News of geopolitical instability still existsGold prices continued to increase in the early trading sessions of the week thanks to escalating tensions in the war in the Middle East.
Gold experienced a steady rise near the weekend thanks to geopolitical tensions and weakness in the US dollar. The coordinated attack between the US and UK on the Houthi rebels in Yemen in recent days has made the market concerned that the war situation may gradually get worse.
In addition, US government bond yields have also decreased slightly in the past month as the market continues to expect the Fed to cut interest rates in the near future.
Forextrading
Gold price approaches important resistance levelGold price, after overcoming the resistance zone at $2,050/oz, continued to increase in the trading session after the Christmas holiday to $2,065/oz, thanks to the weakness of the US dollar.
This week, gold prices will likely stabilize around current levels, due to the lack of important economic data. However, if the war situation in the Red Sea continues to escalate, gold prices may continue to increase sharply.
Gold Price Looks for UPTREND
* Gold Price Movement: Gold prices are uncertain and fluctuating.
* Upcoming Data Release: The market is waiting for the US core PCE price index data for November.
* Fed Bostic's View: Atlanta Fed President Bostic sees no urgency for interest-rate cuts, emphasizing the strength of the US economy.
* Fed Barkin's Approach: Fed's Barkin is data-dependent for rate cuts in 2024.
* Current Gold Price: Gold is trading around $2,040.
* Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation is expected to soften with higher interest rates by the Fed.
* Investor Optimism: Investors are optimistic about future rate cuts in 2024, despite warnings from the Fed about maintaining restrictive interest rates.
* Divergence in Projections: Bostic's view contrasts with the median projection of three rate cuts, creating uncertainty in the market.
Gold Outlook 2024:Analyzing Bullish Trends, Key Resistance LevelBullish Bias:
Weekly chart indicates a bullish bias for Gold.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) comfortably above 50.
RSI-based 20-period Moving Average provides additional support.
XAU/USD remains within the upper half of a long-term ascending regression channel.
Key Levels:
Interim resistance at $2,060 with 61.8% Fibonacci trend-based extension.
Confirmation of support at this level could lead to a test of $2,125-$2,150.
Potential profit-taking in this range may temporarily impede the uptrend.
Further bullish targets at $2,200 and $2,440 based on Fibonacci extensions.
Sustaining above $2,200 is crucial for continued buyer interest.
Downside Support:
Strong support at $1,960-$1,950, including the 20-week SMA, 50-week SMA, and mid-point of the ascending regression channel.
Failure at this support could lead to a decline to $1,880 (100-week SMA) and $1,850 (200-week SMA).
Weekly close below $1,850 may attract additional sellers, opening the door for a move toward $1,800 (lower limit of the ascending regression channel).
Summary:
Gold is bullish with potential resistance at $2,060 and further targets at $2,125-$2,150, $2,200, and $2,440. Strong support is seen at $1,960-$1,950, and a failure could trigger a decline towards $1,880 and $1,850, with $1,800 as a lower limit.
Investors should monitor key levels for potential trend continuation or reversal, and the sustainability of support and resistance levels is crucial for determining the next directional move in the Gold market.
recovery after sharp decline of XAUafter the US Federal Reserve signaled interest rate cuts are coming next year
In addition to central bank meetings, investors will likely keep an eye on the European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, starting next Thursday.
The summit comes at a critical time for Ukraine, as the Biden administration has so far failed to get a $60 billion aid package through Congress and the war against Russia is entering a skirmish brutal winter.
The Fed has recognized cooling inflation and this has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but has led to a sharp decline in bond yields and the USD. These are all factors supporting gold prices
DXY formed a downtrendThe DXY chart on the 1D frame formed a bullish leaf, but yesterday DXY had a false breakout, so it is likely that today DXY will tend to decrease, tomorrow there will be news of Non-Farm Employment Change, if the news is bad, DXY may dropped to 104.28, on the 1D chart stochastic is in the overbought area and is trending down, RSI is also trending down. On the H4 chart, stochastic is falling very strongly and so is RSI, so it is likely that DXY today will fall in the range of 106.12 - 105.68 and 105.68 also coincides with the 200 EMA, tomorrow there is news that DXY may fall to 104.28.
Gold is trending down after a recovery periodToday we will have very important USD news: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing Prices and in the early morning of November 2 there will be 3 more news: Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference but This news is likely to have a big impact on gold, so we need to pay attention to orders when the news comes out
According to technical analysis, October is a month of strong growth for gold. On the monthly chart, histogram and stochastic have a divergence, RSI does not see a divergence.
