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XAU weakens as USD risesGold prices continue to be influenced mainly by US interest rate expectations. And the stability in recent sessions reflects the lack of strong signals on the Fed's monetary policy. World gold prices plummeted as the USD continued to demonstrate its strength compared to most other currencies in the world Gold price dropped sharply mainly due to the increase in USD price. DXY index The Fed still follows the trend of delaying interest rate cuts to wait for US macro signals, especially inflation data. Investors are waiting for information about the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), expected to be announced this Friday. This is an important measure of the health of the US economy, Gold futures prices recorded modest gains at the beginning of the week, mainly due to the weakening of the USD. The USD index dropped quite sharply, contributing significantly to the rise of gold. Investors are preparing for a busy final week of the month with several important economic reports due for release.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicoTradingMaster
2
GBPUSD crosses key resistance to refresh 11-week highGBPUSD rises to the highest level since mid-March by crossing an 11-month-old descending resistance line, now immediate support near 1.2800. The bullish MACD signals and the Pound Sterling’s ability to trade successfully beyond the 100-SMA also underpin the upside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI (14) line challenges the quote’s further advances, highlighting the yearly peak marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, as the key upside hurdles. In a case where the Cable remains firmer past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be the last defense of the bears before directing buyers toward the late 2023 peak of surrounding 1.3145. Conversely, a daily closing beneath 1.2800 will defy the GBPUSD pair’s latest resistance break. The same could direct the sellers toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October 2023 downturn, near 1.2720. Even so, the Pound Sterling bears need to wait for a clear downside break of the six-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2655, as well as the 100-SMA level of 1.2635, to retake control. Should the Cable drop beneath 1.2635, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward February’s low marked around 1.2520. Overall, GBPUSD gains the buyer’s attention as it clears the key upside hurdle. However, the room toward the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Overbought RSI, 1.2810 hurdle will test GBPUSD bullsGBPUSD rises for the third consecutive day while refreshing the two-month high. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers a pullback in the US Dollar, as well as the recent hawkish commentary from the Bank of England (BoE) officials. However, the overbought RSI (14) conditions will join a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, close to 1.2810 by the press time, to test the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2810, the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, will precede the 1.3000 psychological magnet to attract the bids. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the GBPUSD pair’s July-October downside, near 1.2720, acts as immediate support to watch during a fresh pullback. Following that, April’s high near 1.2710 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2630 should lure the Pound Sterling bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the Cable pair’s bearish trend remains elusive unless witnessing a daily closing beneath a convergence of the 50-SMA and a five-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2580 as we write. Overall, the GBPUSD pair marches toward the key upside hurdle as most traders return to their desks after a long weekend in the US and the UK.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY confirms inverse head & shoulders during four-day uptrendUSDJPY rises to the highest level in a week while crossing a downward-sloping resistance line from late April, now immediate support near 156.10, amid a four-day winning streak early Tuesday. In doing so, the Yen pair confirms an inverse head and shoulders bullish chart pattern by extending the previous week’s rebound from the 200-SMA. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and an upward-sloping RSI (14) line, not overbought, also keep the pair buyers hopeful. With this, the quote approaches the mid-month peak surrounding 156.80 before challenging the monthly high of around 158.00. Following that, the 160.00 threshold, the yearly high of 160.20 and the year 1990 top of 160.40 can test the bulls during their run-up toward the theoretical target of the aforementioned inverse head and shoulders bullish formation, namely 162.50. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s retreat remains elusive unless breaking the neckline of the stated bullish chart formation, close to 156.10. In a case where the Yen pair drops beneath the 156.10 resistance-turned-support, it will defy the inverse head and shoulders and can quickly revisit the 200-SMA support of near 154.60. It should be observed, however, that the bullish bias remains intact as far as the pair stays beyond a two-month-old ascending support line, near 152.45 as we write. Overall, the USDJPY pair braces for a fresh record high while confirming a bullish chart formation. Any pullback, backed by the downbeat US data and softer yields, remains unimportant until the pair exceeds 152.45.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls need validation from 0.6720 to keep the reinsAUDUSD bulls struggle to keep command at the highest level since January as a jump in the Aussie Unemployment Rate supersedes upbeat Employment Change data from the Pacific major and challenges the previous day’s run-up. That said, the risk-barometer pair marked the biggest daily rise in six months on Thursday after softer US inflation and Retail Sales numbers drowned the US Dollar. The Aussie pair’s upside also took clues from hopes about more stimulus from China. Technically, the upbeat RSI (14) and the bullish MACD signals join the AUDUSD pair’s upside break of a four-month-old horizontal resistance, now immediate support near 0.6645-40, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early February 2023, near 0.6720 by the press time, challenges the quote’s immediate upside. Following that, the pair’s quick run-up toward the yearly high of 0.6839 and then to the late 2023 peak surrounding 0.6870 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the March 2024 peak of near 0.6665 acts as immediate support for the pair traders to watch ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support near 0.6645-40. It’s worth noting that a one-month-old rising support line of around 0.6610, quickly followed by the 0.6600 threshold, will act as the final defense of the AUDUSD buyers before giving control to the sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair remains on the bull’s radar but the pair’s further upside hinges on a daily closing beyond 0.6720.
