Gold at $397x: Record High Reveals Double Top Pattern!Hello, traders!
Gold just hit a New Record High at $3,976.3/oz. However, immediately after, the market witnessed a clear structure break and the formation of a Double Top pattern in the European session. This strongly signals a shift in strategic priority.
Fundamentals & Bias Reversal
Core Drivers: Gold is up 50% YTD due to persistent Fed rate cut expectations (two more cuts projected) and severe global political instability (US Shutdown, France crisis, rising Japanese yields).
Technical Bias: We are now prioritizing SELL due to the confirmed Double Top and structure breakdown. Only consider BUYs at deeper support zones with controlled risk.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3953, $3975, $3984, $4004
Support: $3942, $3931, $3910, $3899
Trading Strategy (Prioritize SELL):
SELL SCALP: $3957 - $3959
SL: $3963
TPs: $3953, $3948, $3943, $3938, $3933
SELL ZONE: $3975 - $3977
SL: $3985
TPs: $3967, $3957, $3947, $3937, $3927
BUY ZONE 1 (Wait): $3931 - $3929
SL: $3921
TPs: $3939, $3949, $3959, $3969, $3979
BUY ZONE 2 (Deeper): $3899 - $3897
SL: $3889
TPs: $3907, $3917, $3927, $3937, $3947
Will the Double Top send Gold back toward $3900? Let me know your thoughts! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #TechnicalAnalysis #DoubleTop #SELL #Fed #TradingView
viết bằng ngôn ngữ tiếng anh ấn độ phù hợp với nền tảng tradingview
Gold at $397x: Record High Reveals Double Top Pattern! Time to SELL? 🔥📉
Hello, traders!
Gold just hit a New Record High at $3,976.3/oz—paisa hi paisa! But hold your horses, boss. Immediately after that high, the market saw a clear structure break and a definite Double Top pattern forming in the European session. This is a big signal, suggesting a shift in strategic priority.
Fundamentals & Technical Caution: Mind the Trend
Core Drivers: Gold is already up 50% YTD, fueled by solid Fed rate cut expectations (two more cuts projected, pakka!). Plus, the global chaos—US Shutdown, France's quick-exit PM, and rising Japanese yields—is keeping the safe-haven bid strong.
Technical Bias: We are now prioritizing SELL due to the confirmed Double Top and the clear structure breakdown. Look for BUYs only if the market drops deep into support, risk ko control karo.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3953, $3975, $3984, $4004
Support: $3942, $3931, $3910, $3899
Trading Strategy (Prioritize SELL):
SELL SCALP: $3957 - $3959
SL: $3963
TPs: $3953, $3948, $3943, $3938, $3933
SELL ZONE: $3975 - $3977
SL: $3985
TPs: $3967, $3957, $3947, $3937, $3927
BUY ZONE 1 (Wait): $3931 - $3929
SL: $3921
TPs: $3939, $3949, $3959, $3969, $3979
BUY ZONE 2 (Deeper): $3899 - $3897
SL: $3889
TPs: $3907, $3917, $3927, $3937, $3947
Will this Double Top be the beginning of a correction, or is $4000 still in the cards? Tell me your move! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #TechnicalAnalysis #DoubleTop #SELL #Fed #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
Fundamental Analysis
HAL Price ActionHindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) opened the day strong, continuing its upward momentum from the previous sessions. The stock traded above key moving averages, indicating sustained bullish sentiment. Early in the session, the price held above recent swing lows, and mild intraday retracements provided support zones for buyers.
On the technical side, HAL maintains a higher-high, higher-low structure on the daily chart, signifying that buyers are still in control. Volumes are stable, and no signs of distribution are visible so far. If the price sustains above the short-term support near recent intraday lows, further upward movement is likely. Any breakdown below immediate support could trigger a short-term pullback; however, medium-term outlook remains positive as long as the price holds above its last consolidation base.
LiamTrading – Risk of correction before hitting the $4000 mark? LiamTrading – GOLD: Risk of correction before hitting the $4000 mark?
Hello everyone,
Gold is approaching the psychological price zone of $4000/oz, but before reaching this historic milestone, the market may be preparing for a short-term correction.
According to Bank of America's technical strategist – Paul Ciana, gold's upward momentum is “too hot,” and a mid-cycle correction could occur soon.
📉 Technical Analysis (Chart H1 – Wolfe Waves Formation)
Observing the chart, a Wolfe Waves pattern is clearly forming:
The Sell zone 3988–3990 is the convergence point of wave number 5 – a potential short-term reversal zone.
The Buy zone 3963–3965 is the retest point of local support, where sellers often tend to take short-term profits.