Yesterday gold broke through the upward price channel so our trend will be to sell and the H1 stochastic frame is already in the oversold area so it is likely that gold will have a rebound to 1990, the price range from 1990-1992 we can sell stochastic The H4 frame still tends to go down, so the possibility of gold decreasing is very large
XAUUSD : XAUUSD trading strategy today Currently, gold is still fully above the H4 framework price increase channel. Unless gold breaks out of the upward price channel, the trend for gold will still be up. Conversely, if gold breaks out of an upward price channel, the trend will be bearish. On the daily chart, the histogram is still rising and no such deviation is seen on the daily chart. Even though the stochastic has been in overbought territory for a long time and the RSI is in overbought territory, gold is still likely to move higher. There are signs that gold is not going down. On the H4 chart, the histogram starts to get shorter. Stochastic has moved out of overbought territory. Gold is very likely to have a correction rhythm in the coming days and then accumulate and move higher. There is some news today, but it doesn't have much of an impact on gold, gold could fall to the 1991-1986 range, buy in that range and limit your losses from 1985-1984. can. Currently, gold is moving sideways around his 2004 to his 1989 . We can still surf.
Global Markets Face DownturnGlobal markets are experiencing a decline, with early indications suggesting that Wall Street may open lower. The Dow futures are down 129.00 points, the S&P 500 futures are declining by 19.50 points, and the Nasdaq 100 futures are sliding by 82.75 points as of 8:00 am ET.
On Monday, the major US stock indexes mostly finished higher, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 inching up slightly, and the Dow slipping by 0.2 percent.
Today, the Labor Department will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for August, which could be a significant event. The consensus is for 8.75 million job openings, slightly lower than July's figure.
Asian stocks also fell sharply today, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index tumbling by 2.69 percent. Chinese markets remained closed for the holidays, and Japanese shares also declined.
Australian markets dropped after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates steady but highlighted the possibility of further policy tightening to control inflation.
European shares are also trading negatively, with France's CAC 40, Germany's DAX, England's FTSE 100, and the Swiss Market Index all declining. The Euro Stoxx 50, which represents leading companies in the Eurozone, is also down.
Additionally, there will be a 52-week Treasury bill auction held later today.
Possible long in EUR/CADThe pair is bouncing from the support. This is a key pivot level which has been tested several times in the past. The momentum oscillators are also showing a slight positive divergence. Longs have a clear risk management below the support level and we can see a substantial rally from this level.
Make Money with USDJPYHello Everyone
Here is another update from Trading Idea, few days back we have provided forecast of upcoming bullish cycle in USDJPY, so this is just the update of counts of cycle.
If you like the idea, than kindly boost and share it with others and help us.
Also if you have any query than don't hesitate to ask us.
This is the actual Forecast. on 2/08/20223.
USD/JPY buy idea sharingBased on the information provided, you are planning to enter a trade in the USD/JPY currency pair. Here's an explanation of the trade for publishing:
Trade Details:
- Symbol: USD/JPY
- Entry Price: 139.690
- Target Prices: 139.842 and 140.001
- Stop Loss: 139.582
Rationale for Entering the Trade:
You have decided to enter this trade based on two factors: support at 139.5 and a potential trendline breakout.
1. Support at 139.5:
You believe that the exchange rate of USD/JPY has reached a level of support at 139.5. Support is a price level at which buying pressure is expected to outweigh selling pressure, potentially leading to a price reversal or a bounce. By entering the trade near this support level, you anticipate that the price will move in a favorable direction.
2. Trendline Breakout:
Additionally, you have observed a trendline on the price chart of USD/JPY, and you expect a potential breakout to occur. A trendline is a line that connects consecutive higher lows or lower highs, indicating the direction of the prevailing trend. A breakout refers to a situation where the price moves beyond the trendline, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment and the continuation of a new trend. Based on your analysis, you believe that the price is likely to break out above the trendline, which has influenced your decision to enter the trade.
Trade Parameters:
- Entry Price: You plan to enter the trade at 139.690, which means you will buy USD/JPY at this exchange rate.
- Target Prices: You have set two target prices for this trade. The first target is 139.842, and the second target is 140.001. These levels represent your profit-taking points, where you aim to sell the USD/JPY and realize gains.
- Stop Loss: To manage potential losses, you have implemented a stop loss order at 139.582. If the price reaches this level, your trade will be automatically closed to limit your downside risk.
Please note that trading involves risks, and this trade should be evaluated in the context of your own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market conditions. It's essential to conduct thorough analysis and consider other factors such as market news, economic indicators, and overall market sentiment before making trading decisions. FX:USDJPY