Nifty: September Month PredictionThe present analysis is derived from 2008 and 2011 fall and historical retracement.
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12101: The last level until nifty can rise without correction based on previous fall analysis.
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10400: If correction happens this month then nifty might test 10400 levels which is a healthy retracement of 0.618 levels of fibo.
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Retracement is imminent for a healthy economy. Higher-High and Higher-Lows are must.
Fundamental-analysis
HOW TO READ INVENTORY DATA IN CRUDE Clearly todays inventory data showed fall in reserves of inventory. So when inventory data is less it implies that lot of crude which was saved up as reserves were put to use or in other words consumed.
Now I want to shift your attention to this term " PRODUCTIVITY OF A COUNTRY "
When crude is consumed like the data shows it means productivity of a country is increasing.
Productivity increasing means people are working , indicating cash flow.
THUS WHEN INVENTORY DATA IS LESS IT SHOWS THAT PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES WHICH IS WHY CRUDE RISES.
NTPC WEEKLY DEMAND NTPC WEEKLY DEMAND : Dividend - Rs 2.65 Per Share ex div 13-Aug-2020, Record date: 14-Aug-2020. meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled to be held at New Delhi on Friday, 14th August, 2020, to inter-alia, consider, approve and take on record the Un-audited Financial Results of the Company for the quarter ended June 30, 2020 . The stock might trade less values in coming days, post dividend.
Bandhan Bank - RBI Effect BetRBI's loan restructuring for MSME may have a positive effect on Bandhan Bank's price. ( Or opposite Jumla! but I won't take short trades tomorrow).
Positional Ideas:
Buy above 308.8 for 313, 315.5, 320, 330 with SL at 303 (I would take these only - explained above)
Sell below 295 with for 285 with 5 point trailing SL
Quote-
Typically a loan restructuring allows a borrower some flexibility in terms of extension of the period of loan EMI, interest payment so as to help the borrower buy more time to pay off his loan to the lender. Loan restructuring helps the lender to save on higher provisioning as otherwise, banks have to make higher provisions on default or a non-performing asset (NPA) which impacts their profitability.
From the NBFC space, Shriram City union finance has high exposure to SME/MSME book at 57%, MAS Financial has 65% exposure to SME/MSME book, Bajaj Finance 13%, Magma Fincorp 11.5%. Banks that have high exposure to SME/MSME/Micro book are Bandhan Bank 68%, SBI at 14%, Axis bank 11%, Indusind bank 33%, Au small finance bank 16%.
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Additionally, the large volume without substantial price movement indicate two things:
1. BTST trade - so in case of gap-up opening, ill wait for price to stabilise & Will wait for confirmation before taking long positions.
2. Late Buying Interest - Favour Long Positions more. So ill be extra careful when taking short positions.
Disclaimer:
Being an Engineer + MBA Finance, I bet on my Strong Fundamentals & analytical skills! But I am new to technical analysis & trading (3 months now). Every weekend,I study some new trading concepts and publish analysis & take trades on them. There are NOT trading advice!
The intention is to gather feedback on them, so please drop in a comment if you find areas of improvement.
& If the idea makes sense to you - please do Like to give me confidence to take trades on them.
Wait for the results for trading on MondayITC as forecasted in my previous cup breakout analysis is in a historical price value area between 194 and 203.
Depending on how the results are vis-a-vis expectations of the market movers (MF, banks, investors); the breakout may happen in either direction or a side-ways movement.
For breakout up; wait for a close above 206
Fore breakout below; wait for a close below 190.
The value area is open for scalping.
PVR - 10%+ if you shortVery strong resistance.
High volume bars.
Nifty also going in bear zone.
Malls are far from opening
Limited new movie releases.
Fundamentally and also technically - this stock will go down as fast as it has come up.
I am expecting this to give 10%+ return in coming week if you go short.
Buying opportunity......Chinese Double bottom formation !!Ticks :
1) Chinese double bottom formation.
2) volume conformation.
3) Range breakout.
4) Lockdown is getting over periodically.
5) High MF and Fii holding.
6) Fundamentally sound stock.
Buy : current level
Targets: 1038 (short term)
** Can look out for long term also.