by MTradingGlobal
USDMXN - Ready to Blast Again ? Last week, I took long position in UDMXN at 16.66000 & Closed at 16.92500 Closed that position in more that $5000 profit in just 2-3 days. My long setup is formed again in USDMXN Taking long positions here at CMP 16.67000 My SL would be 16.62000 Target I'm expecting is 17.00000 Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
Long
by akshit_official
EUR/USD: A Third Wave of an Impulse in Sight Analysis The advance from Oct. 03, 2023 low of 1.0448 to 1.1140 subdivides into five waves. This wave pattern is significant because impulse waves identify the direction of the dominant trend. Thus the five wave advance implies further buying to come that would take prices above 1.1140 as wave 3. The subsequent decline in EUR/USD is developing in three waves; Double Zigzag correction labelled ((w))-((x))-((y)) with wave ((y) in progress, supports this analysis. Counter trend price action typically consists of three waves, it's slow, choppy and often contained within parallel lines. The depth of corrective wave guideline suggests that corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most often ending near its terminus. More over, in ratio relationships, sharp corrections tend more frequently to retrace 61.8% of the previous wave particularly when they occur as wave 2 of an Impulse or wave B in a larger Zigzag. Observe that this level is near the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. Within wave 2, wave ((y)) = 0.618 X ((w)) at 1.0701. Observe that this level is near the previous guidelines. All this evidence virtually suggest that a bottom is at hand and a reversal could be around the corner. Trade Plan Entry: Buy at Market Price Protective Stop: 1.0448;in an Impulse wave 2 CAN NEVER retrace 100% of wave 1. Target: 1120 pips; in an Impulse the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the gain of the first as in; wave 1 = 692 pips (1.1140-1.0448), wave 3 = (1.618 X 692) Risk-Reward: 1:3
Long
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
2
April 2, 2024 trading strategyThe record rise in gold prices is a sign that investors are worried that the Fed will not be able to control inflation when it starts cutting interest rates. Investors should wait for a pullback before buying. Gold may return to the price of 2,150 USD and will attract a number of new investors. The upward trend of world gold prices continues as the market is witnessing that central banks of countries are selling off the USD. to buy gold. If the US job market is stronger than expected, combined with "persistent" inflation, it may force the Fed to delay the start of the monetary policy loosening cycle. This will negatively impact precious metals.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrategySherpa
XAU price today April 1, 2024 reached a historic peakCME's FedWatch probability indicator shows that there is a 62% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June. Lower interest rates often weaken the USD, making gold more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Another important factor contributing to the rise in gold prices is the continued purchase of physical gold by central banks around the world. Increased demand will directly impact prices, pushing gold prices to record highs. ECB policy planning member Francois Villeroy said that achieving the ECB's 2% inflation target is feasible. At the same time, he also warned about potential risks if the ECB does not cut interest rates. ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta hinted on Thursday that "the conditions for launching an easy monetary policy are gradually emerging." According to experts, central banks' gold purchases, impending interest rate cuts and concerns about inflation are the driving forces for gold prices to continue to increase in the short term. Bob Haberkorn, an expert at RJO Futures, said that closer to June, the market will see gold prices rise higher due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TrategySherpa
AUDJPY: Ending Diagonal Pattern; A Reversal on the Horizon.The advance from Mar 24, 2023 low of 86.06 subdivides into five waves. Notice that this price action contains overlapping waves that contract and form a wedge shape. That is the emblem of an ending diagonal which cues a swift and dramatic reversal on the horizon. According to Elliott Wave guideline, the expected reversal is projected to reach at least the point where the diagonal initiation occurred, and potentially extend beyond. In this instance, the relevant level is identified by the conclusion of wave ((b)) at 86.06. A salient attribute of ending diagonal is that all initial subwaves form either a single or multiple zigzag patterns. Waves (i), (iii), (iv) and (v) appear to be single zigzags, while wave (ii) is a double zigzag. Wave (v) often makes a throw-over (a brief break beyond the trendline connecting waves (i) and (iii) ). A throw-over suggests a diagonal has finished. Once price action pushes below the trendline connecting waves (ii) and (iv), we would have compelling proof that the diagonal has ended. The next event should be a swift move to at least 86.06 and probably beyond. The wave count is not the sole basis for considering a short position. Beyond what is illustrated, there has been a divergence in prices and MACD since June 16, 2023, suggesting a diminishing upward momentum and indicating a weakening uptrend. Despite new highs in prices on November 16, 2023 and February 21, 2024, MACD did not follow suit. This bearish divergence frequently foreshadows a potential downturn in prices. (Insert MACD on your chart and draw a trendline connecting the highs) Trading Plan Entry: Sell above wave (iii) high. Protective Stop: 100.95; the price level at which wave (v) would be longer than wave (iii), which would render our diagonal scenario invalid. As a rule, within a contracting ending diagonal, wave three is always shorter than wave one, and wave five is always shorter than wave three. Target: 86.06 and below Risk-Reward: 1:5
Short
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast