off support, followed by consolidation, and then a breakout above resistance, targeting the $3.25–$3.30+ zone and potentially higher.
🔍 Context from Recent Market Commentary
Support Holding Above $3.11–$3.15: Analysts highlight strong support around $3.11–$3.15, where institutional and retail interest appears concentrated
TradingView
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TradingView
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CoinCentral
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Resistance & Consolidation at $3.30: While XRP briefly surpassed $3.30, it encountered rejection and remains rangebound. A confirmed break beyond this level could validate the bullish carry-forward
CryptoPotato
CoinDesk
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Wave-Elliott Bull Case: Various Elliott Wave scenarios forecast targets as high as $5.25, $6.85, or even $10–$15 should Wave 5 materialize, though this depends on market strength and momentum
CoinCentral
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✅ Trading Outlook
Bullish Scenario:
Bounce off $3.05–$3.15 support.
Break above $3.23–$3.30 resistance.
Potential upside targets:
Near term: $3.30–$3.40.
Medium term: $4.64 or $5–$6, with strong case for $6.85 if momentum and on-chain demand strengthen
CryptoPotato
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TECHi
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CoinGape
+15
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Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold $3.05–$3.11 risk retest toward $2.95 or lower zones ($2.30–$2.70)
TECHi
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🧭 What to Watch
Key Level Role
$3.05–$3.11 Critical support/demand zone
$3.19–$3.23 Short‑term resistance/framing compression
~$3.30+ Confirm bullish breakout — key trigger for Wave 5 and higher targets
🧠 Overall Take
This chart is painting a classic consolidation near strong support with a visible descending upper boundary. If XRP holds the ~$3.05 zone and breaks above $3.23–$3.30 with conviction, it could initiate a bull move toward $3.40–$4.00, and potentially even $5–$6+ depending on volume and momentum.
However, breaks below $3.11 may open deeper downside risk. For many traders, this is a simple risk-reward setup: entry near the lower channel with a stop under $3.05 and initial profit targets at $3.30–$3.40.
Is a Pullback Coming or Will the Bulls Continue?Gold Faces Resistance at 3300 – Is a Pullback Coming or Will the Bulls Continue?
Market Overview: USD Gains Pressure Gold as Trade Deals Unfold
Gold has been under pressure recently due to the strong recovery of the US dollar. Positive developments in global trade talks and agreements between major nations, including the US, have been a key driver for the USD, which in turn has weighed on gold.
US inflation data continues to show signs of easing, providing the Fed more room to hold off on rate hikes, strengthening the USD.
FOMC meeting minutes due this week will provide further insight into the Fed’s approach to interest rates.
With geopolitical tensions easing and trade deals stabilizing, the demand for safe-haven assets like gold is slightly reduced.
In the short-term, the market is testing crucial levels, and while gold remains bullish in the long run, the current market conditions suggest potential for a pullback before further upside.
Technical Analysis: Gold in a Range-Bound Market
Looking at the H1 timeframe, gold has formed a clear downward channel between 3360 and 3290, which could signal further corrective action if the price remains within this range. If gold fails to break above resistance at 3360, a dip to 3250 might occur, especially if the USD strength continues to put pressure on gold.
However, waiting for confirmation patterns before entering a trade is key. False breakouts can be a risk when price moves quickly through key levels without sustaining momentum.
Buy Bias in Short-Term with Caution on Bearish Moves
Given the current market structure, there is more room for buy opportunities than for selling at the moment. Watch out for a potential bounce back in the 3320-3325 region as gold might test these levels before continuing its rise. The rejection wick on yesterday's D1 candle shows that the sellers are losing control, and buying pressure is starting to build again.
In the M30 chart, there's a continuation pattern forming around the 16-14 zone, which could be an ideal place to enter a buy position if it holds.
Resistance and Support Levels:
Key Resistance Levels: 3302 – 3310 – 3324 – 3335 – 3361
Key Support Levels: 3275 – 3259 – 3248
Trading Strategy – Buy and Sell Zones
BUY ZONE:
3250 – 3248
Stop Loss: 3244
Take Profit: 3254 → 3258 → 3262 → 3266 → 3270 → 3280 → ????
SELL SCALP:
3303 – 3305
Stop Loss: 3310
Take Profit: 3298 → 3294 → 3290 → 3286 → 3280 → 3270 → 3260
SELL ZONE:
3334 – 3336
Stop Loss: 3340
Take Profit: 3330 → 3326 → 3320 → 3315 → 3310 → 3305 → 3300 → ????
Key Updates to Watch: FOMC and Trade Policy News
With FOMC minutes due and trade policy developments on the horizon, it’s crucial to stay alert for any shifts in market sentiment. Ensure you stick to TP/SL levels to protect your account from any unexpected volatility.