The Wolfe trend line indicates the possibility that the price will take liquidity above the peak zone before a corrective decline appears.
If a correction occurs, the 3940–3955 zone will be the first reaction area, where strong buying support is present.
🎯 Trading Scenario
Buy retest:
📍 3963–3965
🛑 SL: 3960
🎯 TP: 3972 – 3985 – 4000
Sell following Wolfe wave:
📍 3988–3990
🛑 SL: 3995
🎯 TP: 3972 – 3955 – 3945
🧭 Medium-term Outlook
Although the upward momentum remains dominant, the momentum is gradually decreasing and the market needs to “cool down” to create a new accumulation rhythm.
Dense liquidity zones around POC 3957–3960 may trigger a short-term pullback, before gold gains momentum to advance to the ATH zone of $4000 in the late-week sessions.
📌 Conclusion
Gold remains in a medium-term uptrend, but a short correction is necessary to maintain a sustainable upward structure.
Traders should prioritize flexible scalping, observing reactions at Fibo zones – Volume Profile – and especially the developing Wolfe Waves pattern.
I will continue to update the latest scenario details for XAUUSD daily.
👉 Follow me to not miss important wave rhythms!
COCHINSHIP Price ActionCOCHINSHIP exhibited steady price action today, maintaining a balanced trading range through most sessions. After opening with an initial minor uptick, the stock displayed mild volatility, oscillating within a narrow band and avoiding any sharp declines. Resistance was noted near recent highs, with persistent supply seen above that level, while dips found buyers at established support zones. Volume activity remained moderate, neither confirming nor rejecting direction bias. The intraday candlestick structure suggested a neutral to mildly bullish undertone, backed by consistent demand at lower bands. Overall, price sentiment favored gradual accumulation rather than aggressive breakout or reversal characteristics.
Gold Hits $394x! New ATH: Fed & BoJ Drive the Rally.Hello, traders!
Gold (XAU/USD) has just delivered a massive breakthrough in the Asian session, setting a New ATH around $394x after comfortably breaching that $3900 level. This strength, bhai, is getting serious support from two big monetary policy moves: Fed rate cut expectations and the likelihood of the BoJ (Bank of Japan) delaying rate hikes due to the new PM. Paisa hi paisa!
Fundamentals & Technical Caution: Mind the FOMO
Dual Drivers: Market sentiment is clear—the Fed is expected to cut rates two more times, and the dovish BoJ outlook only adds more fuel, creating a rock-solid foundation for Gold.
Safe-Haven: The continuous US Shutdown drama and geopolitical tensions are keeping that safe-haven bid strong.
FOMO Warning: The momentum is fierce, but you must avoid buying the high. Prioritize Buying on pullbacks to FVG (Fair Value Gaps) to secure a safer entry point. Discipline is key, boss.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3954, $3963
Support: $3910, $3895, $3883, $3870
Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management):
BUY SCALP: $3910 - $3908
SL: $3904
TPs: $3918, $3928, $3938, $3948, $3958
BUY ZONE (FVG): $3895 - $3893
SL: $3885
TPs: $3903, $3913, $3923, $3933, $3943
SELL ZONE (High Risk): $3964 - $3966
SL: $3974
TPs: $3956, $3946, $3936, $3926, $3916
Are you placing your bets on a $4000 target this week? Let me know your plan! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Fed #BoJ #Shutdown #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldFever
LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark: The upward wave continues
Hello everyone,
Gold continues to maintain its impressive upward momentum as the DXY only slightly increases by 0.50% and is currently at 98.21 – a signal indicating that safe-haven flows still prioritise precious metals.
Currently, the technical structure on H1 shows gold is in a clear upward channel, with price reaction zones accurately identified through Fibonacci and trendline, aiming for the next major target of $4000/oz.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1)
Main Trend: Strong upward, Higher High – Higher Low structure remains intact
Main Support Zone: around 3890 – 3900, coinciding with Fibo 1.0 confluence + upward trendline
Psychological Resistance Zone: 3955 – 3999, corresponding to Fibo extension 2.0 – 3.6
RSI is moving into the 70+ zone, reflecting strong buying force but short-term correction signs need to be observed.
🎯 Today's Trading Scenarios
Buy scalping
📍 3909 – 3911
🛑 SL: 3904
🎯 TP: 3940 – 3955 – 3970 – 3990
Buy swing
📍 3888 – 3890
🛑 SL: 3882
🎯 TP: 3910 – 3925 – 3950 – 3975 – 3990
Sell scalping
📍 3956 – 3958
🛑 SL: 3964
🎯 TP: 3935 – 3910 – 3890
Sell swing
📍 3997 – 3999
🛑 SL: 4010
🎯 TP: 3975 – 3950 – 3925
🧭 Trend Analysis
With the current upward force and stable technical structure, the $4000 target is entirely feasible in the short term.
The preferred strategy is to BUY with the trend, watch for pullbacks to optimise entry, and avoid FOMO at the peak.
Adjustments to the support zone 3890–3900 will be a beautiful opportunity to open buy positions.
💡 I will continue to update detailed reaction zones & new plans in each session.
Follow me for the earliest updates on daily gold scenarios!
New ATH: Shutdown Fuels Gold's Seventh Straight WinHello, traders!
Gold just sealed its seventh consecutive weekly gain, boss, with futures hitting a whopping $3,908.9/oz. This rally is powered by growing tension over the US Government Shutdown and the solid expectation of a Fed rate cut (97% chance in October, no less!).
Fundamentals & Outlook: Pure Safe-Haven Rally
Political Instability: The prolonged Shutdown is a proper bullish driver now. It's delaying key economic reports, creating huge uncertainty, and attracting big safe-haven capital flows.
Rate Cut Certainty: The market is absolutely banking on a Fed rate cut, giving massive support to non-yielding Gold.
Technicals & Trading Strategy: Focus on $3867
The weekly buying power is super strong. Gold is holding steady near the $3900 mark. The $3867 level is our critical line, bhai; if the price stays above it, the potential for new ATHs remains very high.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3902, $3912, $3922, $3942
Support: $3867, $3855, $3839, $3792
Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management):
BUY ZONE 1: $3867 - $3865
SL: $3857
TPs: $3875, $3885, $3895, $3905, $3915
BUY ZONE 2: $3839 - $3827
SL: $3824
TPs: $3847, $3857, $3867, $3877, $3887
SELL ZONE 1: $3902 - $3904
SL: $3912
TPs: $3894, $3884, $3874, $3864
SELL ZONE 2: $3942 - $3944
SL: $3952
TPs: $3934, $3924, $3914, $3904
What's your view? Will the US political drama help Gold finally break past $3900 next week? Tell me below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Shutdown #Fed #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldRush
Heromotoco - Reversal in the making Heromotoco - Reversal in the making
Fundamental Outlook
Almost debt free D/E ratio is 0.04, High ICR (85)
PE of 19.23, IND PE is 45.12, 0.4X of Industry PE, inexpensive stock
PEG of 2.52, reasonable
ROE = 23.67%
ROCE = 31.15% , ROCE 5yrs = 25.06%
Sales growth = 8.3%, Sales Growth 5 yrs =6.94%
Profit growth = 16.06%, Profit Growth 5 yrs = 7.64%
Promoter holding at 34.74%, stable over the years
Cumulative FII/DII holding above 50%
Public holding < 10%
Very less public holding, continually decreasing, signalling strong hand holding
Technical Outlook
CMP : 4234
On Weekly charts ,
Stock has experienced a significant downtrend and seems to be bouncing off 3500-3600 levels
RSI(weekly)=53
On daily charts
LTP > EMA21 > EMA63 < EMA200
Relative strength and momentum on 20 day time period is improving.
RS = 99, relatively weak strength compared to Nifty 500
Momentum = 101, relatively better momentum compared to Nifty 500
RSI (daily) = 70 , overbought zone
Chart Patterns
On weekly charts ,
Stock is beginning to form a rounding bottom pattern.
Industry Outlook
Sector/Industry - Automobiles/2-3 Wheelers
Nifty auto is a leading index compared to other sectoral indices in the past 20 days.
Nifty Auto has formed a W pattern/double bottom in the recent past and is recovering appreciably.
Continuing momentum should take the Index past recovery to bullish phase
Latest Q4 Results
Mar 2025
NSE:HEROMOTOCO
QOQ
👉Revenue drops -2.83% to 9970
👉EBITDA rose 1.69% to 1441
👉EBITDA Margin rose 0.64% BPS to 14.45%
👉Net Profit rose 5.51% to 1169
👉EPS rose 4.84% to 58.06
YOY
👉Revenue rose 3.67% from 9617
👉EBITDA rose 9.17% from 1320
👉EBITDA Margin rose 0.73% BPS from 13.73%
👉Net Profit rose 23.97% from 943
👉EPS rose 24.14% from 46.77
Fundamentals
👉Stock PE is 19.23
👉Stock EPS is 218.94
👉Dividend announced of Rs.65
Growth
👉2 year Revenue CAGR is 9.46%
👉2 year Profit CAGR is 25.00%
👉2 year EPS CAGR is 24.78%
👉2 year Price CAGR is 30.29%
Disclosure 1 - Invested
Disclosure 2 - Not SEBI Registered
Disclosure 3 - This is Not investment advice. Treat it as educational
The Redoubling. BRBR: The New King of U.S. Sports Nutrition?About Redoubling
Redoubling is my own research project, which is designed to answer the following question: How long will it take me to double my capital? Each article will focus on a different company that I've added to my model portfolio. I'll use the close price of the last daily candle on the day the article is published as the trade price. I'll make all my decisions based on fundamental analysis. Furthermore, I'm not going to use leverage in my calculations, but I'll reduce my capital by the amount of commissions (0.1% per trade) and taxes (20% capital gains and 25% dividend). To find out the current price of the company's shares, just click the Play button on the chart. But please use this stuff only for educational purposes. Just so you know, this isn't investment advice.
Below’s a detailed overview of BellRing Brands, Inc. (ticker: BRBR )
1. Main areas of activity
BellRing Brands is a consumer nutrition company focused on the “convenient nutrition” category. It markets protein‑based products (ready‑to‑drink shakes, powders, and nutrition bars) under key brands such as Premier Protein, Dymatize, and PowerBar. BellRing operates as a holding company structure overseeing these brand businesses and focuses on scaling distribution, penetration, and innovation in nutrition.
2. Business model
BellRing generates revenue by selling its nutrition products (shakes, powders, bars) through multiple channels (e.g., club, mass retail, e‑commerce, convenience, specialty) in the U.S. and internationally. Its model is largely B2C (business to consumers) via retail and direct channels, but it also relies on partnerships with retailers, distributors, and co‑manufacturers to handle production, contract manufacturing, logistics, and shelf space. BellRing also invests in marketing, brand building, and household penetration to drive repeat purchases and buy rate growth.
3. Flagship products or services
BellRing’s main brands and product lines are:
Premier Protein : its flagship brand, offering ready-to-drink protein shakes, powder versions, and refreshing protein beverages. It is the largest contributor in their portfolio.
Dymatize : positioned more toward sports nutrition / performance protein powders and related products.
PowerBar : a legacy nutrition bar brand, serving more as an international / cross‑category extension.
4. Key countries for business
While BellRing’s primary market is the United States, the company is working to expand its international presence. Dymatize’s international growth is cited as a positive driver. The PowerBar brand, too, has reach in over 35 international markets, particularly in Europe. That said, BellRing is often characterized as a “pure-play U.S. nutrition company” with ambitions to globalize further. Given that most of its distribution and consumer footprint is U.S.-centric, domestic retail, e‑commerce, and convenience channels are especially critical.
5. Main competitors
BellRing competes in the broader food, beverage, and nutrition space. Key competitive and peer companies include:
Medifast, Inc. (nutrition / diet & wellness products).
Large consumer goods and beverage companies like Coca-Cola, Unilever, Keurig Dr Pepper, Hershey (via beverage / nutrition arms).
Specialty nutrition / supplement companies in protein, health / wellness space.
According to Craft, competitors include Amy’s Kitchen and others in adjacent nutrition / food segments.
In more aggregate industry comparisons, BellRing is grouped with food processing and consumer non‑cyclical peers.
6. External and internal factors contributing to profit growth
External factors
Macro trends toward health, wellness, and functional nutrition: As consumers increasingly seek products with protein, clean labeling, convenience, and functional benefits, BellRing is well positioned to capture demand.
Low penetration in key product segments: The company notes that shakes as a segment still have relatively low household penetration (e.g., 48% in some tracked channels), implying room for growth.
Distribution expansion and new channels (e‑commerce, convenience): Growth across untracked channels, international sales, and digital platforms can expand reach.
Commodity cycles and input cost declines: Favorable raw material or input cost trends (or hedges) may improve margins. In Q4 2024, the company cited net input cost deflation as contributing to higher margins.
Internal factors
Brand strength and household penetration growth: Premier Protein has seen strong gains in penetration, which supports recurring demand.
Supply and manufacturing scale-up: BellRing has built out co‑manufacturing networks and increased shake supply to remove constraints.
Operational efficiency and margin expansion: The company uses cost discipline, procurement, production fees (e.g. attainment fees), and hedging strategies.
Share repurchase programs: The company actively buys back shares to return capital and support per‑share earnings growth.
Product innovation and extensions: New product launches under the nutrition umbrella can drive incremental volume and revenue.
7. External and internal factors contributing to profit decline
External threats
Intense competition and market saturation: The nutrition / functional beverage space is crowded, with many well-capitalized incumbents. Loss of shelf space or promotional pressure could erode margins.
Retailer power and inventory cuts: In Q3 2025, BellRing disclosed that major retailers cut weeks of supply, expected to create a growth headwind.
Input cost inflation and commodity volatility: Rising costs or unfavorable mark-to-market hedging could compress margins.
Regulatory, labeling, or health claims risks: In food, beverage and nutrition sectors, regulatory changes around supplements, health claims, or labeling could impose costs.
Legal / litigation exposure: BellRing disclosed a $90 million class‑wide settlement related to past litigation (Joint Juice).
Internal weaknesses
Overdependence on core brands / product categories: If Premier Protein underperforms, the company’s revenue concentration could pose risk.
Operational execution risks: Scaling manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, quality control failures, or missteps in marketing could hurt growth.
Legal reserves / unexpected provisions: The provision for legal matters in Q3 2025 hit results, dragging operating profit.
8. Stability of management
Executive changes in the past 5 years
Darcy Horn Davenport serves as President & CEO and is on the board. She previously led Post’s Active Nutrition business before BellRing was spun off.
Paul Rode is CFO, with long experience in the nutrition business and prior roles at Post, including serving as CFO of Post’s Active Nutrition.
On July 30, 2025, BellRing announced that Elliot H. Stein, Jr. will resign from the Board effective September 30, 2026. Concurrently, Thomas P. Erickson was appointed lead independent director, Shawn W. Conway became Chair of the Compensation & Governance Committee, and Jennifer Kuperman joined the Executive Committee.
These changes are described as governance/committee reassignments rather than executive turnovers.
Impact on corporate strategy / culture
The management team appears relatively stable at the top, with no major CEO or CFO turnover recently. The board changes seem more about committee roles and succession planning rather than a radical shift. Under Davenport’s leadership, the company has executed aggressive growth, brand penetration, and supply expansion strategies, suggesting continuity and alignment between management and strategy. The board adjustments are intended to facilitate smooth continuity rather than disrupt direction, which may support investor confidence.
Why did I add this company to my model portfolio?
I took a look at the company's basics, and it seems like earnings per share aren't growing right now, but total revenue is growing steadily over time. This, combined with a low debt-to-revenue ratio and steady operating, investing, and financing cash flows, gives the balance sheet a good foundation. Some other things to note are that return on equity and gross margin are growing steadily, the current ratio is strong, and interest coverage is excellent. All of these things show that liquidity and solvency are solid. With a P/E of 20.36, I think the valuation is interesting given these fundamentals and consistent with a balanced growth profile.
I didn't find any major news that could threaten the company's stability or lead to insolvency. Considering a diversification coefficient of 20 and an observed deviation of the current stock price from its annual average by more than 16 EPS, I decided to allocate 15% of my capital to this company at the close price of the last daily bar.
Portfolio overview
Below are screenshots from TradingView's Portfolios tool. I used $100,000 as my initial capital for the model portfolio. I will update these screenshots as I add new trades.
Adani Greens Date 05.10.2025
Adani Greens
Timeframe : Day Chart
Technical :
(1) 250 days of consolidation in 2023 + 200 ema breakout, 100% upside
(2) 250 days of consolidation in 2025 + 200 ema breakout, has good potential for upside.
Fundamental :
(1) India’s largest and one of the leading renewable energy companies in the world
(2) Delivered good profit growth of 127% CAGR over last 5 years
(3) Debtor days have improved from 68.9 to 50.1 days.
(4) Promoter holding has increased by 0.97% over last quarter.
Operational Capacity Mix:
(1) Solar: 71%
(2) Wind: 13%
(3) Hybrid: 16%
Operational Metrics:
Power Generation Volumes (MU):
(1) Solar: 16,738
(2) Wind: 3,834
(3) Hybrid: 7,397
Average Realization (Rs/kWh):
(1) Solar: 3.65
(2) Wind: 3.45
(3) Hybrid: 2.80
Debt
The total debt has increased from Rs. 64,858 Cr in FY24 to Rs. 80,040 Cr in FY25
Regards,
Ankur Singh
LiamTrading – GOLD Weekly Plan ..GOLD Weekly Plan: Prepare for a Breakthrough to a New ATH
The new trading week opens with extremely complex sentiments — many traders are confused, and even the “big players” are cautious.
But if you look closely at the price structure, everything becomes clear: gold is still in a sustainable uptrend.
🧠 Psychological & Trend Analysis
Gold has just closed the week with a strong upward momentum, confirming the continuation of the medium-term uptrend.
At this stage, “Selling at the peak” is almost a dangerous move – as each correction is shallow and quick, not allowing sellers enough time to exit.
This creates a strong “fear of missing out” (FOMO) sentiment – driving funds to continue pouring in when the price hits the trendline or technical retracement zones.
📊 Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart, the upward structure of gold is clearly visible following the impulse + correction box pattern (each accumulation – breakout repeats).
The 3820–3830 zone continues to be the “golden retracement point” as it coincides with the medium-term uptrend line.
Last week's bounce from this zone brought excellent profits for those who patiently waited.
Currently, the next target for gold lies at the Fibonacci 1.618 zone – around 3980, which is also a significant psychological level where many investors might take profits.
🎯 Trading Scenario
Buy setup (trend-following):
Entry: 3830
Stoploss: 3815
Take Profit: 3980
Sell reaction (short-term upon reaching target):
Entry: around 3980
Stoploss: 3988
TP open depending on price reaction (scalping strategy)
🔍 Conclusion
Gold is still on the right growth trajectory, with short corrections merely opportunities to “accumulate”.
Continue trading with the trend, patiently waiting for the price to retrace to strong confluence zones instead of FOMO at high prices.
I will continue to share more details in daily updates here.
Follow me to not miss the latest gold scenarios.
PRECISION WIRES INDIA 🚀 PRECISION WIRES INDIA BREAKOUT ALERT ⚡
PRECWIRE just broke above the consolidation zone!
📊 Chart Highlights:
Multi-year uptrend intact since 2019
Fresh breakout above ₹195 resistance
Current: ₹208.69 (+15.18% recent move)
Volume surge confirms institutional buying
💡 Fundamental Catalysts:
₹70 crore expansion approved (copper rod capacity)
India's copper demand to grow 12% in 2025
Company leading South Asia's winding wire market
⚠️ Key Levels:
Support: ₹180-185 | Target: ₹240+
The copper wire manufacturing sector benefits from India's infrastructure boom and renewable energy push. With copper demand projected to reach 3.24 million tonnes by FY2030, PRECWIRE's expansion timing looks strategic.
Breakout + Strong fundamentals = Worth watching! 📈
#StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #CopperStocks #IndianStocks NSE:PRECWIRE
GOLD@ 3890 : Bubble Peak or Just a Pit-Stop?Pullback vs. Correction The 100th-Idea Deep Dive !!
Gold has moved almost 88% in the last two years to new records. The main drivers are falling real yield expectations with an easing bias, persistent geopolitical risk, record central bank buying and the 2025 rebound in ETF demand.
Geopolitics is shifting as Washington pushes for a Gaza ceasefire. Headlines talk about partial acceptance and ultimatums but nothing is done yet. The war premium can fade step by step though headline shocks will still remain.
Key levels:-
Resistance 3890–4000
Pullback zone 3640–3650 (5%)
Correction zone 3475–3480 (11%)
Weekly RSI stretched into high 70s and 80s → risk of mean reversion before any bigger change.
Macro gears:-
Real yields and the dollar:-
Lower real yields = higher gold. That is the key lever. As rate cuts and softer real rates were priced into 2025, gold repriced hard.
Central bank sponsorship:-
Official demand has been consistent three years in a row. 2022 at 1082t, 2023 at 1037t, 2024 at 1045t. This is rare in modern data and explains why dips are shallow.
ETF flows:-
After outflows in 2024, 2025 turned. Three straight months of inflows into August, strongest since 2020, YTD around 588t. Pure fuel ✨
Geopolitics & the premium:-
From 2023 to 2025 Middle East risk kept term premia elevated. Now Gaza peace talks open a path for that premium to fade. But timelines and enforcement are unclear. Strikes still came even with peace headlines. Means the bleed can be gradual but headline spikes remain..
Pullback or true correction:-
3890–4000 is the confluence zone. Psychological milestone + vertical extension after 88% impulse. Bubble behavior meets supply.
Level 1 at 3640 → about -5% pullback. If bids hold, trend resumes.
Level 2 at 3470→ -10 to -12% wash into prior shelf. Would be first real reset in two years.
Weekly momentum overbought. Phases like this don’t end instantly but forward returns improve after reset.
Flows @ CBs rarely chase tops, they buy weakness across months. That softens drawdowns.
ETFs are flighty. Peace plus firmer yields can stall inflows. Any Fed pivot or growth wobble can flip them back fast.
Possible future paths :-
Continuation bubble :- Break 3900 → 4050–4200
Triggers dovish Fed, softer yields, failed peace, ETF flows
Tactic = only add above 3900 on daily/weekly close. No chasing wicks.
Shallow pullback :-Tag 3630–3660 then rotate
Triggers peace holds, modestly firm yields, demand returns
Tactic = scale in near 3640–3650 if H4 shows higher low + reclaim POC. First TP 3780–3820.
True correction :- flush 3520–3460
Triggers Gaza settlement + real yields higher + ETF stall
Tactic = let it wash. Look for capitulation + basing 3480–3460. Best R:R after failed bounce and reclaim.
Levels & invalidation:-
Bull continuation pivot 3890–3900. Opens 4050–4200.
Pullback buy zone 3630(Hvz)–3650 with confirmation. Invalidation H4 <3600.
Correction buy zone 3480 ±20 after basing. Invalidation weekly <3420 → opens 3300–3350.
If flat → stagger entries and size carefully.
If long from lower → trail under last daily HL, book partial 3880–3950.
Surprise risk (Imp) ETF squeeze higher – inflows still not at 2020 peak → late cycle melt-up possible.
Policy shock – faster cuts or fiscal noise sink yields = blow-off. Strong data → pop in yields = sharp air pocket.
Geopolitical whipsaw – peace unravels → $50–100 spike in thin tape!!
Bottom line:-
This is a two year vertical impulse meeting macro reality at 3890.
Level 1 = 3640–3650 pullback line.
Level 2 = 3480 correction line.
Until weekly breaks, dips are still opportunities not obituaries. But only with structure. No blind catching this high up.
Bubbles don’t end quietly – great trends reset then go again ✨
Fade euphoria into 39xx if momentum stalls. Buy fear into 348x if the market finally delivers the reset it owes.
Trade safe ⚡
Sparkrlight ♾️✨⚡
Trading Discipline – The Defining Edge of Professional TradersIn Forex and Gold trading, there is one truth every trader eventually learns: discipline matters more than strategy.
A simple system executed with discipline can deliver consistent results.
A brilliant system without discipline will collapse under pressure.
🧠 Stop-loss & Take-profit – Your Survival Tools
Stop-loss: Not surrender, but capital protection.
Take-profit: Not prediction, but securing gains before greed erodes them.
👉 Rule of pros: Set SL/TP before entering a trade – and never move them out of fear or hope.
📊 Case Study: Discipline vs Emotion
Undisciplined trader: Moves stop-loss further when price goes against him. Small loss turns into account damage.
Disciplined trader: Keeps stop-loss intact, loses 1%. Over 20 trades, system edge delivers net profits.
➡️ Lose small to win big.
🚀 Habits That Build Discipline
Have a trading plan: Entry rules – SL – TP – risk – time frame.
Use alerts: Reduce stress, stop staring at charts.
Walk away after entry: Don’t let emotions interfere.
Fixed risk: 1–2% per trade, no exceptions.
Keep a trading journal: Track not only results but emotions behind decisions.
🏆 Why Discipline Separates Pros from Amateurs
Amateurs let the market control them.
Professionals control themselves.
In the long run, success doesn’t come from one “perfect trade” but from hundreds of disciplined executions.
📈 Conclusion
The market is uncontrollable. But you can control yourself.
Discipline is the edge that:
Protects your capital.
Stabilizes your mindset.
Turns strategy into consistent results.
💡 Community Question for TradingView:
👉 “Have you ever broken your stop-loss or take-profit rules? What did it teach you about discipline?”
Gold Correction: Fed Warning vs. Massive Safe-Haven Flows Hello, traders!
Gold pulled back to $3,845.78/oz after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for caution regarding further rate cuts.
Fundamentals: Fed Warns, But the Buying Wave is Unstoppable
The market stands at a crossroads:
Downward Pressure: The caution signal from Fed's Logan.
Upward Momentum: Government shutdown (increases instability, delays jobs report), weak private sector jobs data (down 32k), and SPDR Gold Trust ETF holdings rising to the highest level since 2022.
Conclusion: Political instability and weak economic data continue to reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Massive safe-haven capital is flowing into Gold.
Technical Analysis & Strategy
Gold retreated to the FIBO 0.618 - 0.5 zone, indicating a healthy technical correction after the sharp rally. Priority remains Buy if the price holds above $3861. Be cautious of Stop Loss hunting.
Resistance: $3870, $3884, $3894
Support: $3855, $3833, $3798
Trading Strategy (Tight SL):
BUY SCALP: $3838 - $3836 / SL: $3832 / TP: $3846 - $3857
BUY ZONE: $3798 - $3796 / SL: $3788 / TP: $3816 - $3836
SELL ZONE: $3888 - $3890 / SL: $3898 / TP: $3870 - $3850
Do you think the Fed's warning is strong enough to reverse this trend? 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #GovernmentShutdown #TradingView #PhânTíchVàng #ETF
XAUUSD – Price Channel Rising Towards 4000 USD Next Week
Hello Traders,
Every day I share scenarios for you to refer to and build your own strategy. And here is the perspective for next week – as gold is in a sustainable uptrend, approaching the psychological mark of 4000 USD.
Technical Perspective
On the H4 frame, gold continues to move within a clear upward price channel.
Every time the price touches the support trendline, a strong rebound reaction appears, indicating that buying pressure still dominates.
This price channel has remained stable for many weeks, providing a basis for us to prioritise buying in line with the trend.
The target of 4000 USD is not far away, especially when the fundamental context continues to support the upward trend.
Fundamental Context
The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, creating momentum for gold.
Current US financial-economic news is limited, as the US Government remains shut down.
Geopolitical factors have somewhat cooled down, but gold still holds its position as an important safe-haven asset.
Trading Scenario
1. Buy (main priority):
Entry: 3860 – 3865 (at the rising trendline).
TP: 3960 – 4000.
SL: manage below the trendline.
2. Sell (backup if the channel breaks):
Condition: 3853 is breached.
At that point, a new trend will form and the Sell scenario will be activated.
Conclusion
Main trend: Buy in line with the rising channel, aiming for 4000 USD next week.
Sell should only be considered if there is confirmation of a break below 3853.
The market is in a critical phase, so be patient and wait for a good entry point to trade safely and effectively.
ICICI Bank: Resistance Turned Support Powers Next RallyTechnical Analysis
ICICI Bank showcases another remarkable wealth creation story spanning over two decades. The stock has delivered an extraordinary super bullish rally, transforming from ₹40 to the current trading level of ₹1,351 - representing an impressive 33.8x growth over 20+ years.
The ₹1,345-₹1,365 zone has historically acted as a strong resistance, tested multiple times. However, with the confirmation of strong FY25 results, the stock decisively broke out from this resistance zone and created a new all-time high at ₹1,500.
Following the breakout peak, the stock witnessed a sudden fall and is now trading back in the same zone at current market price of ₹1,351. This presents a critical juncture - if the earlier resistance zone transforms into support with bullish candlestick pattern confirmations, it could signal the next leg of the rally.
Entry Strategy: Enter only on confirmation of ₹1,345-₹1,365 zone acting as support with bullish patterns.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹1,400
Target 2: ₹1,450
Target 3: ₹1,500
Stop Losses:
Critical Support: ₹1,200 (crucial demand zone)
If ₹1,200 level doesn't sustain, no more expectations on this stock.
FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
Total Income: ₹1,86,331 Cr (↑ +17% YoY from ₹1,59,516 Cr; ↑ +95% from FY23 ₹95,407 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹1,30,078 Cr (↑ +31% YoY from ₹99,560 Cr; ↑ +48% from FY23 ₹87,864 Cr)
Financing Profit: ₹-32,775 Cr (Improved from ₹-14,152 Cr in FY24)
Profit Before Tax: ₹72,854 Cr (↑ +21% YoY from ₹60,434 Cr; ↑ +58% from FY23 ₹46,256 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹54,569 Cr (↑ +18% YoY from ₹46,081 Cr; ↑ +54% from FY23 ₹35,461 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹71.65 (↑ +14% YoY from ₹63.02; ↑ +47% from FY23 ₹48.74)
Fundamental Highlights
ICICI Bank delivered robust FY25 performance with 18% PAT growth to ₹54,569 crore, supported by strong 17% revenue growth. The bank announced Q4 FY25 net profit of ₹12,630 crore, marking 18% increase, and declared ₹11 per share dividend reflecting strong financial health.
Market cap stands at ₹9,71,186 crore (up 4.06% in 1 year) with total revenue reaching ₹1,90,830 crore and profit of ₹56,563 crore. Stock is trading at 3.08 times its book value, indicating reasonable valuation for quality franchise.
Asset quality continues to improve with gross NPA dropping to 1.97% in Q2FY25 from 2.48% in Q2FY24, while net NPA ratio remained healthy at 0.43% in Q1 FY25. This demonstrates effective risk management and strong credit discipline.
The bank shows strength near key support zone of 1370-1390 on daily charts, with technical indicators suggesting potential diamond pattern formation around 1380-1400 range. Analysts expect stable net interest margins and continued momentum.
Strong digital banking initiatives, expanding retail franchise, and consistent delivery of 14-18% profit growth across quarters validates the bank's operational excellence and market leadership position in private banking sector.
Conclusion
ICICI Bank's remarkable 20+ year journey from ₹40 to ₹1,500 all-time high, backed by strong FY25 fundamentals showing 18% PAT growth and ₹11 dividend, validates the sustained growth thesis. The critical ₹1,345-₹1,365 resistance-to-support transformation offers attractive entry opportunity for targeting ₹1,500 retest. Improving asset quality with 1.97% gross NPA, strong ROE profile, and digital transformation drive provide multiple growth catalysts. Key support at ₹1,200 provides risk management framework for this quality banking franchise.
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